May 2nd DFS Analysis
Alrighty it’s been awhile since I got one of these out, but it’s a nice slate on this Tuesday so let’s bang one out.
Overview
The only weather game to worry about is NYM @ DET. Those poor Mets just can’t escape the rain. Kevin Roth has that at ORANGE, check out his report here.
We have a Coors game, but it’s Ryan Feltner pitching for the Rockies which is not the best situation. Those cowards cut Jose Urena which is a real shame.
Feltner has not been that bad even in Coors over the last two seasons:
That’s a pretty good sample size and just a .412 SLG allowed (league average in Coors over the last two years is .466, so he’s done much better than that).
The Brewers are throwing Freddy Peralta tonight, and he’s not someone to stack against even with the Rockies in Coors.
There really isn’t a horrible gas can pitcher on the bump tonight, so I don’t see any real obvious spots to go to for offense.
Pitchers
Tons of good pitchers on the board tonight. Here’s the pool of pitchers that I think we can consider in cash and smaller GPPs (obviously you can throw out almost anybody in a large field GPP, so we’ll concentrate more on single entry or three-entry stuff here to narrow the playing field a bit just so this is a little more interesting).
Gerrit Cole is on the slate, but he’s $11,500 and against Cleveland. That makes him a pretty easy cash fade for me given the other options. The projections really don’t love Cole tonight giving him around 17 points, so I’m completely fading the guy - but I don’t blame you if you go for him cause of course he could easily lead the slate in scoring.
Freddy Peralta vs. Rockies
It’s insanely rare for a pitcher in Coors to have the highest projection on the slate, especially on a Tuesday with 15 games. But that’s what we have tonight, and yes the projections do take Coors into account as they should. That’s still a really tough button to push in cash, but I’m going to play him in one or two of my three tourney lineups.
Joe Ryan vs. White Sox
Ryan’s been great (29% K%, 3.3% BB%) and the White Sox have been awful. Pretty easy guy to play tonight even at $10,500.
Zac Gallen vs. Rangers
Tough matchup, but nobody has pitched better than Gallen in the last three weeks. I think he’s probably over-performing on the strikeouts lately, but the price is still reasonable at $10,000 so he’s right up there with the best cash options.
Hunter Brown vs. Giants
This is an incredible matchup for strikeouts, and Brown has pitched well. He has a 27% K% which is higher than I expected from him this year, but the 12.4% SwStr% makes you doubt he can keep that up. I think he’ll mostly get by with ground balls this year, but again, the Giants really boost strikeouts for pitchers.
Tanner Bibee vs. Yankees
The Yanks are sputtering, there’s no Judge and no Stanton and nobody else is particularly threatening in that lineup. Bibee had a great first start of the year and seems like he could be a steal at $6,500 even with the projection not being all that fantastic (admittedly my model is going to be much less accurate with these guys that have spent most of their time in the minors).
Bryce Miller vs. Athletics
Miller is making the jump the whole way from AA to the MLB, so this could go horribly wrong for him even against the Athletics. However, DraftKings didn’t see the promotion coming and he’s priced at the minimum $4,000 - so we have to consider that.
Hitters
Here’s a free peek at the top ten raw projections:
and top ten values:
The projection model clearly is keen to Feltner not being terrible, as the Brewers really aren’t popping up in the model like most visiting teams do in Coors.
Here are the top 20 from the Top Plays sheet right now from the hitter projections sheet (paid subs have access to that):
And that is all we’re giving for free. We’ll plop down a paywall and then go position by position with picks. Subscribe now to get the rest of this post as well as everything else I do here on the SubStack.