MLB Daily Notes - April 30th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
So jury duty was canceled yesterday, but since I threw away the official summons I didn’t know that I was supposed to call the night before to see if the trial was still going down. If you’re interested in the full story and my attempt to make it as entertaining as possible, check out yesterday’s podcast where I went in full detail and ended up blaming several other people besides myself.
Also, welcome to the new free subscribers from Reddit. I forgot how active that /r/fantasybaseball subreddit is. I posted the free article from yesterday and it brought in a bunch of new readers, so that’s exciting. You all can check out the about page for more information about this SubStack, if you haven’t yet.
I want to give you all a fair warning as well. I am completely independent here, and there are a few priorities I have ahead of making this SubStack as successful as possible.
To honor God and my faith in Him with everything I do
I typically suck at this, but I’m working on it
To entertain myself
That means that you’ll see a lot of stuff that might not be what you’re interested in - and a few of you might even be offended by my general worldview. It’s not that bad though, I don’t think. I mean I could make it a lot worse (aka better), but I don’t want to be too selfish here. Most of my non-baseball venting will happen on the podcast, I’ve really enjoyed that as my outlet.
So I’m behind on my real-world job stuff, so I’m writing these notes between meetings and important work, so we’re a bit late today. But I’d rather be late and put out a nice post than just rip out the automated report today without any special analysis. Because a lot is happening in baseball, so let’s get to it.
Two of my personal favorite pitchers in the league really showed out yesterday. A reminder about the Yesterdays SP Data sheet, that is free for all. It updates every morning with the datapoints I like most about each SP that pitched yesterday. I pull most of the numbers I cite in these write-ups right from there.
Nick Lodolo
7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 11 K, 2 BB, 22.2% SwStr%, 57.6% Strike%, 31.3% Ball%
Given that ridiculousness, I am going to query the 2024 Individual Start Data table and see how many times a pitcher has gone >20% SwStr% and <32% Ball% this year. The answer is 21:
There are some interesting exceptions here (Feltner, Houck, Weathers, Pepiot), but you will almost never find bad pitchers showing up in this kind of query. Meaning you typically can’t luck into a start like this. And it’s not a surprise, Lodolo is awesome. Here’s the updated arsenal stats for him (from my main MLB Tableau Dashboard that is available to paid subscribers):
Three fantastic pitches and a GB% that we like to see in Cincinnati. While he’s healthy, I would have Lodolo as an easy top 25 SP, and probably firmly in the top 20 right now. However, the injury history has to still concern you. So if you’re really thin at SP, like many of you probably are, it might not be the worst idea to see if you can flip Lodolo for a couple of lesser arms to stabilize your rotation a bit.
Bryce Miller
7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, 17.5 SwStr%, 53.6% Strike%, 34% Ball%
Miller hasn’t been quite as dominant as I thought he might be overall this year, but last night was extremely impressive. Here are the numbers on the season:
I am underwhelmed by the 37% Ball% and 48% Strike% and the five homers allowed, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t gotten the job done with his 2.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 29.1% K%, and 9.0% BB%. That’s excellent, of course. Miller was one of my favorite SPs to draft this year and it’s looking like I was right about him… at least I got one!
Garrett Crochet
5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 16.9% SwStr%, 31.2% Ball%
A bounce-back from Crochet that will keep him on your fantasy team for at least a few more weeks. His numbers on the season are stellar, so he’s a guy you just start for now. He will probably end up breaking down in the middle of the season sometimes, but right now the numbers all point to him being a must-start guy (2.66 SIERA, 32.9% K-BB%).
That’s the third-best K-BB% in the league this year among SPs with 5+ starts. Crazy.
Jones 28%
Yamamoto 26.7%
Crochet 26.6%
Ryan 25.9%
Flaherty 25.8%
Peralta 25.4%
Kirby 25.4%
Skubal 25.4%
Glasnow 24.5%
R Suarez 24.3%
Max Fried
He’s back. He’s now ripped off 15 shutout innings with 13 strikeouts and two walks in his last two starts (against the Marlins and Mariners, two pretty good matchups, mind you). He finally posted a nice SwStr% (15%) last night as well, although he once again put up a less than desirable Ball% at 41%. What are we to say about Fried though? You start him every time.
