I really need to start getting up earlier. I popped outta bed at 6:40 this morning to get my DFS piece for RotoBaller done before 8, but then yeah of course my daughter was up at 6:45 which slowed things down.
So it took me the full time to get that all done and then I had to knock some stuff out for the real job, and now here it is after 9:00 when I start writing these notes.
It’s meeting city starting at 10 so my back is up against the wall. I would really like to have the time to go into more detail in these daily notes every time, so I guess I find myself at an impasse. What do I like more - the hour or sleep or the betterment of the daily notes? Time will tell.
Tanner Houck was the man of the day. For how dreary things are in Red Sox land, they really do have a pretty solid rotation.
The cutter is new this year, which gives him all three variations of the fastball. That’s pretty interesting. It was also notable that he threw 96 pitches, which is his highest pitch count of his Major League career. So he’s functioning as a real starter and now has has three fastballs with that good slider. Seems like a pretty good pitcher to me. And those tattoos!
Matt Strahm took advantage of the road Rockies in their first game out of Coors. We should not make a habit out of reacting very much to good pitching performances when they come in that circumstance, but Strahm has been getting a ton of whiffs this year (15.8% SwStr% now). He also set a two-year high in pitches thrown (82), so it’s possible that there’s something there.
And the Pirates just continue to smash. Jack Suwinski homered YET AGAIN. He now has the THIRD-HIGHEST Brl/PA in the league! That’s barrel per PA - one of the most important stats out there for identifying power hitters. I don’t even know what to do with the Pirates having an actual power hitter, it has almost never happened.
Chapman 23.7%
Soler 16.7%
Suwinski 16.7%
Stanton 16.7%
K Carpenter 16.0%
Reynolds 15.1%
B Lowe 14.8%
Mountcastle 14.6%
Murphy 14.5%
Hays 13.9%
Suwinski is the JA model’s #3 hitter right now!
He has been really brutal against LHP in his young career, which isn’t a huge issue since he could easily improve on that - but for now, it does function to keep him low in the lineup or benched against lefties. He did get the start against Gomber on Thursday, so maybe they’ll get him a little extra run in there against lefties but we’ll see. I think he should probably be picked up in deeper leagues at this point.
Kerry Carpenter is your top hitter streamer recommendation in the elite section of the notes (if you’re a paid member, I have upgraded you to elite free of charge, with that new status you get nothing extra). That guy is my boy and he should be rostered much more than he is - I believe in the power there and his K% is down at 24% this year - a welcome sign.
To keep going on the Pirates, they have three hitters on the hot hitter tracker right now! Since I said that, we can make it free today:
Ian Happ - +11.2% Contact%, +6.4 mph exit velo, -7.8 Chase%
Alec Bohm - +9.1% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -7.4 Chase%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - +11.3% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -14.1 Chase%
Rodolfo Castro - +17.4% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -11.0 Chase%
Jonathan India - +10.7% Contact%, +9.0 mph exit velo, -7.2 Chase%
Andrew Vaughn - +10.7% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -5.4 Chase%
Ryan Mountcastle - +12.0% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -8.6 Chase%
Javier Baez - +10.0% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -14.2 Chase%
Jack Suwinski - +13.7% Contact%, +8.0 mph exit velo, -15.7 Chase%
Wait Javier Baez is hot? What? He is chasing less this year and the K% is down to 19% this year. The GB% is up at 57% and he has not barreled a ball yet this year. So I think I need to investigate this average exit velocity thing, because those numbers seem all kinds of wrong. I will fix that if it needs fixing today.
Point is, the Pirates are amazing and they beat the Reds before my kids were even fully asleep last night. Wild stuff.
James Outman rocked a double-barrel double-dong yesterday. He’s now at a 22.5% Brl% with a 12.3% Brl/PA, but an alarming 30.1% K% and 66% Contact%. He hit lead-off yesterday which was interesting. I can believe he’ll hit some homers, but the strikeouts are a little bit too high to get me hyped up about him, I would still be looking to sell high on him if someone will bite (in redraft leagues).
