MLB Daily Notes - April 26th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I got up before 6 today to run a couple of miles and start the day with some quiet. Working from home and having three kids can lead to me not having any form of silence for days at a time. That’s mostly my fault since I almost never just work in silence and even when the kids are in bed I go right into listening or watching something.
The Comfort Crisis book I’ve been reading talks about how having some quiet and some boredom is quite good for our brains. It also mentions that most of us have probably never actually experienced true silence. I don’t live in the city anymore, but I don’t live in the woods or on a farm either. Even running at 6:00am there’s cars and birds and whatnot.
I’ve read before about this completely soundproof box in Minneapolis you can go into and it like drives people nuts if they’re in there too long. I guess after a few minutes you start hearing your heart beat and other things from inside your own body that you’ve just been filtering out for your whole life. It’s Orfield Laboratories, I looked it up, more about that here.
But anyways I feel amazing now, crazy how good you feel after getting up and exercising first thing. Highly recommend, wish I could make myself do it every day but I don’t have that kind of willpower. And I guess somedays the trade-off just truly isn’t worth it.
I am killing some time here because the Statcast data isn’t available to me yet, which holds up the automated reports and a lot of other things.
I spent most of the day yesterday developing the Weekly Projections, which are actually just projections for each game of the next ten games. They aren’t quite ready for primetime yet because I’m having some trouble with the projected lineups. I want to just use two standard lineups for each team - one against righties and one against lefties.
So the way I started was just by having the script grab the most recent lineup for each team against each hand, but then I realized that Byron Buxton (and other regulars, I’m sure) didn’t make it into the projections because they happened to have gotten rest days the last time they didn’t play the last time their team faced a righty and a lefty. So I need to find a better way to get decent lineups to use. No team rolls out consistent lineups every time against either pitcher hand, and I’m not going to be able to project when guys go on or come off of the IL and stuff like that, so for hitters - this is a pretty tough endeavor.
Maybe I’ll change it to just the FanGraphs standard lineup against righties, and then for lefties just take the most recent lineup. This is probably more useful for pitchers anyways, and that will work much better since it’s much easier to predict who will be pitching in the next 10 days.
I’ll work on that this morning, and if I get it done I’ll give paid subscribers access. It will be nice to have for the waiver wire article that I will post today or tomorrow.
Just when you think a dude is all jacked up, things change. Triston McKenzie still hasn’t a great start, and it wasn’t all that great last night either (4 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 7 K, 2 BB), but we saw a spike in SwStr% (17.3%) and the command came back (33.3% Ball%).
So I don’t know, his season numbers are still really terrible but these last two starts have been much better, he doesn’t look like he’s pitching with half of an arm at this point, I guess (although I have not watched a single pitch from him this year, as per the usual arrangement).
Justin Verlander was inefficient and wild
4.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 7 K, 4 BB
But the 16.8% SwStr% and 54.7% Strike% were impressive and we haven’t seen Verlander get that many strikeouts very often over the last two seasons. Good news for him and you if you drafted and stashed it.
Cole Ragans had a complete game win:
5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 4 K, 3 BB
That’s right, a five inning complete game. He was not great, in fact this was probably his worst start (42.1% Strike%, 39.5% Ball%, 4:3 K:BB).
