MLB Daily Notes - April 23rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
First, I would like to say a few things about the Israel-Palestine conflict. No I’m just kidding.
Jared Jones is practically undefeated this year, I think he’s been the top algo pitcher in four of his five starts, if not all five. His 25 whiffs were the highest of the season in an individual start, he went for a 27.5% SwStr% and a 30.8% Ball%. I watched the game and he did look a lot less dominant in the 5th and 6th than earlier in the game, and I’m sure that had the Pirates brass close to soiling themselves.
But anyways, it was very good to see the Pirates take the leash off. He threw 91 pitches and got through six innings. It does make that last 59-pitch five-inning start make pretty much no sense. Why just do that randomly once and then take it off? Pretty weird.
But yeah I’m calling Jones the best healthy pitcher in the league right now, I don’t really see much argument with that now unless you’re still an #ERA bro. His 3.13 ERA isn’t even in the top 30 in the league! But then if you look at everything else, pretty much literally everything else, he’s the top guy.
SIERA Leaders
1. Jones 1.96
2. Peralta 2.11
3. Suarez 2.35
4. Ryan 2.41
5. Houck 2.60
6 . Crochet 2.61
7. Detmers 2.64
8. Wheeler 2.69
9. Flaherty 2.77
10. Castillo 2.80
Let me just put down some scatter plots and then I’ll move on from Jared Jones. I don’t want to say too much about him because then it looks like I’m way too into him, you know? I don’t need you, Jared Jones. I don’t need you.
The projected big Coors game from Dylan Cease materialized, and I did not win the DraftKings tournament because of it (and many other reasons…). He went seven innings giving up one hit, one run, and an 8:0 K:BB. Impressive stuff there. The Rockies are hitting
Overall: .237/.299/.365, .664 OPS
Road: .235/.299/.353, .651 OPS
Home: .240/.300/.380, .680 OPS
It’s only 368 PA, and it’s been cold for most of these games, so it’s not a fair shake yet, but we just don’t have to be afraid to roll out good pitchers in Coors like we used to. Back in 2017-2019 it felt like you couldn’t start anybody there, but that’s just not the case now, especially when the temperatures are down. All of the good pitchers haven’t had any trouble in Coors so far:
Pepiot: 38 points
Castillo: 36 points
Cease: 33 points
Kirby: 22 points
Gallen: 21 points
Littell: 16 points
Kelly: 16 points
Even Tommy Henry and Emerson Hancock have had decent starts in there, and nobody besides Tyler Alexander has had a truly bad one (looking at road pitchers only obviously).
A few other pitchers I really want to examine here.
Chris Paddack
7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 10 K, 0 BB, 16.7% SwStr%, 49% Strike%, 33% Ball%
I was lucky enough to pull the trigger on the stream there. I did not expect a ten strikeout game from Paddack, but that’s what the White Sox gave him. Not that he didn’t earn it, it was a very good outing.
So far this year for Paddack he has a 10.8% SwStr%, a 19.6% K%, and a 5.2% BB%. So the command is good but he hadn’t been able to fool anybody before yesterday. Was this spike game completely about the matchup? I don’t think it’s ever completely about the matchup. I wouldn’t expect a really bad pitcher to go dominate even the White Sox like that, but this is a potentially historically bad lineup without Luis Robert in it.
CWS: .190/.263/.285, .549 OPS, 24.7% K%, 8.1% BB%, 11 HR
That’s an OPS under .550 through 22 games, and the team is 3-19. That is crazy. Starting pitchers facing the White Sox have posted a 2.12 ERA and have given up just 9 homers in 131.1 innings (0.6 HR/9). They have won 13 of their 22 starts, an almost 60% win rate, which is nuts. Full streams ahead, baby.
As for Paddack, I think he’s in that “fringe/streamer” category right now. He threw 96 pitches yesterday, so the leash is off of him and the command is good enough to have success in the Majors. It won’t always be good, and really he wasn’t good at all prior to this start, but in good matchups I think he’s a viable option.
Albert Suarez
5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 5 K, 2 BB, 18% SwStr%, 41.6% Strike%, 41.6% Ball%
Little bit of luck here for Suarez since he had a horrible strike rate. In two starts now, he has a really good 18.3% SwStr%, but a crazy low 43.3% Strike%. That doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, and he’s clearly benefitting from called strikes.
I would consider Suarez in that same kind of range that we just talked about with Paddack. It wouldn’t seem that he’s anywhere near as good as he’s shown so far, but the whiff ability is there and that’s meaningful. He just needs to throw more pitches in the zone, I guess.
