Minor League Plate Discipline
A look into the most disciplined hitters in the minor leagues, with a focus on guys who could make an impact in fantasy leagues this year
I have cooked up a data file with some of my favorite plate discipline measures for all qualified minor league players from the 2024 season (at least 200 plate appearances). The stats we’re looking at:
K% (self explanatory)
BB% (self explanatory)
Swing% (the percent of pitches you swing at)
Chase% (the percent of pitches not in the zone that you swing at)
Strike% (the percent of pitches you see that result in a strike or a foul ball)
Ball% (the percent of pitches you see resulting in a called ball)
Here are your correlations for these stats:
You can see that K% is not correlated with Swing% or Chase%. A lot of people think it is, but it’s not!
We see a very high correlation between Strike% and K% and between Ball% and BB%. That’s not surprising at all since those things are directly related. Let’s get into some of the names that stand out the most in the data.
K-BB%
We talk about this incessantly for pitchers. It’s not all that useful for hitters in direct relation to fantasy production, but it does certainly give us a good idea of who is controlling the plate the best. Here are your hitting leaders from last year:
Data Notes: The affiliate you see is who they finished last year with, and the level you see is the level they finished at last year.
Only 32 hitters (200 PA minimum) had at least as many walks as strikeouts. You see them there. If we go ahead and filter to players getting drafted on the NFBC this year (this is useful because nobody is thinking that 29-year-old Trenton Brooks is going to break into the Major League lineup this year).
These are all guys who have reached the upper levels of the minors and are being considered in drafts this year by at least somebody out there.
They are players who have a higher likelihood of being able to get on base when they reach the Majors. We see Spencer Horwitz as a great example of that. He went for that elite K-BB% in the minors and then played a bunch in the Majors and posted an OBP above .350.
If you’re playing in OBP or points leagues, these players should get a boost. In a standard league where you don’t get direct credit for walks, this statistic is less interesting. It does help the speed guys, as walks will turn into steals. Caleb Durbin stands out on that front. He’s a Brewers prospect (moved to Milwaukee in the Devin Williams trade) who stole 31 bags in the minors last year.
Chandler Simpson also fits that mold. He is an outfielder in the Rays organization who stole 104 bases last year. And that’s not even a typo!
The one homer was an inside-the-parker. I am convinced that lacking power to that extent will keep a guy out of a Major League lineup. There’s just no way that defense and speed can justify a slugging percentage below .350, but I’m wrong all the freaking time.
There’s a lot more to come here, but I’m going behind the paywall to give out the really good stuff.