MLB Daily Notes - April 15th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
My three year old son last night asked me why he needs to go to bed, so I told him he needs to sleep so he can be healthy and get bigger. He accepted the answer without any further pushback. But this morning he gets up and comes downstairs and he’s like “Dad, I’m not bigger now”. As if to say “what the hell dude you told me I’d be five feet tall today”. I’m just like sorry bro it happens really slow! I didn’t lie, but I suppose I did mis-lead him to bedtime last night.
From now on, it’s just going to be “you have to go to sleep because it’s good for you and I told you to”.
Some bad outings from aces yesterday
Snell: 4 IP, 7 ER, 43.6% Strike%
Luzardo: 5 IP, 5 ER, 44.7% Strike%
Burnes: 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 42.9% Strike%
Eovaldi: 6 IP, 5 ER, 39.1% Strike%
The first three are on my home league team which I was bragging about yesterday. I ended up taking a 5-5-2 tie with Producer Lee, which is exactly what I wanted. I don’t want to win the league by June, you know? Let’s keep it close, create some parity, give Lee some hope early on.
If you have Blake Snell, I will now tell you what I always tell people who have Blake Snell.
I’m sorry about that
Start him every time
Don’t watch the starts
He had a really slow start last year as well before winning the Cy Young. On June 1st, 2023, he sat with this line
11 GS, 56 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 24.6% K%, 13.7% BB%
At that point, he was getting dropped in some leagues. And then from June 1st on:
21 GS, 124 IP, 1.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 35.0% K%, 13.2% BB%
It would make sense that he’s not on his game this early on with all the weird free agent stuff that happened. He certainly over-performed last year, and massively so in the latter part of the year, but as long as he hasn’t like completely given up after getting the big contract, he’s going to have a more than useful fantasy season and if you start benching him you’re likely to miss out on some excellent starts.
Luis Castillo put together an ace-outing finally with a fantastic 54.5% Strike% and 22.3% SwStr% on a 9:0 K:BB, he’s now at a very strong 27% K% and 4.0% BB%. If we were drafting today, I’m not sure what the SP landscape would look like but probably something like
Burnes
Wheeler
Castillo
Glasnow
Skubal
I don’t know, to get that right I’d have to really spend some time on there, but the point is that Strider/Cole are gone and Gausman is really in question right now, so it would be a very interesting thing to see a re-draft right now.
And if you made Castillo your ace, you’re feeling pretty good. Unless you are me in the MLB DW official fantasy league, when you’re fine with that move but everything else has gone terribly and you’re sitting in 16th place out of 16.
It is all the rage now to blame high velocity for pitcher injuries. A few people have even dropped the “peer reviewed study” bomb on us. I read a whole book one time on how the “peer review” system is insanely flawed and unreliable, but that’s a topic for a different time.
The truth is, it would at least anecdotally right now seem like they’re on to something. Most of these big injury bombs recently have been on pitchers that throw very hard. I am definitely not willing to say that’s the answer, it could very well be a coincidence or just selective memories, but at least at the root of it there is good sense. Throwing a ball 98 has to be at least slightly tougher on your body/arm than throwing it 94. I mean throwing it 94 is pretty freaking violent as well, but I don’t know - it’s not a ridiculous idea by any means. So here is my contribution, here is the top 20 starting pitchers this [regular] season in fastballs thrown above 97 miles per hour:
Hunter Greene 132
Bobby Miller 103
Garrett Crochet 77
MacKenzie Gore 63
Jared Jones 57
Luis Gil 49
Joe Boyle 49
Jordan Hicks 47
Tyler Glasnow 42
Cole Ragans 41
Dylan Ceas 40
Luis Severino 36
Ben Brown 35
Tarik Skubal 32
Graham Ashcraft 30
The grass got cut yesterday, I picked up a bunch of sticks and pinecones and used my sick Grampa’s Weed Puller to get rid of a bunch of BULLcrap weeds and dandelions.
Highly recommend that weed puller to anybody who struggles with panic attacks caused by weeds in your yard. It’s especially nice if you’re like Christian Yelich with a bad back. I don’t have a bad back (shout out to me), and I will continue to not because of that weed-pulling tool.
My grass looks great, and it’s really no testament to my abilities. I don’t do fertilizer or treatment or any of that new-age shit. I just pull the weeds, run the sprinkler system I have, and live on a well which makes everything really healthy.
That’s a microcosm of the way I view my life really. I have all of these blessings, but I don’t feel like I’ve done anything to earn them. I just live on a well. Praise the Lord.
I think it’s time to get into some hitters here. Let’s look at a few things. One of the things we’re most interested in is hitters improving their strikeout rate. Striking out less is one of the easiest ways to become a better hitter. You can’t do anything good without first putting a ball in play, besides walk, but who wants to walk. Here are your biggest K% improvers early on, when comparing 2021-2023 with 2024:
We care most about the hitters with a lot of pop here. Those guys:
Montero
Morel
Suwinski
Mountcastle
Burger
Alvarez
Soler
Baty
Tatis Jr.
