MLB Daily Notes - April 22nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I paid very little attention to baseball this weekend, I even mowed the grass yesterday afternoon without listening to anything. I was naked, essentially. So now I have to catch up.
One little trick you can do with the MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard if you want to see basic box score lines for all starting pitchers over a certain day range:
Pick your date range, pick “MLB”, put “GS” to 1, and then sort by DK Points and you’ll get that screenshot. So these are the top fantasy point totals from Friday-Sunday.
Luis Gil
Showed us the good side of a super high K% and super high BB%. We saw the downside of that last week, but the nine strikeouts got him through 5.2 scoreless innings and the three walks didn’t hurt him. He now has a 34.5 K% (sixth-best) and a 20.2% BB% (somehow that’s only third-worst to Puk and Paxton).
Sonny Gray
The son is out. He punched out a dozen Brewers, and here’s what he’s done this year so far by the pitch mix:
Really good. The story with Gray for a long time has been that he has a bad fastball but a bunch of other good junk he can throw at hitters, so he doesn’t need the good four-seamer to be successful. I’d still consider him a sell if someone will value him as a top 20 SP, which plenty of people probably do.
Mitchell Parker
A name you don’t expect to show up at the top of a leaderboard. He threw seven scoreless innings with an 8:0 K:BB against the Astros. Wild stuff.
In 2023 he threw 124 innings between AA and AAA with a 27.9% K% and a 11.3% BB%. He’s a 24-year-old lefty whose headshot looks like something artificial intelligence came up with:
So the next question is obviously - is this guy a robot? Is he a lizard person? If there were a lizard person pitching in the Majors Leagues, they would definitely be on the team that plays in Washington D.C. Just saying.
His arsenal:
Three pitches, slow fastball, curveball and a splitter. Not an enticing mix of pitches at all. That’s a one-check pitcher for you right there:
One more check than Joe Boyle and James Paxton though, yikes.
Triston McKenzie
We got real hyped about his K prop on Friday. I was laughing to myself like HEH HEH THE BOOKS DON’T KNOW. But it turns out that I was the one who didn’t know.
Still not great numbers with the 11.9% SwStr% and 46.4% Strike%, but that’s about all you have to have when going up against the Athletics. Six strikeouts and one broken heart. He’s still awful right now though don’t have him on your rosters.
Do you want to know what pitchers have made four starts with single-digit swinging-strike rates? I sure do.
Oh there are actually way too many to list, so let just give you of interesting/relevant/surprising names under a 9% SwStr%.
Assad, Puk, DL Hall, Maeda, Lugo, Stripling, Bassitt, Gibson, Whitlock, Varland, Abbott, Logan Webb, Cole Irvin
I guess I was just straight up wrong about Louie Varland. A 39% Ball%, a 44.6% Strike%, and a pukey 7.6% SwStr.
And what I do? Act more stupidly… bought more Louie-V, my momma couldn’t get through to me
Perfect prophecy from Yeezy there. That’s on an album from like 2006 telling me not to draft Louie Varland this year.
Michael Lorenzen
Struck out seven friggin Braves this weekend.
There are no longer any kitchen sinks in Texas, Lorenzen has thrown them all. The 12.7% SwStr% is okay, but it’s actually a bit higher than we expect from Lorenzen, and the command hasn’t been good (39% Ball%), but I suppose we should forgive him on that since he had the late start and is just now getting going. Not a standard league pitcher, but he’s not the worst dude to have in a 15-team league or something.
Who had Jordan Westburg as being the Orioles best hitter in April? He is one of just 11 hitters with an OPS above 1.
Colton Cowser would be here too if we dropped the PA requirement. A look at some of these Orioles bats:
You have to start to wonder how long they will allow Holliday to play here with this going on.
Here are your 40% K% hitters (very low PA criteria here at just 30 PAs so we can get Holliday in there for the sake of rookie hazing):
You have to absolutely love Oneil Cruz being here and the Pirates having gone a full calendar week without a win. Spring Training should change absolutely nothing about your opinions man, what a mess.
At my home league draft I wanted Cruz, so at one point I flipped a coin between drafting him and Tarik Skubal. And the coin landed on Cruz, so I went there. I knew that I was being too emotional about it, so that’s kind of why I let the coin decide. So now if I don’t win my home league I will just blame that coin flip, nothing I could’ve done you know - the game’s all luck when I lose.
How about the dudes not striking out? Let’s be more positive. Sub-10% K% with 50+ PA:
Pederson, Moreno, Pasquantino, Arraez, Verdugo, Campusano, Dubon, Hoo Lee, O’Hearn
You definitely don’t expect Joc Pederson to ever be on this list, but it helps when they do not allow him to face left-handed pitching. All 55 of his PA’s this year have been against right-handed pitching. So that means that he’s going to put up good per-PA numbers, but he’s basically useless for fantasy purposes. Even when he faces a righty, he usually gets 2-3 PA’s and then the other team brings in a lefty to eliminate him and he’s gone.
I wonder how he feels about that. I mean he’s older I guess, he’s probably over it, but if it were me I’d be like bro let me play baseball. You’re paying me 12 milly. I suppose if he is mad, he should have thought of that before he decided to post a career 76 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
I noticed that Wilyer Abreu walks a lot yesterday when I was trying desperately to find some scraps to patch up my waiver wire. It’s an OBP league, so I added him. That made me think - what other available hitters have very high walk rates?
Pederson 18%
Frazier 16%
India 16%
R Palacios 16%
L Wade Jr. 16%
Gallo 16%
Polanco 16%
W Abreu 15%
P Meadows 15%
Tauchman 15%
Profar 15%
B Naylor 14%
Canha 14%
Sheets 13%
Butler 13%
N Lopez 13%
Garver 13%
So there’s some crappy OBP help for you if you’re in the pits like I am.
