We have eight starting pitchers who have made at last three starts and have a K-BB% above 25%.
Logan Gilbert 33.3%
Cole Ragans 32.3%
Jesus Luzardo 29.0%
Sonny Gray 27.4%
MacKenzie Gore 27.4%
Hunter Greene 27.3%
Hayden Wesneski 26.5%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 25.3%
One of those names is really not like the others. Hayden Wesneski has found life in his first three starts as an Astro.
So let’s take a look at the profile.
The good news is the 14.4% SwStr%, the non-awful 35% Ball%, and the depth of the pitch mix. He’s throwing six pitches, although two of those make up 65% of the mix. The fastball has never been anything special, but it’s working early on. The breaking stuff is what always had people excited about Wesneski, and you can see that the very strong marks on the sweeper and cutter.
The thing he could have trouble with is the long ball. The 28% GB% is egregiously low, and he’s given up five homers already. The 21:3 K:BB is elite, but he gave up three long balls in that last start while he was striking out those ten.
I would say there’s enough in the pitch mix to keep him a “fine” fantasy starter, if nothing else, and there’s plenty of upside with him given the early numbers we have seen. I think you’ll get plenty of clunker starts where the home run ball hurts him, but these first 18 innings are pointing toward him having a pretty decent K-BB%.
Joe Boyle got a spot start for the Rays yesterday and made his case to stick around for a bit.
5 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 R, 7 K, 2 BB
That’s a spectacular outing. We saw his ability to get whiffs (16.2% SwStr%), and he didn’t walk anybody in the first few innings. At the end of the start, it was a poor 37.8% Ball%. But that’s way better than his normal. He led the league by far last year with a 43.5% Ball%.
It’s going to take a lot for me to believe that Boyle can throw enough strikes to survive as a starting pitcher. I think a lot of people will get excited about this start since it was his first with the Rays. People think the Rays have the secret sauce and can turn anybody into a good pitcher. And credit where credit is due, they’ve done a great job with limited resources, but some girls are just too ugly to be made into princesses. It can’t happen for just anyone.
One guy I’m giving up on already is Kumar Rocker. He pitched terribly on Saturday and now has an 8.7% SwStr% and a 10.9% K% in his 11 innings. That’s a small sample, but I wouldn’t think anybody with the kind of stuff Rocker has could go for that low of a SwStr% even for 11 innings.
He makes me extra mad because he’s a projection model breaker. The guy has a career 41% K% in the minors. It’s in just 58 innings, but still.
So when a computer sees a 41% K% in the minors, it’s obviously going to dock that down a ton for when he enters the Majors. But it’s still going to keep the projection in the mid-to-high 20s. That’s the math of it. But Rocker now has an 18% K% in his 23 career MLB innings.
Kumar Rocker Stats by Level
This really shows you how much different of a world the MLB is in compared to the minors.
You would think the progression of difficulty would look something like this:
But in my experience (with numbers, at least), it looks more like this:
You just have no idea which pitchers can hang against big leaguers and which cannot.
There are a lot of differences between Paul Skenes and Kumar Rocker. I don’t think anybody was really comparing those two. But looking at their fastballs, you would have thought those would play pretty similarly in the Majors. Both extremely fast and thrown for strikes at a high rate. But Skenes fastball works fantastically well in the Majors, and Rocker’s just sucks.
It’s too early to write Rocker off for good, but I’m done with him for 2025.
Some other quick SP notes from the weekend
Will Warren had a nice outing and now has a 26% K% on the year. He also has a 12% BB% and a very poor 44% Strike% with a 43% Ball% combination. He’s maxed out at five ininngs and has given up eight earned in 14 innings, so the signs aren’t good early on, but maybe he’s decent enough to hang around in the Yankees rotation and be a streamer consideration.
Andrew Abbott returned and struck out five Pirates in a winning effort. The K% was great at 26%, but the SwStr% was awful at 7.4%. I think this was just a result of the Pirates being pathetic. I would be streaming just about anybody I can against the White Sox, Marlins, Pirates, and [road] Rockies right now.
Jackson Jobe made the normal people happy with six shutout innings and a win against the Twins. But he had just two strikeouts. This looks like another Kumar Rocker situation where the velo on the fastball alone is enough to blow minor leaguers away, but that’s not the case at in the Majors. He now has an ugly 9:8 K:BB in 15 innings. I don’t think the short-term is looking too bright for Jobe.
Roki Sasaki has improved each time out. However, that isn’t saying much with how awful those first two starts were! The ball rates so far: 55.4%, 47.5%, 39.7%, 38.3%. I think he can survive with a 36-38% Ball%, but it would be a lot more reassuring if he was also getting whiffs. He’s not, so far. The four-seamer has just a 5.9% SwStr% and the splitter is at 15.6%. That’s not an elite number for a splitter, especially for a guy who is so dependent on that pitch. The four-seamer is at 96.9mph. I thought we were expecting 98-99 from the guy. Maybe he’s just easing off for now to see if he can figure out the command. I don’t know, the early signs are all pretty horrible (9.8% SwStr%, 44% Ball%), but at least he’s throwing more strikes each time out. I’m still holding in all league types.
