MLB Daily Notes - April 2nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
If you play DraftKings DFS, join our league here. I will run daily $5 contests in there.
Ronel Blanco
A freakin’ no hitter from an SP5! Ronel Blank-o’d the Blue Jays, throwing a two-walk no hitter.
9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 20 Whiffs, 19% SwStr%, 50.5% Strike%
This dude is 30 years old, so he’s not some up-and-comer that you want to rush out and add. Plenty of mediocre pitchers have lucked into a no-hitter, so that point by itself doesn’t mean a whole lot for us, but you have to be pretty good to get 20 swings and misses in a Major League game.
He evenly mixed changeups, sliders, and four-seamers. That was a much higher changeup usage than he showed last year (9%), so there was a change here. Very impressive stuff.
We just have to remember that he was in the Majors a lot last year and was pretty mediocre despite a nice 16.9% SwStr%. His major problem was control with a walk rate above 12%, and he gave up some homers as well.
The way to solve a walk problem is typically not to throw more changeups, so I think this was probably just a night where had everything going for him, and we won’t see a ton more starts to love for fantasy moving forward.
His next start will be in Arlington against the Rangers, which isn’t an easy task but it’s not exactly an impossible matchup either, I don’t think.
Shota Imanaga
The other man to generate 20 whiffs was Shota Imanaga, who had stolen the show before Blanco got on the mound. It was a dream matchup at home against the Rockies in very pitcher-friendly conditions, but Imanaga took full advantage and then some.
6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 9 K, 0 BB
I’m honestly more impressed with a 9:0 K:BB than with a zero in the hit column. I don’t have Drew’s Stuff+ data flowing yet, but we’ll check on that when we get it, hopefully soon.
What we see here is 61% four-seam usage. I don’t love that, especially with the 8.9% SwStr%. The 59% Strike% was elite, of course, but it’s hard to put up a great strike rate without getting many whiffs as part of that. Called strikes are pretty random, they depend on multiple things outside of the pitcher’s control (the hitter not swinging, the umpire calling borderline pitches in the pitcher’s favor). So I don’t love that.
I’m also not crazy about a 26% splitter usage, but the pitch was practically unhittable yesterday as you see there with the 50% SwStr% (12 whiffs on 24 pitches, that’s insane). The sauce for him, I would guess, is the tunneling between the four-seamer and the splitter. He does have a deceptive deliver as a lefty with a release point way out toward first base, so that probably makes it tough to distinguish between the 92-93mph fastball and the 83mph splitter. If he can tunnel and command both pitches, he’ll be great, but I’m not close to saying this guy is an MLB ace right now.
He gets a really tough test next time out against the Dodgers, so we’ll learn more then.
Tanner Houck
Tanner Houck struck out ten Athletics on 83 pitches. He went for a sweet 19.3% SwStr% and a 63% Strike% on an 82% GB%. That’s an insane start.
Let’s compare the pitch mix from 2023 to yesterday:
Pitch : 2023 → Yesterday
Slider: 38% → 37%
Sinker: 29% → 36%
Splitter: 11% → 21%
Cutter: 11% → 6%
Four-Seam: 10% → 0%
He scrapped the four-seamer and reduced the cutter usage in favor of the splitter, and it worked out. I don’t think he can maintain a 53% Strike% with the splitter (the league average is 42%), but it’s good to see him throwing 80+ pitches already and trying different things. He hasn’t been a very useful fantasy pitcher in his career:
But the Red Sox gave him a long extension and committed to him in the rotation early on, so they see something they like!
The Athletics are now hitting .199/.270/.301 this year, that’s a .571 OPS.
Lowest Team OPS, 2024
SEA .537
NYM .551
CWS .554
STL .563
COL .565
OAK .571
MIA .586
TOR .598
PHI .616
MIN .620
They are one of four teams with less than three homers this year (MIN, CHC, MIL, and OAK).
Esteury Ruiz
The other big story of the day yesterday was that they demoted Esteury Ruiz, which made a lot of people confused and angry. This gives us a chance to remember the difference between fantasy baseball and real life baseball.
I’m not sure which version of WAR is considered the best, but you’d be hard-pressed to find one that likes what Ruiz did last year. On Baseball-Reference, he posted a -0.1 WAR last year. He was basically -1 on defense and +1 on offense. He hit .257/.310/.353 last year with just five homers, but all of us fantasy bro’s get hung up on those 68 steals.
Steals aren’t factored into the slash lines or OPS, which maybe they should be. A single and a steal is not as good as a double, but it is better than just a single. There are mathematical ways to quantify the value of a steal, but the bottom line is that it’s much more valuable in fantasy baseball than in real life baseball. It’s hard to be a bad outfielder and a single-digit homer guy and stick in the Major Leagues.
The fair criticism of the Athletics is about who they are replacing him with. It’s not like he was blocking some good prospect, and who knows - this could be a move that has very little to do with baseball itself. I don’t know, but I do think it’s clear that our view of the real life game gets clouded some time by the fantasy game.
Joe Boyle
The man did not disappoint, walking four batters in 2.2 brutal innings.
2.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 4 K, 4 BB
The defense did not do him any favors, but he was bad. The guy just can’t command the ball. He’s not a big league pitcher, and I don’t think it’s too early to say that. Yesterday he had a 42% Ball%, which is putrid.
Maybe I’m about to be a little bit too harsh and closed-minded, but there are certain times in life when someone says something that should change your approach to that person altogether. There are a lot of people who hyped up Joe Boyle this year, and to me, if you saw that from someone, you should probably stop listening to them about stuff. Again, maybe that’s harsh, but this is fantasy baseball and it’s not that serious. But if there’s someone out there that really thinks a guy can go from a 16% BB% in the minors to being an effective Major League pitcher in one off-season, I don’t know man I just think they’re not understanding the numbers.
