MLB Daily Notes - April 18th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Look at this grass. I can’t really stress enough how little credit I can take for this turf. I mow and pull weeds, and that is it, and look how good it looks.
Crazy, man. What a blessing. I long for the days in the future where my kids are big enough to be good at badminton. Going to put in looong badminton hours out there.
Tonight my five year old daughter and three year old son start outdoor soccer, which should be really fun, and then we have Open House for my daughter who is going into Kindergarten. All of my kids are going to attend the Christian school that is a ministry of my church, and because I live in Indiana, the state pays for most of it (aka I get to use my tax dollars for private school instead of public). This would not have been possible for us in Pennsylvania, so just another blessing.
I grew up in a Christian school, and I think it did me a ton of good. I ended up in public school for high school, and I think that did me a ton of good as well. Although the innocence and ignorance I came into public school with sent me through some shockwaves for sure. I remember my second day of public school in a study hall listening to these two girls talking about how they slept with all these guys that summer and I was like what do you mean like a sleepover? Did you drink too much Mountain Dew or something? What are you talking about?
And then some kid asked me if I had snuff at the end of the day and I had absolutely no idea what he was talking about, I’m like no dude I haven’t watched Sesame Street in years.
And for awhile I didn’t think I wanted my kids to be sheltered and ignorant and innocent like that, but that’s the way you think before you have kids. lol.
We should certainly talk about Tanner Houck, who I have been wrong about for my whole life.
Tanner Houck
So the Angels got to him for 12 hits, but otherwise he’s been sparkling all year. He has a 1.35 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP on a 26.7% K% and a 1.9% BB%. That’s a 2.95 SIERA.
The most important question we have to ask moving forward is has anything changed? Because he wasn’t good last year (5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 21.4% K%, 8.9% BB%, 4.33 SIERA).
Stat: 2023 → 2024
SwStr%: 13.6% → 13.1%
Strike%..: 45% → 49%
Ball%…….: 37% → 31%
GB%……..: 53% → 52%
Stuff+……..: 101 → 121
Loc+………: 100 → 103
Pitching+...: 101 → 107Pitch Usage: 2023 → 2024
Slider: 38% → 43%
Sinker: 29% → 32%
Splitter: 11% → 18%
Cutter: 11% → 6%
4-Seam: 10% → 0.3%
So he has scrapped the four-seamer and reduced the cutter as well in favor of his three primary pitches. The Stuff+ on the slider has gone through the roof (114 → 145), but the sinker Stuff+ has actually gotten worse. Here’s the arsenal numbers this year:
So I don’t know if a 55% Strike% on a slider is possible. The top slider Strike% last year among starters was Spencer Strider at 55%, and nobody else was above 53%. The average was 49% among pitchers who threw a lot of sliders (which would mean those are the league’s better sliders). So there’s some regression coming there, but it’s a very good pitch.
The sinker also hasn’t been a great strike-earner with a 48% Strike%, the league average on a sinker is 47%, so he’s just barely above the league average there.
It’s good to see the Stuff+ way up, and for that reason I think the improvement is real, but I can’t see a 26% K-BB% from Houck moving forward. My guess would be the he ticks down to a 25% K% and a 6-7% BB%. That’s still a very good pitcher, and he’s must-start for now, but I think there’s some over-performance here.
Esteury Ruiz
2023: 496 PA, 9 Barrels, 5 HR
2024: 15 PA, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Two of his ten hardest-hit balls of the last two seasons have come this week.
This guy was one of the lightest-hitting players in the league last season:
But it seems like he’s swinging the bat a bit harder this year. Maybe he’s just mad about getting demoted or something. He’s not whiffing much (13% K%, 81.5% Contact%), but we’re talking about 15 plate appearances here, so this could all be completely meaningless and random.
Esteury is a must-add player if available, and that’s not because I think he’ll actually be a home run hitter, it’s just that the steals are must-have in roto leagues. In points leagues, he’s much less interesting.
Ryan Feltner
A Rockies pitcher leading the day in whiffs is not something you often see, but Feltner did it yesterday with 23. He’s gone over 15 whiffs since 2023, and both of those are this season:
Last year: 46% Strike%, 37% Ball%, 9.5% SwStr%, 81 Stuff+
This year: 51% Strike%, 33% Ball%, 16.7% SwStr%, 79 Stuff+
Seems pretty random, and he’s a Rockies pitcher so we are a long ways from starting him. He also gave up nine hits and six earnies last night, so it’s not like it was a good start. But he’s fooling hitters this year for sure, so in a crazy deep league he’s a consideration.
