June 13th DraftKings Slate Analysis
A Monday DK slates that demands a substack post, and I figured we’ll make this for everybody - although the dashboards & analysis files that we take the screenshots from below are still just limited to paid subs. Let’s have at it!
Pitchers
top projections:
The pitchers in consideration are
Aaron Nola $10.1
Sandy Alcantara $10.2
Alek Manoah $9.8
Yu Darvish $8.4
Cristian Javier $8.6
Zack Thompson $4.3
I’m not going to do some in-depth analysis trying to parse between Nola and Alcantara. They face each other - so Nola has the matchup advantage, but Sandy has the advantage of just being better than Nola this year
I think I’ll probably lean towards Nola in tournaments with the higher strikeout rate and the better matchup. Here are the K-BB marks for the top pitchers going today.
The other guy that must be talked about is this Zack Thompson dude who is priced at $4300 against the Pirates. He went over 70 pitches in his first start of the year, so he's not some opener guy - which makes the price just a straight-up mistake on DraftKings part. I suppose it’s not that wise to play him much in tournaments since he’ll probably be popular, the ceiling is low, and the opportunity cost of using an SP slot on him is so great, but I don’t see how you get away from him in cash games or if you’re just trying to cash in a tournament without trying to win the whole thing.
Here’s his “stuff” from that one start:
Nothing very impressive here, more than 50% on the four-seamer and bad marks on it. Curveball was bad in that start too. Even with the matchup against the Pirates, there’s a pretty good chance he comes in under 10 points which will kneecap your tournament lineup - but again, fine for a cash game lineup.
I think my GPP combo if I was just making one lineup to go for gold would be Nola & Darvish.
Hitters - Matchups
The top hitter matchups would seem to be
Diamondbacks vs. Minor
Cardinals vs. Keller
Astros vs. Hearn
Blue Jays vs. Bradish
Twins vs. Flexen
Top Hitters
Ronald Acuna ($6,000)
Manny Machado ($5,400)
Ketel Marte ($4,700)
Jose Altuve ($5,400)
Austin Riley ($5,500)
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,800)
Vlad Guerrero ($5,500)
George Springer ($5,600)
Yordan Alvarez ($5,700)
Joc Pederson ($4,400)
Christian Walker ($3,600)
Cheap Hitters
Jack Suwinski ($2,000)
Luis Gonzalez ($2,800)
Jesus Aguilar ($2,100)
Colin Moran ($2,100)
Harrison Bader ($3,000)
Brendan Donovan ($2,900)
Gabriel Moreno ($2,200)
Jordan Luplow ($3,500)
Position Pools
I’ll break this down by price group today, with dollar signs showing high, mid, or low price - and I’ll make my preferred price-considered target BOLD.
Catcher
$$$: William Contreras ($4,900)
$$: Austin Nola ($2,800)
$: Gabriel Moreno ($2,200)
First Base
$$$: Paul Goldschmidt ($5,800), Vlad Guerrero ($5,5600)
$$: Christian Walker ($3,600)
$: Jesus Aguilar ($2,100)
Second Base
$$$: Jose Altuve ($5,400)
$$: Ketel Marte ($4,700)
$: Brendan Donovan ($2,900)
Third Base
$$$: Manny Machado ($5,400), Austin Riley ($5,500)
$$: Ke’Bryan Hayes ($4,200), Josh Rojas ($4,300)
$: Emmanuel Rivera ($2,700)
Shortstop
$$$: Bo Bichette ($5,600), Tommy Edman ($5,500)
$$: Jeremy Pena ($4,300)
$: Luis Garcia ($2,800), Diego Castillo ($2,600)
Outfield
$$$: Ronald Acuna ($6,000), George Springer ($5,600), Juan Soto ($5,100)
$$: Mike Yastremzki ($4,100), Juan Yepez ($3,900), Joc Pederson ($4,400)
$: Luis Gonzalez ($2,800), Harrison Bader ($3,000), Jordan Luplow ($3,500),
Here’s a lineup that works with all of that:
SP1: Aaron Nola
SP2: Zack Thompson
C: Gabriel Moreno
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Manny Machado
SS: Luis Garcia
OF: Ronald Acuna
OF: George Springer
OF: Luis Gonzalez
And that leaves you with $300 to buy yourself a tank of gas! Good luck to everybody tonight - thanks for reading!