MLB Daily Notes - April 1st

A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.

Apr 01, 2024

∙ Paid

I feel like the season is starting today for me. I am finally back in the office alone and able to really dig in, so I’m calling this my Opening Day. Happy Opening Day to everybody. I developed a massive head cold yesterday, so it’s not all good, but you can’t have it all in life.

There was some tension in my head over these last four days where I was not working and doing family stuff. My head kept going to all the stuff I needed to do here, things to add, things to fix, and all of that. It’s hard to separate things, especially when we’re all so used to multi-tasking all of the time.

This website could certainly be bigger and grow faster if I didn’t have a wife and three kids, but that would be a really dumb trade to make.

We’re going to talk a lot about some pitching performances over these first four days. There’s a lot more to talk about in short samples on the pitching side. You can learn some stuff from a single SP outing, but 3-4 days of hitting will tell you basically nothing. After three weeks or so we’ll get more into the hitters and start identifying those breakouts and whatnot.

I think I’ll try to do a dedicated weekly post for buys/sells on both hitters and pitchers. So keep an eye out for that.

If you play DraftKings DFS, join our league here. I will run daily $5 contests in there.

Before long, these notes will be mostly behind the paywall. Become a paid sub today to get access to everything here, it’s just $9/month and you get absolutely everything. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.

The first thing I have to talk about is that Joe Boyle is pitching today. I get such a kick out of this guy. Last year, he posted a 31.4% K% and a 16.8% BB% in 28 starts. The first time I saw that walk rate on him, I assumed my database was all jacked up or something. It’s so rare to see someone walking that many guys and still remaining a professional thrower of baseballs. His walk outputs last year when facing at least 10 batters:

0 walks: 4 times
1 walk: 6 times
2 walks: 8 times
3 walks: 11 times
4 walks: 4 times
5 walks: 4 times
6 walks: 0 times
7 walks: 2 times
8 walks: 0 times
9 walks: 1 times

The walk prop on him on DraftKings is 2.5. I think 2.5 is as high as they’ll go, but the line on this one is +155. That’s a mistake. He went over 2.5 walks 55% of the time last year. I project him for a 16% BB%, and that might be a little high, but it puts him on top of the player prop values sheet up at a 23% value.

Paid subs have access to that sheet that has all of the bet values powered by my projections for a number of different bet types. There were more in there last year, but I got rid of the ones that I know for sure don’t give profitable advice.

There were some really impressive pitching performances over these last two days from pitchers that are available in a lot of leagues.

This plot will show you quite a bit of what happened. It’s Ball% vs. Strike% for the guys that have made a start so far.

If you click the link I just gave you can hover over the dots to see who everybody is, but the standouts are clear. Here are the starter that went above 55%:

Lots of those young guys we’ve been talking about all off-season! Jones, Brown, Rodriguez, Greene, Miller, Ryan, and Pfaadt all looked good in this respect. I was a bit surprised to see Greene there since he did walk four batters in his start. The seven strikeouts were nice, and it’s good to know that his Ball% was really good at 29%. Keep starting him.

Ryan Weathers was also quite good, and he could be available in some leagues.

At the bottom of the list, your Strike% below 39%:

Not a good start to the year for these guys. There aren’t many pitchers that are universally rostered here, so there aren’t many action points.

As for A.J. Puk, I would probably wait at least one more start to drop him if you took a chance. That first start couldn’t have gone much worse for him, but we can’t condemn dudes over one start. I’d bench him this week if possible, but another start or two without him showing good command and he’s a clear drop.

It’s bad news to see DL Hall here as well. We already knew that command is an issue for him, and that was true again in his first outing. I’d still hold him for one or two more to see what happens, I think the strikeouts should be there soon.

Brady Singer was the best pitcher on the board yesterday, with 37-burger on DraftKings. He had 19 whiffs. That was two more than his max from last year, and he had only gone above 15 once all year last year.

