MLB Daily Notes - April 14th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Took a trip to the Toledo Zoo yesterday and I have got to say, there are some really bad parents out there. Like 20-grade patience. One lady was just ripping into her kids like I have never heard before, just completely losing it. I know that kids can be really frustrating, and people have differing levels of being able to deal with it, but you have got to learn to control yourself with your kids. And for the people who can’t keep it together in public, I really wonder how bad stuff gets at home.
But a screaming mom isn’t as bad to me as a passive father, which seems to be the norm. I see these dads all the time that are just there, they don’t seem to be involved or in any form of a leadership role. That’s not it! But I guess they do get partial credit for at least being there.
I’m talking a big game here like I’m Ward Cleaver or something. God has blessed me with a high amount of patience and peace, but I am definitely incredibly selfish. At least my impulses are, I am self-aware enough to not most of them come out, I can tell what a self a-hole I’d be if I never practiced restraint or forced myself to do the right thing that I didn’t truly want to do, but I think that’s the game here. Nobody really wants to be good, we have to just force ourselves to be good, and the more you do that, the easier it gets.
I have amazingly well-behaved kids as well, and at least 90% of the credit there goes to my wife. She is just an unbelievably good wife and mother, and I don’t use that word unseriously. It’s hard to believe a person could actually be as good as she is. Shout out to her.
I’m currently putting a beating on Producer Lee in the home league. I have a real shot to take a 10-2 decision here today if these pitcher outings go well. I have miraculously avoided injury in the pitching staff
Burnes
Ragans
Luzardo
Imanaga
Snell
King
Jared Jones
And then I’ve been streaming like a mad man trying to find a few more guys to stick. That hasn’t been successful, but I’ve got Jeffrey Springs, Gavin Williams and Emmet Sheehan as IL stashes.
Bobby Miller is the latest victim, going down with a shoulder injury. They say there’s no structural damage, so this doesn’t seem like a “he’ll have surgery next week” situation, but it’s not at all what you want to see. I didn’t draft him a single time either, shout out to me. That wasn’t because I didn’t want him, it was because I just didn’t like the price and no league ever let him get to the point where I’d pull the trigger.
Overall, my draft strategy of avoiding the top pitchers has worked marvelously well. And that’s just because of injury, which wasn’t even the reason I was avoiding them.
So that begs the question, if you get something RIGHT for the WRONG reasons, were you REALLY RIGHT?
Your K-BB% leaders for healthy pitchers with at least three starts so far:
Peralta 36%
Jones 32%
Ryan 31%
Detmers 31%
Crochet 31%
Gore 27%
Gilbert 26%
Yamamoto 26%
Burnes 26%
Suarez 25%
Very interesting day for pitching yesterday. Some fantasy-available names were putting up numbers while I was looking at jelly fish.
Gore went for an 11:1 K:BB and that sick 22% SwStr%. It was against the Athletics, sure, but whatever. That was the third-best start against the A’s this year (Bieber hung 36.5 fantasy points on them and Houck went for a 35.7 mark, Gore was at 34.3 yesterday).
Starting pitchers collectively have a 3.17 ERA with a 29.2% K% and a 6.9% BB% against Oakland this year, so it really is just a truly incredible matchup.
But I don’t want to take too much away from Gore here. He’s earning strikes at a great clip (51%) and the SwStr% is through the roof right now at 15.8%.
The four-seamer is so much better than last year, at least so far in the early going. He has improved the Stuff+ on the pitch big-time, so that’s a good sign that the improvements can stick around. If he can hold that Ball% at under 38%, I think he’s going to be a good to very good pitcher.
I liked Gore a lot in draft season, so I have quite a few shares. And Since I’m taking a MacKenzie Gore victory lap, I have to take the walk of shame [or whatever the opposite of a victory lap would be] on Griffin Canning. He’s rocking a sweet 4.67 SIERA right now and he gave up six more earnies yesterday. There’s nothing redeeming under the hood either with a 44% Strike%, 9.7% SwStr%, and 37% Ball%. He is way worse than last year, and way worse than I thought. The good news is that he probably didn’t cost you much and you can just drop him if you haven’t already. The other good news is that Producer Lee drafted him and started him against me last night - sucka!
The numbers on Max Meyer now:
21.5% K%, 4.6% BB%, 16.2% SwStr%, 42% Strike%, 39% Ball%
So that’s a very strange line. The 16.2% SwStr% would imply a much higher K%, but the 39% Ball% would imply a much higher BB%, and the 42% Strike% means he’s hardly getting any called strikes.
If it weren’t for the super high SwStr%, I’d be calling him a sell. I’m still not convinced on him, because it doesn’t seem like he has the best command, so I’ll definitely watch him closely in his next few starts.
