This whiffs leaderboard is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen. Josiah Gray with 20, Luke Weaver with 19, Jose Berrios with 16 to lead the day.
Let’s start with Josiah Gray, here’s his season pitch mix:
He has lowered the four-seam usage even more in favor of the slider and curveball. But yesterday, he actually brought the four-seam usage back up.
He had been throwing mostly slider, but yesterday he threw mostly four-seamers. The four-seamer obviously worked fine yesterday, but that’s the pitch that has long been just terribly located and that’s held him down majorly. It was a good sign to see him dedicate himself to just throwing his best pitches more often, but I guess it’s pretty encouraging to see him have a sweet start like that (against the Mets, no less) while throwing the four-seamer a lot. He got a sweet 17% SwStr% on the pitch last night and didn’t give up a barrel.
Last year, he only had four outings without giving up a barrel. This year, he’s not allowed a barrel in three of his five outings.
For the year, his 21.4% K% is less than exciting but the 13.3% SwStr% suggests that should be better, and he’s limited walks (8.5% BB%, below the current league average) and barrels (6.3%).
It’s important to understand, and something I talked about a lot this offseason - allowing barrels is largely a random endeavor. Barrel rates allowed is not a sticky stat year-over-year. If you give up a Brl% of 12% in year N, that says very little about what to expect from year N+1. You are more likely to just give up the league average Brl% (7-8%) than you are to allow something closer to your previous year. For me, this made Josiah Gray a pretty good buy-low this year since everybody was running for the hills mostly because of all the homers he’s allowed. He looks good this year. And don’t forget, he was one of the most hyped prospects in the league just a few years ago. I’d add him in very deep leagues and monitor him in shallower leagues.
As for Luke Weaver (I always hear Adam Aizer singing Luuuukke Weeeaavverrr when I hear that name - shout out to the CBS Fantasy Baseball podcast from back in 2018 when I actually listened to it), he was good yet again, and that’s weird!
He’s thrown 192 pitches so hold your horses a bit, but here it is:
Getting a ton of whiffs on the four-seamer and the changeup so far, and has the cutter/sinker there to mix in as well. This is Luke Weaver we’re talking about, so we’re going to have to wait several more starts before we start really believing in him - but it’s certainly a start to the year worth monitoring.
And the third man was Jose Berrios, who has just been good this year there’s no other way to say it. I have been slamming him into DK lineups this year because he’s looked sharp out of the gate. So far he has a 26% K%, a 4% BB%, and a 14% SwStr%. Here’s the list of pitchers with
3+ GS
K% > 25%
BB < 5%
SwStr% > 13%
If Berrios is available you should definitely go get him, but don’t come crying to me when he gives up nine earned runs next time out. I’m here to get credit for my good advice, not criticism for my bad advice.
The other name on there is Taj Bradley who was demoted yesterday - never trust a rookie! He’ll certainly be back, and he’ll probably be back in the next few weeks, but he’s going to be a frustrating guy to roster in fantasy leagues since his playing time will be sparse and unpredictable.
The Pirates winning streak came to an end, but it wasn’t really the fault of Johan Oviedo who I thought pitched quite well again. The Dodgers lineup is lacking right now, but it’s still a better-than-average group of hitters. Here’s the update on Oviedo’s pitch mix:
Two really good breaking balls making up 60% of his pitches, and the fastball isn’t getting completely destroyed - so that’s pretty good. He should be universally rostered moving forward until things change, he’s looked like one of the better pitchers in the league so far (he’s ranked #23 on the JA ranks right now).
I do plan on writing up a post here on how these JA ranks come to be since they are cited in the notes and in my tweets a bunch. I’ll give out the formulas and explanation in due time, so be on the lookout for that.
Charlie Blackmon had three barrels yesterday. That doubled his season total from 3 to 6. He had just 19 last year. I don’t believe he has more power this year than last, that just doesn’t make any sense given that we are all subject to natural law. But he’s still not striking out and that works for some leagues when you play in Coors, but I wouldn’t be excited about him being a power hitter again.