Here’s the pitch mix:

That 54% slider usage was up from 42% lsat year, he kind of reversed the sinker and slider in terms of usage. That worked beautifully. I wouldn’t rush out to add him because we have such a long sample of him being mediocre to bad, but if he really is going to throw this slider 50% of the time, that’s a significant change and it could work out for him. I’m not sure how long you can throw that many sliders, so there are a lot of question marks - but hey it was a good start to the year for the guy.

The guy he tied in whiffs yesterday was Jordan Wicks. The box score line on Wicks wasn’t very good:

4 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Here’s the mix:

A 45% Strike and 40% Ball are both really bad, but he was getting whiffs. I’m not adding Wicks, I think this was pretty much a lucky start for him.

Tyler Wells for 16 whiffs on his own with a beautiful 54.9% Strike% and a crazy good 7:0 K:BB. The matchup was nice with the Angels, but a very good start to the year for Wells, who is available in a lot of leagues. It seems like the Orioles are going to win a bunch of games, and Wells is a guy that can get deep into games, so he’s a nice add in wins/QS leagues.

We got our first official look at the Tigers version of Jack Flaherty:

The 34% Ball% is awesome for him, that’s two points below the league average from a guy that has long struggled with command. He had a great spring, and that first start was very encouraging as well. He went six strong innings with a 8:0 K:BB.

Since we have such a long history of him being BLAH, I would call him a sell-high. Maybe you can’t do that quite yet, but if he goes out and has another good start next time, I’d consider shopping him around to see if you can get someone to bite.

It’s going to be another year of me talking about Garrett Whitlock a lot. He made his first start of the year yesterday and looked really good against Seattle.

The book on Whitlock is that he throws a lot of strikes and gets a good number of whiffs, but he’s been inconsistent with health and often more of just a 4-5 innings guy.

He threw just 81 pitches yesterday, and the whiffs weren’t there at an 8.6% SwStr%. But he was in the strike zone and nobody was able to get the ball elevated off of him. Eight strikeouts and 0 walks, you love that. I’d add him for sure, but I am really hoping we can see him throwing 90+ pitches soon.

Pitch counts were low, as we expected. The guys that have already gone above 95 pitches:

Stroman (101)
Greene (100)
Kirby (99)
Singer (98)
Trevor Rogers (97)
Webb (97)
Ragans (97)
Canning (96)
Fedde (96)
Bassitt (95)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto had his second start and was better, but it still wasn’t ace production. He threw just 68 pitches, I think that might have been because of a rain delay though? He threw five scoreless with five strikeouts and no walks, so that’s good. The SwStr% was solid at 13.2% and the Ball% got right at 33.8%. Start him with confidence.

Brandon Pfaadt also gets a major thumbs-upski. The SwStr% was low at 9.2%, but the Strike% and Ball% were fantastic and he got a ton of ground balls.

It’s a good three-pitch mix, and remember that sinker is relatively new, he came up with it later on last year. He’s a guy you want to start in most matchups, I think (probably bench him against the Dodgers and Braves, but every other matchup right now I’d fire away).

I can’t cover everything that happened, so let’s move on to the automated part. I think this will be the final fully free daily notes, tomorrow I’m going to start putting up paywalls, and I’ll be developing new stuff when I find some time.

Pitchers

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Brady Singer (vs. MIN): 37.35 Points

2. Garrett Whitlock (vs. SEA): 27.45 Points

3. Reid Detmers (vs. BAL): 24.25 Points

4. Jack Flaherty (vs. CWS): 23.1 Points

5. Brandon Pfaadt (vs. COL): 22.25 Points

6. Paul Blackburn (vs. CLE): 19.35 Points

7. Kevin Gausman (vs. TB): 18.54 Points

8. Tyler Wells (vs. LAA): 18.5 Points

9. Chris Sale (vs. PHI): 17.79 Points

10. Erick Fedde (vs. DET): 16.91 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Jordan Wicks (CHC): 19 Whiffs (85 Pitches)