There are plenty of applications of this kind of rule in real life, which I have been using a lot since 2020. If I see someone saying and believing something that is just so ridiculous and stupid, I’m going to stop listening to them about anything. It doesn’t mean I’m going to be mean to them or speak ill of them to other people, I’m just going to stop taking that person seriously.
So if you tell me that Joe Boyle is good in one sentence, and then that the earth is round in the next, I just might just go join The Flat Earth Society.
Bowden Francis got slapped around, giving up 10 hits to the Astros, but he did post a nice 54.5% Strike% and a 22.8%, so there’s some silver lining there. You might not want to give up on him quite yet if you have him.
Remember that all of this data is available daily here.
We are turning over a lot of rotations today. Tyler Glasnow will make his third start, and plenty of other SP1’s will make their second. You can check out my favorite data points on today’s probable pitchers here.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ronel Blanco (vs. TOR): 37.05 Points
2. Tanner Houck (vs. OAK): 35.7 Points
3. Shota Imanaga (vs. COL): 34.3 Points
4. Sean Manaea (vs. DET): 27.7 Points
5. Charlie Morton (vs. CWS): 25.76 Points
6. Dane Dunning (vs. TB): 22.04 Points
7. Kyle Muller (vs. BOS): 20.19 Points
8. Kyle Gibson (vs. SD): 20.15 Points
9. James Paxton (vs. SF): 19.85 Points
10. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. CIN): 19.65 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 20 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
2. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 20 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
3. Dane Dunning (TEX): 18 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
4. Tanner Houck (BOS): 16 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
5. Keaton Winn (SF): 14 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
6. Chase Silseth (LAA): 14 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
7. Dean Kremer (BAL): 14 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
8. Bowden Francis (TOR): 14 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
9. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
10. Joe Boyle (OAK): 13 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tanner Houck (BOS): 62.7 Strike%, 24.1 Ball%
2. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 57.6 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
3. Bowden Francis (TOR): 54.4 Strike%, 22.8 Ball%
4. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 52.9 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
5. Keaton Winn (SF): 52.8 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
6. Chase Silseth (LAA): 52.6 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
7. Matt Waldron (SD): 51.6 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
8. Luis Gil (NYY): 51.2 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
9. Sean Manaea (NYM): 51.1 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
10. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 50.5 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
11. Kyle Muller (OAK): 49.3 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
12. Charlie Morton (ATL): 48.4 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
13. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 46.7 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
14. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 46.5 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
15. Dean Kremer (BAL): 45.9 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 91.7
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (31 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 84.5
Emerson Hancock's CH velo (21 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 87.0
Keaton Winn's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 88.2
Cristopher Sanchez's SI velo (38 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 94.3
MacKenzie Gore's FF velo (49 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 97.0
Ryne Nelson's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.2
Michael Wacha's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 75.7
Luke Weaver's FC velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.8
Marco Gonzales's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 81.4
James Paxton's FF velo (68 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.7
Ryan Pepiot's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.3
James Paxton's FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.2
Kyle Muller's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.4
Charlie Morton's FF velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 93.2
MacKenzie Gore's CH velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 84.7
Triston McKenzie's FF velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.5
Dean Kremer's FC velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 86.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Dane Dunning's SI usage (44.1%) up 10.8 points
Emerson Hancock's CH usage (25.9%) up 11.7 points
James Paxton's FF usage (70.1%) up 13.2 points
Keaton Winn's SL usage (22.5%) up 19.0 points
Luke Weaver's FC usage (37.3%) up 15.4 points
MacKenzie Gore's CH usage (16.8%) up 13.9 points
Marco Gonzales's FC usage (31.2%) up 22.4 points
Matt Waldron's KN usage (49.4%) up 17.4 points
Reese Olson's CH usage (28.8%) up 13.8 points
Ronel Blanco's CH usage (34.3%) up 25.3 points
Sean Manaea's FC usage (14.8%) up 14.7 points
Triston McKenzie's SL usage (46.2%) up 26.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 26 TBF, 38.8% CSW%
Bowden Francis - 26 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 26 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 29 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 26 TBF, 30.8% CSW%
Michael King - 38 TBF, 30.7% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 26 TBF, 30.6% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 43 TBF, 29.9% CSW%
Kyle Muller - 27 TBF, 29.5% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 29.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 26 TBF, 34.6% K%
Logan Gilbert - 26 TBF, 30.8% K%
Kyle Muller - 27 TBF, 29.6% K%
Michael King - 38 TBF, 28.9% K%
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 27.8% K%
Bowden Francis - 26 TBF, 26.9% K%
Dane Dunning - 26 TBF, 26.9% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 26 TBF, 26.9% K%
Ronel Blanco - 29 TBF, 24.1% K%
Trevor Rogers - 26 TBF, 23.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 26 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 26 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Kyle Muller - 27 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Bowden Francis - 26 TBF, 23.1% K-BB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 26 TBF, 23.1% K-BB%
Luis Severino - 27 TBF, 22.2% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 19.4% K-BB%
Ronel Blanco - 29 TBF, 17.2% K-BB%
Dane Dunning - 26 TBF, 11.5% K-BB%
Trevor Rogers - 26 TBF, 7.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 26 TBF, 78.6% GB%
Ronel Blanco - 29 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Kyle Muller - 27 TBF, 47.1% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 26 TBF, 47.1% GB%
Trevor Rogers - 26 TBF, 43.8% GB%
Luis Severino - 27 TBF, 42.9% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 26 TBF, 41.2% GB%
Michael King - 38 TBF, 41.2% GB%
Bowden Francis - 26 TBF, 38.9% GB%
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 38.1% GB%
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get absolutely everything that I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.