Jarred Kelenic is now the #3 hitter on the hitter ranks. He’s hitting .342/.395/.726 with seven dongballs and a really encouraging 25% K%. The contact rate is up to 77% - so yeah, it seems that the breakout is on. Shout out to you people who stood by him.
The lesson of 2023 so far has been about post-hype breakouts. We have seen most of the rookie hitters struggle, and some of them have struggled mightily, and we have seen plenty of examples of previously high-touted prospects that were really bad in their first year or two now seem to have made a huge step forward. I’m thinking of Brandon Marsh, Josh Lowe, Nolan Gorman, Jarred Kelenic - and there are probably even a few more.
The tragic thing is that we shouldn’t even be surprised by this. Going from the minors to the Majors is just a massive jump and it’s really freaking hard to just keep up the production when you’re suddenly facing opponents that are so much better than what you’re used to. Raw talent gets forgotten about real quick, but it doesn’t go away. This is something to exploit in drafts in the future. Find these previously hyped prospects that fell flat in their first year or two and draft them - the talent is still there, and lots of experience is often needed to get the players to where they need to be.
One last thing, Joey Gallo has a 70% contact% and a 29% K%. If those two numbers sustain, he’s going to a useful fantasy option - and a very useful one in OBP leagues. He has six bombs and a sweet ass 18% Brl/PA this year. Add him if you need power, but just keep an eye on that K% and Contact%.
And off we go onto the normal report!
1. Josiah Gray (WSH): 20 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
2. Luke Weaver (CIN): 19 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
3. Jose Berrios (TOR): 16 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
4. Luis Garcia (HOU): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Charlie Morton (ATL): 14 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
6. Joe Ryan (MIN): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
7. Griffin Canning (LAA): 14 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
8. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
9. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 12 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
10. Bailey Falter (PHI): 11 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
1. Josiah Gray (WSH): 22.0 SwStr%, 37.4 CSW%
2. Joe Ryan (MIN): 15.4 SwStr%, 37.4 CSW%
3. Charlie Morton (ATL): 13.0 SwStr%, 37.0 CSW%
4. Jose Berrios (TOR): 15.5 SwStr%, 36.9 CSW%
5. Luke Weaver (CIN): 19.2 SwStr%, 35.4 CSW%
6. Brady Singer (KC): 10.9 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
7. Griffin Canning (LAA): 15.9 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
8. Luis Garcia (HOU): 15.5 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
9. Ryan Feltner (COL): 8.5 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
10. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 10.8 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%
1. Josiah Gray - 6.0 IP - 85.5 JA Points
2. Jose Berrios - 7.0 IP - 80.75 JA Points
3. Joe Ryan - 7.0 IP - 66.75 JA Points
4. Luis Garcia - 7.0 IP - 64.75 JA Points
5. Charlie Morton - 7.0 IP - 62.75 JA Points
6. Brady Singer - 6.0 IP - 53.5 JA Points
7. Martin Perez - 6.33 IP - 46.25 JA Points
8. Nestor Cortes - 5.0 IP - 41.75 JA Points
9. Justin Steele - 5.33 IP - 41.25 JA Points
10. Johan Oviedo - 5.33 IP - 40.75 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 5.0 GS - 67.41 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 5.0 GS - 65.21 JA Points
3. Jeffrey Springs (TB) - 3.0 GS - 60.16 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 5.0 GS - 55.65 JA Points
5. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 5.0 GS - 50.44 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 49.52 JA Points
7. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 5.0 GS - 48.28 JA Points
8. Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 4.0 GS - 47.29 JA Points
9. Taj Bradley (TB) - 3.0 GS - 47.28 JA Points
10. Zac Gallen (ARI) - 5.0 GS - 47.12 JA Points
Ryne Nelson's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 77.8
Jake Woodford's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 77.1
Eric Lauer's FC velo (22 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.5
Luis Garcia's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 78.4
Jose Butto's FF velo (53 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.6
Ryan Feltner's FF velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 93.2
Brady Singer's SL velo (34 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 82.0
Drew Rasmussen's SI usage (25.5%) up 16.4 points
Jose Berrios's CH usage (24.3%) up 11.6 points
Josiah Gray's FF usage (45.1%) up 26.6 points
Luis Garcia's FC usage (41.7%) up 13.7 points
Luke Weaver's FF usage (53.1%) up 15.5 points
Marco Gonzales's CU usage (34.7%) up 14.1 points
Nestor Cortes's FF usage (61.2%) up 15.4 points
Noah Syndergaard's FC usage (25.0%) up 10.9 points
Peyton Battenfield's FF usage (48.5%) up 16.5 points
Spencer Turnbull's FF usage (46.7%) up 10.3 points
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 41.8% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 39.6% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 37.6% CSW%