Jake Irvin
He deserves a shoutout with six scoreless innings against the Dodgers on a 6:1 K:BB. It wasn’t lucky either with a 15.1% SwStr% and 53.4% Strike%.
But the breakout isn’t happening, for the year he’s at a very bad 10.3% SwStr% and 44% Strike%.
Starting pitchers have a 5.47 ERA against the Dodgers this year. Irvin was the first starter this season to go more than four innings against them without giving up an earned run.
Michael King
I really did not know what to expect from King this year coming into the season, and I still have no idea. He’s been good and he’s been bad this year. But he was very good yesterday:
The 15.6% SwStr% was his best mark of the year, but he still wasn’t throwing a ton of strikes with that 37.6% Ball%. If you have really nasty stuff, you can deal with a bit higher of a Ball%, but that hasn’t really been the case for King as a starter this year with a 107 Stuff+. The Location+ is good at 104 though, so I don’t know. His Stuff+ was 135 as a starter with the Yankees last year, so it seems like he’s eased off a bit with his eyes set on throwing 140+ innings. I think we’ll get some good and some bad with King, that’s about as specific as I can get with a prediction for him moving forward.
Brl% vs. Contact%
Mike Trout is still elite, 82% Contact% and 18% Brl% this year, crazy good. Some other of those best-placed dots:
Jake Cronenworth
Yordan Alvarez
Kyle Tucker
Taylor Ward
Juan Soto
Shohei Ohtani
Gunnar Henderson
Pete Alonso
Maikel Garcia
You can check out that specific interactive plot by clicking here.
Jesse Winker
Don’t look now, but Winkdaddy is kind of up to something this year
.364/.485/.582, 2 HR, 11.6% Brl%, 17.6% K%, 79% Cont%, .403 xwOBA
I’m not sure if I’m saying pick him up in a normalish league, but deep leagues - give him a look.
Some other super-low-owned hitters with high xwOBA’s
Michael Busch .455
Lawrence Butler .412
Jordan Westburg .397
Ty France .394
Bryan De La Cruz .374
Michael Conforto .366
Ty France and his teammates are heading to Coors for the weekend, and France really does look like a different hitter this year.
2023 → 2024
Brl%: 6.8% → 10%
Hard%: 38% → 58%
xwOBA: .324 → .394
GB%: 42% → 40%
He hasn’t homered yet, but that is bound to change soon. The strikeouts are up (18% → 25%), but the Contact% is only down slightly (78% → 76%). Most power increases come with lesser contact rates since the bat is being swung harder, so it’s not a surprise (or even really that bad of a thing) for France to strike out more this year if we’re getting more homers out of him. But I guess if he doesn’t homer pretty soon he might go back to his old ways. I don’t know, I think he’s worth an add for this weekend and possibly a hold in deeper leagues if these numbers hold up.
And that’s it for me. Really light day of baseball today, so I might try to use it to not think about baseball too much.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Tanner Houck
2. Ryan Feltner
3. Cristopher Sanchez
4. Tarik Skubal
5. Albert Suarez
6. Jake Irvin
7. Michael King
8. Zack Littell
9. Trevor Rogers
10. Pablo Lopez
11. Kevin Gausman
12. Jordan Wicks
13. Reid Detmers
14. Erick Fedde
15. Marcus Stroman
16. Luis Severino
17. J.P. France
18. Ben Lively
19. Michael Wacha
20. Bryse Wilson
21. Steven Matz
22. Dane Dunning
23. Brandon Pfaadt
24. Keaton Winn
25. Jonathan Cannon
26. Brady Singer
27. Landon Knack
28. Paul Blackburn
29. Bryce Miller
30. Andrew Abbott
31. Bailey Falter
32. Max Fried
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tanner Houck (vs. CLE): 40.45 Points
2. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. COL): 33.9 Points
3. Michael King (vs. MIL): 32.86 Points
4. Bryce Miller (vs. CIN): 28.3 Points
5. Jake Irvin (vs. LAD): 26.5 Points
6. Pablo Lopez (vs. BAL): 24.3 Points
7. Erick Fedde (vs. KC): 23.16 Points
8. Luis Severino (vs. PIT): 20.7 Points
9. Keaton Winn (vs. MIA): 20.5 Points
10. Trevor Rogers (vs. SF): 20.36 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ryan Feltner (COL): 23 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
2. Tanner Houck (BOS): 19 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
3. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 18 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
4. Michael King (SD): 17 Whiffs (109 Pitches)
5. Zack Littell (TB): 16 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
6. Albert Suarez (BAL): 14 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
8. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 14 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Tarik Skubal (DET): 14 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. J.P. France (HOU): 13 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 58.8 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
2. Tarik Skubal (DET): 57.0 Strike%, 20.9 Ball%
3. Zack Littell (TB): 54.2 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
4. Jake Irvin (WSH): 53.4 Strike%, 26.0 Ball%
5. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 52.6 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
6. Tanner Houck (BOS): 52.1 Strike%, 26.6 Ball%
7. Ryan Feltner (COL): 52.1 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
8. Bryce Miller (SEA): 51.6 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
9. Jordan Wicks (CHC): 51.4 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
10. Michael King (SD): 49.5 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
11. Ben Lively (CLE): 49.4 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
12. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 49.4 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
13. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 48.5 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
14. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 48.3 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
15. Reid Detmers (LAA): 47.8 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tanner Houck: 94 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.48 POUT
2. Jake Irvin: 73 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.06 POUT