Cristopher Sanchez
He was bad…
5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 K, 2 BB, 1.3% SwStr%
He’s been moving in the wrong direction since his big start against the Rockies a few weeks ago.
An 11.6% SwStr% is not very good, and the ball rate is at league average. So there’s not much to love here, Sanchez does seem like he’s going to have the breakout season that many expected.
On the hitting side, I noticed that Mookie Betts hasn’t struck out since April 15th. That’s wild. Since then:
55 PA, .426/.509/.617, 0 HR, 5 SB, 14.5% BB%
So the power has gone away, but he’s getting on base more than half the time and scoring a ton of runs because of it (he now leads the league with 29 runs scored).
He has been one of the best first-round picks so far, and that reminds us about Corbin Carroll’s struggles. He was moved down to the bottom of the lineup last night. His season line:
126 PA, .191/.294/.236, .530 OPS, 17.5% K%, 11.9% BB%, 1 HR, 8 SB
The steals are fine, and he’s not striking out much. The batting average will improve soon given that K% and the .230 BABIP he has on the season. But he’s just not hitting the ball well
25% hard hit%, .286 xwOBA, 5.7% Brl%
People are talking about his shoulder injury from last summer or something. I looked that up and found a Mike Kurland tweet here. He puts the pivot point at July 6th. So here are my splits stats centered around that day:
Before: .927 OPS, 9.5% Brl%, 20% K%, 44% Hard%, .327 xwOBA
After…: .721 OPS, 5.6% Brl%, 19% K%, 34% Hard%, .309 xwOBA
We have the very important correlation does not prove causation point to make here. I have trouble believing that an injury that happened that long ago with a full offseason between then and now would still be a difference-maker, but you can see the difference in hard hit rate there and it would make some sense that a weak shoulder would immediately lower your hard hit rate. I’m not really buying it personally, but maybe. I’d view Carroll as a buy-low.
Something is beckoning me to talk about Brandon Nimmo. You might remember his power breakout last year
Year: Brl% | Homers
2016: 1.9% | 1
2017: 6.7% | 5
2018: 6.5% | 17
2019: 6.8% | 8
2020: 7.7% | 8
2021: 4.0% | 8
2022: 7.0% | 16
2023: 9.5% | 24
2024: 12.0% | 3
There was an approach change last year, I think, and it has maintained. He’s posted a high 28% FB% and a good 48% Hard Hit%, and that’s turned into that really high barrel rate. He also continues to walk a ton (16.7%), so he’s a pretty great OBP/points league guy since we can probably count on 20+ homers again as long as he’s healthy. The .208 batting average is hurting you right now, but the .250 BABIP and .416 xwOBA show that he’s been unlucky. His xBA sits at .290, making him the unluckiest batting average hitter in the whole freakin’ league - how about that! I didn’t even know that before I started this section.
xBA - BA Leaders, 80+ PA
Brandon Nimmo .091
Colt Keith .085
Shea Langeliers .081
Lawrence Butler .076
Brandon Drury .074
Vinnie Pasquantino .061
Marcus Semien .059
Fernando Tatis Jr. .058
Jonathan India .058
MJ Melendez .058
Full expected vs. actual data here.
And it’s 10:45 now so I have to wrap this up. We will be back, of course, tomorrow with more of the daily notes.
