MLB Daily Notes - April 27th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Good morning. It’s going to be hot out this weekend, which is phenomenal when you have kids. There are so many more things to do that are fun for everyone when you can go outside. Weekends are significantly harder work for them than week days. Typing numbers and code is easy - raising three kids is sometimes hard.
Expanded my yard this week too, took out a bunch of rocks where the previous owner of the house had flower and crap like that and planted brand new grass seed. AKA my father in law did it because he loves that stuff and was off work, but I did haul most of the literal ton of dirt two nights ago. I did all that manual labor on Thursday night and then didn’t even come into the Friday Daily Notes bragging about it. I waited a whole day to show off about how I actually did some real work with my body. What restraint.
Remember when I built that swingset summers ago? If you were reading the daily notes back then I had a daily swingset update with pictures and everything. I was so proud of myself, meanwhile all the other dads reading these notes were probably just like who does this chump think he is the slide is upside down!
The wood on that thing is all jacked up now and a bunch of the screws are loose… should I have stained it? Should I have screwed the screws in the whole way?
There’s a surprise name at the top of the SP ranks from last night, and he’s a Pirate so you know I’m going to talk about him. Quinn Priester had his first good Major League start of his career.
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 6 K, 1 BB, 51.2% Strike%, 16.7% SwStr%
Seriously, the first nine were all pretty bad:
The pitch mix from his two starts this year:
I might be getting way ahead of myself but I really like the 13.5% SwStr%, 35% Ball%, and 73% Ball%. That’s crazy. The sinker can’t keep up an 87% GB%, but it’s a sinker - so it should get a lot of ground balls, and if he can command it well enough to set up his slider and curveball he could be decent. I’m not off Priester yet, although I’m speaking more as a Pirate fan and less as a fantasy owner right now - but who knows, maybe in deep leagues you should add him now for very cheap just in case.
Corbin Burnes was the man of the day, as expected in that spot at home against the Orioles. He didn’t get the win though lol loser. The SwStr% came back up to 20.6%, but the command wasn’t fantastic with three walks and a 37.1% Ball%. I still think he’s a bit overrated, but I don’t think I could possibly keep him out of my top five if re-ranking.
And then Shota Imanaga is pitching his way into ace consideration. He’s been fan-freakin-tastic:
More wins than earnies, and a 9.3 K/BB. Is he better than Yamamoto!? Maybe he is, but of course he is five years older - so that makes the huge disparity in their contracts make a whole lot more sense.
I have basically simplified the way I view SPs just to this one scatter plot:
Jared Jones is ruining it though pushing the bounds out so far to where we can’t really see the other names, so let’s get rid of him for a second.
Your elite six:
Jared Jones
Tarik Skubal
Joe Ryan
Shota Imanaga
Zack Wheeler
Chris Sale
You almost could have put that pitching staff together in a January or February draft. Wheeler was a second or third rounder, but Skubal was initially 5th-6th, Ryan right in that range as well, Sale around 7-8, and then Imanaga very late and Jones completely free. I have two of these guys on my home league squad and would have three if that Oneil Cruz vs. Tarik Skubal coin flip would have gone my way.
After a brutal beatdown last week, I’m up 10-2 this week heading into the last two days. So it was a luck game last week and a skill game this week, unless I blow this 10-2 in which I will revert to blaming bad luck.
Luis Gil was hit with a couple swings of reality, giving up his first three barrels and first two homers of the year.
5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, 16.5% SwStr%, 47.4% Strike%, 36.1% Ball%
He’s actually posted ball rates below 36% in his last two starts, so that’s a bit encouraging, but he still has five walks in those two starts. His walk totals this year:
3, 4, 7, 3, 2
The fantasy points scored line:
I think that’s pretty much what it’s gonna look. Lots of CRAP but a big spike game once a month to keep you on the hook.
Every time I hear the word SPIKE I think of Mortal Kombat or one of those early fighting games. My parents never let me play fighting video games (I just played Madden and made myself the 99-in-everything QB), but I had these pagan cousins who had whatever game it was and I must have been traumatized seeing a guy fall onto some spikes one time or something because that memory is burned in there.
Gil is now at a 32% K%, a 17.6% BB%, and a 40% GB%. This was my pre-season projection:
So that’s looking directionally correct. High K%, high BB%, high FB%. That turns into what we just described - a very volatile pitcher with some excellent starts but plenty of really bad ones as well when those multi-run homers leave the yard.