3. Albert Suarez: 75 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.41 POUT
4. Brandon Pfaadt: 94 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.48 POUT
5. Keaton Winn: 81 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.5 POUT
6. Tarik Skubal: 86 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.53 POUT
7. Michael King: 109 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.74 POUT
8. Pablo Lopez: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
9. Bailey Falter: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
10. Landon Knack: 75 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luis Severino's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 88.2
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (30 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 85.2
Cristopher Sanchez's SI velo (47 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 94.4
Luis Severino's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 93.0
Tarik Skubal's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.9
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.6
Michael Wacha's FC velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 85.0
J.P. France's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 90.9
J.P. France's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 72.9
Reid Detmers's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -3.4mph to 85.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Ben Lively's ST usage (19.0%) up 17.9 points
Brandon Pfaadt's SI usage (22.3%) up 10.3 points
Bryce Miller's SI usage (20.9%) up 11.0 points
Bryce Miller's FS usage (18.7%) up 15.7 points
Jake Irvin's FF usage (58.9%) up 21.0 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (15.6%) up 11.8 points
Marcus Stroman's SL usage (23.2%) up 16.8 points
Pablo Lopez's FF usage (46.0%) up 10.7 points
Reid Detmers's CH usage (18.9%) up 12.2 points
Tanner Houck's FS usage (34.0%) up 20.2 points
Tarik Skubal's SI usage (31.4%) up 17.2 points
Zack Littell's FS usage (38.3%) up 18.1 points
Zack Littell's SI usage (35.5%) up 23.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 88 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 79 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Max Meyer - 65 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
MacKenzie Gore - 65 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Michael King - 97 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 39.4% K%
Jared Jones - 88 TBF, 36.4% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 65 TBF, 35.4% K%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 35.2% K%
Reid Detmers - 86 TBF, 34.9% K%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
Hunter Greene - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Ryan Pepiot - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Jared Jones - 88 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 65 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 95 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Ranger Suarez - 95 TBF, 63.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 92 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 91 TBF, 61.3% GB%
Max Fried - 80 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Luis Severino - 92 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Brady Singer - 89 TBF, 58.6% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 86 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Adrian Houser - 68 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Keaton Winn - 87 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Michael Soroka - 89 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Cole Ragans - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 44.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 27.2 K%, 4.3 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 35.2 K%, 4.5 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 63.5% GB%
Shane Bieber - 45 TBF, 44.4 K%, 2.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 57 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Zac Gallen - 89 TBF, 29.2 K%, 7.9 BB%, 47.3% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tanner Houck - +3.8% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Logan Allen - +3.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Jake Irvin - +2.6% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +7.5% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Graham Ashcraft - +5.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Dakota Hudson - +2.3% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Cole Ragans - +2.6% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Joe Ryan - +4.7% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +4.7% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Jose Urena - +5.1% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +2.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Esteury Ruiz (OAK) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gavin Sheets (CWS) 8 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Rojas (SEA) 2 PA, 2 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Juan Soto (NYY) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Starling Marte (NYM) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Esteury Ruiz, Yesterday: 109.8 Previous High: 109.5
Parker Meadows, Yesterday: 108.7 Previous High: 108.5
Hardest Hit Balls
Mike Trout (LAA) - 114.4mph - field_out
Triston Casas (BOS) - 113.9mph - nan
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.9mph - nan
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.3mph - grounded_into_double_play
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 112.0mph - home_run
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 111.8mph - home_run
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 111.7mph - grounded_into_double_play
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 111.7mph - nan
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.5mph - field_out
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.8mph - home_run
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