I am re-introducing the hot and cold player trackers today! For today, I have moved them up to the beginning so I can give them a formal introduction.
The Hot Pitcher Tracker checks on the last 3 weeks of data (in this case, it’s just all of this season) and compares each pitcher’s recent CSW% and BB% to the player’s career averages (“career” in this case means 2020-2022). This is essentially just a list of pitchers earning more strikes on average recently than the past. It doesn’t include anything about what’s happening after contact - but that actually works out for us because we know that pitchers don’t control that too much. Here you have it:
Jesus Luzardo - +3.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Luis Castillo - +2.5% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Nick Lodolo - +4.6% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
George Kirby - +3.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Next is the Hot Hitter Tracker. This looks for hitters that have, in the last week, increased their contact rate and average exit velocity while reducing their chase rate. If it’s truly possible to be “seeing the ball well recently” - then this would capture that. Six names pop up on our first run of the year:
Randy Arozarena - +9.3% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -10.9 Chase%
Nico Hoerner - +8.4% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -6.2 Chase%
Mike Yastrzemski - +11.2% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -9.4 Chase%
Jarred Kelenic - +8.6% Contact%, +9.6 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Brandon Nimmo - +5.7% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -4.7 Chase%
Corey Seager - +12.7% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -17.1 Chase%
And the last one is the Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters. This does not compare anything with the past, it just shows the hitters that have been demolishing the ball without chasing or striking out much over the last two weeks.
Bryan Reynolds - 0.509 xwOBA, 26.1% Brl%, 77.1% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 9.4% K%
Corey Seager - 0.41 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 16.3% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Kyle Tucker - 0.462 xwOBA, 16.2% Brl%, 79.2% Contact%, 22.6% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Matt Chapman - 0.555 xwOBA, 32.4% Brl%, 79.1% Contact%, 23.2% Chase%, 19.2% K%
Mookie Betts - 0.391 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 80.5% Contact%, 12.5% Chase%, 20.0% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.467 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 76.5% Contact%, 22.8% Chase%, 14.5% K%
Randy Arozarena - 0.432 xwOBA, 17.5% Brl%, 78.3% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 14.8% K%
Wander Franco - 0.383 xwOBA, 16.3% Brl%, 85.7% Contact%, 22.1% Chase%, 13.2% K%
Yandy Diaz - 0.451 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl%, 78.6% Contact%, 18.3% Chase%, 11.1% K%
So look, I’m a bit skeptical about all of this. I don’t really think a hitter can temporarily elevate their skills, that doesn’t seem to make any sense to me. I think streaks are the consequence of positive variance and poor pitching. I personally think that we should expect all of these hitters to just perform at their career averages in the short-term here rather than upgrading them in the short term because they have played well recently.
But almost nobody agrees with me on that, and people freaking love seeing this kind of stuff - so I’m giving it to you. Do with it what you will. If 90% of the world believes something, I suppose that would make it more likely to be true. Except if I myself am in the 10%, then I kind of think I’m right - because yeah, we always all think we’re right. But I’m severely misunderstood and I cry myself to sleep every night.
TREE UPDATE
It’s a big day for the tree we talked about yesterday. We have entered FAB, the Full Ass Bloom. I’ll admit it, it’s a pretty tree right now. What’s not going to be pretty is when all of those flowers are in my yard tomorrow.
So this Taj Bradley dude struck out eight hitters in five innings. That was surprising. Except he doesn’t show up on the whiffs leaders and he had just an 11.5% SwStr%.
Peyton Battenfield, on the other hand, had a 23.5% SwStr%! Griffin Canning had a mark of 21.7%! Remember Griffin Canning? Guy was a legit pitching prospect back in 2019 but has struggled in the Majors in a short sample and missed all of last year recovering from TJ. Keep an eye on that man!
Here are all the pitch mixes for the guys I just mentioned.
That’s quite a cutter! Peyton Cutterfield!
Strider vs. Greene went as hoped for, 44 whiffs between the two of them. Fun stuff.
Okay, I’m out of time, been falling behind on stuff for my real job. But hey if about 1,000 more of you become paid members I can quit that and really deliver every day!
