It was a small enough slate to just show you the whole friggin thing on the pitching side yesterday:
Vince Freakin’ Velasquez! What a wild card. He got 18 whiffs! That’s the end of the good news though (well, besides the fact that he shutout the Cardinals for six innings). He gave up three barrels, six hard hit balls, and eight fly balls. Giving up that kind of contact is usually not going to end up well for you, but cha boy survived it. Why am I even talking about Velasquez? Well I guess it’s because I’m a fraud and I haven’t really given up my Pirates fanhood like I said I would on Monday. My wife and I watched most of the game (skipped the 5th-7th innings to watch Next Level Chef tho!!!), and it was pleasurable to watch them win. I guess you just can’t truly escape what you grew up with. Hundreds of hours for me as a kid watching Kevin Young, Tony Womack, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Ian Snell, and all of the rest - and that will never be gone from me.
In relevant fantasy news, Joe Ryan is looking like one of the bigger steals in 2023 fantasy drafts. He dominated the Yankees and won ME some DraftKings money (desperately needed):
He now has the third-highest K-BB% of any pitcher that has made three starts at 32%. I was going to give you the top ten, but hey that’s in the notes every day below!
His 17% SwStr% is sixth-best in the league (still using that 3 GS minimum). Those leaders:
deGrom 20.9%
Strider 19.3%
McClanahan 19.2%
Lopez 19.2%
Luzardo 17.7%
Ryan 17.5%
Lodolo 16.7%
Springs 16.1%
Urquidy 15.6%
Greene 15.5%
I tweeted out a thread the other day about Pitching+ and Stuff+ and how they relate to fantasy points.
https://twitter.com/JonPgh/status/1646294218795524096?s=20
Long story short, Pitching+ is actually a better predictor of box score performance, which is really the game we’re playing. They tell me that Stuff+ is more stable. That makes sense because Stuff+ is just about how you’re releasing the ball. It’s easy to release the ball the same way every time, it’s not as easy to locate it pristinely as well. Stuff+ is useful, but for the purposes of this blog I think I’m going to rely more heavily on Pitching+. So here goes the Pitching+ leaderboard (once again, all of this data comes from my guy Drew_Haugen so check him out if you’re not following.
this data does not include yesterday’s games
If you’re a paid subscriber, you have access to the Google sheet, and this stuff is on the main Tableau dashboard as well.
We’re still in FAB mode over here with #JATreeWatch
If you don’t know what I’m talking about then you haven’t been reading the notes this week and you are dead to me.
I’m keeping the hot & cold player trackers free for a few more days, but what I giveth, I will taketh - by next week it’ll be behind the paywall where all of your dreams come true.
Some names that are POPPING over there:
Kutter Crawford is HOT (aka he’s just actually kinda good and showing it). He has a 26.4% K%, a 3.8% BB%, and a 16.8% SwStr% this year. Except I just realized he was demoted and then brought back and now is in a bullpen role. So I guess that makes this a moot point. For all of the Red Sox problems, they do have a pretty deep rotation.
Yandy Diaz is elevating the ball
Last year the average launch angle was 7.7, this year it is 14.9.
Do I believe this? I don’t know. I’m not sure why he would have overhauled his swing this offseason after all of the real-life success he has had in his time with the Rays. I am more likely to believe a launch angle change if it was a hitter that clearly needed to change it, but Yandy was doing fine without it - so I’m not sure why he would’ve done anything to change. But if he is hitting more fly balls then watch out it’s going to be a bust-out year for him.
I also added the COLD HITTER TRACKER back. Those names right now:
Gunnar Henderson - 35.9% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.897 Cold Rating
Chris Taylor - 41.1% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.894 Cold Rating
Enrique Hernandez - 29.8% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 29.7% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Trevor Larnach - 40.7% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Jose Abreu - 37.0% Whiff%, 67.6% Weak%, 0.853 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 29.5% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Bryan De La Cruz - 36.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating
Christian Walker - 30.8% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating
Jazz Chisholm - 40.0% Whiff%, 65.4% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating
There are two options when you’re looking at a cold hitter.
