Hitter Buy Low Targets: Season Projections vs. April Results
We look back to the season-long projections to find hitters that are most under performing relative to their preseason projection.
I like the word “therefore”. The apostle Paul uses it a ton in his New Testament epistles. He will spend a lot of time developing a truth. Explaining it, making it clear. And then he drops the word “therefore” and moves to the effect of the cause he had just laid out. It’s an extremely simple, logical, and effective way to argue a point.
So let me give it a try.
Season-long projections will predict May-September performance better than actual April results will.
~~ THEREFORE ~~
We should try to buy low on the hitters who are most underperforming their season-long projections.
Simple enough, right? I also like to do this right as the calendar turns to May. You’re still early enough in the season where randomness reigns. Small samples are everywhere; most stats haven’t fully stabilized yet. And yet, you’re far into the season where your competition has probably just about had enough of their struggling players, and they’re probably pretty confident in the guys that have put up huge numbers so far.
Buy Lows - Shallow Leagues
60%+ owned players
First off, I did some quick research on “slow starters” and located these 11 hitters who have started slow this year, but also have started slow in the last four seasons. So these are players who have much better OPS marks after April ends, which gives us some extra hope that they’ll pick it up soon.
I would say all of those names qualify as “buy lows”. I’d especially be after the guys who aren’t super old (Correa, Reynolds, Santander, Mountcastle, India, Swanson).
Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros
Projected OPS: .783
Actual OPS: .520
Do you want a short list of names with extra analysis? Or do you want a longer list with just short descriptions below the player name? Well, you are getting the latter.
Yainer Diaz has been bad early on (.284 xwOBA with an elevated 20% K%). But we don’t care about that. We aren’t looking for guys under-performing their expected metrics. We’re looking for guys under-performing their season projection. So we don’t care nearly as much about the underlying metrics today as we usually do. It might also help you know that it took until June for Yainer to really get going last year. He hit just three homers and posted a .686 OPS prior to June last year. After June began, he posted an .830 OPS with 13 homers in those four months. I bet Yainer gets going before too long.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Projected OPS: .930
Actual OPS: .670
I doubt the Yordan owner lets you have him for a discount. But maybe the guy who has him is new to the game. Or maybe they just don’t understand the law of large numbers or how provenly elite Yordan Alvarez is.
So give some thought to who the Yordan owner in your league is, but if you think they’re suckerish enough, go for it. Yordan’s xwOBA over the last two weeks is way up there at .361, so the turnaround has already begun in all likelihood.
Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
Projected OPS: .752
Actual OPS: .493
We saw Semien up there on the slow starters table. I’m a bit more hesitant on recommending him as a buy-low, because the skills have been dissipating for a few years now, and he’s way up there in age (34, so he’s my age!). But your opponents probably feel the same way, meaning Semien could get very, very cheap.
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