Adames
Trout
Jack Suwinski
The man hit a grand slam off Zack Wheeler yesterday, so he’s of interest. He was a popular breakout pick because of his unique ability to
Hit hard fly balls
Not chase bad pitches
Given those two things, it seemed pretty likely that Suwinski could figure out how to cut down his strikeout rate. He wasn’t up there swinging at many bad pitches, and when he was putting balls in play it was fantastic. So if we could get Suwinski at a 25-27% K% you would figure he’s going to have an awesome season. That hasn’t materialized so far with a .196/.263/.333 slash line and a much lower 7.1% Brl%. But he’s still hitting the ball in the air, and the contact rate is at a crazy-high 83.6%.
There has been a trade-off so far with that low Brl% and a lower .283 xwOBA. I expect him to settle somewhere in the middle. Maybe a 26-27% K% and a 12-14% Brl%? That’ll play though. I’m excited to see what he can do moving forward (he’s still not starting against lefties, but that could change with an injury in that Pirates outfield or if he just hits himself into it).
Christopher Morel
The other big name to see here is Christopher Morel. He has never had a problem hitting the long ball, but prior to this year it came with a very bad strikeout rate. He’s added 12 points to the contact rate and shaved off 13 points from the strikeout rate, and he’s kept the barrel rate high at 12.5%. He’s still crushing the ball as well with an average EV above 92 miles per hour. AND he just gained 3B eligibility. With his current slash line of just .237/.274/.441, he’s one of the best buy-lows in the league right now. He could go bonkers this year if this lower K% stuff is real (it’s too early to say it’s definitely for real, but there’s definitely some signal here).
Brett Baty
Nice start to the year for Baty who is making a lot of contact, but the quality of contact hasn’t been great yet (6.9% Brl%, 84.6 average EV). The one thing he has going for him is that he’s also raised his launch angle from 7 degrees to 14, so if he starts finding the middle of the barrel a little bit more he could go bonkers. This guy has a ton of raw power, so I’d go get him everywhere he’s available, but if the K% and GB% go in the wrong direction, you can be quick to cut ties.
Anthony Volpe
Volpe had a super quiet 20-20 season last year, and I liked him for that reason. He had a strikeout problem last year (28%) and he whiffed a lot (72% Contact%), but both of those things are vastly improved this year at a 14% K% and an 89% Contact%. Maybe he’s not trying to hit homers as much as last year, so there could be a trade-off here, but so far it’s resulted in him getting into the lead-off role in the lineup and he’s stolen five bags and scored 14 runs because of it. Awesome fantasy player right now, must-own of course.
Jake Burger
He hurt his oblique or something yesterday, so he might be on the shelf now, but I just want to say that in his Marlins career now (280 PA) he has a 20.6% K% and a 13.1% Brl%. One of the best power hitters in the league.
All of the other names on the screenshot above are interesting, but I can’t spend time on them all right now.
I ran a query to see two things. Hitters in 2024:
Improving in K% (by at least three percentage points)
Improving in average EV (by at least 2mph)
The results:
Christopher Morel.. (-13.8% K%, +4.7 EV)
Brayan Rocchio…….. (-13.0 K%, +2.4 EV)
Michael Busch………. (-8.3 K%, +4.1 EV)
Josh Smith……….….. (-7.5% K%, +2.5 EV)
Alex Kirilloff………… (-6.5% K%, +2.2 EV)
Marcell Ozuna……… (-5.8% K%, +3.3 EV)
William Contreras.. (-5.6% K%, +3.8 EV)
Jarren Duran……….. (-3.9% K%, +2.7 EV)
Justin Turner………. (-3.4% K%, +2.8 EV)
Yoan Moncada (IL).. (-3.4% K%, +2.3 EV)
Tyler O’Neill…………. (-3.2% K%, +2.3 EV)
Adolis Garcia………… (-3.2 K%, +2.2 EV)
Lane Thomas……….. (-3.1% K%, +3.6 EV)
Biggest Barrel Gainers:
Bobby Witt Jr. +13.8%
Michael Busch +12.9%
Maikel Garcia +12.3%
Jake Cronenworth +11.0%
Tyler O’Neill +9.5%
Edouard Julien +9.1%
Jose Siri +8.9%
Elly De La Cruz +8.6%
Christian Yelich +7.4%
Amed Rosario +6.4%
Biggest Launch Angle Gainers:
Joey Gallo +17.4
Michael Busch +17.0
Tyler O’Neill +14.6
Lane Thomas +13.4
Ezequiel Tovar +13.3
Jared Walsh +13.0
Daulton Varsho +11.9
Enmanuel Valdez +11.2
Kris Bryant +11.1
Henry Davis +10.1
Biggest Average EV Gainers:
Bobby Witt Jr. +7.9
Ty France +7.2
Lawrence Butler +6.9
Jose Siri +6.2
Brandon Marsh +6.1
Harrison Bader +5.4
William Contreras +4.9
Jurickson Profar +4.8
Jose Altuve +4.6
C.J. Abrams +4.6
And that will do it, I have like a hard 9:30am cut-off on these daily notes, but I could write all day, I think.
