I have finally added some stuff about steals to the notes. Right in the middle of the hitting section, you’ll find SB attempt leaders for the last 10 days and last 30 days. That is long overdue so it’s good that it’s finally there.
Jack Flaherty was good yesterday?
He struck out nine Mariners and had a 22% SwStr%. He doesn’t show up on the velo changes or pitch mix changes sections here, so nothing was different about the pitches he was throwing - he must just have finally found some command. I don’t think we should let this fool us, he’s been pretty miserable even when healthy for the last couple of years, so we’ll need to see this once or twice more in short order to buy back into Flaherty, but maybe if he’s available on waivers you can make a speculative add on him just in case this was a sign of things to come.
Logan Allen, no not that one - the new one, showed out in his Major League debut yesterday:
A crazy impressive 19.8% SwStr% and all of his pitches contributed to that. I would think that earns him another few starts in the Major League rotation, so we can probably add him with some amount of confidence if he’s available. His next start would likely be in Boston this coming weekend.
Cleveland has long been one of those teams that will actually let their young pitchers throw some innings and get deep into games, although a lot of that came under Francona who isn’t there anymore - but I still would rather have my rookie SP acquisition on Cleveland rather than Tampa or LA.
For some incredibly dumb reason, I thought Francona was gone, but he’s not - he’s still there.
I currently have Brandon Pfaadt stashed in home league and I just did a dance where I considered dumping him for Allen, but I think for now I’ve decided not to do it. I’m guessing that Stupid Ass Clint will quickly go add Allen now, and as he should - his team is off to a miserable start. Say a sincere prayer for Stupid Ass Clint today. If you don’t get the Clint joke, you weren’t reading the notes last September - and that sucks for you, it really sucks.
Matt Carpenter was the JA hitter of the day. He is in a straight platoon with the Padres. He has 47 PAs against righties and just 7 against lefties. That makes him tough to start in a weekly league situation, but he’s pretty great if you can just play him against righties:
47 PA, 26% Brl%, 30% K%, 17% BB%
So that’s a little bit of empty power, but almost surely this guy is free in your league and he’s a good add in daily changes leagues where you can just pick your spots.
We have to talk about Vince Velasquez right? I mean seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts yesterday. Yes, it was at home against the Reds - which might turn out to be the best matchup in the league this year, but come on it’s impressive to have an outing like that even against a AAA lineup. And he has three straight quality starts now. The 24% K% - 10.6% BB% isn’t good, and he’s probably been a little bit fortunate to only have given up three homers so far (again, he’s faced some punchless lineups so far).
This is certainly one of those situations I always harp on - don’t trust one month of data over several years. Velasquez has been awful for several years so we shouldn’t let a few starts change our opinions. So yes, I just needed to talk myself off the ledge a little bit here.
Brayan Bello pitched again yesterday, making it only 4.2 innings with three earned, three strikeouts, and two walks.
However, the SwStr% is at 14.3% this year and that’s very nice along with the 59% GB%.
The main issue with Bello is the walks and therefore inefficiency. He’s going to have a tough time getting past five innings if he’s walking hitters and getting into really deep counts all the time. It’s notable that in 13.1 innings so far this year (including his rehab start) he has a 5% BB% - so that’s good. I think you can still be starting Bello in deeper leagues, although he’s a good guy to bench this week in favor of a two-start pitcher. The Red Sox are rolling with six SPs right now, so that means the guy that pitches on Sunday might not even get to make a start the following week if there’s a rainout - not a great situation.
Your boy bought Jack Suwinski and Jake Burger in TGFBI this week. I paid a lot for Jack, which is probably not advisable given that he’s a platoon dude with a high strikeout rate as well, but I was like second to last in dongs there so maybe he’ll fit in nicely. Love that guy.
As for Burger, he wasn’t in the original plans as a starter for the White Sox, but he’s hit his way into the lineup I think with five dingers on a sick 17.4% Brl/PA. But, of course, we have a 35% K% here - tale as old as time.
