Late Round Rookies to Target
Going deep into the minor league data to find potential breakout rookies for 2024
I am currently in the mid-rounds of a Draft Champions NFBC draft. For those of you unaware, these drafts are 15-team, 50-round draft-and-hold leagues. That means you draft your team you’re done. No waivers and no trades, but you do have to set your lineup week in and week out.
These leagues have incredibly deep benches, and the key to winning these leagues is finding those super late-round gems.
So I am writing this post primarily for my benefit. I need to find some late-round upside. That was one of the things I didn’t do well last year and my DC drafts didn’t go well - I failed to cash in any of the three leagues I did.
I am doing this the way I do everything else - ignoring what everybody is saying, not paying attention to the prospect scout bros, and relying heavily on database queries. Let’s get to do it.
The Rookies
This is where most of our time will be spent. While most rookies disappoint, they are still the most common source of true break-out players.
The Big Names - Going in the Top 300
The most common way people go about searching for upside is by pulling the trigger on some of the game’s top prospects that are expected to be big parts of their Major League clubs this year. I’m going to knock out the guys that are going in the top 300 first, even though they don’t qualify as “late-round picks”
First, the names you’ve heard over and over again from other people. These are the game’s top prospects expected to debut in 2024 while having at least a small chance of opening the season in the Majors. The query I ran was
ADP < 300
Zero Major League plate appearances or innings
The list:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ADP 54)
Jackson Chourio (ADP 138)
Wyatt Langford (ADP 154)
Jackson Holliday (ADP 200)
Shota Imanaga (ADP 223)
Jung Hoo Lee (ADP 256)
Paul Skenes (ADP 281)
Yuki Matsui (ADP 284)
The guys in italics aren’t prospects, they are international signings. All of those players are certain to make the Major League club. I suppose I am fine with drafting Yamamoto where he goes, his talent seems to be on a higher level, but with the rest of them, I think there’s too much uncertainty to justify their ADPs.
Chourio already signed a contract extension, which takes away any financial incentive for the team to keep him in the minors, so he’s quite likely to be in the Opening Day Brewers lineup as well. His 18% K%, 22 homers, and 43 steals in the minors last year make him a very appealing bat, but I do think that price is too high for a guy with no Major League experience.
As for those other three (Langford, Holliday, Skenes), it’s a big fat “no thanks” from me. I doubt any of them make the team right away, and I very much doubt any of them come up and have a huge impact on the fantasy game right away.
This section so far has had nothing to do with “late round targets”, because we aren’t talking about the late rounds - so let’s back it up a bit.
ADP 300-400
The hitter list:
Kyle Manzardo (ADP 313)
Colt Keith (ADP 345)
Tyler Black (ADP 359)
Dylan Crews (ADP 390)
For the hitters, here are the minor league numbers from 2023:
They have all reached AAA besides Crews, who had very little time in the minors after being drafted in the 2023 draft. The best shot at making the club out of the spring training would seem to be Manzardo. He has logged a bunch of time in AAA, but Cleveland still has some incentive to keep him down for a month or so.
As with any rookie, the most likely outcome is that they struggle in their first go-round against Major League pitching. It’s very rare to see a rookie come up and be an above-average bat at first. What I’m looking for in these rookie hitters are
High OPS
Low K%
Strong HR Rates
Higher steal attempt rates
We don’t need all of our fantasy hitters to steal bags, but when you’re picking a guy with so much uncertainty, you want to carve out as many paths to fantasy success as possible. If Tyler Black comes up and can only slug .410 off Major League pitching at first, at least he can still help your fantasy team with the steals. With a guy like Manzardo, you’re fully dependent on his ability to maintain the good K% and home run rate in the Majors, and he falls substantially in both (which is likely), he’s much less valuable.
In the 300-400 range, I’d still rather just be drafting the established Major Leaguers that are still there, but I might take a shot at Colt Keith with the ADP in the mid-300s and with his strong power (8% Brl%) and contact (75% contact%) abilities he’s shown in AAA.
Later Round Hitter Prospects
We’re going really, really deep at this point. I’m guessing that almost all of the names I mention below won’t end up mattering much for 2024 fantasy, but I think it’s also a good bet that a few of them make a big-time splash and become much more well-known names this season. Subscribe to get the rest of this analysis, I get really into the data, looking at minor league K%, OPS, home run rates, K-BB%, SwStr%, and much more.
If you’re new here and wondering what’s going on, check out this page for more information.