MLB Daily Notes - April 11th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
We have to talk about Cody Bradford, I suppose! It was looking like he would lose his rotation spot with Michael Lorenzen entering the rotation, but he has made it awful tough to take him out.
19.1 innings, three runs allowed and a 17:2 K:BB. The arsenal:
A heavy dose of slow fastballs, but somehow a 13.6% SwStr% on the pitch. That doesn’t seem like something that can stick. Velocity matters a lot for a four-seamer, as we have explored here in the past:
With a fastball below 92, you’re typically seeing single-digit swinging strike rates. Last year, 18 pitchers threw 400+ fastballs with an average velo below 92. Only four of them put up a SwStr% at or above 10% (and Bradford was one of those!):
So it’s possible to put up a decent SwStr% on a slow fastball, but it’s not common. I think we’ll see this mark for Bradford come down to 10-11% again, and that is going to hurt him. It could all be a moot point if Bradford is the one to lose the job for Lorenzen, but I would feel pretty good about him getting at least another start or two before that would happen, and they might just choose him over Jon Gray or Andrew Heaney or something. He’s a sell-high, if you can, but in a sharper league you’re not going to be able to get away with that.
Kutter Crawford
He had SUCCESS despite four walks and an ugly 41.9% Ball%. Here’s his season:
35% sweeper usage from a starter is pretty uncommon, but the Red Sox seem to be embracing that strategy of going away from the fastball a bit.
Highest % of Pitches Being Breaking Balls
1. OAK 41%
2. CLE 37%
3. ATL 37%
4. KCR 36%
5. BOS 36%
The Ball% is bad for Kutter right now, and the SwStr% and Strike% are both right at the league average, but he has helped your fantasy team’s ERA this year with just one run allowed in three starts (although he has yet to come up with a win and has just one quality start).
Spencer Arrighetti
It was a rude welcome to the Major Leagues that the Royals gave the Spaghetti man. He gave up seven runs on seven hits on a 3:3 K:BB in just three innings, posting a bad 43% Strike% and 40.5% Ball%. It couldn’t have gone much worse, and we’ll certainly want to see a few good starts from him before considering him for fantasy purposes.
Dylan Cease
A 20:6 K:BB for Cease so far is awesome. His 38% Ball% is the same as last year, and the BB% is about the same as last year as well.
The four-seamer hasn’t worked very well so far this year, but he should get some more strikes on that moving forward, so it’s a very good start for Cease and I think you’re starting him every time out, except maybe against the Dodgers.
The toughest teams for a pitcher to score fantasy points against so far this year (measured by fantasy points scored per inning pitched)
ATL 1.87
TEX 1.88
ARI 1.98
CLE 2.10
CHC 2.20
SDP 2.28
BAL 2.30
NYY 2.34
PIT 2.34
MIL 2.36
Interesting to not see the Dodgers there. Their big guns have been good, but there’s not much happening at the bottom of the lineup.
They have hit the most homers in the league and the .807 team OPS is great, but they are prone to the strikeout, which helps pitchers get their fantasy points between the runs they give up.
The Mariners (29.2%) and Twins (28.5%) have the highest team strikeout rates, and the White Sox (8 HR), Tigers (9 HR), and Twins (9 HR) are the lightest hitting teams in terms of homers hit.
Hunter Greene
Have to keep talking about Greene, because he’s had a goofy year so far.
You can see a very strong K-BB% there, it’s really good to see him with an 8.2% BB%. The SIERA is nice at 3.19 and his xERA is 2.47, so there’s been a lot of bad luck here according to those indicators.
All three of his starts have been at home as well, so there will be some road games coming up for him and that’s a good thing since his main problem is the long ball.
I’m calling Greene a buy-low fo-sho.
Christian Scott
Just a little tip here on a potential stash option if you’re in a league where that’s beneficial. Paul Skenes is clearly the top minor league stash option, but Scott might be the second-best. He’s a Mets prospect, and the Mets certainly need some help in the rotation. He has 19 strikeouts in 10 innings in AAA so far:
He has an 18.8% SwStr%, a 60% Strike%, and a 31% Ball%. All elite numbers. Last season he threw just 87.2 innings but posted a 32% K% and a 3.6% BB%, that’s a crazy, crazy low walk rate in the minor leagues and it comes with a great K%. So he seems very, very good.
You would think the Mets will limit him to 120-140 innings this year, but it’s pretty likely at this point that 80+ of those will be in the Major Leagues.
I don’t think you want to use a valuable roster spot on him, but if you can afford it - he could be a pretty big help to your fantasy team’s pitching staff this summer.
