For those of you who read my DFS piece yesterday, I did not win the big money on day one of my week-long concentrated effort to win the big money. One of three lineups cashed and it was a min-cash, barely sneaking in there thanks to Matthew Boyd and Brandon Drury’s double-doink.
Going full Strider was the right choice as he went off for 47 points, but Trout/Ohtani combined for just 12 points (in a game where the Angles scored 10 runs… and lost…), so I never had a chance.
Most of you don’t play DFS though, so you want to know what happened in the league more broadly yesterday.
League stats update:
Batting average sneaking ever closer to 2021/2022, but OBP still up there with the higher walk rate still sticking around. More base runners are being caught as that SB Success% continues to fall, and the home run rate is “normalizing” as well. As we have gotten more and more data, the numbers have started to look more and more like last season - except of course with the stolen base attempt rate - that has stayed high.
Here are some pitching numbers:
The 4.32 league ERA is pretty wild given 2022’s mark of 3.96. The WHIP last year was 1.27. A whole bunch more earned runs this year, which makes sense since there are a few more base hits and a bunch more bases being stolen.
It was a big deal to me when Shane McClanahan had 32 whiffs on Saturday, I thought it was nearly impossible to get past 30, but Strider did it last night at 31 (on 101 pitches). He and Jacob deGrom make up the top-two a whole bunch of times below, so it seems like Strider might actually be entering deGrom territory in the sense that those two are just in their own tier away from the rest of the league.
Brent Rooker is now the #1 JA model hitter, so things are getting weird. He’s hitting .333/.431/.729 with six homers, a 23.1% Brl%, a 17% K%, and a 16% BB%. His 15.5 Brl/PA is second only to Matt Chapman.
There’s definitely a whole lot of good fortune going on here. The 64% Contact% is bad, and that should lead to more strikeouts in the near future. He’s done all of this in only 58 PAs, so it could very well be a total fluke - and that’s why he’s still pretty low-owned as people aren’t excited to buy into a 28-year-old on the Oakland Athletics. But as we talked about in these notes before, Rooker was one of the best hitters in AAA last year as he slashed .299/.399/.646 with a 28% K% and a 13% BB%.
So if I had to guess, the K% will soon be in the mid/high-twenties and that will make him pretty uninteresting even if he is still homering at a sweet pace, but for now I think there’s enough good news to add him in leagues you need some dingers.
Matt Boyd had 19 whiffs yesterday. That took his season SwStr% to 15.3% and his K% to 23%. But we still have the erratic command with a 12% BB% this year, and he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground at all. There will certainly be some good outings for him, but there will be a bunch of awful ones as well.
Alex Cobb has been all over the place. Two starts ago he got a ton of whiffs and strikeouts but gave up hits and walks didn’t put together all that great of an outing. Last night he threw a complete game shutout but struck out just four batters.
He’s a frustrating case and a tough guy to roster, but you’ll get some gems like last night. Overall, the 9.8% SwStr% is pretty discouraging. The 62% GB% is obviously helpful, but with the shift gone and the Giants infield defense, I think you can be confident that Cobb is going to have a quite bad WHIP this year.
Taj Bradley pitched again and overcame a tough first inning to beat the Astros. He threw five innings with six strikeouts and no walks, so that’s a really welcome sign - and you should feel pretty good about him if you attacked him heavily with your FAAB money this weekend.
Sonny Gray did the strikeout thing again and now has a 35% K% on the year with a 7% BB% and a 48% GB%. If you’re a loyal notes reader, you know that makes him a MAGIC FORMULA QUALIFIER, and paid subs can see his name on that list below the paywall. His pitch mix this year:
The curveball is working very, very well, and he has no lack of pitches to back it up with. I just can’t get past the whiff counts bouncing around so crazily. It doesn’t seem like there’s much consistency with the guy, and I’d probably be looking to sell high on him just because of that - but that’s not necessarily reasoned advice, just what I would be doing if I had any (I don’t…).
Rafael Devers hit his hardest ball of the last three seasons, a 115 mph home run. So, congrats to Devers! If he’s on waivers in your league, I’d probably pick him up!