We have an 11am game today with the Boston Marathon going on, so I guess I’ve gotta get that slate preview out pretty soon here too!
Thanks for being here, everybody, again I’ll say this Substack has been such a blessing to me. I love it so much and it’s helped my growing family tremendously. I hope I’m making it worth your time and money.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo
2. Shawn Armstrong
3. Jose Berrios
4. Nestor Cortes
5. Jose Butto
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Cristian Javier
8. Graham Ashcraft
9. Jesus Luzardo
10. Zack Wheeler
11. Cole Ragans
12. Trevor Williams
13. Blake Snell
14. Charlie Morton
15. Brayan Bello
16. Bailey Ober
17. Javier Assad
18. Nathan Eovaldi
19. Zac Gallen
20. Tyler Anderson
21. Colin Rea
22. Mitch Keller
23. Yu Darvish
24. Alex Wood
25. Logan Allen
26. Corbin Burnes
27. Miles Mikolas
28. James Paxton
29. Kyle Freeland
30. Michael Soroka
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jose Berrios (vs. COL): 31.35 Points
2. Jose Butto (vs. KC): 29.7 Points
3. Zac Gallen (vs. STL): 27.9 Points
4. Graham Ashcraft (vs. CWS): 26.56 Points
5. Cole Ragans (vs. NYM): 25.9 Points
6. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. CHC): 23.3 Points
7. Brayan Bello (vs. LAA): 23.19 Points
8. Javier Assad (vs. SEA): 21.76 Points
9. Cristian Javier (vs. TEX): 21.55 Points
10. Jack Flaherty (vs. MIN): 19.44 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo (SEA): 23 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
2. Jose Berrios (TOR): 17 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
3. Jose Butto (NYM): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 16 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
5. Jack Flaherty (DET): 16 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Cole Ragans (KC): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 15 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
8. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
9. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 14 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
10. Cristian Javier (HOU): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Brayan Bello (BOS): 55.1 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
2. Luis Castillo (SEA): 54.4 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
3. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 54.3 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
4. Trevor Williams (WSH): 52.6 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
5. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 52.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
6. Charlie Morton (ATL): 51.9 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
7. Jack Flaherty (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 50.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
9. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 50.0 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
10. Cole Ragans (KC): 48.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
11. Jose Butto (NYM): 48.4 Strike%, 40.7 Ball%
12. Javier Assad (CHC): 48.3 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
13. Tyler Alexander (TB): 47.7 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
14. Bailey Ober (MIN): 47.6 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
15. Cristian Javier (HOU): 47.2 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cristian Javier: 89 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.24 POUT
2. Mitch Keller: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
3. Charlie Morton: 79 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.65 POUT
4. Bailey Ober: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
5. Jose Berrios: 100 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.76 POUT
6. Tyler Alexander: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
7. Zac Gallen: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
8. Jose Butto: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
9. Javier Assad: 87 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.12 POUT
10. Nathan Eovaldi: 87 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.12 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kyle Freeland's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 3.8mph to 88.3
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 87.6
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 83.9
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (26 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 91.8
Kyle Freeland's FF velo (21 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 91.9
Nestor Cortes's ST velo (12 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 78.5
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (20 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 78.0
Nathan Eovaldi's FC velo (13 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 92.3
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (29 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.1
Graham Ashcraft's SI velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.5
Tyler Alexander's FC velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.4
Tyler Alexander's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 80.8
Zac Gallen's CU velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 80.1
Blake Snell's CH velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 84.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Ober's FC usage (29.8%) up 27.7 points
Blake Snell's CH usage (32.1%) up 13.4 points
Colin Rea's ST usage (28.7%) up 16.8 points
Corbin Burnes's CU usage (32.7%) up 14.5 points
Cristian Javier's CH usage (16.9%) up 10.3 points
James Paxton's FF usage (69.5%) up 11.4 points
Jose Berrios's SV usage (42.0%) up 11.7 points
Logan Allen's FC usage (25.0%) up 14.5 points
Trevor Williams's ST usage (30.8%) up 26.4 points
Tyler Alexander's ST usage (23.3%) up 19.0 points
Zac Gallen's SL usage (13.3%) up 10.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 72 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 79 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Max Meyer - 65 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 70 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 40.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 39.4% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 70 TBF, 37.1% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 65 TBF, 35.4% K%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 35.2% K%
Jared Jones - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
Ryan Pepiot - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 70 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Jared Jones - 72 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 65 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 69 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 68 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Keaton Winn - 66 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 65 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 65 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 69 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Michael Soroka - 89 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Martin Perez - 78 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 75 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Ryan Feltner - 68 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Cole Ragans - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 44.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 27.2 K%, 4.3 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 35.2 K%, 4.5 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 63 TBF, 30.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 65.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 45 TBF, 44.4 K%, 2.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 30.8 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 57 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Zac Gallen - 89 TBF, 29.2 K%, 7.9 BB%, 47.3% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
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