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 23 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Hunter Greene (CIN): 21 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
3. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 20 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
4. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 18 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
5. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
6. Peyton Battenfield (CLE): 15 Whiffs (66 Pitches)
7. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Griffin Canning (LAA): 15 Whiffs (69 Pitches)
9. Jack Flaherty (STL): 13 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
10. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 13 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
1. Ross Stripling (SF): 12.3 SwStr%, 40.0 CSW%
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 23.5 SwStr%, 38.8 CSW%
3. Hunter Greene (CIN): 20.8 SwStr%, 37.6 CSW%
4. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 19.8 SwStr%, 37.4 CSW%
5. Griffin Canning (LAA): 21.7 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
6. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 19.4 SwStr%, 35.9 CSW%
7. Drey Jameson (ARI): 16.7 SwStr%, 35.2 CSW%
8. Taj Bradley (TB): 11.5 SwStr%, 34.6 CSW%
9. Peyton Battenfield (CLE): 22.7 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
10. Sonny Gray (MIN): 11.5 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
1. Hunter Greene - 6.0 IP - 82.75 JA Points
2. Kevin Gausman - 8.0 IP - 82.25 JA Points
3. Spencer Strider - 5.0 IP - 81.0 JA Points
4. Brad Keller - 6.67 IP - 62.5 JA Points
5. Logan Gilbert - 6.67 IP - 59.25 JA Points
6. Taj Bradley - 5.0 IP - 57.75 JA Points
7. Jack Flaherty - 5.33 IP - 55.5 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito - 6.0 IP - 54.25 JA Points
9. Nathan Eovaldi - 5.0 IP - 53.75 JA Points
10. Griffin Canning - 5.0 IP - 48.0 JA Points
1. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 2 GS - 66.59 JA Points
2. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 3 GS - 62.07 JA Points
3. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 3 GS - 61.48 JA Points
4. Pablo Lopez (MIN) - 3 GS - 51.4 JA Points
5. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 3 GS - 50.87 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 3 GS - 48.75 JA Points
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 3 GS - 47.6 JA Points
8. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 3 GS - 47.22 JA Points
9. Martin Perez (TEX) - 2 GS - 46.52 JA Points
10. Julio Urias (LAD) - 3 GS - 46.32 JA Points
Sonny Gray's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 3.6mph to 87.4
Drey Jameson's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.6
Jose Urquidy's CU velo (27 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 80.2
Sonny Gray's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.4
Alex Cobb's FS velo (25 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 91.2
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 82.4
Ross Stripling's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 84.2
Zack Wheeler's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 92.2
Rich Hill's FC velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.5
Brad Keller's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.3
Spencer Strider's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 83.8
Janson Junk's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -3.4mph to 84.6
Alex Cobb's SL usage (11.7%) up 10.6 points
Blake Snell's FF usage (72.0%) up 13.3 points
Brad Keller's CU usage (24.8%) up 23.0 points
Clarke Schmidt's ST usage (22.2%) up 15.3 points
Clarke Schmidt's FC usage (19.4%) up 12.9 points
Dean Kremer's FF usage (45.6%) up 12.2 points
Dean Kremer's ST usage (13.3%) up 12.4 points
Drey Jameson's SI usage (50.0%) up 20.3 points
Edward Cabrera's CU usage (39.0%) up 16.1 points
Jack Flaherty's SL usage (44.7%) up 17.1 points
Janson Junk's CH usage (24.1%) up 18.4 points
Jose Urena's SL usage (37.7%) up 13.2 points
Jose Urena's FF usage (26.0%) up 18.2 points
Jose Urquidy's CU usage (29.0%) up 12.1 points
Jose Urquidy's ST usage (12.9%) up 10.7 points
Ken Waldichuk's ST usage (18.7%) up 14.1 points
Logan Gilbert's FS usage (13.8%) up 13.5 points
Marcus Stroman's SV usage (27.6%) up 25.5 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (22.4%) up 10.3 points
Rich Hill's FC usage (33.7%) up 19.9 points
Sonny Gray's FC usage (22.1%) up 12.8 points
Zack Wheeler's ST usage (20.0%) up 19.2 points
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 50 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Drey Jameson - 48 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 70 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 68 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 50 TBF, 42.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 40.9% K%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 40.9% K%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 34.8% K%
Hunter Greene - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Kevin Gausman - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 37.9% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 50 TBF, 36.0% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 79 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 66 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 67 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 50 TBF, 67.6% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 71 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 77 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Alex Cobb - 63 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Johan Oviedo - 49 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 51 TBF, 58.8% GB%
