MLB Daily Notes - April 11th
I need to keep this brief today as there is a lot on my plate.
Andrew Heaney had a “good Heaney” game with a 20.4% SwStr% and ten strikeouts (nine in a row!). It’s going to be a bumpy ride for him, but he’s certainly capable of some massive outings like this.
Zac Gallen got right with a big 45.5% K% yesterday on a 40.6% CSW% and a 17.7% SwStr%. It was good to see him get going after a shaky first two outings.
Nick Pivetta did it again with a nice 16.9% SwStr%. For the year now, however, he’s at 10.9%.
I suppose Bryce Elder should be added. He now has a 28.3% K% and a 13.2% SwStr% across his 182 pitches thrown, and you would think he’d have a job in the rotation locked down for at least the short term with Fried on the IL and Dodd/Shuster struggling
I wrote up some buy lows and sell highs on RotoBaller yesterday, you can read that here. It’s a little bit “game theory”-ish. I basically make the case to trade away your current best players and trade for players that are awful right now. But just cause it sounds crazy, doesn’t mean I’m not right (I find myself saying that a lot these days…)
The prop bets have not been going well for me, although I’m not really betting them consistently. That said, I have Grayson Rodriguez projected for 7.1 strikeouts tonight and the line on DraftKings is 4.5 (-155 of course), there’s some value there.
There’s also Corbin Burnes down at 5.5 strikeouts - talk about an overreaction. I think I’ll parlay those two overs together - it will be fun to see which pitcher screws up and causes me another loss!
Some stuff has been moved behind the paywall, so you’ll have to be a paid member to see the full goodness of the notes. I’ve also decided to give 10% of the profits every month here to charity - probably Samaritan’s Purse. The Bible says that if you brag about your giving, you have already received your reward in full, so I guess I won’t be receiving any kind of reward for this but at least that great charity will get some money from all of us.
I’m adding new stuff to the notes and projections every week, and I really appreciate everybody who has become a paid member. Either way, thanks for being here - we’re closing in on 1,000 total subscribers and that’s been really, really fun for me.
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 19 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. Zac Gallen (ARI): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
3. Julio Urias (LAD): 15 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
4. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 14 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
5. Bryce Elder (ATL): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
6. Shane Bieber (CLE): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Max Scherzer (NYM): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Framber Valdez (HOU): 11 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
9. Drew Smyly (CHC): 11 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
10. Dylan Cease (CWS): 11 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zac Gallen (ARI): 17.7 SwStr%, 40.6 CSW%
2. Matt Strahm (PHI): 15.3 SwStr%, 37.3 CSW%
3. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 16.9 SwStr%, 36.1 CSW%
4. Bryce Elder (ATL): 13.6 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
5. Drew Smyly (CHC): 14.5 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
6. Julio Urias (LAD): 15.6 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
7. Yu Darvish (SD): 10.6 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
8. Luis Castillo (SEA): 11.8 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
9. JP Sears (OAK): 12.2 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
10. Logan Webb (SF): 11.7 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Zac Gallen - 6.67 IP - 94.75 JA Points
2. Andrew Heaney - 5.0 IP - 73.75 JA Points
3. Bryce Elder - 6.33 IP - 64.75 JA Points
4. Julio Urias - 5.67 IP - 64.0 JA Points
5. Yu Darvish - 6.33 IP - 59.0 JA Points
6. Drew Smyly - 5.0 IP - 56.75 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer - 5.0 IP - 45.75 JA Points
8. Josh Fleming - 4.0 IP - 43.75 JA Points
9. Dylan Cease - 5.0 IP - 41.25 JA Points
10. Nick Pivetta - 5.0 IP - 40.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 2 GS - 66.59 JA Points
2. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 2 GS - 54.96 JA Points
3. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 2 GS - 52.92 JA Points
4. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 2 GS - 52.61 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 2 GS - 52.61 JA Points
6. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 2 GS - 52.37 JA Points
7. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 2 GS - 50.36 JA Points
8. Pablo Lopez (MIN) - 2 GS - 48.86 JA Points
9. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 2 GS - 48.41 JA Points
10. Tyler Mahle (MIN) - 2 GS - 48.05 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Graham Ashcraft's SL velo (35 pitches) UP 4.1mph to 90.0
Yu Darvish's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 3.8mph to 90.3
Domingo German's CU velo (40 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.3
Yu Darvish's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 84.1
Logan Webb's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 84.2
Jose Suarez's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 83.6
Nick Pivetta's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 78.8
Zack Greinke's CU velo (25 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 73.6
Nick Pivetta's FF velo (42 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 95.0
Andrew Heaney's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.2
Steven Matz's CH velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.5
Devin Smeltzer's FF velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.9
Kenta Maeda's FS velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.7
Patrick Corbin's SI velo (35 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.2
Bryce Elder's SI velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 89.0
Matt Strahm's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.9
Matt Strahm's SI velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.3
Roansy Contreras's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 93.8
Kenta Maeda's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 89.2
Bryce Elder's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.9
Wil Crowe's FF velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 93.1
Luis Castillo's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 94.9
Luis Castillo's SI velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 94.5
Kyle Gibson's ST velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 79.9
Roansy Contreras's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 76.4
Zack Greinke's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 79.3
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 78.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bryce Elder's SL usage (38.5%) up 10.2 points
Devin Smeltzer's SL usage (29.4%) up 22.8 points
Graham Ashcraft's SL usage (41.2%) up 13.2 points
JP Sears's ST usage (25.6%) up 22.8 points
