Hello and happy Saturday! I don’t have time to get into anything, but did want to mention that I threw in another tab on the pitching projections sheet. It grades each lineup on an adjusted OPS basis:
This will give us an idea of what lineups are the toughest and softest, and of course it will update along with the lineups as they come out.
There were some really interesting pitching performances last night. Justin Steele continues to prove me wrong, and Johan Oviedo looked ace-like for the Bucs. Meanwhile, Brady Singer had one of the weirdest lines you’ll ever see.
https://twitter.com/RotoSurgeon/status/1647048338615975936?s=
Apologies for Kev’s horrifyingly crude language there, what a jackass.
I guess tweets don’t embed into Substack the way they used to now? So you have to click it to see it? That’s pretty annoying. Muskdaddy really is being a pain. Here’s a picture of the tweet #workaround.
Okay on to the goods. The hot/cold stuff is still free - but all of the streamers and magic formula qualifiers (the most valuable part of the notes IMO) is behind the paywall. Subscribe for full access to the notes, the dashboards, the projections, and so much more.
1. Justin Steele (CHC): 17 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. Noah Syndergaard (LAD): 16 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
3. Brady Singer (KC): 14 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
4. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
5. Luis Garcia (HOU): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
6. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
7. Tyler Wells (BAL): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
8. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Louie Varland (MIN): 12 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
10. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
1. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 14.0 SwStr%, 37.6 CSW%
2. Brady Singer (KC): 16.5 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
3. Noah Syndergaard (LAD): 17.4 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
4. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 13.3 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Jake Woodford (STL): 6.2 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
6. Jakob Junis (SF): 11.6 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
7. Joey Wentz (DET): 11.7 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
8. Justin Steele (CHC): 16.8 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
9. Louie Varland (MIN): 14.5 SwStr%, 31.3 CSW%
10. Jose Berrios (TOR): 13.0 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
1. Johan Oviedo - 7.0 IP - 71.5 JA Points
2. Justin Steele - 7.0 IP - 62.75 JA Points
3. Nestor Cortes - 7.0 IP - 58.5 JA Points
4. Joey Wentz - 5.67 IP - 54.5 JA Points
5. Trevor Rogers - 6.0 IP - 54.25 JA Points
6. Noah Syndergaard - 6.0 IP - 51.0 JA Points
7. Jose Berrios - 5.0 IP - 46.5 JA Points
8. Patrick Sandoval - 3.67 IP - 45.0 JA Points
9. Tanner Houck - 4.0 IP - 38.25 JA Points
10. Louie Varland - 6.0 IP - 37.25 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 3 GS - 62.07 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 3 GS - 61.48 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 3 GS - 60.79 JA Points
4. Pablo Lopez (MIN) - 3 GS - 51.4 JA Points
5. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 3 GS - 50.87 JA Points
6. Joe Ryan (MIN) - 3 GS - 50.76 JA Points
7. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 3 GS - 48.75 JA Points
8. Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 3 GS - 47.6 JA Points
9. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 3 GS - 47.22 JA Points
10. Julio Urias (LAD) - 3 GS - 46.32 JA Points
Bryse Wilson's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 3.9mph to 87.6
Johan Oviedo's SL velo (37 pitches) UP 3.6mph to 89.7
Sean Manaea's SI velo (54 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 94.6
Trevor Rogers's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 83.3
Louie Varland's FF velo (24 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 96.2
Sean Manaea's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 84.0
Louie Varland's FC velo (32 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 91.4
Johan Oviedo's CU velo (28 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 81.1
Louie Varland's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 85.6
Joey Wentz's FC velo (22 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 85.9
Tanner Houck's FC velo (14 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 92.0
Jakob Junis's SI velo (20 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.5
Nestor Cortes's ST velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 76.9
Trevor Rogers's FF velo (39 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.0
Madison Bumgarner's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.6
Brady Singer's SL velo (46 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.9
Andre Jackson's FF velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 93.6
Drew Rasmussen's FC velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 88.6
Taijuan Walker's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.1
Michael Wacha's CH velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 82.3
James Kaprielian's SI velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 92.0
Tanner Houck's SL velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.4
Trevor Williams's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 76.6
Noah Syndergaard's SI velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.5
Jose Berrios's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 82.5
Noah Syndergaard's CH velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 86.3
Eric Lauer's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 75.9