They are cold (whatever that means)
They stink
You will quite often find hitters here that just shouldn’t be in the Majors, but that’s not really the case right now. Interesting names there for sure, do what you will!
I have it listed as a recommendation here, but if you’re not subscribed to Eric Samulski’s Sunday Tribute - I think you should be. If you like these notes, you’ll like his. He writes once a week and gives you a summary of the last week every Sunday. Many a time I have read it in the bathroom at church on Sunday mornings. Good stuff!
One more thing - Fernando Tatis Jr. scored 60 fantasy points last night for the El Paso Chihuahuas.
It’s not breaking news that Tatis can murder minor league pitching, but this is at least a vote of confidence that his shoulder is currently configured as it should be.
Now, onward to the report! The next two days will be briefer as weekend mornings usually are, but I do plan on adding more stuff to the automated reports - specifically minor league stuff. It’s not real useful to know what happened yesterday, so I’m going to develop some full-season leaderboards and maybe even some “magic formula qualifiers” for down on the farm.
Have a dope weekend, readers!
1. Vince Velasquez (PIT): 18 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
2. Joe Ryan (MIN): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
4. Corey Kluber (BOS): 14 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
5. Nick Martinez (SD): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
6. Ian Hamilton (NYY): 12 Whiffs (47 Pitches)
7. Spencer Turnbull (DET): 11 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
8. Bailey Falter (PHI): 11 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
9. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 10 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
10. Jordan Montgomery (STL): 9 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
1. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 15.5 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
2. Joe Ryan (MIN): 16.3 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
3. Vince Velasquez (PIT): 18.9 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
4. Jordan Montgomery (STL): 9.4 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
5. Spencer Turnbull (DET): 12.5 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
6. Corey Kluber (BOS): 18.4 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
7. Nick Martinez (SD): 13.0 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
8. Colten Brewer (NYY): 9.6 SwStr%, 28.8 CSW%
9. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 9.3 SwStr%, 27.1 CSW%
10. Bailey Falter (PHI): 11.7 SwStr%, 25.5 CSW%
1. Joe Ryan - 7.0 IP - 90.0 JA Points
2. Corey Kluber - 4.67 IP - 57.0 JA Points
3. Ian Hamilton - 3.0 IP - 53.5 JA Points
4. Nick Lodolo - 5.0 IP - 46.5 JA Points
5. Spencer Turnbull - 5.0 IP - 45.25 JA Points
6. Jordan Montgomery - 6.33 IP - 39.75 JA Points
7. Jeffrey Springs - 3.0 IP - 38.0 JA Points
8. Vince Velasquez - 6.0 IP - 37.75 JA Points
9. Braden Bristo - 3.0 IP - 37.25 JA Points
10. Colin Rea - 5.67 IP - 36.5 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 3 GS - 62.07 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 3 GS - 61.48 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 3 GS - 60.79 JA Points
4. Jeffrey Springs (TB) - 3 GS - 60.16 JA Points
5. Pablo Lopez (MIN) - 3 GS - 51.4 JA Points
6. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 3 GS - 50.87 JA Points
7. Joe Ryan (MIN) - 3 GS - 50.76 JA Points
8. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 3 GS - 48.75 JA Points
9. Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 3 GS - 47.6 JA Points
10. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 3 GS - 47.22 JA Points
Joe Ryan's ST velo (11 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 83.0
Joe Ryan's FS velo (23 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 85.1
Nick Lodolo's CU velo (41 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 79.7
Nick Martinez's SI velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.3
Vince Velasquez's SL velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.8
Spencer Turnbull's SL velo (30 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 82.5
Adam Oller's FF usage (67.2%) up 18.8 points
Bailey Falter's FF usage (47.9%) up 15.0 points
Bailey Falter's CH usage (14.9%) up 10.4 points
Cole Irvin's FF usage (51.2%) up 12.9 points
Colten Brewer's SL usage (39.2%) up 15.7 points
Corey Kluber's CH usage (23.7%) up 13.1 points
Joe Ryan's FS usage (25.0%) up 23.1 points
Nick Lodolo's FF usage (46.4%) up 12.8 points
Nick Lodolo's CU usage (42.3%) up 10.9 points
Spencer Turnbull's SL usage (34.1%) up 16.3 points