Nick Lodolo debuted and showed us that he is the Reds best pitcher. To yank on my own chain one more time, I knew he was better than Hunter Greene from the very beginning. Greene had more hype, but the numbers liked Lodolo better. Now, I’d rather have Greene in the future given the health questions, but there’s little question that Lodolo is an incredibly good pitcher.
I believe this four-seamer usage is up a lot from what we saw prior. A quick look at the numbers shows that this was a change he made last year though.
He was 25% sinker in 2022 but 5% last year, and that’s exactly how he used it yesterday. Heavy four-seam usage and a lot of excellent curveballs. That should work fine given how nasty he is.
I think I’m going to cut my grass for the first time today.
Triston McKenzie is probably a drop at this point. He threw 84 pitches and got two whiffs while giving up five earnies in four innings. He looks just horrible this year (6% SwStr%, 44% Ball%).
I want nothing to do with any pitcher near the bottom-left of this plot. It’s too early to say these dots can’t move a ton, but we have plenty of signal in three starts worth of data when we’re looking at these types of metrics. McKenzie is broken, run for the hills.
Spencer Turnbull also let you down, he had a sub-40% Strike% and a 45.5% Ball%. That guy cannot afford to not have great command, and he didn’t have it yesterday. His SwStr% is now below 10% with a 38% Ball%. Bad! Decent streamer option in good matchups though.
I think a good strategy this year is just to stream as many dudes against the Athletics and White Sox as possible (at least until Luis Robert returns), but didn’t I say that yesterday?
The player prop algo went wild on the strikeout unders yesterday and it was a printfest:
The rough tracking sheet I’ve set up says +24 units this year. It’s entirely automated, so that opens up some possibilities for bugs and whatnot. But I can promise you I don’t have my thumb on the scale. What it does is just constantly monitor the prop betting sheet for values above 0.15, and if it finds one, it slaps them in a big list. And then the next day, after it gets the real-life results, it compares those with that big list, does the math, and spits it all out into that sheet. I’ve also set up a Tableau for my own fun. It’s not updated from yesterday’s +7 unit explosion, but here it is:
I’m still not going to say you can definitely be a profitable prop bettor with my stuff, I just don’t want to take that responsibility. I’m not betting hardly at all myself so the accountability factor is low here, but I’m trying to do my best to track things and give subs the tools to do this all as smartly and responsibly as possible.
That’ll do it, on to the reports!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Joe Ryan
2. MacKenzie Gore
3. Max Meyer
4. Nick Lodolo
5. Chris Sale
6. Ryan Pepiot
7. Yariel Rodriguez
8. Gavin Stone
9. Matt Manning
10. Clarke Schmidt
11. Garrett Crochet
12. Griffin Canning
13. Marco Gonzales
14. Ryne Nelson
15. Ronel Blanco
16. Sean Manaea
17. Alec Marsh
18. Cooper Criswell
19. Emerson Hancock
20. Simeon Woods Richardson
21. Kenta Maeda
22. DL Hall
23. Carlos Carrasco
24. Matt Waldron
25. Joe Boyle
26. Logan Webb
27. Andrew Heaney
28. Dakota Hudson
29. Cody Poteet
30. Kyle Gibson
31. Dean Kremer
32. Shota Imanaga
33. Spencer Turnbull
34. Triston McKenzie
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo (vs. CWS): 35.56 Points
2. MacKenzie Gore (vs. OAK): 34.25 Points
3. Joe Ryan (vs. DET): 31.3 Points
4. Max Meyer (vs. ATL): 25.9 Points
5. Simeon Woods Richardson (vs. DET): 23.7 Points
6. Clarke Schmidt (vs. CLE): 22.45 Points
7. Logan Webb (vs. TB): 21.55 Points
8. Cody Poteet (vs. CLE): 19.9 Points
9. Shota Imanaga (vs. SEA): 19.79 Points
10. Gavin Stone (vs. SD): 19.41 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Meyer (MIA): 23 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
2. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 20 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Joe Ryan (MIN): 19 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
4. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
5. Chris Sale (ATL): 16 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
6. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
7. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 15 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
8. Gavin Stone (LAD): 14 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
9. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 13 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
10. Sean Manaea (NYM): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Joe Ryan (MIN): 59.4 Strike%, 27.1 Ball%
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 59.3 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
3. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 57.8 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
4. Matt Manning (DET): 54.3 Strike%, 26.1 Ball%
5. Yariel Rodriguez (TOR): 52.9 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
6. Griffin Canning (LAA): 52.9 Strike%, 27.1 Ball%
7. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 52.2 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
8. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 50.6 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
9. Cooper Criswell (BOS): 50.6 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
10. Chris Sale (ATL): 50.0 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
11. Marco Gonzales (PIT): 50.0 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
12. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 49.4 Strike%, 41.2 Ball%
13. Carson Fulmer (LAA): 48.4 Strike%, 38.7 Ball%
14. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 47.5 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
15. Alec Marsh (KC): 46.7 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Emerson Hancock: 74 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.11 POUT
2. Cody Poteet: 77 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.28 POUT
3. Gavin Stone: 88 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.4 POUT
4. Simeon Woods Richardson: 80 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.44 POUT
5. Ryne Nelson: 81 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.5 POUT