Eric Lauer's FF velo (38 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 90.8
Luis Garcia's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 78.7
Eric Lauer's FC velo (30 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 86.8
Eric Lauer's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 83.4
Tyler Wells's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -3.3mph to 84.1
James Kaprielian's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -3.7mph to 81.1
Brady Singer's SL usage (54.1%) up 16.3 points
Charlie Morton's CU usage (49.4%) up 11.7 points
Connor Overton's FF usage (38.2%) up 13.8 points
Eric Lauer's FC usage (31.9%) up 11.7 points
Jake Woodford's SI usage (54.3%) up 16.2 points
Jake Woodford's ST usage (21.0%) up 15.9 points
Jakob Junis's SL usage (63.8%) up 11.7 points
James Kaprielian's SI usage (28.4%) up 21.5 points
Johan Oviedo's CU usage (30.1%) up 17.9 points
Jose Berrios's SV usage (24.7%) up 21.6 points
Louie Varland's FC usage (38.6%) up 20.1 points
Mike Clevinger's FF usage (62.0%) up 17.8 points
Nestor Cortes's ST usage (20.4%) up 19.6 points
Noah Syndergaard's CH usage (47.1%) up 16.8 points
Patrick Sandoval's SL usage (41.1%) up 12.3 points
Sean Manaea's SL usage (25.6%) up 11.1 points
Tanner Houck's FC usage (15.6%) up 13.5 points
Trevor Rogers's SI usage (24.0%) up 22.6 points
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 74 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 70 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 68 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Brady Singer - 69 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 40.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 40.9% K%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Nick Lodolo - 74 TBF, 36.5% K%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 36.2% K%
Hunter Greene - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 34.8% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Kevin Gausman - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Jacob deGrom - 66 TBF, 37.9% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 71 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 79 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 66 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 69 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
Marcus Stroman - 71 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 77 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 65 TBF, 65.9% GB%
Alex Cobb - 63 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Justin Steele - 72 TBF, 59.6% GB%
German Marquez - 63 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 72 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Kyle Muller - 66 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Nick Martinez - 78 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Bailey Falter - 62 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Johan Oviedo - +3.8% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Nick Lodolo - +3.7% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.0% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Noah Syndergaard - +4.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Luis Castillo - +2.5% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +2.2% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
George Kirby - +3.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Amed Rosario (CLE) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Bell (CLE) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luis Campusano (SD) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nelson Cruz (SD) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Sean Murphy (ATL) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Yan Gomes (CHC) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Austin Hays, Yesterday: 110.5 Previous High: 110.3
Jose Azocar, Yesterday: 108.9 Previous High: 108.2
1. Ian Happ - 5.0 PA - 103.0 JA Points
2. Thairo Estrada - 6.0 PA - 62.0 JA Points
3. Adley Rutschman - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Luis Garcia - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Amed Rosario - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
6. Luis Guillorme - 6.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
7. Jose Ramirez - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
8. Javier Baez - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
9. Evan Longoria - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
10. Sean Murphy - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
1. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 56.0 PA - 212.14 JA Points
2. Adam Duvall (BOS) - 37.0 PA - 205.41 JA Points
3. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 53.0 PA - 183.4 JA Points
4. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 58.0 PA - 182.76 JA Points
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 66.0 PA - 169.7 JA Points
6. Brandon Lowe (TB) - 45.0 PA - 163.56 JA Points
7. Corey Seager (TEX) - 49.0 PA - 161.63 JA Points
8. Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 45.0 PA - 160.89 JA Points
9. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 67.0 PA - 159.4 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 48.0 PA - 158.33 JA Points
George Springer (TOR) - 115.9mph - home_run
Franchy Cordero (NYY) - 113.7mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.4mph - single
Ian Happ (CHC) - 112.4mph - single
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) - 112.1mph - nan
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 111.8mph - field_out
Max Muncy (LAD) - 111.1mph - home_run
Sean Murphy (ATL) - 111.0mph - nan
Daulton Varsho (TOR) - 110.9mph - nan
Sam Hilliard (ATL) - 110.9mph - home_run