The rookie hitters are looking really bad as a group this year, and I’m trying really hard to contain myself into taking victory laps about Jordan Walker. And the truth is I shouldn’t do that for a couple of reasons
One more Pirates thing, Connor Joe qualifies as Super Ultra Mega Hot with his .401 xwOBA, 16% Brl%, and 77% Contact% over the last two weeks. There are five other names on that list today, so check that out behind the wall!
That’s it for me, here’s the report:
1. Tanner Houck (BOS): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
2. Matt Strahm (PHI): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
3. Luke Weaver (CIN): 14 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
4. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 14 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
5. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
6. Ryan Feltner (COL): 12 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
7. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 11 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
8. Tristan Beck (SF): 10 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
9. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 9 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
10. Kodai Senga (NYM): 9 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
1. Tristan Beck (SF): 12.3 SwStr%, 39.5 CSW%
2. Matt Strahm (PHI): 17.1 SwStr%, 37.8 CSW%
3. Ryan Feltner (COL): 14.3 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
4. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 15.1 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
5. Tanner Houck (BOS): 16.7 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
6. Kodai Senga (NYM): 10.6 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
7. Luke Weaver (CIN): 15.1 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
8. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 14.0 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
9. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 9.6 SwStr%, 25.5 CSW%
10. Sean Manaea (SF): 10.2 SwStr%, 25.0 CSW%
1. Matt Strahm - 5.33 IP - 64.5 JA Points
2. Roansy Contreras - 6.67 IP - 55.25 JA Points
3. Tanner Houck - 7.0 IP - 49.5 JA Points
4. Luke Weaver - 6.0 IP - 44.75 JA Points
5. Ryan Feltner - 5.67 IP - 43.25 JA Points
6. Nestor Cortes - 6.0 IP - 40.75 JA Points
7. Brandon Hughes - 2.0 IP - 36.0 JA Points
8. Justin Lawrence - 2.33 IP - 28.0 JA Points
9. Tristan Beck - 5.33 IP - 26.5 JA Points
10. Scott McGough - 1.67 IP - 24.25 JA Points
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 4.0 GS - 61.82 JA Points
2. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 4.0 GS - 61.6 JA Points
3. Jeffrey Springs (TB) - 3.0 GS - 60.16 JA Points
4. Domingo German (NYY) - 3.0 GS - 54.55 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 2.0 GS - 52.61 JA Points
6. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 4.0 GS - 51.03 JA Points
7. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 4.0 GS - 49.27 JA Points
8. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 4.0 GS - 48.92 JA Points
9. Pablo Lopez (MIN) - 4.0 GS - 48.31 JA Points
10. Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 4.0 GS - 47.29 JA Points
Ryan Feltner's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 4.0mph to 88.9
Sean Manaea's SL velo (32 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 84.1
Sean Manaea's SI velo (35 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 93.5
Luke Weaver's FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 85.4
Javier Assad's FF usage (38.7%) up 17.3 points
Luke Weaver's CU usage (16.1%) up 12.8 points
Matt Strahm's CU usage (30.5%) up 14.4 points
Michael Grove's SL usage (38.8%) up 14.4 points
Nestor Cortes's ST usage (16.0%) up 14.6 points
Patrick Sandoval's CH usage (36.6%) up 12.0 points
Patrick Sandoval's FF usage (34.4%) up 11.1 points
Roansy Contreras's SL usage (53.8%) up 18.5 points
Ryne Nelson's FC usage (25.9%) up 17.5 points
Sean Manaea's SL usage (36.4%) up 21.6 points
Tanner Houck's FS usage (19.8%) up 12.9 points
Tanner Houck's FC usage (14.6%) up 11.5 points
Spencer Strider - 88 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Chris Sale - 89 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Johan Oviedo - 102 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 86 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Alex Cobb - 86 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 95 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Kodai Senga - 94 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 103 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
MacKenzie Gore - 86 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 98 TBF, 31.7% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 88 TBF, 40.9% K%
Chris Sale - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
Logan Gilbert - 90 TBF, 31.1% K%
Drew Rasmussen - 85 TBF, 30.6% K%
Nick Lodolo - 103 TBF, 30.1% K%
Joe Ryan - 94 TBF, 29.8% K%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 29.1% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 86 TBF, 29.1% K%
Sonny Gray - 92 TBF, 28.3% K%
Lance Lynn - 102 TBF, 27.5% K%
Spencer Strider - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 90 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 103 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 89 TBF, 23.6% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 98 TBF, 22.4% K-BB%
Drew Rasmussen - 85 TBF, 22.4% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 86 TBF, 22.1% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 93 TBF, 21.5% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 80 TBF, 64.0% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 89 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Brad Keller - 87 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Tanner Houck - 86 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Justin Steele - 94 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Alex Cobb - 86 TBF, 57.4% GB%
MacKenzie Gore - 86 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Johan Oviedo - 102 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Nick Martinez - 103 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 98 TBF, 53.7% GB%
James Outman (LAD) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jarren Duran (BOS) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Trent Grisham (SD) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jarren Duran, Yesterday: 111.6 Previous High: 110.4
Trent Grisham, Yesterday: 112.3 Previous High: 111.7
1. Jeff McNeil - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
2. Jarren Duran - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
3. Pete Alonso - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
4. Trent Grisham - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
5. James Outman - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
7. Eduardo Escobar - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
8. Matt Carpenter - 2.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
9. C.J. Cron - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
10. Anthony Rizzo - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
1. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 76.0 PA - 210.0 JA Points
2. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 76.0 PA - 169.47 JA Points
3. Jack Suwinski (PIT) - 48.0 PA - 168.33 JA Points
4. Corey Seager (TEX) - 49.0 PA - 161.63 JA Points
5. Will Smith (LAD) - 48.0 PA - 158.33 JA Points
6. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 74.0 PA - 155.14 JA Points
7. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 80.0 PA - 149.5 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 82.0 PA - 143.9 JA Points
9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 85.0 PA - 142.59 JA Points
10. Sean Murphy (ATL) - 69.0 PA - 141.45 JA Points
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 114.4mph - single
Trent Grisham (SD) - 112.3mph - double
Jarren Duran (BOS) - 111.6mph - field_out
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.4mph - nan
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 110.2mph - field_out
Yu Chang (BOS) - 109.7mph - home_run
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 109.5mph - single
Tommy Pham (NYM) - 109.3mph - field_out
James Outman (LAD) - 109.1mph - nan
Jack Suwinski (PIT) - 108.8mph - home_run
Matt Chapman - 71 PA, 48 BIP, 18 Brls, 37.5 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 44 PA, 26 BIP, 8 Brls, 30.8 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 64 PA, 36 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.8 Brl%
Max Muncy - 72 PA, 37 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.0 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 62 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 58 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 50 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 50 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 72 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Austin Hays - 67 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 71 PA, 0.523 xwOBA
Jack Suwinski - 44 PA, 0.504 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 64 PA, 0.5 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 83 PA, 0.486 xwOBA
Brandon Lowe - 58 PA, 0.476 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 73 PA, 0.458 xwOBA
Jorge Soler - 62 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 62 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 76 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Jarred Kelenic - 62 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Luis Arraez - 66 PA, 98 Swings, 93.9 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 82 PA, 122 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 132 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Luis Garcia - 46 PA, 83 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Mauricio Dubon - 62 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 87 PA, 169 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Alex Call - 60 PA, 87 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 80 PA, 131 Swings, 86.3 Cont%
Alec Bohm - 80 PA, 137 Swings, 86.1 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 70 PA, 99 Swings, 85.9 Cont%
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