Corbin Burnes now has a 5.28 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and a 20% K% on a 13% BB%. The walks will come down, and everything will improve as we go forward, but it’s once against discouraging to see the lack of strikeouts.
Bryan Woo got back to form. He threw seven innings giving up one run on six hits to the Rangers. His WHIP is down to 0.95 on a 24% K% and 5.4% BB%. He’s great for WHIP, but there’s the risk that his K% settles around 22% and he gives up some extra earned runs because of that.
Tyler Glasnow has just a 9.7% SwStr% on his 237 pitches this year. That would be concerning if it wasn’t such a short sample size, but it’s something to monitor, I guess. He’s faced the Braves, Phillies, and Cubs - three pretty capable lineups. And he did strike out seven last night, but we’re used to seeing 14-17% SwStr% from the big man. And you have to feel like you need a gem every time from Glasnow while he’s healthy, because you’re constantly living in the fear that you’ll lose him for the year.
Some hitting fantasy points leaders from Friday-Sunday:
Jung Hoo Lee (67): 3 HR, 5 R, 7 RBI
Isaac Paredes (62): 3 HR, 5 R, 5 RBI
Cal Raleigh (59): 3 HR, 5 R, 5 RBI
Ozzie Albies (55): 2 HR, 2 SB, 2 R, 3 RBI
Michael Busch (54): 2 HR, 5 R, 4 RBI
Kyle Stowers (52): 0 HR, 4 R, 6 RBI, 8 hits
Byron Buxton (50): 2 HR, 5 R, 3 RBI, 1 SB
Xavier Edwards (48): 0 HR, 4 R, 2 RBI, 3 SB
Byron Buxton is still widely available in fantasy leagues. And I get that, at any given time, you can have no faith at all that the guy will be helping your fantasy team past like next Tuesday. But while he’s in the lineup and healthy, he should be in someone’s starting lineup. He now has three homers and three steals. The batting average (.192) is way down there, and he’s striking out a ton (32%), but the HR+SB ability is worth a low batting average. And he hit .279 last year, so the average doesn’t have to be bad.
I suppose it’s past time to add Spencer Torkelson. He’s hitting .309/.409/.687 with five homers and a steal this year. The K% is up there at 30%, and it’s 33% against right-handed pitching. That’s reason for some concern, but the xBA is still at .278 with an elite .427 xwOBA.
I’ve gotta get moving for the day, but here, I’ll give you some low-owned xwOBA leaders to consider adding if you need offensive help.
Ben Rice .486
Geraldo Perdomo .399
Michael Busch .395
Kyle Stowers .388
Otto Lopez .382
Ty France .379
Kyle Manzardo .379
Ke’Bryan Hayes .366
Jorge Soler .353
Matt Wallner .348
Ryan Mountcastle .348
And how about some low-earned xERA leaders (3 GS min):
Andrew Heaney 3.69
German Marquez 3.93
Jose Soriano 3.93
Gavin Williams 3.96
Mitchell Parker 3.99
Ryan Feltner 3.99
Matthew Liberatore 4.04
Matthew Boyd 3.05
Eduardo Rodriguez 4.06
Sean Newcomb 4.08
Hayden Wesneski 4.12
Max Meyer 4.12
My version of xERA doesn’t quite match Savant, so don’t yell at me for the mismatches. I’m doing my best!
And that’s it for today’s daily notes.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans
2. Garrett Crochet
3. Logan Gilbert
4. Hunter Greene
5. Michael King
6. Freddy Peralta
7. Joe Boyle
8. Carlos Rodon
9. Nathan Eovaldi
10. Chris Sale
11. Matthew Liberatore
12. Ben Lively
13. Jose Berrios
14. Colin Rea
15. Casey Mize
16. Zack Wheeler
17. MacKenzie Gore
18. Shane Smith
19. Simeon Woods Richardson
20. Hayden Wesneski
21. Logan Webb
22. Carmen Mlodzinski
23. Zac Gallen
24. Luis Severino
25. Kodai Senga
26. Kyle Freeland
27. Tyler Glasnow
28. Cade Povich
29. Cal Quantrill
30. Kyle Hendricks
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet (vs. CWS): 39.29 Points
2. Michael King (vs. COL): 38.45 Points
3. Cole Ragans (vs. CLE): 36.86 Points
4. Hunter Greene (vs. PIT): 33.95 Points
5. Matthew Liberatore (vs. PHI): 29.1 Points
6. Hayden Wesneski (vs. LAA): 28.5 Points
7. Joe Boyle (vs. ATL): 28.05 Points
8. Logan Gilbert (vs. TEX): 24.85 Points
9. Kodai Senga (vs. ATH): 24.15 Points
10. Tyler Glasnow (vs. CHC): 21.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans (KC): 20 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
2. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
3. Garrett Crochet (BOS): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
4. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 17 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
5. Michael King (SD): 17 Whiffs (110 Pitches)
6. Hunter Greene (CIN): 16 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 14 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
8. Chris Sale (ATL): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
9. Matthew Liberatore (STL): 14 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
