July 7th DraftKings Analysis
What’s up subs! I have a very open schedule today and I know I missed Tuesday’s post, so I’m putting one out for you all tonight! I thought we’d have a really lame Thursday of baseball since most teams played Monday, but it turns out we have ten games on the board tonight.
It looks like we are clear of weather issues tonight, but be sure to check out the weather reports after this afternoon. I use the RotoGrinders resource here, so check that out if you’re not familiar.
Pitchers
Top projections:
It’s probably best to stick to Cease, Strider, Cole, and Musgrove here. The $8500 mark for Strider probably makes him the top dog, and I think we can just go with him and Cease/Cole and move on. No use over-thinking things here, those three are the top three on the board in K-BB% and DK/PA as well.
An interesting note is that the Tigers have really not been a push-over recently. Since June 26th they are hitting .272/.346/.416. That .762 OPS is 12th-best in baseball, so I might actually lean more towards Cole here.
If you need a super-punt at SP2, Casey Lawrence at $4,000 fits that mold.
The reason for this is that he’s priced like an opener (as he was in his first three outings), but last time out he threw 87 pitches. If we knew for sure he’d throw 80+ pitches again I might actually consider this in a single lineup build, but since we don’t know that it’s too risky outside of GPP. His stuff isn’t all that impressive either as he really doesn’t have a strikeout pitch.
But I think taking that price and stacking up the big bats is super viable in GPP.
Single lineup pitchers: Cole, Strider
Team Offense
We have the Reds facing Bryse Wilson at home, so they are on top of the model. It’s the second game of the double-header so the lineup might be abnormal. Both sides of the plate have punished Wilson this year
Righties: .297/.347/.495, 17.8% K%, 9.3% Brl%
Lefties: .378/.443/.595, 14.8% K%, 6.3% Brl%
Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin, Brandon Drury, and Nick Senzel stand out here.
The Rockies are also in a decent spot, albeit they’re away from Coors Field so they’re always tough to play there - but they get Dallas Keuchel who has these splits
Righties: .331/.394/.541, 17% K%, 7.4% Brl
Lefties: .343/.465/.457, 5% K%, 9.1% Brl%
C.J. Cron $5000 and Kris Bryant $4200, and Brendan Rodgers $4300 are the real interesting ones here, but the prices don’t seem all that great given them being away from Coors, so I doubt I end up on them.
The Dodgers get Mark Leiter Jr., who has pitched pretty decent lately and has a 25% K% and a low 7.6% Brl% for the year. It’s still a fine time to play LA, but they aren’t a must.
And the Yankees are against Winckowski, who get as lot of ground-balls but that shouldn’t keep us off of guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton for the upside. Winckowski has given up a .310/.311/.414 line to righties so he can be had - just not sure if I want to go to the crazy high Judge price.
Individual Hitters
The Diamondbacks get a lefty today (Austin Gomber), which puts us on Christian Walker and Ketel Marte. Here is what they have done against LHP this year
Walker: .288/.397/.606, 15.5% Brl%, 10.3% K%, .487 xwOBA
Marte: .300/.355/.457, 5.0% Brl%, 13.2% K%, .353 xwOBA
Clustering Sheet
Here are the top bats by the BvP Clustering sheet
Teoscar Hernandez has hit .282/.317/.615 with a 17% Brl% against lefties this year, so he’s on the shortlist as well at just $4100.
Santiago Espinal is a good value at 3B as he’s hit .348/.405/.576 against lefties this year, but he hasn’t gotten their with a ton of power with 3 homers and just a 5.3% Brl%. If he’s at the top of the lineup, I’ll be in here - but we might not even know that until past lock since the game is in Seattle.
The Pirates are also a bit interesting in Great American ballpark. We don’t have an announced starter for the Reds, it will likely be a bullpen game - but that works for Bryan Reynolds as a switch hitter, so he’s interesting. Daniel Vogelbach is a good 1B punt too if the Reds starter is righty (or even if he’s not since the starter will probably only face the lineup once…). Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz are certainly playable as well.
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