Okay, I’ve done it. I got up at 6 am and got my RotoBaller DFS piece, the projections and dashboards updated, and got these notes done before 7:30. Incredible work by me, maybe I should have a celebratory drink or two tonight Go Bucs!
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 31 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. Matthew Boyd (DET): 19 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
3. Sonny Gray (MIN): 18 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
4. Jose Suarez (LAA): 15 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
5. Lance Lynn (CWS): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
6. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 14 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
7. Jordan Montgomery (STL): 13 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
8. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 12 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
10. Taj Bradley (TB): 10 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 30.7 SwStr%, 46.5 CSW%
2. Matthew Boyd (DET): 21.8 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
3. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 15.7 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
4. Sonny Gray (MIN): 16.8 SwStr%, 34.6 CSW%
5. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 11.6 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
6. Jose Suarez (LAA): 18.8 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
7. Dean Kremer (BAL): 5.7 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
8. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 13.5 SwStr%, 29.2 CSW%
9. Austin Gomber (COL): 6.0 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%
10. Lance Lynn (CWS): 13.9 SwStr%, 27.7 CSW%
1. Spencer Strider - 8.0 IP - 119.25 JA Points
2. Sonny Gray - 7.0 IP - 75.0 JA Points
3. Matthew Boyd - 5.0 IP - 69.5 JA Points
4. Jordan Montgomery - 6.0 IP - 57.25 JA Points
5. Nathan Eovaldi - 6.0 IP - 54.5 JA Points
6. Ronel Blanco - 2.0 IP - 32.25 JA Points
7. Tucker Davidson - 2.33 IP - 31.25 JA Points
8. Taj Bradley - 5.0 IP - 31.25 JA Points
9. Chris Bassitt - 6.33 IP - 29.75 JA Points
10. Bryse Wilson - 2.0 IP - 29.5 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 5.0 GS - 67.41 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 5.0 GS - 65.21 JA Points
3. Jeffrey Springs (TB) - 3.0 GS - 60.16 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 5.0 GS - 55.65 JA Points
5. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 5.0 GS - 50.44 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 49.52 JA Points
7. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 5.0 GS - 48.28 JA Points
8. Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 4.0 GS - 47.29 JA Points
9. Taj Bradley (TB) - 3.0 GS - 47.28 JA Points
10. Zac Gallen (ARI) - 5.0 GS - 47.12 JA Points
Austin Gomber's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 78.7
Chris Sale's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 80.0
Matthew Boyd's FF velo (40 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 92.4
Matthew Boyd's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 80.4
Taj Bradley's FC velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.2
Austin Gomber's FF usage (54.2%) up 12.7 points
Chris Sale's FF usage (45.8%) up 13.9 points
Colin Rea's FF usage (29.1%) up 10.5 points
Jhony Brito's CU usage (30.0%) up 12.5 points
Jordan Montgomery's CH usage (28.0%) up 11.1 points
Jose Suarez's CH usage (37.5%) up 13.2 points
Jose Urquidy's ST usage (39.7%) up 16.1 points
Lance Lynn's FC usage (34.7%) up 13.5 points
Sonny Gray's FC usage (33.6%) up 19.0 points
Taj Bradley's FC usage (45.1%) up 16.7 points
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 41.8% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 39.6% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 37.6% CSW%
Johan Oviedo - 78 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 96 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 82 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 94 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Matt Strahm - 68 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 93 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 43.5% K%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 42.4% K%
Matt Strahm - 68 TBF, 38.2% K%
Sonny Gray - 94 TBF, 35.1% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 82 TBF, 34.1% K%
Kevin Gausman - 100 TBF, 34.0% K%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 33.7% K%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Logan Gilbert - 67 TBF, 31.3% K%