Johan Oviedo - 104 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 88 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 96 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 99 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 94 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 82 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 43.5% K%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 42.4% K%
Sonny Gray - 94 TBF, 35.1% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 82 TBF, 34.1% K%
Kevin Gausman - 100 TBF, 34.0% K%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 33.7% K%
Pablo Lopez - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Joe Ryan - 99 TBF, 29.3% K%
Yu Darvish - 76 TBF, 28.9% K%
Grayson Rodriguez - 87 TBF, 28.7% K%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 38.8% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 34.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 100 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 96 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 96 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 88 TBF, 22.7% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 22.4% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 81 TBF, 67.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Alex Cobb - 102 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Brad Keller - 85 TBF, 61.8% GB%
Jake Woodford - 87 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 92 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 91 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Johan Oviedo - 104 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Zach Plesac - 76 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Charlie Blackmon (COL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Danny Jansen (TOR) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ozzie Albies (ATL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Joc Pederson, Yesterday: 116.6 Previous High: 116.3
1. Jarred Kelenic - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
2. Danny Jansen - 4.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
3. Yan Gomes - 4.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
4. Keibert Ruiz - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Ozzie Albies - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
6. Charlie Blackmon - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
7. Jarren Duran - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
8. Gunnar Henderson - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
9. Chris Taylor - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
10. Corbin Carroll - 5.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
1. Brent Rooker (OAK) - 62.0 PA - 189.03 JA Points
2. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 97.0 PA - 167.84 JA Points
3. Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 81.0 PA - 151.6 JA Points
4. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 98.0 PA - 146.94 JA Points
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 107.0 PA - 143.18 JA Points
6. Randy Arozarena (TB) - 102.0 PA - 141.57 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 103.0 PA - 139.81 JA Points
8. Luis Arraez (MIA) - 79.0 PA - 139.24 JA Points
9. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 102.0 PA - 138.82 JA Points
10. Jack Suwinski (PIT) - 65.0 PA - 135.38 JA Points
Joc Pederson (SF) - 116.6mph - single
Mike Trout (LAA) - 112.0mph - field_out
Michael Conforto (SF) - 111.1mph - nan
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 110.2mph - single
Brandon Drury (LAA) - 110.1mph - triple
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) - 109.6mph - double
Michael Conforto (SF) - 109.6mph - single
Joc Pederson (SF) - 109.3mph - nan
Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 109.2mph - nan
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 108.9mph - nan
Matt Chapman - 76 PA, 47 BIP, 16 Brls, 34.0 Brl%
Jake Burger - 52 PA, 27 BIP, 8 Brls, 29.6 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 74 PA, 41 BIP, 12 Brls, 29.3 Brl%
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 35 BIP, 10 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 61 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 55 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 57 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 70 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Christian Bethancourt - 44 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 74 PA, 0.513 xwOBA
Jarred Kelenic - 67 PA, 0.507 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 76 PA, 0.49 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 0.484 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 55 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Jonah Heim - 59 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Christian Bethancourt - 44 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Jack Suwinski - 57 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 79 PA, 0.442 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 52 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Nico Hoerner - 81 PA, 124 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 54 PA, 94 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 79 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 64 PA, 101 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 81 PA, 131 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Anthony Rendon - 60 PA, 101 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Alec Burleson - 61 PA, 107 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Alec Bohm - 80 PA, 144 Swings, 86.8 Cont%