Jeffrey Springs - 55 TBF, 42.7% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 74 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Drey Jameson - 48 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 70 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 68 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 55 TBF, 43.6% K%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 40.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 40.9% K%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Nick Lodolo - 74 TBF, 36.5% K%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 36.2% K%
Hunter Greene - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 34.8% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Kevin Gausman - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 37.9% K-BB%
Jeffrey Springs - 55 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 79 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 66 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 50 TBF, 67.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 77 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 71 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Alex Cobb - 63 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Johan Oviedo - 49 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 51 TBF, 58.8% GB%
German Marquez - 63 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 57 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 72 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Kyle Muller - 66 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Nick Lodolo - +3.7% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Luis Castillo - +2.5% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +2.2% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
George Kirby - +3.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Brent Rooker (OAK) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Carlos Correa (MIN) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Michael A. Taylor (MIN) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Cedric Mullins II, Yesterday: 110.7 Previous High: 110.1
1. Carlos Correa - 4.0 PA - 62.0 JA Points
2. Esteury Ruiz - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
3. Rodolfo Castro - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
4. Connor Joe - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
5. Brent Rooker - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
6. Rowdy Tellez - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
7. Anthony Rizzo - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
8. Kyle Schwarber - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
9. Michael A. Taylor - 4.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
10. Terrin Vavra - 4.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
1. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 52.0 PA - 230.0 JA Points
2. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 54.0 PA - 207.41 JA Points
3. Adam Duvall (BOS) - 37.0 PA - 205.41 JA Points
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 61.0 PA - 193.44 JA Points
5. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 49.0 PA - 191.02 JA Points
6. Brandon Lowe (TB) - 41.0 PA - 190.24 JA Points
7. Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 50.0 PA - 184.8 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 59.0 PA - 164.07 JA Points
9. Mike Trout (LAA) - 55.0 PA - 162.18 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 56.0 PA - 162.14 JA Points
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 113.4mph - foul
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) - 111.3mph - field_out
Rougned Odor (SD) - 111.1mph - foul
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 111.0mph - home_run
Cedric Mullins II (BAL) - 110.7mph - foul
Alec Burleson (STL) - 110.6mph - field_out
Jorge Mateo (BAL) - 109.6mph - force_out
Bo Bichette (TOR) - 109.6mph - single
Manny Machado (SD) - 109.1mph - grounded_into_double_play
Nelson Cruz (SD) - 108.8mph - field_out
Brandon Lowe - 41 PA, 23 BIP, 8 Brls, 34.8 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 52 PA, 37 BIP, 12 Brls, 32.4 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 32 PA, 19 BIP, 6 Brls, 31.6 Brl%
Ji-Man Choi - 32 PA, 17 BIP, 5 Brls, 29.4 Brl%
Max Muncy - 51 PA, 24 BIP, 7 Brls, 29.2 Brl%
Matt Olson - 61 PA, 29 BIP, 8 Brls, 27.6 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 50 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Luke Raley - 32 PA, 19 BIP, 5 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 58 PA, 38 BIP, 10 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
MJ Melendez - 48 PA, 23 BIP, 6 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 41 PA, 0.558 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 52 PA, 0.555 xwOBA
Adam Duvall - 37 PA, 0.519 xwOBA
Bryan Reynolds - 54 PA, 0.503 xwOBA