And now I’m out of time with a ton of other stuff to get into… more to come later, will get a waiver wire piece out and a slate preview before the end of the afternoon. Have a good time out there.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Triston McKenzie
2. Andrew Heaney
3. Justin Verlander
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Randy Vasquez
6. MacKenzie Gore
7. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
8. Simeon Woods Richardson
9. Luis Castillo
10. Nick Martinez
11. Freddy Peralta
12. Nestor Cortes
13. Cole Ragans
14. Alex Wood
15. Dakota Hudson
16. Mitch Keller
17. Javier Assad
18. Jose Berrios
19. Michael Soroka
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zack Wheeler (vs. CIN): 30.5 Points
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (vs. WSH): 28.5 Points
3. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. TEX): 21.9 Points
4. Justin Verlander (vs. CHC): 19.54 Points
5. Alex Wood (vs. NYY): 18.76 Points
6. Javier Assad (vs. HOU): 17.76 Points
7. Cole Ragans (vs. TOR): 17.65 Points
8. Andrew Heaney (vs. SEA): 16.5 Points
9. Nestor Cortes (vs. OAK): 14.75 Points
10. Simeon Woods Richardson (vs. CWS): 14.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 17 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 16 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Justin Verlander (HOU): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
4. Luis Castillo (SEA): 15 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
5. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 13 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
7. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 13 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
8. Nick Martinez (CIN): 11 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
9. Randy Vasquez (SD): 11 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
10. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 11 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 56.7 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
2. Justin Verlander (HOU): 54.7 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
3. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 54.4 Strike%, 25.3 Ball%
4. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 53.3 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
5. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 53.2 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
6. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 50.5 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%
7. Randy Vasquez (SD): 50.0 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
8. Mitch Keller (PIT): 48.1 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
9. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 48.0 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
10. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 46.8 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
11. Luis Castillo (SEA): 46.1 Strike%, 39.2 Ball%
12. Alex Wood (OAK): 44.9 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
13. Javier Assad (CHC): 44.7 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
14. Jose Berrios (TOR): 43.3 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%
15. Cole Ragans (KC): 42.1 Strike%, 39.5 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Andrew Heaney: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT
2. Jose Berrios: 67 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.47 POUT
3. Nestor Cortes: 94 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.48 POUT
4. Michael Soroka: 68 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.53 POUT
5. Javier Assad: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
6. Cole Ragans: 76 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.07 POUT
7. Nick Martinez: 89 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.24 POUT
8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 97 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.39 POUT
9. Luis Castillo: 102 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.67 POUT
10. MacKenzie Gore: 102 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.67 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 92.3
MacKenzie Gore's FF velo (58 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 97.1
Cole Ragans's FF velo (38 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 95.0
Michael Soroka's FF velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.2
Javier Assad's SI velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.8
Jose Berrios's SI velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 92.0
Javier Assad's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 86.7
Jose Berrios's FF velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 91.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Chase Anderson's FC usage (49.1%) up 18.1 points
Freddy Peralta's SL usage (41.8%) up 18.9 points
Luis Castillo's SL usage (33.3%) up 10.7 points
MacKenzie Gore's CH usage (14.7%) up 10.1 points
Mitch Keller's FF usage (50.0%) up 22.4 points
Randy Vasquez's CU usage (29.2%) up 18.1 points
Zack Wheeler's FC usage (14.6%) up 13.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Logan Webb Sweeper: +19.0%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -14.6%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Cole Ragans 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 89 TBF, 39.0% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 90 TBF, 37.1% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 101 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 70 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Ryan Pepiot - 88 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Michael King - 98 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 91 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 37.2% K%
Luis Gil - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Joe Ryan - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 90 TBF, 33.3% K%
Ryan Pepiot - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Jon Gray - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Jared Jones - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Zac Gallen - 71 TBF, 32.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 91 TBF, 31.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 34.6% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 96 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Jared Jones - 89 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 90 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Ryan Pepiot - 88 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 101 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 90 TBF, 73.3% GB%
Max Fried - 102 TBF, 67.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 110 TBF, 67.8% GB%
Luis Severino - 89 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Keaton Winn - 88 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Jose Soriano - 76 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 74 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 100 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 90 TBF, 58.6% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 101 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 89 TBF, 32.6 K%, 2.2 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Reid Detmers - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Sonny Gray - 64 TBF, 35.9 K%, 1.6 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 91 TBF, 31.9 K%, 5.5 BB%, 48.2% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 37.2 K%, 2.6 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 89 TBF, 32.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jack Flaherty - +7.1% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.8% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Joe Ryan - +3.6% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Luis Castillo - +3.1% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Jake Irvin - +3.3% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Tyler Glasnow - +2.1% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Nick Lodolo - +2.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +2.9% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Sonny Gray - +5.3% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Peter Lambert - +2.1% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +6.8% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
