Finding SP Targets With The Magic Formula
Checking my favorite SP Magic Formula results to find 2025 draft targets
There’s nothing magical about correlating statistics with other statistics and using that to predict the future. I guess it does kind of seem magical if you don’t know anything about statistics.
One of the first unique things I did on this blog was to invent the “Magic Formula” for hitters, where I’d look for any hitter currently with a barrel rate above 14% and a strikeout rate below 20%. Those would tend to be elite hitters, so any time we would find a surprising name popping up like that for a month-long sample or so, we’d be on our way to finding a breakout. That has proved pretty useful in the fantasy game, especially in-season when picking up waiver bats.
On the pitching side, my “magic formula” is:
SwStr% above 14% (league average = 12%)
Ball% below 34% (league average = 36%)
When you find a pitcher doing these two things at the same time, what you find is a guy with good stuff and good command. Since SwStr% is highly correlated with K%, and Ball% is highly correlated with BB, we aren’t far away at all from just having a K-BB% list. But this is a little more fun, and it’s a little more useful when we have smaller data samples because these two statistics are built at the pitch level, while K% and BB% are built at the plate appearance level. So, for every batter faced, you’ll get one data point going into a K-BB%, but on average, you’ll get around four data points going into SwStr% vs. Ball% (because the average pitches seen per plate appearance is around four).
The biggest win for the Magic Formula last year was us being first on Spencer Schwellenbach. We talked about it after his first few starts in the Daily Notes, and a ton of us benefited a ton from picking him up before anybody in our leagues had him on the radar.
It’s not a perfect system, but it’s a good one! Let’s dive into it.
Big Sample Qualifiers
These are the pitchers that made at least 20 starts last year and qualified. It’s going to be largely a list of studs.
There are no 2025 draft values to be found here. The cheapest name here is Jared Jones (ADP 130). I would not call Jones a value because his getting to these numbers was so much about the elite start to the year that he could not replicate in the second part of his season. Read way more about that here.
This is a vote of confidence for guys like Sonny Gray, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Grayson Rodriguez - who you don’t have to pay the ace price tag for.
Smaller Sample Qualifiers
If I drop the start minimum to 10, I don’t find any additional names. I did not expect that. If I drop it one more down to nine, Max Scherzer appears. He went for a 16% SwStr% and a 31.2% Ball% in his 42 innings. That gives us some reason to draft him (ADP 390) again in 2025. At least we think he can perform well if he does stay healthy.
Late Season Qualifiers
I never advise anyone to take second-half splits very seriously. Reducing sample size is a dangerous thing to do, and you are often misled. But let’s take a peek for the heck of it!
The new names showing up are Zack Wheeler and Reynaldo Lopez. Not much help for 2025 drafts as those guys are far from sleepers. It is good news for Lopez and his somewhat affordable 140 ADP. A lot of people will avoid him because of some of that luck stuff, but he did pitch really, really well last year - especially in the second half.
Adjusting the Criteria
I don’t pre-plan my articles; I just get an idea and start writing. I did not realize how fruitless this would be. So far I’ve given you nothing that is actionable for your drafts.
So, let’s loosen up the criteria and see which names were close to qualifying. Hopefully, we’ll find some later-round SP targets that way.
SwStr% above 13%
Ball% below 35%
Here are the results with the new names showing up highlighted in blue. It’s ugly, but I’ll write out a few names I find most interesting below.
Joe Ryan: More validation for Ryan as a strong target. I love him for WHIP, and with some home run luck, he can post a competitive ERA as well. The one question about him is the health of the shoulder. He was shut down in August, so that’s a bit of a concern.
Tanner Bibee: He’s not exactly flying under the radar with an ADP of 91 (about the same exact cost as Ryan), but he’s better than a lot of people will give him credit for.
Kutter Crawford: I’m very willing to take Crawford at his 250 ADP. He should be due for some better home run luck after giving up a ridiculously high 1.72 HR/9 on a very high 20% HR/FB.
Reid Detmers: He’s going to be a trendy pick with his post-350 ADP. His K-BB% was legitimately good in the Majors last year, and that’s reflected in his 3.77 SIERA. He got crushed on contact and gave up a ton of homers, and that’s always something that can regress positively. I would fully expect a much better 2025 season for him. That isn’t to say he’ll be start-worthy, but the upside is very, very enticing with this cheap price tag.
Yu Darvish: This is the same thing as Scherzer. The age makes it unlikely that he will go out and throw 160+ crisp innings, but he was better than you might have thought last year with that 17.3% K-BB%.
Joe Ross: He is free this year, and there’s a reason for that. He’s 31 and has been mediocre for a long time. The Phillies signed him to a one-year deal, which very likely puts him in a bullpen role. But injuries happen, and there’s a good chance Ross gets to make some starts this year. And we have to give him some credit for his solid performance for the Brewers last year in that smaller sample.
Keaton Winn: This is one of my guys. I really like Winn, and he’s another guy you can draft after pick 700. You can read my full thoughts on him here.
Some other names when we zoom in on the second half along with this looser criteria:
Brandon Pfaadt (ADP 170): He went for a 13.4% SwStr% and a 34% Ball% in the second half. He’s now made 50 starts in the Major Leagues with a solid 17.9% K-BB%. His career ERA is 5.06, but his career SIERA sits much lower at 3.86.
Bryan Woo (ADP 131): We know he’ll throw strikes. He has the highest zone rate in the league. What he did in the second half was generate a higher 13.7% SwStr% and a 21.2% K-BB% in 13 starts.
Spencer Arrighetti (ADP 222): He got absolutely trucked late in the season and cost a bunch of teams a playoff win. However, his final 11 starts show a 14.2% SwStr% and a 34.1% Ball% with a 21.4% K-BB%. You have to like that from a guy just getting his feet wet in the Majors.
Sean Manaea (ADP 175): I’m not much of a believer, but the cost isn’t what I thought it would be after his big finish to the 2024 season and his re-signing with the Mets. Over his final 14 starts, he went for a 13.7% SwStr%, a 32.6% Ball%, and a very clean 19.2% K-BB%.