Joe Ryan - 71 TBF, 31.0% K%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 38.8% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 34.8% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 100 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Matt Strahm - 68 TBF, 27.9% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 93 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 67 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Alex Cobb - 102 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Brad Keller - 85 TBF, 61.8% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 71 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Tanner Houck - 66 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Jake Woodford - 66 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 92 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Brandon Drury (LAA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Brent Rooker (OAK) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jesus Aguilar (OAK) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Josh Jung (TEX) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Matt Chapman (TOR) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Randy Arozarena (TB) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Sam Hilliard (ATL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Rafael Devers, Yesterday: 115.0 Previous High: 114.4
1. Jesus Aguilar - 4.0 PA - 78.0 JA Points
2. Brandon Drury - 5.0 PA - 76.0 JA Points
3. Josh Jung - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
4. Brent Rooker - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Sam Hilliard - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
6. Mike Moustakas - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
7. James McCann - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
8. Masataka Yoshida - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
9. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
10. Trevor Larnach - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
1. Brent Rooker (OAK) - 58.0 PA - 193.79 JA Points
2. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 93.0 PA - 171.18 JA Points
3. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 94.0 PA - 154.47 JA Points
4. Randy Arozarena (TB) - 98.0 PA - 150.61 JA Points
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 103.0 PA - 145.63 JA Points
6. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 97.0 PA - 144.33 JA Points
7. Jack Suwinski (PIT) - 60.0 PA - 139.33 JA Points
8. Luis Arraez (MIA) - 79.0 PA - 139.24 JA Points
9. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 92.0 PA - 136.09 JA Points
10. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 99.0 PA - 133.74 JA Points
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 115.0mph - home_run
Sam Hilliard (ATL) - 114.8mph - home_run
Sean Murphy (ATL) - 113.8mph - home_run
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) - 112.3mph - single
Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 111.7mph - field_out
Triston Casas (BOS) - 111.0mph - home_run
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 111.0mph - double
Joey Gallo (MIN) - 110.6mph - home_run
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 110.1mph - single
Javier Baez (DET) - 109.7mph - grounded_into_double_play
Matt Chapman - 76 PA, 48 BIP, 17 Brls, 35.4 Brl%
Jake Burger - 49 PA, 26 BIP, 8 Brls, 30.8 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 74 PA, 39 BIP, 12 Brls, 30.8 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 66 PA, 36 BIP, 11 Brls, 30.6 Brl%
Max Muncy - 69 PA, 37 BIP, 11 Brls, 29.7 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 52 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 71 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 51 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Trent Grisham - 77 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 74 PA, 0.515 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 76 PA, 0.496 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 51 PA, 0.489 xwOBA
Jarred Kelenic - 63 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 69 PA, 0.478 xwOBA
Jack Suwinski - 52 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Jonah Heim - 55 PA, 0.459 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 79 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 82 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 49 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Nico Hoerner - 82 PA, 123 Swings, 93.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 57 PA, 99 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 79 PA, 119 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 80 PA, 130 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 59 PA, 97 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Alec Burleson - 57 PA, 100 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Mauricio Dubon - 72 PA, 142 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Tommy Edman - 66 PA, 89 Swings, 86.5 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 77 PA, 118 Swings, 86.4 Cont%
Alex Call - 67 PA, 102 Swings, 86.3 Cont%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jeremy Pena - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Wander Franco - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Tyler Wade - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
J.T. Realmuto - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Starling Marte - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Starling Marte - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Gleyber Torres - 9 Attempts (5 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Wander Franco - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Myles Straw - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Nico Hoerner - +10.6% Contact%, +5.8 mph exit velo, -10.8 Chase%
Adolis Garcia - +8.5% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -10.4 Chase%
Javier Baez - +11.3% Contact%, +6.6 mph exit velo, -15.3 Chase%
Joey Gallo - +14.2% Contact%, +9.1 mph exit velo, -4.9 Chase%
Willson Contreras - +5.9% Contact%, +5.8 mph exit velo, -11.9 Chase%
Seiya Suzuki - +5.3% Contact%, +7.7 mph exit velo, -3.9 Chase%
Akil Baddoo - +7.0% Contact%, +6.1 mph exit velo, -11.8 Chase%
Nolan Gorman - +8.0% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -11.0 Chase%
Leody Taveras - +11.6% Contact%, +8.3 mph exit velo, -3.4 Chase%
Christian Yelich - +3.4% Contact%, +7.1 mph exit velo, -5.8 Chase%
Adley Rutschman - 0.388 xwOBA, 10.5% Brl%, 83.5% Contact%, 14.9% Chase%, 15.8% K%
Alex Bregman - 0.47 xwOBA, 10.9% Brl%, 85.9% Contact%, 15.8% Chase%, 4.9% K%
Connor Joe - 0.393 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 12.6% Chase%, 19.6% K%
Ian Happ - 0.421 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 77.3% Contact%, 18.7% Chase%, 20.0% K%
Jarred Kelenic - 0.492 xwOBA, 21.9% Brl%, 78.2% Contact%, 21.7% Chase%, 21.3% K%
Yandy Diaz - 0.472 xwOBA, 17.4% Brl%, 84.1% Contact%, 22.1% Chase%, 12.9% K%
Jason Vosler - 40.0% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.967 Cold Rating
Jazz Chisholm - 43.5% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.948 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 33.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.929 Cold Rating
Ji Hwan Bae - 34.5% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.907 Cold Rating
David Villar - 39.3% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.899 Cold Rating
Eloy Jimenez - 37.8% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.89 Cold Rating
Yasmani Grandal - 33.8% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.885 Cold Rating
Jordan Walker - 31.4% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.875 Cold Rating
Brice Turang - 32.1% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Nick Maton - 29.6% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating
No minor league games yesterday as is the case with most Mondays
Jake Bauers (AAA - NYY) 73 PA 1.339 OPS
Jorbit Vivas (AA - LAD) 70 PA 1.286 OPS
Robbie Tenerowicz (AA - SEA) 67 PA 1.244 OPS
Nolan Jones (AAA - COL) 76 PA 1.228 OPS
Christopher Morel (AAA - CHC) 83 PA 1.214 OPS
Buddy Kennedy (AAA - ARI) 76 PA 1.214 OPS
Phillip Evans (AAA - ARI) 80 PA 1.19 OPS
Mark Vientos (AAA - NYM) 81 PA 1.163 OPS
Brian O'Keefe (AAA - SEA) 69 PA 1.142 OPS
Jo Adell (AAA - LAA) 95 PA 1.139 OPS
Eddy Alvarez (AAA - MIL) 66 PA 1.132 OPS
Tyler Freeman (AAA - CLE) 69 PA 1.118 OPS
Justyn-Henry Malloy (AAA - DET) 91 PA 1.118 OPS
Cody Thomas (AAA - OAK) 92 PA 1.102 OPS
Luken Baker (AAA - STL) 83 PA 1.098 OPS
Trey Cabbage (AAA - LAA) 76 PA 1.098 OPS
Ronny Mauricio (AAA - NYM) 86 PA 1.083 OPS
Mike Ford (AAA - SEA) 76 PA 1.082 OPS
Trenton Brooks (AAA - OAK) 68 PA 1.073 OPS
Peyton Burdick (AAA - MIA) 86 PA 1.063 OPS
Pat Monteverde (AA - MIA) 19 IP 42.8% K-BB
Casey Lawrence (AAA - TOR) 19 IP 33.8% K-BB
Allan Winans (AAA - ATL) 21 IP 27.4% K-BB
Bryan Hoeing (AAA - MIA) 17 IP 26.9% K-BB
Brandon Pfaadt (AAA - ARI) 20 IP 25.3% K-BB
Matthew Liberatore (AAA - STL) 27 IP 24.3% K-BB
Michael McGreevy (AA - STL) 18 IP 21.1% K-BB
Michael Plassmeyer (AAA - PHI) 17 IP 19.5% K-BB
Elvin Rodriguez (AAA - TB) 23 IP 16.9% K-BB
Chase Silseth (AAA - LAA) 20 IP 15.6% K-BB
Julio Teheran (AAA - SD) 18 IP 15.5% K-BB
Cody Bradford (AAA - TEX) 23 IP 14.8% K-BB
Cory Abbott (AAA - WSH) 18 IP 14.5% K-BB
Matt Andriese (AAA - LAD) 23 IP 13.5% K-BB
Brenan Hanifee (AAA - DET) 20 IP 13.3% K-BB
Joan Adon (AAA - WSH) 20 IP 13.3% K-BB
Drew Rom (AAA - BAL) 21 IP 13.1% K-BB
Luis Ortiz (AAA - PIT) 23 IP 13.0% K-BB
Easton McGee (AAA - SEA) 28 IP 12.7% K-BB
Humberto Mejia (AAA - NYM) 18 IP 12.7% K-BB
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