Jose Suarez's SL usage (31.1%) up 10.5 points
Julio Urias's SV usage (45.8%) up 43.1 points
Kyle Gibson's ST usage (31.5%) up 30.4 points
Logan Webb's SI usage (50.0%) up 16.7 points
Matt Strahm's SI usage (30.5%) up 15.0 points
Shane Bieber's FC usage (47.5%) up 30.7 points
Yu Darvish's ST usage (26.9%) up 26.2 points
Zac Gallen's CU usage (41.7%) up 19.4 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Lodolo - 50 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 48 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 48 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 70 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 48 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Michael Wacha - 47 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 49 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Michael Kopech - 48 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 31.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Lodolo - 50 TBF, 42.0% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 48 TBF, 37.5% K%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 34.8% K%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 48 TBF, 31.2% K%
Mitch Keller - 49 TBF, 30.6% K%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 29.2% K%
Freddy Peralta - 48 TBF, 29.2% K%
Sonny Gray - 48 TBF, 29.2% K%
Kevin Gausman - 51 TBF, 27.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Lodolo - 50 TBF, 36.0% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 48 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 48 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
Miles Mikolas - 49 TBF, 22.4% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 51 TBF, 21.6% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 48 TBF, 20.8% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 70 TBF, 20.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Seth Lugo - 50 TBF, 67.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 77 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Johan Oviedo - 49 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 51 TBF, 58.8% GB%
German Marquez - 63 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 47 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Mitch Keller - 49 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 48 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Nick Martinez - 52 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 44 TBF, 27.3 K%, 2.3 BB%, 58.1% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 48 TBF, 27.1 K%, 4.2 BB%, 56.2% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 42 TBF, 35.7 K%, 0.0 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Kris Bubic - 43 TBF, 30.2 K%, 2.3 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 42 TBF, 31.0 K%, 7.1 BB%, 57.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 43 TBF, 27.9 K%, 7.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 50 TBF, 42.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tyler Mahle - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, 55.2% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Adley Rutschman (BAL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Austin Hays (BAL) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Max Muncy (LAD) 4 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Francisco Lindor, Yesterday: 111.0 Previous High: 110.7
Ozzie Albies, Yesterday: 109.2 Previous High: 106.6
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Max Muncy - 4.0 PA - 76.0 JA Points
2. Austin Hays - 4.0 PA - 67.0 JA Points
3. Jonah Heim - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
4. Brandon Marsh - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
5. Yordan Alvarez - 6.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
6. Mike Zunino - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
7. Mookie Betts - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
8. Hunter Renfroe - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
9. Corey Seager - 5.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
10. Joey Meneses - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 41.0 PA - 243.9 JA Points
2. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 45.0 PA - 233.78 JA Points
3. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 44.0 PA - 226.36 JA Points
4. Adam Duvall (BOS) - 37.0 PA - 205.41 JA Points
5. Brandon Lowe (TB) - 32.0 PA - 205.0 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 45.0 PA - 199.11 JA Points
7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 49.0 PA - 191.02 JA Points
8. Mike Trout (LAA) - 47.0 PA - 179.57 JA Points
9. Randy Arozarena (TB) - 45.0 PA - 172.44 JA Points
10. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 50.0 PA - 169.6 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 116.3mph - double
Hunter Renfroe (LAA) - 113.2mph - single
Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 111.1mph - home_run
J.D. Martinez (LAD) - 111.1mph - field_out
David Peralta (LAD) - 111.0mph - fielders_choice_out
Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 111.0mph - double
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.0mph - single
Heliot Ramos (SF) - 110.9mph - single
Rodolfo Castro (PIT) - 110.6mph - single
Mike Zunino (CLE) - 110.1mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Matt Chapman - 44 PA, 31 BIP, 11 Brls, 35.5 Brl%
James Outman - 39 PA, 18 BIP, 6 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
MJ Melendez - 38 PA, 18 BIP, 6 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Brian Anderson - 38 PA, 19 BIP, 6 Brls, 31.6 Brl%
Bryan Reynolds - 45 PA, 38 BIP, 12 Brls, 31.6 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 32 PA, 17 BIP, 5 Brls, 29.4 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 41 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 45 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Matt Olson - 52 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Max Muncy - 45 PA, 20 BIP, 5 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Bryan Reynolds - 45 PA, 0.55 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 44 PA, 0.549 xwOBA
Brandon Lowe - 32 PA, 0.539 xwOBA
Adam Duvall - 37 PA, 0.519 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 50 PA, 0.518 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 45 PA, 0.494 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 49 PA, 0.487 xwOBA
Mike Trout - 47 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 50 PA, 0.473 xwOBA
James Outman - 39 PA, 0.472 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Alex Verdugo - 43 PA, 59 Swings, 93.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 42 PA, 61 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 42 PA, 89 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 42 PA, 65 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 35 PA, 74 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Mauricio Dubon - 29 PA, 60 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Xander Bogaerts - 49 PA, 66 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 40 PA, 62 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Nick Gordon - 27 PA, 53 Swings, 86.8 Cont%
Will Smith - 39 PA, 66 Swings, 86.4 Cont%
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