Keaton Winn
6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6 KK, 1 BB, 11.5% SwStr%, 52.9% Strike%, 31% Ball%
Speaking of called strikes. Winn is looking a bit like Logan Webb light (very light). He’s down to a fine 3.54 ERA and a nice 1.04 WHIP on the year with his 21.3% K% and 8.3% BB%. That’s not a good K-BB%, and the SIERA is 4.10, which makes him look like a league-average pitcher.
In most situations I would see the 11.3% SwStr% and pretty much write him off, but the fact that he leads this pitch mix with a splitter that he thrown in the zone a lot (51%) makes me feel like I have to evaluate him differently.
The 59.5% GB% is the key here. And that makes sense since he throws 64% splitters and sinkers, the two main ground ball pitches. You also like to see the velocity on the four-seamer, although it doesn’t grade out well in the Stuff+ model (70).
It seems like Winn will be someone who flummoxes me all year, and I don’t think he’s going to be a truly good fantasy starter, but given the good Ball% and high GB% in San Francisco, he could put up a good number of quality starts and I don’t think he’s going to be a 4.50+ ERA dude, so he’s a good target in deeper leagues where available.
Ranger Suarez
7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 K, 1 BB, 15.9% SwStr%, 42% Strike%, 38.6% Ball%
Another start here with a high SwStr% but low Strike%. Suarez has been one of the best fantasy starters in the game so far this year with four wins (tied for league lead with Glasnow and Berrios) and a 1.36 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. The 27% K% is way up from his priors and the 4.2% BB% is way down. But he still doesn’t show up very well on the SwStr% and Ball% stuff.
Sure-fire regression coming for Suarez soon (that’s true with anybody with an ERA below 1.50, of course, but even more so given Suarez’s history and lack of whiffs). So I would still be trying to sell high on him.
I wanted to know the list of pitchers that have posted a 47%+ Strike% in all of their starts so far (four starts minimum), here’s that list:
Wheeler (5)
Kirby (5)
Cease (5)
Jones (5)
Skubal (5)
Littell (5)
Kikuchi (5)
Sale (4)
Ryan (4)
Here are your four-for-fives:
Ragans, Castillo, Yamamoto, Crochet, Detmers, Greene, Berrios, Cortes, Sears
Hey how about JP Sears. He deserves some love! Game log:
A 14.8% K% is wildly low, especially after his seven strikeouts yesterday. This guy is really weird.
A bad 11% SwStr% but a godo 49% Strike% and really good 33% Ball%. The Stuff+ loves him (120), especially his sweeper (152) and changeup (120).
Any pitcher on the Athletics with a sub-10% K-BB% is an easy fade, but that will come up (14.7% last year), and that start was pretty interesting yesterday.
Pitches/Out Leaders, 2024
Logan Gilbert 4.49
Zach Eflin 4.53
Jared Jones 4.64
Tanner Houck 4.68
Jake Irvin 4.71
Michael Wacha 4.74
Paul Blackburn 4.81
Ronel Balnco 4.82
Bailey Falter 4.82
Tyler Anderson 4.83
Ranger Suarez 4.86
Moving on to the hitting side, Heston Kjerstad is coming up to Baltimore to replace Austin Hays. His 1.176 OPS leads AAA, and he’s homered ten times with a .349/.431/.744 slash line. The advanced metrics are nice as well with a 12.1% Brl%, a 78% Contact%, and a 41% GB% down there.
He did get some reps in the Majors last year:
32 PA, .233/.281/.467, 2 HR, 31% K%, 6.3% BB%
So that puts him a little bit ahead of other young call-ups. Good to see that he was able to hit a couple dingers in that short time in the Majors, but you can see the K% there. I think he’s a good add in 12-teamers or higher, I would imagine he plays most days and the power ability is there at least. But don’t be surprised at all to see a 30%+ K% come back.
AAA Homer Leaders
Joey Loperfido (HOU) 10
Heston Kjerstad (BAL) 10
Tristan Gray (MIA) 8
Kyle Garlick (ARI) 7
Coby Mayo (BAL) 7
Travis Blankenhorn (WSH) 6
Orelvis Martinez (TOR) 6
Mike Ford (CIN) 6
Kyle Stowers (BAL) 6
Hunter Goodman (COL) 6
Everson Pereira (NYY) 6
Conner Capel (CIN) 6
Andres Chaparro (ARI) 6
Some AAA pitchers possibly banging down the door to the Majors
Paul Skenes (PIT): 48.9% K-BB%
Cade Povich (BAL): 30.4% K-BB%
Brant Hurter (DET): 24.3% K-BB%
Mason Black (SFG): 23.5% K-BB%
I think today, right now, is the first time that I’ve been slightly pissed that Paul Skenes isn’t starting for the Pirates. We’re past the point where the Pirates get an extra year of control, Skenes threw 65 pitches last time out, and they’re starting Bailey Falter again today. If he’s going to throw 70 pitches this week, why not let him do it against the Brewers tonight?
