June 21st DraftKings Analysis
Welcome to Tuesday night, one of the two best nights of baseball of the week! We’re back here to analyze this slate to death. We’re making half of this free for the masses again, but the full projections, dashboards, and my player pool and example lineup are only going out to the paid members ($5/month!)
Pitchers
All of the aces pitched yesterday so we have none left over. Let’s just talk briefly about every pitcher of any interest at all to us, and we’ll order this by price.
Nestor Cortes vs. Rays :: $10,400
Leads the slate in points per start (21.8)
K% is only 22% over the last five starts
Rays are a great matchup (.651 OPS against LHP since May 1st)
On a slate with other more bonafide aces, I wouldn’t be interested in paying this for Cortes, but he’s in consideration here because of the lack of other options, his performance this year overall, and the matchup.
Kevin Gausman vs. White Sox :: $10,200
Certainly can’t pay him in cash (by that I mean double-up type contests or if you’re just making one lineup and looking for a decent score, as compared to putting in a lineup trying to take down a tournament)
Interesting for tournaments if he gets the stuff back since nobody else will touch him
Dylan Cease vs. Blue Jays :: $9,800
Blue Jays have been the toughest matchup in the league over the last month (1.97 DK/IP for opposing pitchers)
Cease has the second-highest K% on the slate (33%), but a bad 11% BB%
Not a cash option
Sean Manaea vs. D’Backs :: $9,000
Strikeouts can never be trusted with this dude, and he’s down to 21% over the last five starts, but 25.5% for the year
Arizona is a middling matchup against lefties, they hit them pretty well
Spencer Strider vs. SF :: $8,600
Has scored 4.85 DraftKings points per inning since May 15th, the best mark on the slate
Giants vs. RHP since 5/1: .233/.329/.388, 7% Brl%, 21.5% K%, 11.4% BB%
I’d say he’s a cash game play at the price, but it’s not all that safe given his walk rate and the fact that Brandon Belt is back - it’s an improved lineup right now for sure
Roansy Contreras vs. CHC :: $7,400
Has averaged 14 DK/G over the last five, 23% K%
Upside for more strikeouts with his fastball/slider which are both sick
Tournament play for sure, questionable for cash
Zac Gallen vs. SD :: $9,300
He’s been bad lately and the K% is never all that good
BUT, the Padres vs. RHP when you take away Machado: .228/.299/.356, 22.3% K%, 6.2% Brl%
Hitter Matchups
Highest barrel rates allowed for pitchers on the slate
Matt Swarmer (vs. PIT): 14.8%
Roansy Contreras (vs. CHC): 12.2%
Jose Urquidy (vs. NYM): 12.1%
Best Splits Advantages
Cardinals RHH vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez
Pirates RHB vs. Matt Swarmer
Braves LHB vs. Anthony DeSclafani
Angels LHB vs. Jonathan Heasley
Top Hitters by JA Projections
Buxton 11.63
Trout 11.60
Judge 11.43
Devers 11.33
Duran 10.68
Goldschmidt 10.53
Ohtani 9.95
L Gonzalez 9.91
Yepez 9.88
LeMahieu 9.87
Torres 9.80
J Ramirez 9.57
Alvarez 9.54
Top Projected Offenses
NYY
STL
BOS
LAA
Top Value Bats
Jarren Duran $3300
Jack Suwinski $2100
Kyle Higashioka $2300
Nomar Mazara $2000
Oneil Cruz $2000
Alex Kirilloff $2200
Now on to my player pool & main lineup rough draft