For now, I have to focus on running a sub-6:50 mile today, because Producer Lee ran a 6:51 daddy yesterday and I can’t stand the idea that I’m not the fastest person in my friend group.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo
2. Max Fried
3. Bryce Miller
4. Garrett Crochet
5. Bailey Falter
6. Ryan Pepiot
7. Luis Severino
8. Jonathan Bowlan
9. Bryse Wilson
10. Joe Ryan
11. Clarke Schmidt
12. Trevor Rogers
13. Yariel Rodriguez
14. James Paxton
15. Jake Irvin
16. Matt Waldron
17. Grayson Rodriguez
18. Jameson Taillon
19. Joe Boyle
20. Griffin Canning
21. Tommy Henry
22. Cristopher Sanchez
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo (vs. SD): 37.95 Points
2. Bryce Miller (vs. ATL): 31.95 Points
3. Ryan Pepiot (vs. MIL): 30.3 Points
4. Max Fried (vs. SEA): 26.3 Points
5. Luis Severino (vs. CHC): 24.2 Points
6. Bryse Wilson (vs. TB): 19.9 Points
7. Garrett Crochet (vs. MIN): 19.45 Points
8. Joe Boyle (vs. PIT): 18.25 Points
9. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. NYY): 17.96 Points
10. Clarke Schmidt (vs. BAL): 17.16 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 22 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
2. Bryce Miller (SEA): 17 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Max Fried (ATL): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
4. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 13 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
5. Luis Severino (NYM): 13 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
6. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 11 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
7. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 11 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
8. Bailey Falter (PIT): 11 Whiffs (65 Pitches)
9. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. Jonathan Bowlan (KC): 10 Whiffs (68 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 57.6 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
2. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 55.8 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
3. Bryce Miller (SEA): 53.6 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
4. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 50.6 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
5. Bailey Falter (PIT): 49.2 Strike%, 26.2 Ball%
6. Luis Severino (NYM): 48.5 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
7. Max Fried (ATL): 48.0 Strike%, 41.0 Ball%
8. Jake Irvin (WSH): 47.6 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
9. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 47.3 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
10. Jonathan Bowlan (KC): 47.1 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
11. Joe Ryan (MIN): 46.5 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
12. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 45.7 Strike%, 39.1 Ball%
13. Matt Waldron (SD): 45.4 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
14. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 43.8 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
15. Yariel Rodriguez (TOR): 42.7 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jameson Taillon: 78 Pitches, 22 Outs, 3.55 POUT
2. Luis Severino: 101 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.21 POUT
3. Bailey Falter: 65 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.33 POUT
4. Bryce Miller: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
5. Jake Irvin: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
6. Nick Lodolo: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
7. Joe Ryan: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
8. Ryan Pepiot: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
9. Garrett Crochet: 77 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.13 POUT
10. Bryse Wilson: 91 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.35 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 5.1mph to 87.6
Joe Ryan's FS velo (26 pitches) UP 4.1mph to 88.7
Joe Ryan's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 87.4
Joe Ryan's ST velo (14 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 82.4
Griffin Canning's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 88.1
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Clarke Schmidt's FC usage (39.1%) up 10.1 points
Cristopher Sanchez's SI usage (64.0%) up 17.0 points
Garrett Crochet's CH usage (23.4%) up 17.0 points
Jake Irvin's FC usage (19.0%) up 16.4 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (26.7%) up 21.2 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (13.9%) up 11.7 points
Matt Waldron's ST usage (21.6%) up 12.2 points
Max Fried's FF usage (48.0%) up 12.6 points
Tommy Henry's SI usage (18.1%) up 12.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Kutter Crawford Sweeper: -20.2%
Logan Webb Sweeper: +19.0%
Ross Stripling 4-Seam Fastball: +16.6%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +16.1%
Tanner Houck Split-Finger: +15.7%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: +15.2%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -15.1%
Hunter Greene Slider: -14.9%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +14.6%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Cole Ragans 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Marcus Stroman Slider: +13.7%
Cal Quantrill Split-Finger: +12.7%
Logan Allen Sweeper: -12.3%
Brady Singer Sinker: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 84 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 89 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 81 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Michael King - 97 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 110 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Ryan Pepiot - 86 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 37.3% K%
Sonny Gray - 89 TBF, 36.0% K%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
George Kirby - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Dane Dunning - 82 TBF, 30.5% K%
Joe Ryan - 95 TBF, 30.5% K%
Bryce Miller - 87 TBF, 29.9% K%
Jared Jones - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
Hunter Greene - 98 TBF, 29.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
George Kirby - 87 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Jared Jones - 84 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Ranger Suarez - 103 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 96 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 98 TBF, 22.4% K-BB%
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