Maybe it’s because Bailey Falter has a 4.05 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP right now (and a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts). Everybody knows that isn’t remotely for real though with his 12.7% K% and 6.3% BB%. So maybe they just don’t want to wait for him to get blown up before they take his job away, or maybe they really just want Skenes to get to 80+ pitches before debuting. None of this bothered me at all before this exact minute. I will do my best to get over it.
That will do it, on to the reports!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jared Jones
2. Dylan Cease
3. Joe Ross
4. Zack Littell
5. Chris Paddack
6. JP Sears
7. Tarik Skubal
8. Hunter Greene
9. Ranger Suarez
10. Yusei Kikuchi
11. Albert Suarez
12. Reid Detmers
13. Keaton Winn
14. Lance Lynn
15. Brandon Pfaadt
16. Carlos Rodon
17. Bryce Elder
18. Brady Singer
19. Jonathan Cannon
20. Ryan Weathers
21. Austin Gomber
22. Jose Quintana
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Paddack (vs. CWS): 36.15 Points
2. Tarik Skubal (vs. TB): 33.7 Points
3. Dylan Cease (vs. COL): 33.15 Points
4. Ranger Suarez (vs. CIN): 27.95 Points
5. Jared Jones (vs. MIL): 25.9 Points
6. JP Sears (vs. NYY): 25.1 Points
7. Keaton Winn (vs. NYM): 24.5 Points
8. Albert Suarez (vs. LAA): 23.16 Points
9. Bryce Elder (vs. MIA): 22.21 Points
10. Carlos Rodon (vs. OAK): 21.95 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jared Jones (PIT): 25 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
2. Dylan Cease (SD): 17 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Joe Ross (MIL): 17 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
4. Chris Paddack (MIN): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
5. Albert Suarez (BAL): 16 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
6. Hunter Greene (CIN): 16 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Zack Littell (TB): 15 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
8. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 14 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
9. JP Sears (OAK): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. Tarik Skubal (DET): 13 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (DET): 54.7 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
2. Keaton Winn (SF): 52.9 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
3. Jared Jones (PIT): 52.7 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
4. JP Sears (OAK): 51.6 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
5. Zack Littell (TB): 51.2 Strike%, 25.6 Ball%
6. Dylan Cease (SD): 50.0 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
7. Chris Paddack (MIN): 49.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 48.1 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
9. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 48.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
10. Joe Ross (MIL): 46.8 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
11. Reid Detmers (LAA): 46.5 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
12. Hunter Greene (CIN): 45.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
13. Brady Singer (KC): 43.9 Strike%, 39.3 Ball%
14. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 43.5 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%
15. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 42.5 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ranger Suarez: 88 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.19 POUT
2. Dylan Cease: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
3. Yusei Kikuchi: 81 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.5 POUT
4. Chris Paddack: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
5. Bryce Elder: 87 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.58 POUT
6. Carlos Rodon: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
7. Reid Detmers: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
8. Hunter Greene: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
9. Zack Littell: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
10. Tarik Skubal: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Dylan Cease's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 82.9
Brandon Pfaadt's CH velo (14 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.7
Austin Gomber's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 75.8
Austin Gomber's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 82.1
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 80.0
Reid Detmers's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 85.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brady Singer's FF usage (15.0%) up 12.7 points
Carlos Rodon's FC usage (15.2%) up 10.8 points
JP Sears's SI usage (13.2%) up 11.7 points
Jose Quintana's SI usage (45.1%) up 12.3 points
Keaton Winn's FF usage (40.2%) up 14.5 points
Ryan Weathers's CH usage (38.5%) up 14.3 points
Ryan Weathers's SI usage (16.7%) up 14.2 points
Tarik Skubal's SI usage (30.2%) up 15.1 points
Yusei Kikuchi's CU usage (30.9%) up 10.6 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 89 TBF, 39.0% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 80 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Michael King - 76 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 74 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 91 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Jon Gray - 67 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Ryan Feltner - 73 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 35.2% K%
Luis Gil - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Jon Gray - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Jared Jones - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Garrett Crochet - 81 TBF, 32.1% K%
Zack Wheeler - 103 TBF, 32.0% K%
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get absolutely everything that I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.