Minor League K-BB% leaders here, two starts minimum:
And now, on to the reports:
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Kutter Crawford
2. Cody Bradford
3. Yusei Kikuchi
4. Hunter Greene
5. Logan Gilbert
6. Marcus Stroman
7. Jose Soriano
8. Chris Paddack
9. Dylan Cease
10. Bobby Miller
11. Spencer Arrighetti
12. Jordan Hicks
13. Tommy Henry
14. Austin Gomber
15. Lance Lynn
16. Zack Littell
17. Ross Stripling
18. Cole Irvin
19. Tanner Bibee
20. Erick Fedde
21. Seth Lugo
22. Kyle Hendricks
23. Wade Miley
24. Aaron Nola
25. Ryan Weathers
26. Patrick Corbin
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cody Bradford (vs. OAK): 29.41 Points
2. Dylan Cease (vs. CHC): 29.1 Points
3. Logan Gilbert (vs. TOR): 27.66 Points
4. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. SEA): 26.5 Points
5. Lance Lynn (vs. PHI): 20.25 Points
6. Kutter Crawford (vs. BAL): 19.65 Points
7. Zack Thompson (vs. PHI): 17.09 Points
8. Jordan Hicks (vs. WSH): 15.9 Points
9. Aaron Nola (vs. STL): 15.9 Points
10. Hunter Greene (vs. MIL): 15.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cody Bradford (TEX): 17 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
2. Hunter Greene (CIN): 15 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
3. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 15 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
4. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 14 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
5. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
6. Dylan Cease (SD): 12 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
7. Marcus Stroman (NYY): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Austin Gomber (COL): 10 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
9. Bobby Miller (LAD): 10 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
10. Chris Paddack (MIN): 10 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 51.7 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
2. Jose Soriano (LAA): 51.4 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
3. Hunter Greene (CIN): 50.5 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
4. Marcus Stroman (NYY): 50.5 Strike%, 38.9 Ball%
5. Tommy Henry (ARI): 49.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
6. Brandon Bielak (HOU): 48.0 Strike%, 42.0 Ball%
7. Dylan Cease (SD): 48.0 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%
8. Zack Littell (TB): 47.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
9. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 47.0 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
10. Chris Paddack (MIN): 46.5 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
11. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 46.4 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
12. Cody Bradford (TEX): 45.7 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
13. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 45.3 Strike%, 41.9 Ball%
14. Lance Lynn (STL): 43.6 Strike%, 44.7 Ball%
15. Jordan Hicks (SF): 43.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Gilbert: 89 Pitches, 23 Outs, 3.87 POUT
2. Jordan Hicks: 79 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.65 POUT
3. Cody Bradford: 94 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.7 POUT
4. Yusei Kikuchi: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
5. Seth Lugo: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
6. Patrick Corbin: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
7. Aaron Nola: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
8. Cole Irvin: 78 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.2 POUT
9. Austin Gomber: 98 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.44 POUT
10. Dylan Cease: 100 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.56 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Dylan Cease's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 82.9
Dylan Cease's SL velo (35 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 88.7
Dylan Cease's FF velo (51 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.2
Cody Bradford's CH velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 80.5
Jordan Hicks's FS velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.2
Parker Mushinski's FC velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.9
Ross Stripling's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.2
Aaron Nola's CU velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 77.5
Kutter Crawford's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 77.5
Lance Lynn's FC velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.7
Bobby Miller's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.1
Austin Gomber's CU velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 75.4
Aaron Nola's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 83.8
Austin Gomber's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 82.2
Marcus Stroman's FS velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 83.6
Aaron Nola's SI velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 88.8
Cody Bradford's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 74.9
Aaron Nola's FF velo (35 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 89.5
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (47 pitches) DOWN -4.0mph to 95.3
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (18 pitches) DOWN -4.7mph to 81.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bobby Miller's FF usage (39.7%) up 10.1 points
Chris Paddack's SL usage (25.6%) up 13.0 points
Cody Bradford's CU usage (16.0%) up 10.9 points
Cole Irvin's SI usage (52.6%) up 32.0 points
Cole Irvin's CU usage (30.8%) up 14.3 points
Jordan Hicks's FS usage (13.9%) up 11.1 points
Jose Soriano's SL usage (23.6%) up 17.7 points
Kutter Crawford's ST usage (40.7%) up 30.2 points
Kyle Hendricks's SI usage (47.0%) up 11.6 points
Logan Gilbert's FC usage (19.1%) up 17.7 points
Marcus Stroman's SL usage (17.9%) up 12.2 points
Parker Mushinski's FC usage (46.3%) up 12.3 points
Patrick Corbin's FC usage (36.5%) up 34.7 points
Ryan Weathers's SI usage (13.8%) up 12.2 points
Seth Lugo's SI usage (30.0%) up 10.1 points
Tommy Henry's SI usage (18.9%) up 15.1 points
Wade Miley's FF usage (30.8%) up 11.3 points
Zack Littell's SI usage (24.2%) up 14.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 67 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 70 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 70 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 73 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Logan Allen - 67 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Aaron Civale - 66 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Michael King - 64 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Martin Perez - 78 TBF, 31.4% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 31.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 70 TBF, 37.1% K%
Garrett Crochet - 67 TBF, 31.3% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
Dylan Cease - 66 TBF, 30.3% K%
Hunter Greene - 73 TBF, 30.1% K%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 29.9% K%
Lance Lynn - 61 TBF, 29.5% K%
Zac Gallen - 66 TBF, 28.8% K%
Cole Ragans - 73 TBF, 28.8% K%
Corbin Burnes - 70 TBF, 28.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 70 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 67 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 68 TBF, 22.1% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 73 TBF, 21.9% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 73 TBF, 21.9% K-BB%
Aaron Civale - 66 TBF, 21.2% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 66 TBF, 21.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Allen - 67 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 65 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 65 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Michael Soroka - 64 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 69 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Martin Perez - 78 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 75 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Tommy Henry - 68 TBF, 53.3% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 52.8% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 65 TBF, 52.4% GB%
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