Jarred Kelenic - 41 PA, 0.502 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 55 PA, 0.491 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 60 PA, 0.485 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 61 PA, 0.476 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 62 PA, 0.466 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 59 PA, 0.466 xwOBA
Mauricio Dubon - 38 PA, 77 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 52 PA, 73 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 51 PA, 81 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 56 PA, 79 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Will Smith - 48 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 62 PA, 106 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 44 PA, 89 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 57 PA, 107 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 50 PA, 74 Swings, 86.5 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 56 PA, 121 Swings, 86.0 Cont%
Randy Arozarena - +4.3% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -6.6 Chase%
Bo Bichette - +10.0% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -20.2 Chase%
Nico Hoerner - +8.4% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -6.2 Chase%
Jarred Kelenic - +8.6% Contact%, +9.6 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Brandon Nimmo - +5.7% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -4.7 Chase%
Brandon Lowe - +3.5% Contact%, +7.4 mph exit velo, -5.9 Chase%
Corey Seager - +12.7% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -17.1 Chase%
Franchy Cordero - +4.9% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -8.0 Chase%
Adley Rutschman - 0.421 xwOBA, 11.9% Brl%, 84.1% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 15.3% K%
Bryan Reynolds - 0.503 xwOBA, 25.5% Brl%, 77.3% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 9.3% K%
Corey Seager - 0.41 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 16.3% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Kyle Tucker - 0.462 xwOBA, 16.2% Brl%, 79.2% Contact%, 22.6% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Matt Chapman - 0.555 xwOBA, 32.4% Brl%, 79.1% Contact%, 23.2% Chase%, 19.2% K%
Mookie Betts - 0.391 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 80.5% Contact%, 12.5% Chase%, 20.0% K%
Randy Arozarena - 0.408 xwOBA, 16.3% Brl%, 75.6% Contact%, 24.8% Chase%, 15.5% K%
Yandy Diaz - 0.446 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 78.7% Contact%, 17.5% Chase%, 10.2% K%
Gunnar Henderson - 35.9% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.897 Cold Rating
Chris Taylor - 41.1% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.894 Cold Rating
Enrique Hernandez - 29.8% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 29.7% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Trevor Larnach - 40.7% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Jose Abreu - 37.0% Whiff%, 67.6% Weak%, 0.853 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 29.5% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Bryan De La Cruz - 36.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating
Christian Walker - 30.8% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating
Jazz Chisholm - 40.0% Whiff%, 65.4% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD): 5/6, 3R, 3HR, 8RBI, 0SB, 60FPts
Yorman Rodriguez (SD): 3/4, 2R, 2HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 43FPts
Tyler Freeman (CLE): 5/6, 5R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 42FPts
Matt McLain (CIN): 3/5, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 2SB, 34FPts
Darren Baker (WSH): 4/5, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 34FPts
Mickey Moniak (LAA): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Alfonso Rivas (SD): 2/4, 3R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Michael Busch (LAD): 3/4, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Matt Reynolds (CIN): 4/4, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0SB, 31FPts
Diego Cartaya (LAD): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Andrew Abbott (CIN): 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 14K, 0BB, 44FPts
Tanner Bibee (CLE): 6IP, 1H, 0ER, 8K, 2BB, 31FPts
Joey Lucchesi (NYM): 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 1BB, 29FPts
Bryce Jarvis (ARI): 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 8K, 0BB, 27FPts
Dakota Hudson (STL): 6IP, 8H, 0ER, 7K, 0BB, 26FPts
Michael McGreevy (STL): 7IP, 4H, 1ER, 4K, 0BB, 24FPts
Easton McGee (SEA): 7IP, 3H, 1ER, 6K, 0BB, 23FPts
Robbie Erlin (LAD): 5IP, 5H, 2ER, 8K, 1BB, 23FPts
Ricky Tiedemann (TOR): 3IP, 2H, 0ER, 9K, 0BB, 23FPts
Joey Estes (OAK): 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 0BB, 22FPts
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