July 25th DraftKings Player Pool
Making this free for today since it’s a bonus day. I wanted to walk through the projections with you all and highlight the standouts at each position. Going to make this quick and dirty, let’s get to it. I put these out Tuesdays & Fridays for paid subs, so if you’re not one and you want more of this stuff, along with the full daily notes membership & the full coming NFL product, subscribe!
One thing I’ve been trying to keep a much closer eye on is the weather stuff, which really I was neglecting outside of PPD risk.
The BallparkPal Twitter account is great for this, and Kevin Roth’s daily report is a must as well. Still really need to not overreact to this stuff, but it’s worth keeping a moderately close eye on.
Starting Pitcher
Top projections
Fried 20.04
Manaea 17.82
Gonsolin 17.79
Odorizzi 16.72
Brubaker 15.66
Kluber 15.38
Sampson 14.88
Suarez 13.94
Flexen 13.78
Ashby 13.14
Top value marks
Odorizzi $7800 2.14
Brubaker $7400 2.12
Sampson $7100 2.10
Manaea $8800 2.02
Flexen $7200 1.91
Suarez $7300 1.91
Fried $10500 1.91
Gilbert $5300 1.88
Kluber $8300 1.84
Gonsolin $10200 1.74
Odorizzi and Manaea crack the top five on both lists, which would signal that maybe that should be our cash lineup combination. But it’s not so simple because Fried is projected more than two points above the rest of the field. I’m not sure what the optimal strategy is here, but given that Odorizzi is so tough to trust, I’m really leaning towards the “safety” of Fried & Manaea, even though the projections are saying that’s not the exact right way to go. Maybe it will get more clear after we look at hitters.
I think the cash game pitchers are those three names, but guys like Kluber, Brubaker, and Sampson aren’t far outside of the mix either given how gross the slate is.
Team Offense
Dodgers vs. Espino: 85.54 points
Rays vs. Voth 75.99 points
Cubs vs. Brubaker: 62.20 points
D’Backs vs. Junis 61.61 points
Brewers vs. Freeland 61.37 points
Royals vs. Syndergaard 61.22 points
So you see a huge gap there, suggesting we need some Dodgers.
So we do not have much in terms of savings here. If we start with Fried, Manaea, Freeman, Turner, Betts, Lowe, Arozarena - well, we can’t do that because it gives us just $3500 for the three remaining spots.
If we go Fried → Odorizzi then we have to full punt the final 3 spots ($6200 left for the remaining).
What we can do is bail on Freeman in favor of Choi or someone else… tough calls but let’s just go to the position by position look and see what else we can find.
Catchers
Will Smith has the top projection by a mile at 10.35, which is a value mark of 2.03 - that’s also the highest on the slate. I think there should probably be a rule about “if a player is the highest projection and value - you must play him”. Maybe he won’t be in the lineup and it will make things easier, because it seems like a rough night to pay $5100 for a catcher.
The pool (price/projection/value):
Smith $5100/ 10.35 / 2.03
Mejia $3700 / 7.48 / 2.02
Caratini $3300 / 6.06 / 1.84
Maile $2100 / 3.94 / 1.88
I don’t really want to punt at catcher, cause we get just nothing from him almost every time.
So we’ll try to get to Smith and fall back on Mejia/Caratini
Favorite play: Will Smith $5100
First Base
Freeman $6200 / 11.78 / 1.90
Choi $3300 / 9.04 / 2.74
Paredes $4100 / 8.42 / 2.05
Walsh $2700 / 7.72 / 2.86
Dalbec $3400 / 6.82 / 2.84
So it would seem that Choi is the optimal play given the raw and value projection combination there, I think we’ll be okay fading Freeman at the big price. Let’s just take the $3000 savings.
Favorite play: Ji-Man Choi $3300
Second Base
Lowe $4900 / 12.74 / 2.60
Marte $5300 / 9.18 / 1.73
Altuve $5000 / 7.68 / 1.54
Lux $3500 / 7.42 / 2.12
Lowe has the highest projection by a large margin and the third-best value (the best values are Jeter Downs and Phil Gosselin because they’re minimum priced - I don’t think we’re playing those guys).
Favorite play: Brandon Lowe $4900
Shortstop
Turner $5800 / 11.89 / 2.05
Adames $5100 / 9.12 / 1.79
Swanson $5200 / 8.41 / 1.62
Bogaerts $5000 / 8.31 / 1.66
Walls $2500 / 5.92 / 2.37
Trea is the top projection, once again by far, and the fourth-best value so we’re going to him.
Favorite play: Trea Turner $5800
Third Base
Muncy $4000 / 10.33 / 2.58
Ramirez $6000 / 9.73 / 1.62
Diaz $4400 / 9.05 / 2.06
Riley $5800 / 8.47 / 1.46
Paredes $4100 / 8.42 / 2.05
Dalbec $2400 / 6.82 / 2.84
The model would say Muncy is the best play, but it’s still weighing a lot of his projection on the 2021 data, and he just hasn’t been the same guy in 2022. The price is down to match that, so he’s probably still the top play, but this isn’t a horrible position to punt with Dalbec today.
Favorite play: Max Muncy $4000
Outfield
Betts $5400 / 12.21 / 2.26
Arozarena $4900 / 10.40 / 2.12
Acuna Jr. $5600 / 9.41 / 1.68
Renfroe $4100 / 8.63 / 2.10
Greg Allen $2100 / 8.04 / 3.83
McCutchen $4500 / 8.01 / 1.78
Tucker $4800 / 8.00 / 1.67
Phillips $2100 / 6.94 / 3.30
Thompson $2500 / 7.94 / 3.18
Having three outfield spots pretty much means I’m going to have to jam in Greg Allen here if he’s at the top of the lineup again. That’s mostly just because we need a punt, but also because he’s hit well in the minors this year and can steal bases - so you have that path to points.
Favorite plays: Betts $5400, Allen $2100, Arozarena $4900
So we can’t have it all. If we fade Fried, Freeman, and super-punt at 3B with Jeter Downs, we can do this:
SP1: Manaea
SP2: Odorizzi
C: Smith
1B: Choi
2B: Lowe
SS: Turner
3B: Downs
OF: Betts
OF: Tucker
OF: Allen
If we go to Fried & Manaea we end up with something like this:
SP1: Manaea
SP2: Fried
C: Caratini
1B: Choi
2B: Lowe
SS: Turner
3B: Dalbec
OF: Betts
OF: Duran
OF: Allen
I’m liking the first one a bit more here, but really won’t be surprised if Manaea & Odorizzi fall short of 20 combined points.
I’m all over the place, but hope it helps! Good luck!