2. Brady Singer (KC): 19 Whiffs (98 Pitches)

3. Reid Detmers (LAA): 17 Whiffs (88 Pitches)

4. Gavin Stone (LAD): 16 Whiffs (85 Pitches)

5. Bryce Miller (SEA): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)

6. Tyler Wells (BAL): 16 Whiffs (82 Pitches)

7. Jack Flaherty (DET): 13 Whiffs (87 Pitches)

8. J.P. France (HOU): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)

9. Ryan Feltner (COL): 13 Whiffs (86 Pitches)

10. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 56.5 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%

2. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 55.2 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%

3. Tyler Wells (BAL): 54.9 Strike%, 25.6 Ball%

4. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 54.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%

5. Chris Sale (ATL): 53.0 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%

6. Ryan Feltner (COL): 52.3 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%

7. Brady Singer (KC): 51.0 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%

8. Garrett Whitlock (BOS): 50.6 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%

9. Jack Flaherty (DET): 48.3 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%

10. Erick Fedde (CWS): 47.9 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%

11. Nick Martinez (CIN): 47.8 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%

12. Reid Detmers (LAA): 47.7 Strike%, 40.9 Ball%

13. Tyler Alexander (TB): 47.6 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%

14. Gavin Stone (LAD): 45.9 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%

15. Colin Rea (MIL): 45.2 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Tylor Megill's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 87.6

Jack Flaherty's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 78.5

Paul Blackburn's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 83.1

Tyler Wells's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 76.3

Ryan Feltner's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.9

Clarke Schmidt's SI velo (23 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 95.4

Gavin Stone's CH velo (35 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 87.7

Garrett Whitlock's CH velo (25 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 84.5

Clarke Schmidt's FC velo (22 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 93.0

Chris Sale's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 79.4

Michael King's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.7

J.P. France's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 74.3

Tyler Alexander's FC velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.7

Ranger Suarez's SI velo (43 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.0

Michael King's ST velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 79.9

Carlos Carrasco's FF velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.8

Michael King's FF velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 92.7

Michael King's SI velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 91.9

Reid Detmers's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 85.9

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Bailey Falter's SL usage (34.5%) up 14.1 points

Bailey Ober's FF usage (61.9%) up 16.2 points

Brady Singer's SL usage (54.1%) up 11.9 points

Brandon Pfaadt's SI usage (20.7%) up 10.5 points

Bryce Miller's SL usage (31.0%) up 10.7 points

Chris Sale's FF usage (57.8%) up 14.7 points

Garrett Whitlock's CH usage (41.0%) up 16.7 points

J.P. France's FC usage (32.3%) up 11.7 points

Jack Flaherty's SL usage (46.0%) up 20.1 points

Jake Irvin's CU usage (42.5%) up 10.5 points

Jordan Wicks's FF usage (40.0%) up 11.5 points

Nick Martinez's FC usage (31.5%) up 15.0 points

Nick Martinez's FF usage (25.8%) up 12.9 points

Paul Blackburn's FF usage (25.0%) up 10.5 points

Ranger Suarez's SI usage (51.8%) up 23.6 points

Reid Detmers's FF usage (60.2%) up 16.6 points

Tylor Megill's FF usage (66.7%) up 11.0 points

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 35 TBF, 43.8% CSW%

Grayson Rodriguez - 40 TBF, 37.4% CSW%

Seth Lugo - 41 TBF, 35.4% CSW%

Joe Ryan - 35 TBF, 33.6% CSW%

Hunter Greene - 35 TBF, 32.4% CSW%

Lance Lynn - 29 TBF, 32.3% CSW%

Ryan Weathers - 35 TBF, 32.0% CSW%

Dylan Cease - 32 TBF, 31.2% CSW%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 40 TBF, 31.2% CSW%