Projections are great, I really enjoy them, but they do kind of ruin the surprise of baseball. I mean there’s still surprise and projections are wrong a lot, but they get you pretty far along in knowing what pitchers are going to do. Knowing the future better than the competition is very good in fantasy, but yeah I miss the mystery sometimes.
Zac Gallen was bad:
5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 3.1% SwStr%, 39.1% Strike%
That’s just two whiffs on 64 pitches. He was the top projected strikeout arm last night too so that sucks for you if you bet on him because of that. The season SwStr% is 11.3% now and his Strike% is well under water as well at 45%. We’ve seen slow starts from him before, so I would be trying to buy-low if possible, and if I had him I wouldn’t be benching him or even be too worried, but yeah I mean you like it better when your good pitchers pitch good.
Yesterday’s top hitters were Will Smith (33 points), Max Muncy (26), Brandon Marsh (26), and J.T. Realmuto (25). They all homered. The Dodgers really went to town in Toronto.
Joey Ortiz also hit his first homer of the season. Haven’t talked about him on the notes yet, so here’s his line:
.264/.355/.477, .732 OPS, 1 HR, 2.3% Brl%, 16% K%, 13% BB%, .280 xwOBA
Lots of contact but not much LOUDNESS, and a 55% GB%.
I suppose Alec Burleson is the replacement for Jordan Walker, however temporary that might be. His season:
.259/.310/.352, 1 HR, 7.0% Brl%, 19% K%, 7% BB%, .382 xwOBA, 40% GB%
I mean that’s pretty much what Walker was doing, certainly better than what Walker was doing. He’s been bad in his career (87 wRC+ vs. righties, 68 vs. lefties), but he’s a free deep-league bat that you could squeeze some homers and RBI out of in the short term.
Eloy Jimenez and the White Sox got their fourth win last night. Eloy’s season:
.204/.291/.388, 3 HR, 11.1% Brl%, 23.6% K%, 71% Cont%, .356 xwOBA
He’s available in some leagues. The surrounding lineup, lack of steals, and health concerns make him pretty tough to roster, but in deeper leagues he still deserves a roster spot. He should get that batting average up and he’ll hit some dingers.
My son is asking me to hide this monkey so he can find it, and he knows exactly where he wants me to hide it so I’ve gotta get to work. Peace be with you.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes
2. Shota Imanaga
3. Quinn Priester
4. Kutter Crawford
5. Anthony Maldonado
6. Chris Sale
7. Nathan Eovaldi
8. Luis Gil
9. Kyle Harrison
10. Patrick Sandoval
11. Ross Stripling
12. Joe Musgrove
13. Miles Mikolas
14. Aaron Nola
15. Bailey Ober
16. Seth Lugo
17. Jose Butto
18. Reese Olson
19. Chris Flexen
20. Emerson Hancock
21. Zach Eflin
22. Trevor Williams
23. Graham Ashcraft
24. Colin Rea
25. Logan Allen
26. Chris Bassitt
27. Gavin Stone
28. Zac Gallen
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Seth Lugo (vs. DET): 34.75 Points
2. Aaron Nola (vs. SD): 31.2 Points
3. Bailey Ober (vs. LAA): 28.89 Points
4. Chris Sale (vs. CLE): 27.95 Points
5. Shota Imanaga (vs. BOS): 26.64 Points
6. Reese Olson (vs. KC): 26.15 Points
7. Kyle Harrison (vs. PIT): 24.5 Points
8. Quinn Priester (vs. SF): 23.1 Points
9. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. CIN): 22.7 Points
10. Emerson Hancock (vs. ARI): 21.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 20 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
2. Luis Gil (NYY): 16 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Joe Musgrove (SD): 15 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
4. Jose Butto (NYM): 15 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
5. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
6. Quinn Priester (PIT): 14 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
7. Chris Sale (ATL): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 14 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
9. Kyle Harrison (SF): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
10. Seth Lugo (KC): 13 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Miles Mikolas (STL): 55.3 Strike%, 23.5 Ball%
2. Emerson Hancock (SEA): 53.0 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
3. Kyle Harrison (SF): 52.7 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
4. Chris Sale (ATL): 51.6 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
5. Quinn Priester (PIT): 51.2 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
6. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 51.1 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
7. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 50.6 Strike%, 21.2 Ball%
8. Aaron Nola (PHI): 50.0 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
9. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 49.5 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
10. Seth Lugo (KC): 49.5 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%
11. Bailey Ober (MIN): 49.0 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
12. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 48.5 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
13. Ross Stripling (OAK): 48.5 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
14. Luis Gil (NYY): 47.4 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
15. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 46.8 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zac Gallen: 64 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.27 POUT
2. Aaron Nola: 106 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.42 POUT
3. Gavin Stone: 94 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.48 POUT
4. Chris Sale: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
5. Bailey Ober: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
6. Emerson Hancock: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
7. Shota Imanaga: 88 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.63 POUT
8. Quinn Priester: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
9. Graham Ashcraft: 89 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.68 POUT
10. Kutter Crawford: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Corbin Burnes's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 89.9
Gavin Stone's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 89.3
Jose Butto's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.0
Miles Mikolas's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.6
Ross Stripling's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.8
Emerson Hancock's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 83.5
Zac Gallen's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 79.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's SI usage (32.1%) up 12.4 points
Bailey Ober's FC usage (22.9%) up 19.0 points
Chris Flexen's FC usage (38.9%) up 10.6 points
Chris Flexen's CU usage (15.3%) up 10.9 points
Chris Sale's SL usage (51.6%) up 12.5 points
Corbin Burnes's SL usage (28.9%) up 19.5 points
Emerson Hancock's FF usage (50.0%) up 13.5 points
Gavin Stone's SI usage (29.8%) up 11.1 points
Joe Musgrove's SL usage (27.8%) up 10.5 points
Jose Butto's SL usage (27.7%) up 10.8 points
Jose Butto's SI usage (22.3%) up 11.0 points
Kyle Harrison's CH usage (29.0%) up 12.5 points
Nathan Eovaldi's FF usage (47.4%) up 10.7 points
Patrick Sandoval's SL usage (39.4%) up 14.1 points
Ross Stripling's FF usage (42.3%) up 14.5 points
Trevor Williams's CH usage (35.0%) up 16.0 points
Zach Eflin's SI usage (43.3%) up 10.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Kutter Crawford Sweeper: -20.2%
Logan Webb Sweeper: +19.0%
Ross Stripling 4-Seam Fastball: +16.6%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: +15.2%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -14.6%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Cole Ragans 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Logan Allen Sweeper: -12.3%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 90 TBF, 37.1% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 101 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Ryan Pepiot - 88 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Chris Sale - 101 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Michael King - 98 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 96 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 87 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
####K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 37.2% K%
Joe Ryan - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 90 TBF, 33.3% K%
Jon Gray - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Ryan Pepiot - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 32.4% K%
Luis Gil - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Garrett Crochet - 77 TBF, 31.2% K%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 34.6% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 96 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 90 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Ryan Pepiot - 88 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 101 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
Nestor Cortes - 98 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 90 TBF, 24.4% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 88 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 83 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 90 TBF, 73.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 109 TBF, 68.5% GB%
Max Fried - 102 TBF, 67.9% GB%
Luis Severino - 89 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Keaton Winn - 88 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 100 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 100 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 98 TBF, 56.3% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 95 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 64 TBF, 34.4 K%, 3.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Reid Detmers - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Sonny Gray - 64 TBF, 35.9 K%, 1.6 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 66 TBF, 30.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 37.2 K%, 2.6 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jack Flaherty - +7.1% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Luis Castillo - +3.1% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Tyler Glasnow - +2.1% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +4.1% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Joe Ryan - +4.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Nick Lodolo - +2.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Jake Irvin - +3.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +2.9% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Sonny Gray - +5.3% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Jose Urena - +3.7% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Peter Lambert - +2.1% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +6.8% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Alec Bohm (PHI) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Blake Perkins (MIL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Danny Jansen (TOR) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Marcus Semien (TEX) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shea Langeliers (OAK) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Tomas Nido (NYM) 3 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Will Smith (LAD) 6 PA, 8 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Zach Neto (LAA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Curtis Mead, Yesterday: 112.4 Previous High: 108.3
Enmanuel Valdez, Yesterday: 109.9 Previous High: 108.6
Jesus Sanchez, Yesterday: 115.7 Previous High: 115.4
Hardest Hit Balls
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 115.7mph - field_out
Willson Contreras (STL) - 114.2mph - home_run
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 113.1mph - double
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 112.8mph - field_out
Curtis Mead (TB) - 112.4mph - single
Gary Sanchez (MIL) - 112.3mph - double
Corbin Carroll (ARI) - 111.5mph - field_out
Alec Bohm (PHI) - 110.8mph - double
Luis Garcia (WSH) - 110.6mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 110.5mph - single
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