Hitters Who Could Add Steals in 2025
I look into the home to first speed data to find hitters who have the leg speed to steal more bases in 2025
I was on a podcast the other night with Tim Kanak, and we got talking about the difference between sprint speed and home to first speed. You can check that out here:
It gave me the idea that we should examine some of the guys who were really quick to go from home to first last year but didn’t attempt many steals once they got there.
First, let’s check on some of the names who significantly raised their stolen base attempt rates from 2023 to 2024.
What you have here are the 25 players who raised their attempt rate by at least seven points from 2023 to 2024, along with their 2023 adjusted home-to-first speed score. What you see here is how much faster or slower each player was from home to first compared to the average and adjusted for what side of the plate they hit from. Lefties have the advantage of starting closer to first, so there’s a bias in this stat that you have to adjust for.
Just to make this perfectly clear, I’ll explain the first row.
In 2023, Luis Rengifo was 2.6% faster from home to first than the average. In 2024, he raised his stolen base attempt rate from 8.6% to 36.5%.
SB Att% = (SB+CS) / (1B+BB+HBP)
You see that 23 of the 25 players who ran more in 2024 were faster than the average player in 2023. This makes logical sense, and it sets the stage for us to use the 2024 data to find some guys who are more likely to run more often in 2025.
We’ll look for guys who were faster than the league average in 2024 but had low stolen base attempt rates. And I will be selective to filter to the guys who drafted in most fantasy leagues this year.
For the rest of this post, I’ll call it “Speed Over Average” and shorten it to “SOA.”
I will give you three for free, and the rest will be saved for the paid subscribers.
Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees
2024 SOA: +8.1%
2024 SB Att%: 7.7%
The guys on the list who have had higher steals seasons in the past will be the most interesting. With these names, you know the appetite has been there at some point, and in my mind, that means it’s a little more likely to come back.
Bellinger is still very fast. He swiped 20 bags just two seasons ago, but his attempt rate dropped ten points last year.
There’s a good shot he will run more in 2025. Maybe he’ll even be feeling extra slim and quick in the pinstripes.
Projections
ATC: 12
JA: 13
OOPSY: 12
Steamer: 12
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
2024 SOA: +3.1%
2024 SB Att%: 4.0%
A lot of people are going to abandon ship on Realmuto as he begins his age-34 season as a catcher who fell the whole way down to two steals as year ago.
But the guy is still fleet of foot, and that’s compared to the whole league - not just catchers.
There were some injuries last year that could have played into that vastly diminished attempt rate. There’s still 15+ steal upside for Realmuto in my book.
Projections
ATC: 6
JA: 10
OOPSY: 9
Steamer: 7
Thairo Estrada, Colorado Rockies
2024 SOA: +4.1%
2024 SB Att%: 5.9%
Estrada's signing with the Rockies after they let Brendan Rodgers go was a welcome boost to his fantasy value.
Estrada swiped 43 bags between 2022 and 2023 with the Giants. He didn’t play that much last year due to a lack of performance (.217/.247/.343), but he’ll be locked in playing time in Colorado, and we should see another 20+ steal season from the guy.
Projections
ATC: 11
JA: 13
OOPSY: 11
Steamer: 11
And here comes the paywall. And you’ll want to pay up for this one, because what I’m about to say next I guarantee will win you every fantasy league you play in this year (unless it doesn’t).