German Marquez - 63 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 57 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 72 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Kyle Muller - 66 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 42 TBF, 35.7 K%, 0.0 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 79 TBF, 31.6 K%, 3.8 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Kris Bubic - 43 TBF, 30.2 K%, 2.3 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 67 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, 53.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 68 TBF, 27.9 K%, 4.4 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 50 TBF, 42.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 36.6 K%, 7.0 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Tyler Mahle - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, 55.2% GB%
Brent Rooker (OAK) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.D. Martinez (LAD) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jacob Stallings (MIA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Juan Soto (SD) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Max Muncy (LAD) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Myles Straw, Yesterday: 106.2 Previous High: 104.8
1. Vinnie Pasquantino - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
2. Alex Bregman - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
3. Jacob Stallings - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
4. Brent Rooker - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Thairo Estrada - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Juan Soto - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
7. Steven Kwan - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
8. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
9. Pete Alonso - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
10. Christian Bethancourt - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
1. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 52.0 PA - 230.0 JA Points
2. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 53.0 PA - 218.87 JA Points
3. Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 46.0 PA - 216.52 JA Points
4. Brandon Lowe (TB) - 37.0 PA - 207.57 JA Points
5. Adam Duvall (BOS) - 37.0 PA - 205.41 JA Points
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 57.0 PA - 190.88 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 45.0 PA - 190.22 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 55.0 PA - 170.18 JA Points
9. Randy Arozarena (TB) - 54.0 PA - 164.44 JA Points
10. Mike Trout (LAA) - 55.0 PA - 162.18 JA Points
Franchy Cordero (NYY) - 112.7mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.2mph - home_run
Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 111.7mph - home_run
Hunter Renfroe (LAA) - 111.6mph - nan
Franmil Reyes (KC) - 111.1mph - single
Jorge Mateo (BAL) - 110.8mph - single
James Outman (LAD) - 110.7mph - single
Alek Thomas (ARI) - 110.1mph - double
Eric Haase (DET) - 109.9mph - double
Sean Murphy (ATL) - 109.7mph - double
Brandon Lowe - 37 PA, 21 BIP, 7 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 52 PA, 37 BIP, 12 Brls, 32.4 Brl%
Max Muncy - 51 PA, 24 BIP, 7 Brls, 29.2 Brl%
Matt Olson - 61 PA, 29 BIP, 8 Brls, 27.6 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 50 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Bryan Reynolds - 53 PA, 46 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
MJ Melendez - 48 PA, 23 BIP, 6 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Brian Anderson - 44 PA, 23 BIP, 6 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 50 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 54 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 37 PA, 0.571 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 52 PA, 0.555 xwOBA
Adam Duvall - 37 PA, 0.519 xwOBA
Bryan Reynolds - 53 PA, 0.509 xwOBA
Jarred Kelenic - 41 PA, 0.502 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 55 PA, 0.491 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 60 PA, 0.485 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 57 PA, 0.475 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 55 PA, 0.467 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 58 PA, 0.466 xwOBA
Mauricio Dubon - 38 PA, 77 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 52 PA, 74 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 52 PA, 73 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 51 PA, 81 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Will Smith - 48 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 38 PA, 67 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 62 PA, 106 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 44 PA, 89 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 51 PA, 109 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 57 PA, 107 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
A bunch of stuff in the notes has been moved behind the paywall. For $7/month or $70/year, you will receive more detailed notes along with custom reports, dashboards, projections, and a ton more. 10% of your membership fees go directly to Samaritan’s Purse Charity.
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