6. Logan Webb: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
7. Matt Manning: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
8. Kenta Maeda: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
9. Chris Sale: 102 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.86 POUT
10. Marco Gonzales: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryne Nelson's FC velo (25 pitches) UP 5.1mph to 91.4
Joe Ryan's FS velo (23 pitches) UP 4.0mph to 88.3
Cooper Criswell's FC velo (10 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 85.6
Joe Ryan's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 86.0
Joe Ryan's ST velo (12 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 81.2
Chris Sale's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.9
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 90.4
Simeon Woods Richardson's SL velo (24 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.3
Sean Manaea's CH velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.2
DL Hall's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.9
Andrew Heaney's FF velo (49 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.7
Triston McKenzie's CU velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 76.1
Griffin Canning's FF velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 92.5
Garrett Crochet's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 82.2
Griffin Canning's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 87.8
Sean Manaea's FF velo (43 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 91.2
Sean Manaea's ST velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 76.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alec Marsh's SL usage (28.9%) up 11.9 points
Carlos Carrasco's ST usage (11.4%) up 10.1 points
Carson Fulmer's SL usage (30.6%) up 13.7 points
Chris Devenski's FC usage (25.5%) up 22.7 points
Clarke Schmidt's FC usage (44.7%) up 15.5 points
Cooper Criswell's CH usage (26.5%) up 11.4 points
DL Hall's CU usage (26.7%) up 16.5 points
Gavin Stone's SI usage (34.1%) up 15.1 points
Joe Ryan's SL usage (15.6%) up 10.5 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (27.1%) up 26.1 points
Marco Gonzales's SI usage (14.4%) up 11.4 points
Matt Manning's ST usage (38.0%) up 32.6 points
Matt Waldron's ST usage (22.6%) up 17.7 points
Ronel Blanco's FF usage (52.7%) up 11.7 points
Ronel Blanco's CH usage (24.7%) up 10.6 points
Ryne Nelson's FC usage (30.9%) up 15.9 points
Sean Manaea's FC usage (12.4%) up 10.6 points
Spencer Turnbull's ST usage (26.1%) up 16.6 points
Triston McKenzie's CU usage (32.1%) up 12.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 72 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 70 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Max Meyer - 65 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Brady Singer - 69 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 40.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 39.4% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 70 TBF, 37.1% K%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 35.2% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Jared Jones - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Ryan Pepiot - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 70 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Jared Jones - 72 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 66 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Ranger Suarez - 63 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 69 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 63 TBF, 65.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 68 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Keaton Winn - 66 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Logan Allen - 67 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 65 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 65 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Michael Soroka - 64 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 69 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Martin Perez - 78 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Cole Ragans - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 35.2 K%, 4.5 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 63 TBF, 30.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 65.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 45 TBF, 44.4 K%, 2.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 30.8 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 57 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Zac Gallen - 66 TBF, 28.8 K%, 7.6 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Martin Perez - +3.8% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Tanner Houck - +2.6% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Zack Wheeler - +2.0% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Cole Ragans - +4.3% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Dakota Hudson - +2.3% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.6% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Joe Ryan - +4.7% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Logan Allen - +4.3% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +4.6% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Brayan Bello - +2.1% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Graham Ashcraft - +7.9% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +6.9% CSW%, -8.0 BB%
Kyle Muller - +5.9% CSW%, -7.8 BB%
Shane Bieber - +4.4% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Pete Alonso (NYM) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Thairo Estrada (SF) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Masyn Winn, Yesterday: 108.4 Previous High: 108.3
Hardest Hit Balls
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.2mph - double
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - 112.8mph - single
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 112.3mph - nan
Triston Casas (BOS) - 111.9mph - home_run
Mike Trout (LAA) - 111.2mph - nan
Victor Caratini (HOU) - 111.1mph - single
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 111.1mph - double
Matt Olson (ATL) - 111.0mph - nan
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 111.0mph - home_run
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.4mph - single
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