I am really doing awful in both of my main leagues, and that’s really sad. It’s not right or fair or even conceivable that I, Jon Anderson, after doing all of this fantasy baseball work, would be the owner and manager of a bad fantasy team. Original sin really took a toll, man. Thanks a lot, Adam and Eve.
I’m going to publish this bad boy now, but I will be back later with a podcast and a slate preview.
People are begging for more podcasts, it’s wild. So be on the lookout for that. I don’t know what I’m going to do yet… maybe it’s time to go team-by-team again.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Sonny Gray
2. Mitchell Parker
3. Luis Gil
4. Peter Lambert
5. Hunter Brown
6. Aaron Nola
7. Jose Soriano
8. Tanner Bibee
9. Michael Lorenzen
10. Kyle Hendricks
11. Jordan Hicks
12. Tyler Glasnow
13. Edward Cabrera
14. George Kirby
15. Cal Quantrill
16. Joe Musgrove
17. Emerson Hancock
18. Casey Mize
19. Frankie Montas
20. Martin Perez
21. Aaron Civale
22. Nick Nastrini
23. Darius Vines
24. Ross Stripling
25. Slade Cecconi
26. Chris Bassitt
27. Seth Lugo
28. Cole Irvin
29. Adrian Houser
30. Josh Winckowski
31. Colin Rea
32. Louie Varland
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Glasnow (vs. NYM): 37.8 Points
2. Mitchell Parker (vs. HOU): 33.95 Points
3. Luis Gil (vs. TB): 31.76 Points
4. Sonny Gray (vs. MIL): 30.64 Points
5. Aaron Nola (vs. CWS): 29.0 Points
6. Tanner Bibee (vs. OAK): 24.56 Points
7. Jose Soriano (vs. CIN): 23.9 Points
8. Michael Lorenzen (vs. ATL): 21.9 Points
9. George Kirby (vs. COL): 21.65 Points
10. Casey Mize (vs. MIN): 20.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sonny Gray (STL): 19 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Michael Lorenzen (TEX): 15 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Luis Gil (NYY): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Jose Soriano (LAA): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
6. Hunter Brown (HOU): 13 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
7. Aaron Nola (PHI): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Jordan Hicks (SF): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 12 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
10. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 12 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby (SEA): 56.8 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
2. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 56.2 Strike%, 21.9 Ball%
3. Sonny Gray (STL): 55.9 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
4. Luis Gil (NYY): 55.7 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
5. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 55.4 Strike%, 21.4 Ball%
6. Hunter Brown (HOU): 54.8 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
7. Jose Soriano (LAA): 53.3 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
8. Martin Perez (PIT): 51.6 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
9. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 50.5 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
10. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 50.0 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
11. Aaron Nola (PHI): 49.5 Strike%, 27.5 Ball%
12. Michael Lorenzen (TEX): 47.9 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
13. Peter Lambert (COL): 47.0 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
14. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 46.9 Strike%, 26.6 Ball%
15. Emerson Hancock (SEA): 46.6 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Mitchell Parker: 73 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.48 POUT
2. Slade Cecconi: 64 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.56 POUT
3. Aaron Nola: 91 Pitches, 24 Outs, 3.79 POUT
4. Tyler Glasnow: 101 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.21 POUT
5. Cole Irvin: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT
6. Kyle Hendricks: 56 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.67 POUT
7. Emerson Hancock: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
8. Sonny Gray: 93 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.89 POUT
9. Darius Vines: 74 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.93 POUT
10. Joe Musgrove: 99 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.95 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Slade Cecconi's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 86.1
Michael Lorenzen's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 87.0
Brent Suter's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 78.6
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.5
Cole Irvin's CU velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 75.7
Emerson Hancock's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.5
George Kirby's SI velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.1
George Kirby's FF velo (42 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 94.2
Brent Suter's SI velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 86.1
George Kirby's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 83.9
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (50 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 96.0
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (12 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 82.0
Hunter Brown's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -3.8mph to 87.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's ST usage (16.3%) up 13.4 points
Adrian Houser's CH usage (17.3%) up 11.8 points
Brent Suter's FF usage (45.1%) up 12.4 points
Cal Quantrill's FS usage (39.8%) up 23.5 points
Cole Irvin's CU usage (32.3%) up 14.7 points
Darius Vines's CH usage (45.9%) up 17.0 points
Edward Cabrera's CH usage (42.7%) up 10.8 points
Hunter Brown's FC usage (21.4%) up 19.0 points
Joe Musgrove's SL usage (29.3%) up 12.4 points
Jordan Hicks's FS usage (31.2%) up 25.9 points
Louie Varland's CU usage (28.4%) up 22.5 points
Ross Stripling's SI usage (24.7%) up 13.2 points
Slade Cecconi's CH usage (21.9%) up 15.0 points
Sonny Gray's CU usage (31.2%) up 12.9 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 80 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Michael King - 76 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 74 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Jon Gray - 67 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Ryan Feltner - 73 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Yusei Kikuchi - 66 TBF, 37.9% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 35.2% K%
Luis Gil - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Jon Gray - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Hunter Greene - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Garrett Crochet - 81 TBF, 32.1% K%
Zack Wheeler - 103 TBF, 32.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 66 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 103 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 85 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Fried - 73 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 66 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 92 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 77 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Jose Soriano - 76 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 87 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Keaton Winn - 87 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 72 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Ryan Feltner - 73 TBF, 55.6% GB%
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