LAC @ KC NFL SHOWDOWN BREAKDOWN
NFL SHOWDOWN DFS
Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers head to Kansas City on Thursday Night to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are four point home favorites, in a game featuring a lovely 54 point total. Doesn’t get much better than this with two of the AFC’s best, led by 2 MVP favorites. Just like last week, I will go over my favorite plays, my favorite value options at a $/point ratio, some cheap targets for large field tournaments, as well as some leverage plays that we can use to build unique lineups. Always keep in mind the size of the tournament you are playing in when constructing your lineups. Personally, I recommend sticking to the single entry contests, and 3 entry max contests that DK has to offer. Let’s get into it.
With a week in the books, we finally have some actual game data to look at. Jon compiled some high-level data below, that can be helpful in our lineup decisions. Of course, it’s a 1-week sample size so we want to take this information with a grain of salt, but I do still believe this information is helpful in understanding the pieces in each offense, and the style in which they play.
KC: 66 Plays, 59.1% Pass%, 54.6% xPass%, 4.5% Pass% OE
LAC: 63 Plays, 54.0% Pass%, 56.7% xPass%, -2.7% Pass% OE
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Austin Ekeler (LAC), 14 Rushes, 4 Rec, 18 Touches, 31.6% Touch Share
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC), 7 Rushes, 3 Rec, 10 Touches, 17.5% Touch Share
Travis Kelce (KC), 0 Rushes, 8 Rec, 8 Touches, 14.0% Touch Share
Jerick McKinnon (KC), 4 Rushes, 3 Rec, 7 Touches, 12.3% Touch Share
Sony Michel (LAC), 7 Rushes, 0 Rec, 7 Touches, 12.3% Touch Share
Target Share Leaders
Travis Kelce (KC), 9 Tgts, 23.7 Tgt%
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC), 8 Tgts, 21.1 Tgt%
Mecole Hardman (KC), 6 Tgts, 15.8 Tgt%
Gerald Everett (LAC), 4 Tgts, 12.5 Tgt%
DeAndre Carter (LAC), 4 Tgts, 12.5 Tgt%
Mike Williams (LAC), 4 Tgts, 12.5 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
DeAndre Carter (LAC), 77 yards, 32.8 Air Yd%
Travis Kelce (KC), 95 yards, 31.2 Air Yd%
Mecole Hardman (KC), 86 yards, 28.3 Air Yd%
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC), 82 yards, 27.0 Air Yd%
Keenan Allen (LAC), 52 yards, 22.1 Air Yd%
Gerald Everett (LAC), 30 yards, 12.8 Air Yd%
Jalen Guyton (LAC), 28 yards, 11.9 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Austin Ekeler (LAC), 14 Rushes, 45.2 Rush%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC), 7 Rushes, 25.9 Rush%
Sony Michel (LAC), 7 Rushes, 22.6 Rush%
Jerick McKinnon (KC), 4 Rushes, 14.8 Rush%
Justin Herbert (LAC), 4 Rushes, 12.9 Rush%
Joshua Kelley (LAC), 4 Rushes, 12.9 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Gerald Everett (LAC), 2 RZ Tgts, 40.0 RZ Tgt%
Mecole Hardman (KC), 3 RZ Tgts, 23.1 RZ Tgt%
Josh Palmer (LAC), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Richard Rodgers (LAC), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Tre' McKitty (LAC), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC), 2 RZ Tgts, 15.4 RZ Tgt%
Noah Gray (KC), 2 RZ Tgts, 15.4 RZ Tgt%
Travis Kelce (KC), 2 RZ Tgts, 15.4 RZ Tgt%
Joe Fortson (KC), 1 RZ Tgts, 7.7 RZ Tgt%
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC), 1 RZ Tgts, 7.7 RZ Tgt%
Justin Watson (KC), 1 RZ Tgts, 7.7 RZ Tgt%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC), 1 RZ Tgts, 7.7 RZ Tgt%
TOP PLAYS:
PATRICK MAHOMES. SALARY: $11,800. PROJ: 24.87
Still blows my mind that during the off-season people were worried about this Chiefs offense. Mahomes is coming off an absurd 5 TD, 360 passing yard game on 39 attempts. While I do believe this Chargers D is much improved and should put more pressure on Mahomes, Mahomes is easily the slate’s top option. I would avoid Mahomes CPT teams due to his salary, and the pass-catching options of his we have.
JUSTIN HERBERT. SALARY: $11,200. PROJ: 22.27
If it wasn’t for Mahomes, Herbert would as well easily be tonight's top option. Herbert is coming off of a 3 TD, 279 yard game of his own on 34 pass attempts. Herbert will be without Keenan Allen tonight, his top pass catching option, but this Chargers team is still loaded on offense, and Herbert will still have himself a day. Unlike Mahomes, I think we can look to build Herbert CPT teams as there are a few cheap pass catching options to stack him up with.
TRAVIS KELCE. SALARY: $11,000. PROJ: 18.06
Mahomes favorite weapon. In Kelce’s first game of his 2022 campaign without Tyreek Hill, Kelce finished with 8 catches on 9 targets for 121 yards and a TD. As noted in Jon’s data, Kelce lead the team in air yards share (31.2%) and target share (23.7%), the clear #1 in KC. Should be one of if not the most popular CPT choice tonight.
AUSTIN EKELER. SALARY: $10,200. PROJ:17.45
Ekeler’s week 1 usage definitely has reason for concern. Ekeler rushed the ball 14 times for 36 yards, while Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel combined for 11 attempts and 33 yards. Ekeler played on 34/67 snaps, with 15 routes run. Personally, I think this is due to the game flow. The Chargers had a comfortable lead for a lot of the game, and didn’t mind keeping Ekeler fresh for tonight. I am not worried about Ekeler moving forward, especially headed into tonight. With Keenan Allen out, I fully expect the offense to flow through Ekelar and Mike Williams. In 3 games without Keenan Allen, Ekeler has 130 rush yards, 73 rec. yards, and 3 TD’s. Hopefully last week’s usage keeps Ekeler’s ownership lower than it should be, and I really like Ekeler CPT teams tonight.
MIKE WILLIAMS. SALARY: $9,000. PROJ: 15.42
The default #1 with no Keenan Allen tonight. Mike Williams had a disappointing week 1 performance, finishing with 2 catches for 10 yards on 4 targets. In 2 games last year without Keenan, Williams finished with 12 receptions for 169 yards and a TD. Love this spot for a Mike Williams bounce back against this KC secondary, and is the clear #1 option for Herbert tonight. Williams is a great CPT target when pairing with Herbert.
JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER. SALARY: $8,000. PROJ: 13.88
JuJu did not disappoint in his KC debut. Finishing with 6 receptions on 8 targets for 79 yards. JuJu was second on the team in target share (21.1%), and third in air yards share (27%), and all of this coming without a target in the second half. JuJu is a target hog, and in an anticipated shootout with the Chargers, I think JuJu will be even more involved especially later in the game. Easy play at his price tag, and a great CPT choice.
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