None
New Max Launch Velos
Max Kepler, Yesterday: 115.4 Previous High: 113.8
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 116.4mph - double
Max Kepler (MIN) - 115.4mph - field_out
William Contreras (MIL) - 114.4mph - home_run
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 113.3mph - double
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 112.2mph - single
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 112.0mph - single
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) - 112.0mph - home_run
Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 111.8mph - grounded_into_double_play
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.8mph - nan
Joey Bart (PIT) - 111.1mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Corey Seager - 77 PA, 0.261 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.117 Diff
Maikel Garcia - 77 PA, 0.224 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, 0.107 Diff
Colt Keith - 61 PA, 0.154 wOBA, 0.257 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 64 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, 0.093 Diff
Christopher Morel - 73 PA, 0.215 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Shea Langeliers - 63 PA, 0.245 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Enmanuel Valdez - 58 PA, 0.182 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Rowdy Tellez - 62 PA, 0.185 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff
Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 74 PA, 0.239 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 76 PA, 0.171 wOBA, 0.245 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Bottom 10
Daulton Varsho - 62 PA, 0.46 wOBA, 0.333 xwOBA, -0.127 Diff
Amed Rosario - 67 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, -0.122 Diff
Wilyer Abreu - 57 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.336 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 84 PA, 0.373 wOBA, 0.264 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Ryan Jeffers - 62 PA, 0.417 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Triston Casas - 59 PA, 0.426 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Brenton Doyle - 71 PA, 0.402 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Blake Perkins - 67 PA, 0.416 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
Elias Diaz - 71 PA, 0.372 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Byron Buxton - 57 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.192 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Tyler Stephenson - 54 PA, 34 BIP, 10 Brls, 29.4 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 84 PA, 59 BIP, 17 Brls, 28.8 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 47 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Michael Busch - 70 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Juan Soto - 87 PA, 58 BIP, 13 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 65 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 64 PA, 19 BIP, 4 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 79 PA, 57 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Riley Greene - 80 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Colton Cowser - 61 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Marcell Ozuna - 79 PA, 0.56 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 84 PA, 0.542 xwOBA
Ryan O'Hearn - 51 PA, 0.533 xwOBA
Salvador Perez - 70 PA, 0.507 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 87 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Tyler O'Neill - 47 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 48 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Tyler Stephenson - 54 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Jordan Westburg - 72 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Josh Naylor - 68 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Anthony Rendon - 63 PA, 108 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 70 PA, 108 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 70 PA, 112 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 84 PA, 159 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 79 PA, 149 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Jung Hoo Lee - 72 PA, 117 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Gabriel Moreno - 55 PA, 96 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 72 PA, 126 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Joey Ortiz - 46 PA, 84 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 70 PA, 114 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Michael Harris II - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Jo Adell - 6 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Caballero - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Johan Rojas - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Brice Turang - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Brenton Doyle - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Luis Rengifo - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Luis Garcia - 671277 - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Lane Thomas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 18 Attempts (15 steals)
Brice Turang - 12 Attempts (12 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Jose Caballero - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Lane Thomas - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
Jo Adell - 10 Attempts (6 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Jarren Duran - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jake Fraley - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Johan Rojas - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jose Siri - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Josh Naylor - 68 PA, 13.2 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Juan Soto - 87 PA, 14.9 K%, 22.4 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 79 PA, 13.9 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Mike Tauchman - 58 PA, 19.0 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Ryan O'Hearn - 51 PA, 7.8 K%, 19.5 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 70 PA, 8.6 K%, 19.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 84 PA, 16.7 K%, 28.8 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Marcell Ozuna - 101 PA, +0.143 xwOBA
Salvador Perez - 98 PA, +0.125 xwOBA
C.J. Abrams - 94 PA, +0.123 xwOBA
Jordan Westburg - 93 PA, +0.1 xwOBA
Jake Cronenworth - 107 PA, +0.098 xwOBA
Elly De La Cruz - 101 PA, +0.096 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 112 PA, +0.095 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 114 PA, +0.094 xwOBA
Gavin Sheets - 83 PA, +0.084 xwOBA
Josh Naylor - 98 PA, +0.067 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Riley Greene - 106 PA, +10.0 Brl%
Elly De La Cruz - 101 PA, +10.0 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 112 PA, +8.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 114 PA, +8.0 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 98 PA, +7.9 Brl%
Maikel Garcia - 109 PA, +7.7 Brl%
Jordan Westburg - 93 PA, +6.9 Brl%
Will Benson - 93 PA, +6.3 Brl%
Juan Soto - 121 PA, +5.4 Brl%
Jake Cronenworth - 107 PA, +5.3 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Elehuris Montero - 82 PA, +14.2 Cont%
Jack Suwinski - 91 PA, +13.3 Cont%
Anthony Volpe - 110 PA, +12.3 Cont%
Salvador Perez - 98 PA, +11.9 Cont%
Christopher Morel - 99 PA, +10.4 Cont%
Brice Turang - 86 PA, +10.0 Cont%
Oswaldo Cabrera - 85 PA, +9.9 Cont%
Anthony Rendon - 83 PA, +9.4 Cont%
Mike Trout - 108 PA, +9.2 Cont%
Brett Baty - 82 PA, +8.8 Cont%
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