Gio Urshela - 64 PA, 126 Swings, 86.5 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 85 PA, 175 Swings, 86.3 Cont%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Jeremy Pena - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
J.T. Realmuto - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Wander Franco - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Starling Marte - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Ezequiel Duran - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Conner Capel - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Josh Lowe - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Travis Jankowski - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (13 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Starling Marte - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Gleyber Torres - 9 Attempts (5 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Myles Straw - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Wander Franco - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Nico Hoerner - +8.6% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -9.1 Chase%
Joey Gallo - +14.6% Contact%, +6.9 mph exit velo, -4.9 Chase%
Leody Taveras - +8.0% Contact%, +7.0 mph exit velo, -9.6 Chase%
Brandon Marsh - +7.4% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -8.0 Chase%
Luis Rengifo - +10.4% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -5.3 Chase%
Seiya Suzuki - +4.1% Contact%, +6.9 mph exit velo, -7.2 Chase%
Javier Baez - +23.9% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -5.6 Chase%
Alex Call - +4.1% Contact%, +7.1 mph exit velo, -4.5 Chase%
Jarred Kelenic - +4.8% Contact%, +6.7 mph exit velo, -6.7 Chase%
Alex Bregman - 0.454 xwOBA, 10.4% Brl%, 87.1% Contact%, 16.3% Chase%, 3.3% K%
Cody Bellinger - 0.38 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 79.6% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Ian Happ - 0.429 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 79.4% Contact%, 17.6% Chase%, 20.0% K%
Jarred Kelenic - 0.504 xwOBA, 20.6% Brl%, 78.6% Contact%, 20.7% Chase%, 20.4% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.382 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 76.8% Contact%, 24.6% Chase%, 19.0% K%
Yandy Diaz - 0.436 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl%, 83.5% Contact%, 23.8% Chase%, 14.5% K%
Dansby Swanson - 38.0% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.958 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 35.2% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.946 Cold Rating
David Villar - 41.9% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.942 Cold Rating
Stuart Fairchild - 37.7% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.93 Cold Rating
Eloy Jimenez - 37.9% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating
Ji Hwan Bae - 31.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.889 Cold Rating
Jazz Chisholm - 46.5% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.875 Cold Rating
Nick Maton - 29.4% Whiff%, 79.4% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Triston Casas - 31.0% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating
Josh Lowe - 32.9% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Denzel Clarke (OAK): 2/3, 4R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 42FPts
Michael Helman (MIN): 3/5, 2R, 2HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 39FPts
Darell Hernaiz (OAK): 4/4, 4R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 38FPts
Brandon Dixon (SD): 2/4, 4R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 38FPts
Brian O'Keefe (SEA): 3/5, 3R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 37FPts
Cooper Hummel (SEA): 3/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 2SB, 36FPts
Taylor Jones (LAA): 4/5, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Kenedy Corona (HOU): 3/6, 3R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Kyle Garlick (MIN): 3/4, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 35FPts
Jared Oliva (LAA): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2SB, 34FPts
Nick Frasso (LAD): 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 8K, 0BB, 27FPts
Anthony Veneziano (KC): 5IP, 4H, 0ER, 7K, 2BB, 25FPts
Alan Rangel (ATL): 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 0BB, 22FPts
Robert Gasser (MIL): 5IP, 4H, 3ER, 8K, 1BB, 22FPts
Aaron Sanchez (MIN): 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 4K, 5BB, 19FPts
Levi Stoudt (CIN): 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 4K, 1BB, 18FPts
Bryce Miller (SEA): 5IP, 1H, 1ER, 5K, 1BB, 18FPts
Kent Emanuel (PIT): 4IP, 4H, 0ER, 4K, 1BB, 18FPts
Walker Powell (CHC): 3IP, 4H, 1ER, 5K, 0BB, 17FPts
Houston Roth (BAL): 4IP, 1H, 0ER, 5K, 1BB, 17FPts
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