Michael King - 38 TBF, 30.7% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 35 TBF, 45.7% K%

Grayson Rodriguez - 40 TBF, 40.0% K%

Dylan Cease - 32 TBF, 37.5% K%

Cody Bradford - 34 TBF, 32.4% K%

Zack Littell - 35 TBF, 31.4% K%

Hunter Greene - 35 TBF, 31.4% K%

Lance Lynn - 29 TBF, 31.0% K%

Kutter Crawford - 43 TBF, 30.2% K%

Logan Gilbert - 47 TBF, 29.8% K%

Michael King - 38 TBF, 28.9% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jared Jones - 35 TBF, 40.0% K-BB%

Grayson Rodriguez - 40 TBF, 37.5% K-BB%

Dylan Cease - 32 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%

Cody Bradford - 34 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%

Logan Gilbert - 47 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%

Lance Lynn - 29 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%

Jordan Hicks - 35 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%

Joe Ryan - 35 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%

Kutter Crawford - 43 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%

Luis Severino - 35 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Tommy Henry - 35 TBF, 65.2% GB%

Ryan Weathers - 35 TBF, 65.2% GB%

Tanner Bibee - 42 TBF, 62.5% GB%

Yusei Kikuchi - 32 TBF, 57.9% GB%

Kutter Crawford - 43 TBF, 57.1% GB%

Kyle Hendricks - 35 TBF, 56.7% GB%

Aaron Nola - 41 TBF, 55.6% GB%

Marcus Stroman - 47 TBF, 55.6% GB%

Hunter Brown - 32 TBF, 54.5% GB%

Seth Lugo - 41 TBF, 53.3% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Bobby Miller - 21 TBF, 52.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 55.6% GB%

Brady Singer - 26 TBF, 34.6 K%, 3.8 BB%, 78.6% GB%

Brandon Pfaadt - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 0.0 BB%, 61.5% GB%

Cody Bradford - 34 TBF, 32.4 K%, 2.9 BB%, 45.5% GB%

Garrett Crochet - 23 TBF, 34.8 K%, 0.0 BB%, 46.7% GB%

Garrett Whitlock - 19 TBF, 42.1 K%, 0.0 BB%, 60.0% GB%

Jack Flaherty - 23 TBF, 30.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 60.0% GB%

Jared Jones - 35 TBF, 45.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 47.1% GB%

Jordan Hicks - 35 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 52.2% GB%

Kutter Crawford - 43 TBF, 30.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 57.1% GB%

Pablo Lopez - 24 TBF, 29.2 K%, 0.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%

Shane Bieber - 22 TBF, 50.0 K%, 4.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%

Tyler Wells - 23 TBF, 30.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 43.8% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Logan Gilbert - +2.7% CSW%, -3.2 BB%

Hitters

Multiple Barrels

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Jake Cronenworth (SD) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Justin Turner (TOR) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Yesterday: 113.3 Previous High: 113.2

Hardest Hit Balls

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 115.8mph - double

Aaron Judge (NYY) - 114.6mph - field_out

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 114.4mph - home_run

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) - 113.3mph - home_run

William Contreras (MIL) - 113.0mph - double

Juan Soto (NYY) - 112.8mph - single

Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 112.8mph - single

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.4mph - single

Jo Adell (LAA) - 111.9mph - field_out

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.9mph - field_out

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Yordan Alvarez - 22 PA, 0.144 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.225 Diff

Triston Casas - 21 PA, 0.141 wOBA, 0.243 xwOBA, 0.102 Diff

Bryan De La Cruz - 21 PA, 0.211 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff

Alex Verdugo - 21 PA, 0.168 wOBA, 0.249 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff

Marcus Semien - 18 PA, 0.344 wOBA, 0.423 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff

Shohei Ohtani - 29 PA, 0.266 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff

Luis Arraez - 23 PA, 0.154 wOBA, 0.227 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff

Kyle Tucker - 23 PA, 0.269 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff

Harold Ramirez - 19 PA, 0.093 wOBA, 0.161 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff

Jazz Chisholm - 19 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff

Bottom 10

Michael Harris II - 18 PA, 0.656 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, -0.37 Diff

Oswaldo Cabrera - 19 PA, 0.508 wOBA, 0.222 xwOBA, -0.286 Diff

Brenton Doyle - 18 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.22 xwOBA, -0.284 Diff

Matt Olson - 19 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.162 xwOBA, -0.256 Diff

Mookie Betts - 27 PA, 0.733 wOBA, 0.498 xwOBA, -0.235 Diff

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 18 PA, 0.422 wOBA, 0.19 xwOBA, -0.232 Diff

Juan Soto - 25 PA, 0.583 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, -0.23 Diff

Eugenio Suarez - 20 PA, 0.571 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.228 Diff

Teoscar Hernandez - 23 PA, 0.44 wOBA, 0.243 xwOBA, -0.197 Diff

J.D. Davis - 19 PA, 0.517 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, -0.195 Diff

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Bobby Witt Jr. - 17 PA, 10 BIP, 4 Brls, 40.0 Brl%

Michael Conforto - 19 PA, 10 BIP, 4 Brls, 40.0 Brl%

Jazz Chisholm - 19 PA, 8 BIP, 3 Brls, 37.5 Brl%

Christian Walker - 23 PA, 12 BIP, 4 Brls, 33.3 Brl%

Adolis Garcia - 17 PA, 10 BIP, 3 Brls, 30.0 Brl%

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 23 PA, 17 BIP, 4 Brls, 23.5 Brl%

J.D. Davis - 19 PA, 10 BIP, 2 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Mitch Haniger - 19 PA, 10 BIP, 2 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Randy Arozarena - 17 PA, 10 BIP, 2 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 20 PA, 11 BIP, 2 Brls, 18.2 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Bobby Witt Jr. - 17 PA, 0.588 xwOBA

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 20 PA, 0.525 xwOBA

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 23 PA, 0.502 xwOBA

Mookie Betts - 31 PA, 0.486 xwOBA

Michael Conforto - 19 PA, 0.443 xwOBA

Elehuris Montero - 18 PA, 0.436 xwOBA

Marcus Semien - 18 PA, 0.423 xwOBA

Randy Arozarena - 17 PA, 0.423 xwOBA

Justin Turner - 17 PA, 0.406 xwOBA

Ryan Mountcastle - 18 PA, 0.398 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Geraldo Perdomo - 17 PA, 26 Swings, 100.0 Cont%

Gabriel Moreno - 17 PA, 35 Swings, 94.3 Cont%

Alex Verdugo - 21 PA, 39 Swings, 92.3 Cont%

Ha-Seong Kim - 29 PA, 39 Swings, 92.3 Cont%

Mookie Betts - 31 PA, 45 Swings, 91.1 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 26 PA, 40 Swings, 90.0 Cont%

Jake Cronenworth - 31 PA, 49 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Corbin Carroll - 24 PA, 46 Swings, 89.1 Cont%

Juan Soto - 25 PA, 35 Swings, 88.6 Cont%

Ozzie Albies - 17 PA, 35 Swings, 88.6 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Brice Turang - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Jose Siri - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

C.J. Abrams - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (2 steals)

Lane Thomas - 2 Attempts (2 steals)

Randy Arozarena - 2 Attempts (2 steals)

Jake Fraley - 2 Attempts (1 steals)

Jarren Duran - 2 Attempts (2 steals)

Andres Gimenez - 2 Attempts (1 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 2 Attempts (1 steals)

Christian Yelich - 2 Attempts (2 steals)

Trevor Story - 2 Attempts (1 steals)

Tyler Freeman - 2 Attempts (1 steals)

Jose Caballero - 2 Attempts (1 steals)

Bubba Thompson - 2 Attempts (2 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders