MLB Daily Notes - April 21st
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Turned my phone off at like 7 last night and just now am seeing that everybody yelled at me for tweeting about Luis Castillo’s velocity being down.
I know that tweets show up to random people all the time so new people are seeing that tweet, but do you really think I’m just some dude monitoring every pitcher and then tweeting that stuff out manually? Doesn’t the format of it kind of imply it’s automated?
I also saw that Elon Musk claims to be cracking down on engagement farming on Twitter. Am I engagement farming? I don’t think so since the velo tweets are actual information that [some] people want.
It’s also not like the Twitter Ad Revenue sharing is even worth a ton of effort to farm engagement. I make no more than $35/month from that. There are plenty of accounts with like 500x more followers than me, so I guess those people make quite a bit if the rates are the same across the board. Anyways, it’s really a trip to make a tweet that gets you yelled at by 20 people all the while being asleep.
Pitcher Notes
Imanaga: Continued his fantastic MLB career with 6 innings strong innings. Five hits, two runs, five strikeouts, no walks. He’s at a 0.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP now with a 25.6% K% and 2.4% BB%. Did finally give up a homer yesterday, and that is going to be a thing for him and his fly-ball ways (39% FB%), but the SwStr (15.5%) and Ball% (32%) are fantastic.
Castillo: No velo, no problem. As the people pointed out, brutal conditions in Denver last night. That’s probaby an advantage to the pitch as long as they can grip the ball. 19.8% SwStr% and a 30% Ball% last night. Ace.
Ober: ERA after his first start: 54.14, ERA after his second start: 12.80, ERA after his third start: 6.57, ERA after his fourth start: 4.91. Since that first start he has a 1.06 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, a 26.2% K%, and a 4.9% BB%. Good job to you for holding on.
Cortes: A huge start for the lefty with seven shutout innings and nine strikeouts on 17 whiffs. He’s got a 19.5% K-BB% now and is looking a lot like his 2022 self.
Ragans: Gave up seven earned runs without giving up a homer or walking a hitter. That will definitely earn you a “least lucky” tweet:
Pretty solid 16.1% SwStr% and 59.7% Strike% while he was out there, so no reason to worry about the Ragdaddy.
Gallen: Another case of some bad luck, giving up five earned runs on a nice 6:1 K:BB and posting a good 15.2% SwStr%, but the ball rate was well below (or above, I guess) his standards (35.4%).
Burnes: He’s not getting whiffs yet this year. An 11.5% SwStr% and league-average 47% Strike%. And he has a 25% K% again, which is what he had last year. I think people were expecting the K% to come back up, but it’s not, and with that SwStr% and Strike% it would normally make me think 25% is a tick too high. If someone will pay you for Burnes as if he’s the game’s #1 overall SP, I think I’d take that trade for him at this point.
Berrios: Another strong six shutout innings and his ERA is down to 0.85 on a 1.01 WHIP. But bro, his K% is 21.8% with a 7.3% BB%, and he had more strikeouts (6) than whiffs (4) yesterday. This is a sell-high if I’ve ever seen one, although it will be much tougher with a known commodity like Berrios, since most people will understand this is likely just a “hot streak”. But he’s probably the #1 pitcher on your league’s player rater, so I would be trying to move him at this point.
Ashcraft: His good start came to an end as he posted a bad 10.2% SwStr% and 42% Strike% yesterday, and the walks came back (4:3 K:BB).
Harrison: Hit around a bit (4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB). He has a 47% Strike%, 10.1% SwStr%, and 33% Ball% on the year. That looks like a guy who depends on getting outs on contact, which you like a lot less with his low 36% GB%. I am pretty low on this guy.
Eovaldi: Very weird stuff here, a 15.2% SwStr% with a 6:6 K:BB. Just all over the place.
Crawford: Awesome against a Pirate offense that has posted a .476 OPS this week. Nice 17% SwStr% and 30% Ball% on a quality start with a 6:3 K:BB.
Here are your 1.000+ OPS hitters since April 7th (two weeks-ish):
Tyler Stephenson has homered in two straight and now has a 25.7% Brl%. That’s weird. Three dingers on a good but not great .794 OPS. He’s a good deep league catcher option if he’s available somewhere.
That’s it for Sunday. I am going to try my best to keep my phone and stuff off for most of the day. It seems that it’s a lot tougher to get frustrated with your kids and stuff when you aren’t trying to do multiple things at a time.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo
2. Bailey Ober
3. Zack Wheeler
4. Cole Ragans
5. Shota Imanaga
6. Nestor Cortes
7. Kutter Crawford
8. Zach Eflin
9. Ronel Blanco
10. Zac Gallen
11. Reese Olson
12. Jesus Luzardo
13. Nathan Eovaldi
14. Kyle Harrison
15. Corbin Burnes
16. Miles Mikolas
17. Roddery Munoz
18. Logan Allen
19. Graham Ashcraft
20. Patrick Sandoval
21. Michael Soroka
22. Trevor Williams
23. Alex Wood
24. Javier Assad
25. DL Hall
26. Jose Berrios
27. Jose Butto
28. Gavin Stone
29. Randy Vasquez
30. Charlie Morton
31. Mitch Keller
32. Dakota Hudson
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. COL): 35.95 Points
2. Zack Wheeler (vs. CWS): 34.69 Points
3. Nestor Cortes (vs. TB): 30.15 Points
4. Bailey Ober (vs. DET): 25.7 Points
5. Jose Berrios (vs. SD): 25.3 Points
6. Zach Eflin (vs. NYY): 23.7 Points
7. Kutter Crawford (vs. PIT): 21.5 Points
8. Shota Imanaga (vs. MIA): 20.5 Points
9. Roddery Munoz (vs. CHC): 19.45 Points
10. Charlie Morton (vs. TEX): 17.9 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo (SEA): 19 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
2. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 17 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
3. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 17 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
4. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 17 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 16 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
6. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 16 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
7. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 15 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
8. Zac Gallen (ARI): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
9. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
10. Bailey Ober (MIN): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans (KC): 59.7 Strike%, 24.2 Ball%
2. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 56.6 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
3. Luis Castillo (SEA): 55.2 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
4. Bailey Ober (MIN): 52.4 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
5. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 51.0 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
6. Jose Berrios (TOR): 50.5 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
7. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 50.0 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
8. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
9. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 49.4 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
10. Miles Mikolas (STL): 48.8 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
11. Trevor Williams (WSH): 48.1 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
12. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 47.1 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
13. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 46.9 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
14. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 46.7 Strike%, 41.0 Ball%
15. Zac Gallen (ARI): 46.5 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Trevor Williams: 77 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.28 POUT
2. Zach Eflin: 78 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.33 POUT
3. Bailey Ober: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
4. Luis Castillo: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
5. Zack Wheeler: 106 Pitches, 22 Outs, 4.82 POUT
6. Mitch Keller: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
7. Charlie Morton: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
8. Jose Berrios: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
9. Nestor Cortes: 102 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.1 POUT
10. Shota Imanaga: 92 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.11 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Corbin Burnes's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 3.7mph to 90.0
Jose Butto's CH velo (17 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.8
Gavin Stone's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 88.7
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (31 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.2
Gavin Stone's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 92.6
Jesus Luzardo's CH velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.7
Miles Mikolas's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.9
Miles Mikolas's FF velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.5
Dakota Hudson's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.1
Mitch Keller's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 87.7
Zac Gallen's CU velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 80.3
Luis Castillo's FF velo (61 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 94.1
DL Hall's FF velo (50 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 91.6
DL Hall's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 83.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andre Pallante's SI usage (30.2%) up 24.0 points
Bailey Ober's FC usage (29.3%) up 26.4 points
Graham Ashcraft's SI usage (21.6%) up 10.1 points
Javier Assad's FF usage (32.2%) up 12.0 points
Jose Berrios's SI usage (44.0%) up 11.5 points
Jose Butto's ST usage (13.7%) up 11.1 points
Logan Allen's FC usage (25.8%) up 14.6 points
Luis Castillo's FF usage (63.5%) up 18.5 points
Michael Soroka's SI usage (51.0%) up 13.0 points
Patrick Sandoval's CH usage (37.3%) up 10.8 points
Randy Vasquez's FF usage (44.3%) up 15.7 points
Randy Vasquez's ST usage (25.8%) up 11.8 points
Ronel Blanco's CH usage (34.7%) up 19.1 points
Trevor Williams's ST usage (16.9%) up 12.5 points
Zach Eflin's ST usage (16.7%) up 10.9 points
Zack Wheeler's FC usage (16.0%) up 14.9 points
Zack Wheeler's FS usage (13.2%) up 11.3 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 103 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 73 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Chris Sale - 98 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Aaron Civale - 67 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 74 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Michael King - 97 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 86 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Yusei Kikuchi - 66 TBF, 37.9% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 73 TBF, 35.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 35.2% K%
Reid Detmers - 86 TBF, 34.9% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Hunter Greene - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Garrett Crochet - 81 TBF, 32.1% K%
Zack Wheeler - 103 TBF, 32.0% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 85 TBF, 31.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 66 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Aaron Civale - 67 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 103 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Fried - 73 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 66 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 95 TBF, 63.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 92 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 66 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Brady Singer - 89 TBF, 58.6% GB%
Adrian Houser - 68 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Keaton Winn - 87 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 97 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Cole Ragans - 86 TBF, 27.9 K%, 4.7 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Hunter Greene - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 7.1 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 34.2 K%, 2.7 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 46 TBF, 34.8 K%, 2.2 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 63.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 73 TBF, 35.6 K%, 5.5 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 66 TBF, 37.9 K%, 7.6 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 31.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 103 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.8 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tanner Houck - +3.8% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Cole Ragans - +2.3% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +2.6% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Martin Perez - +2.8% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Brandon Pfaadt - +2.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +9.0% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.8% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Ryan Feltner - +4.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Joe Ryan - +3.0% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +2.3% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Ryan Weathers - +4.4% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Jake Irvin - +3.6% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Reid Detmers - +3.3% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Cody Bradford - +3.8% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Jose Urena - +4.9% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Kyle Muller - +3.9% CSW%, -7.6 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +2.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Nick Lodolo - +6.7% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Anthony Santander (BAL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Josh Naylor (CLE) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Max Schuemann (OAK) 3 PA, 2 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Reese McGuire (BOS) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Salvador Perez (KC) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Patrick Bailey, Yesterday: 109.7 Previous High: 108.6
Hardest Hit Balls
Brandon Drury (LAA) - 113.7mph - field_out
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.8mph - nan
Brandon Drury (LAA) - 112.4mph - single
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.3mph - single
Christopher Morel (CHC) - 111.4mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.2mph - nan
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 110.9mph - single
William Contreras (MIL) - 110.7mph - single
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 110.3mph - double
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.2mph - sac_fly
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Xander Bogaerts - 75 PA, 0.221 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.107 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 67 PA, 0.182 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 74 PA, 0.185 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff
Colt Keith - 67 PA, 0.206 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 72 PA, 0.243 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Enmanuel Valdez - 57 PA, 0.252 wOBA, 0.336 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Jake Cronenworth - 69 PA, 0.316 wOBA, 0.397 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Brayan Rocchio - 56 PA, 0.229 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 83 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.486 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Christopher Morel - 77 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.333 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Bottom 10
Ezequiel Tovar - 73 PA, 0.386 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 72 PA, 0.405 wOBA, 0.3 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Elias Diaz - 56 PA, 0.329 wOBA, 0.228 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Ryan Jeffers - 56 PA, 0.408 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Jose Altuve - 87 PA, 0.482 wOBA, 0.392 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Trea Turner - 84 PA, 0.42 wOBA, 0.333 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
William Contreras - 81 PA, 0.472 wOBA, 0.388 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
Daulton Varsho - 57 PA, 0.375 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 59 PA, 0.432 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Orlando Arcia - 66 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.265 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
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