As for the hitters with high barrel rates and no strikeout problem, let’s check the freaking Brl% vs. K% scatter plot:
Luis Arraez and Mauricio Dubon are striking out so little that they’ve pushed past the 5% bound I set up on the plot. That’s annoying, give us a couple of strikeouts this week bro’s.
The good names here are the ones near the top-right. You can see that it’s really, really hard to be near the top right.
Here’s a table of all of the hitters with 70+ PA, a Brl% above 15%, and a K% below 25%:
Yandy is really something this year. Lifting the ball enough to post a strong barrel rate for the first time and he hasn’t given up contact while he’s been at it. I am very close to just calling him a fantasy stud, which is really strange!
The other name that really pops there is Jorge Soler, who is down at a 21% K% this year. Impressive stuff, and that 80 PA sample is significant. Go grab him now if you need some power.
Nolan Gorman and Jonah Heim continue with their strong seasons, and they are both on the Hot Hitter Tracker today.
Gorman is probably not going to be this good for very much longer. He’s made strides in K% (26%) and Cont% (69%), but both numbers still are beyond what we’d really hope for. I mean, a 26% K% will work just fine with his raw power - and he’s also really looking good at which pitches he’s swinging at (77% of his swings have been at pitches in the zone, his chase rate is 21% and both of those numbers are beating the league average by a lot). So I think he’s likely to be a guy you want to start at 2B all season long, but no the .300+ batting average thing just isn’t going to hang around. It’s pretty much impossible to do that with a K% above 20% and a high FB%, and Gorman is certain to have both of those stats when all is said and done.
As for Heim, he has a very nice 14% Brl% and a 19% K%. That comes with a strong 76% Contact%, so he’s checking all of the boxes. He’s the JA model’s #2 catcher:
On to the report, thanks for being here!
1. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 23 Whiffs (111 Pitches)
2. Jacob deGrom (TEX): 23 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
3. Jack Flaherty (STL): 23 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
4. Reid Detmers (LAA): 22 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
5. Cristian Javier (HOU): 19 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
6. Hunter Greene (CIN): 18 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Logan Allen (CLE): 17 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
8. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 17 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
9. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Vince Velasquez (PIT): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX): 28.8 SwStr%, 48.8 CSW%
2. Reid Detmers (LAA): 24.4 SwStr%, 36.7 CSW%
3. Jack Flaherty (STL): 22.1 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
4. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 16.8 SwStr%, 35.8 CSW%
5. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 13.3 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
6. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 14.5 SwStr%, 35.5 CSW%
7. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 20.7 SwStr%, 35.1 CSW%
8. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 14.3 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
9. Vince Velasquez (PIT): 15.0 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
10. Zach Eflin (TB): 7.5 SwStr%, 32.8 CSW%
1. Jacob deGrom - 6.0 IP - 104.5 JA Points
2. Zack Wheeler - 6.0 IP - 77.5 JA Points
3. Kevin Gausman - 7.0 IP - 76.0 JA Points
4. Eduardo Rodriguez - 7.0 IP - 75.75 JA Points
5. Vince Velasquez - 7.0 IP - 74.5 JA Points
6. Cristian Javier - 6.0 IP - 65.75 JA Points
7. Jack Flaherty - 6.0 IP - 55.25 JA Points
8. Logan Allen - 6.0 IP - 54.5 JA Points
9. Reid Detmers - 5.67 IP - 50.0 JA Points
10. Corbin Burnes - 5.0 IP - 46.5 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 5.0 GS - 67.41 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 4.0 GS - 61.82 JA Points
3. Jeffrey Springs (TB) - 3.0 GS - 60.16 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 5.0 GS - 55.65 JA Points
5. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 5.0 GS - 50.44 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 49.52 JA Points
7. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 4.0 GS - 48.92 JA Points
8. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 5.0 GS - 48.28 JA Points
9. Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 4.0 GS - 47.29 JA Points
10. Zac Gallen (ARI) - 5.0 GS - 47.12 JA Points
Yu Darvish's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 4.5mph to 91.9
Tylor Megill's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 78.9
Yu Darvish's FS velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 90.7
Max Fried's CH velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.7
Jose Urena's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 85.1
Grayson Rodriguez's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 77.8
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 80.1
Brayan Bello's CH usage (28.0%) up 14.1 points
Clarke Schmidt's SI usage (36.8%) up 17.4 points
Jacob deGrom's SL usage (47.5%) up 12.9 points
Jose Urena's SI usage (40.5%) up 10.7 points
Kyle Muller's CU usage (22.6%) up 10.1 points
Reid Detmers's SL usage (53.3%) up 17.6 points
Vince Velasquez's SL usage (49.0%) up 16.5 points
Zack Wheeler's FF usage (48.6%) up 10.5 points
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 39.6% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 37.6% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Chris Sale - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Johan Oviedo - 102 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 82 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 70 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 71 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Matt Strahm - 68 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 93 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 42.4% K%
Matt Strahm - 68 TBF, 38.2% K%
Sonny Gray - 70 TBF, 35.7% K%
Chris Sale - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 82 TBF, 34.1% K%
Kevin Gausman - 100 TBF, 34.0% K%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 33.7% K%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Logan Gilbert - 67 TBF, 31.3% K%
Pablo Lopez - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 38.8% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 100 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Matt Strahm - 68 TBF, 27.9% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 70 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 93 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 67 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 71 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 89 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Tanner Houck - 66 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 92 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Alex Cobb - 69 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Anthony DeSclafani - 92 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 91 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Brian Anderson (MIL) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jon Berti (MIA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Matt Carpenter (SD) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Austin Hays, Yesterday: 111.0 Previous High: 110.5
Ezequiel Duran, Yesterday: 112.8 Previous High: 110.5
Luis Rengifo, Yesterday: 110.4 Previous High: 110.0
1. Matt Carpenter - 4.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
2. Mike Trout - 4.0 PA - 64.0 JA Points
3. Justin Turner - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
4. Amed Rosario - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
5. Brian Anderson - 4.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
6. Paul DeJong - 4.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
7. Robbie Grossman - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
8. Josh Bell - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
9. Masataka Yoshida - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
10. Brandon Marsh - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
1. Brent Rooker (OAK) - 53.0 PA - 172.83 JA Points
2. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 89.0 PA - 168.54 JA Points
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 98.0 PA - 163.27 JA Points
4. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 89.0 PA - 152.36 JA Points
5. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 93.0 PA - 151.4 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 95.0 PA - 146.53 JA Points
7. Randy Arozarena (TB) - 93.0 PA - 144.09 JA Points
8. Jack Suwinski (PIT) - 60.0 PA - 139.33 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIA) - 79.0 PA - 139.24 JA Points
10. Mike Trout (LAA) - 91.0 PA - 130.99 JA Points
Joc Pederson (SF) - 115.6mph - foul
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 113.2mph - foul
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) - 112.8mph - double
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.7mph - home_run
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 112.3mph - double
Gavin Sheets (CWS) - 111.5mph - foul
Austin Hays (BAL) - 111.0mph - field_out
Mike Trout (LAA) - 110.6mph - double
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - 110.5mph - grounded_into_double_play
Brandon Lowe (TB) - 110.4mph - foul
Matt Chapman - 76 PA, 47 BIP, 16 Brls, 34.0 Brl%
Jake Burger - 46 PA, 24 BIP, 8 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 69 PA, 36 BIP, 11 Brls, 30.6 Brl%
Max Muncy - 74 PA, 38 BIP, 11 Brls, 28.9 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 66 PA, 39 BIP, 11 Brls, 28.2 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 56 PA, 30 BIP, 8 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Luke Raley - 47 PA, 26 BIP, 6 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Austin Hays - 69 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Trent Grisham - 81 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 76 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 69 PA, 0.505 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 76 PA, 0.483 xwOBA
Jarred Kelenic - 63 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 74 PA, 0.465 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 46 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Jack Suwinski - 56 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 46 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 77 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Jonah Heim - 57 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Jorge Soler - 63 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Luis Arraez - 62 PA, 107 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 87 PA, 130 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 81 PA, 126 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 84 PA, 136 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Mauricio Dubon - 73 PA, 149 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Tommy Edman - 67 PA, 94 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 88 PA, 175 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 69 PA, 97 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Jake McCarthy - 55 PA, 82 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Anthony Rendon - 51 PA, 82 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jeremy Pena - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Starling Marte - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
J.T. Realmuto - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Starling Marte - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
Gleyber Torres - 9 Attempts (5 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Myles Straw - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Wander Franco - 7 Attempts (4 steals)
Jeremy Pena - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Ian Happ - +3.9% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -5.6 Chase%
Jack Suwinski - +3.6% Contact%, +6.1 mph exit velo, -12.1 Chase%
Adolis Garcia - +15.0% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -15.8 Chase%
Christian Yelich - +7.6% Contact%, +7.6 mph exit velo, -6.6 Chase%
Javier Baez - +9.0% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -12.3 Chase%
Leody Taveras - +16.2% Contact%, +7.0 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Nolan Gorman - +8.8% Contact%, +8.3 mph exit velo, -11.8 Chase%
Jonah Heim - +5.4% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -8.0 Chase%
Joey Gallo - +12.5% Contact%, +12.4 mph exit velo, -4.0 Chase%
Jason Heyward - +16.2% Contact%, +7.5 mph exit velo, -17.3 Chase%
Adley Rutschman - 0.418 xwOBA, 10.5% Brl%, 84.6% Contact%, 16.2% Chase%, 15.8% K%
Alex Bregman - 0.459 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 83.7% Contact%, 15.2% Chase%, 6.5% K%
Connor Joe - 0.393 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 12.6% Chase%, 19.6% K%
Ian Happ - 0.41 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 77.5% Contact%, 18.6% Chase%, 20.3% K%
Jarred Kelenic - 0.496 xwOBA, 22.9% Brl%, 76.3% Contact%, 22.0% Chase%, 22.6% K%
Yandy Diaz - 0.482 xwOBA, 19.5% Brl%, 83.0% Contact%, 21.5% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Jason Vosler - 37.0% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.956 Cold Rating
Jazz Chisholm - 43.0% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.951 Cold Rating
David Villar - 43.5% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.93 Cold Rating
Brandon Crawford - 34.7% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.902 Cold Rating
Ji Hwan Bae - 34.5% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating
Jordan Walker - 32.9% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.883 Cold Rating
Nick Maton - 31.2% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 29.9% Whiff%, 74.3% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Kevin Smith - 38.5% Whiff%, 65.4% Weak%, 0.815 Cold Rating
Brice Turang - 33.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.815 Cold Rating
Luis Vazquez (CHC): 3/4, 4R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 39FPts
Alex Kirilloff (MIN): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 36FPts
Jeisson Rosario (NYY): 3/4, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Henry Davis (PIT): 3/3, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Phillip Evans (ARI): 3/5, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 33FPts
Greg Deichmann (OAK): 3/4, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 33FPts
Jorbit Vivas (LAD): 2/3, 2R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Jake Bauers (NYY): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Riley Mahan (SF): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
Dustin Harris (TEX): 2/3, 2R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 28FPts
Jake Walkinshaw (OAK): 6IP, 2H, 1ER, 6K, 1BB, 25FPts
Cole Winn (TEX): 5IP, 5H, 0ER, 7K, 1BB, 25FPts
Alex Troop (WSH): 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 3BB, 24FPts
Matt Andriese (LAD): 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 5K, 0BB, 23FPts
Drew Rucinski (OAK): 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 4K, 2BB, 20FPts
David Parkinson (PHI): 4IP, 5H, 1ER, 8K, 2BB, 20FPts
Blas Castano (NYY): 5IP, 3H, 2ER, 6K, 3BB, 19FPts
Domingo Robles (ATL): 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 5K, 3BB, 19FPts
Easton McGee (SEA): 6IP, 7H, 2ER, 5K, 2BB, 18FPts
Grant Wolfram (TEX): 2IP, 0H, 0ER, 4K, 0BB, 18FPts
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