Max Muncy - 55 PA, 26 BIP, 8 Brls, 30.8 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 56 PA, 39 BIP, 12 Brls, 30.8 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 45 PA, 26 BIP, 8 Brls, 30.8 Brl%
Matt Olson - 66 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 53 PA, 36 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.8 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 37 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Austin Hays - 54 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Jarred Kelenic - 45 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Bryan Reynolds - 58 PA, 50 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
James Outman - 49 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 56 PA, 0.535 xwOBA
Brandon Lowe - 45 PA, 0.527 xwOBA
Adam Duvall - 37 PA, 0.519 xwOBA
Jarred Kelenic - 45 PA, 0.516 xwOBA
Bryan Reynolds - 58 PA, 0.489 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 61 PA, 0.487 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 67 PA, 0.482 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 64 PA, 0.471 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 53 PA, 0.466 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 66 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Mauricio Dubon - 42 PA, 86 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 61 PA, 83 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 52 PA, 73 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Luis Garcia - 34 PA, 61 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 56 PA, 85 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Will Smith - 48 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 67 PA, 112 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 62 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 48 PA, 97 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 61 PA, 130 Swings, 86.2 Cont%
Paul Goldschmidt - +3.1% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -3.6 Chase%
Adley Rutschman - +5.4% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -7.1 Chase%
Nico Hoerner - +6.0% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -4.6 Chase%
Bo Bichette - +9.7% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -23.4 Chase%
Jarred Kelenic - +6.5% Contact%, +10.7 mph exit velo, -6.3 Chase%
Giancarlo Stanton - +6.6% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -5.2 Chase%
Matt Chapman - +4.8% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -5.1 Chase%
Brandon Marsh - +13.8% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -13.1 Chase%
Adley Rutschman - 0.402 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 83.7% Contact%, 23.4% Chase%, 15.5% K%
Bryan Reynolds - 0.506 xwOBA, 25.5% Brl%, 76.2% Contact%, 25.0% Chase%, 9.4% K%
Juan Soto - 0.427 xwOBA, 18.9% Brl%, 76.0% Contact%, 17.6% Chase%, 20.0% K%
Kyle Tucker - 0.441 xwOBA, 15.0% Brl%, 81.5% Contact%, 23.9% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Matt Chapman - 0.549 xwOBA, 34.3% Brl%, 77.4% Contact%, 20.6% Chase%, 19.6% K%
Mookie Betts - 0.398 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 81.6% Contact%, 11.7% Chase%, 18.6% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.455 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 78.4% Contact%, 21.1% Chase%, 15.5% K%
Pete Alonso - 0.513 xwOBA, 21.1% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 17.9% K%
Yandy Diaz - 0.48 xwOBA, 18.4% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 18.4% Chase%, 10.0% K%
Gunnar Henderson - 37.1% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.903 Cold Rating
Jason Vosler - 37.0% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.884 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Tovar - 31.0% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Trevor Larnach - 41.1% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.874 Cold Rating
Jose Abreu - 35.1% Whiff%, 69.4% Weak%, 0.861 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 29.7% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.857 Cold Rating
Enrique Hernandez - 29.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.842 Cold Rating
Chris Taylor - 40.0% Whiff%, 65.0% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating
Brandon Drury - 34.9% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating
Jazz Chisholm - 39.7% Whiff%, 65.2% Weak%, 0.838 Cold Rating
Tyler Freeman (CLE): 4/4, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 2SB, 41FPts
Zach Neto (LAA): 3/4, 3R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 41FPts
Andy Pages (LAD): 3/4, 3R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 41FPts
Ronny Mauricio (NYM): 4/5, 4R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 40FPts
Cody Thomas (OAK): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 7RBI, 0SB, 38FPts
Aaron Bracho (CLE): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 34FPts
Ryan Ward (LAD): 2/3, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 3/5, 3R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 31FPts
Andres Chaparro (NYY): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Kyren Paris (LAA): 2/3, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 30FPts
Mason Miller (OAK): 5IP, 0H, 0ER, 11K, 0BB, 37FPts
Davis Martin (CWS): 6IP, 3H, 0ER, 11K, 3BB, 31FPts
Christian Mejias (MIL): 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 8K, 1BB, 30FPts
Clayton Beeter (NYY): 6IP, 3H, 0ER, 7K, 2BB, 30FPts
Shane Drohan (BOS): 6IP, 3H, 0ER, 6K, 0BB, 27FPts
Coleman Crow (LAA): 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 7K, 3BB, 26FPts
Travis Adams (MIN): 5IP, 2H, 2ER, 7K, 0BB, 24FPts
Jared Shuster (ATL): 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 8K, 3BB, 23FPts
Cody Bradford (TEX): 5IP, 2H, 1ER, 6K, 3BB, 22FPts
Noah Denoyer (BAL): 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 0BB, 22FPts
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