Finding the Next Group of Elite Closers
Looking into the data to find elite bullpen arms that could soon develop into elite MLB closers
My offseason analysis begins! Over the next several months, I will write a bunch of pieces like this where I zoom in on a specific player type and find potential buys and sells for 2025 and beyond. As always, we’re focused on fantasy baseball, rather than talking about the MLB in general.
The best way to handle the closer position in most fantasy leagues is to react to the constantly changing scene. Closers lose their job all the time due to performance or injury, so it’s pretty easy to find a good number of saves on the waiver wire during the season.
What we’re going for here is to find these relievers that you might want to add now in dynasty or deep keeper leagues. These will be arms you can stash in your reserve with hopes they’ll eventually become a multi-year elite closer for your team. In holds leagues, even better - because they can provide value now while you wait.
What Does An Elite Closer Look Like?
When I think of the game’s most reliable closers right now, I think of these five names:
They have all been in their roles for multiple years without much in terms of bad stretches. So, what do we learn from that data? Here’s what I see:
They’re all high in Stuff+
They’re all well above a 20% K-BB%
They’re generally good at limiting homers
The fastball velocity (not pictured) is there
Notably, walks don’t matter that much by themselves. You can compensate for walks with a high strikeout rate, so that’s why we’re focused on K-BB% here rather than the two stats individually. With starting pitchers, I generally don’t want a 10% BB%, even if it comes with a 32% K%, but with relievers, it’s perfectly fine.
That sets the stage. Let’s check out some names with similar stats that could soon step into the closer role.
Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
Stuff+: 134
SwStr%: 19.7%
K-BB%: 29%
PA/HR: 69
Fastball Velo: 97.1mph
He’s been stuck behind Jhoan Duran in the bullpen, but Jax was certainly the better pitcher for the Twins in 2024. He posted a sick 2.03 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP on a 34.4% K% and a 5.4% BB% in 71 innings. He’ll be 30 at the beginning of the 2025 season, so this isn’t a guy looking at a potential 10-year role as a closer somewhere, but the shorter-term prospects are very strong. I could see him taking over the closer job for Minnesota next year and not giving it back.
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