It is our first Monday of the year; always a busy day of the week as we catch up from the weekend.
I have added a ton of stuff below. I was going to wait a couple of weeks to show some of the sections like barrel leaders, contact rate leaders, K-BB leaders, etc. since you shouldn’t pay much attention at all to that stuff when we’re talking about 3-4 games of data, but I figured why not just show it - so that’s all below.
We have a couple of brand-spankin’ new additions to the notes as well:
You’ll get to all of that eventually if you keep scrolling, but for now, it’s soap box time.
Quick update on the league-wide stats:
Everybody creamed their chicken after Opening Day about the 91% SB success rate, but that has fallen every day since, and now we’re down to 83%. My guess is that it settled in around 77%-80% since it is logical to assume it would go up with the new rules, but yeah 90% was never going to be a real thing.
The Twins, Tigers, Royals, and Marlins have yet to attempt a steal (in the case of the last three there that’s probably because they all have sub-.300 OBPs currently). The teams running most aggressively are the Orioles (26% attempt rate), Mariners (25%), Yankees (22%), and Diamondbacks (21%). That’s funny because the Diamondbacks did not attempt a steal until yesterday when they swiped four bases on four attempts.
Last April, 12.8% of fly balls went for homers (4,026 BIP). So far this season, it’s 13.3% (624 BIP). I’m not sure when a stat like that would stabilize, but we’ll keep an eye on it, because stuff like this with the make of the baseball can typically be interpreted pretty early on. Jason Collette has been keeping an eye on the trends, I recommend you give him a follow if you haven’t already.
The attention-grabbing SP of the day on Sunday was probably Jeffrey Springs, but that’s a bit of old news. If you don’t know, now you know! He’s probably a legitimate fantasy ace and the sharps (even me, yours truly, who everybody loves so) were drafting him aggressively with his mispriced ADP.
The name that really stands out is Jhony Brito. Certainly, he was not a part of the Yankees’ rotation plans in February, but with all of the disasters they’ve had so far they had him starting their third game. And hey, he pitched great:
The changeup-first pitcher tends to be quite volatile, but he started the year on the positive side of that volatility and a 39% SwStr% on 28 changeups is just ludicrous.
The four-seamer did not perform well in 22 tries, just getting the one whiff and being hit in the air when it was hit, but hey the sinker looked decently effective as well so he has two options there on what to back up the changeup with.
Over the last two seasons in the minor leagues, Brito has just a 22.4% K%, but a strong 5.9% BB%. Far from dominant there, but the first start of the year should at least have us pay attention to what he does next time.
Seth Lugo should be added in more leagues, he threw seven innings yesterday with seven punchies, no walks, and just one run allowed. It came with an uninspiring 9.7% SwStr%, but overall - good stuff there but a pitcher that has always been quite good - but just has never gotten serious run in a rotation.
Noah Syndergaard earned 13 whiff daddies. He was still sinker-first, which makes me doubt he’ll actually have a good SwStr% this year, but it worked out yesterday:
Great performance on the changeup, and good to see him utilizing both fastball variations - even though the velocity is still gone. Remember how hard that dude threw early on in his career? He was the league’s main attraction for a minute there.
Chris Bassitt threw everything at the wall and nothing stuck. He scored -17 DraftKings points and didn’t strike out any of the 19 batters he faced.
Allowing a barrel on five different pitches might be a new record. His velocity is gonezo, and that was evident several weeks ago. I would never say panic after one start, but I say a lot of things I would never say - panic!
Trout was the JA hitter king of the day, which he so often is.
Don’t look now but Oneil Cruz has struck out just once in 13 PAs, although the 68% Contact% is still bad, so don’t get too excited.
Here is a list of hitters with a contact rate above 90% and at least a 10% Brl/PA
Vlad
Chapman (eyes emoji)
Verdugo (eyes emoji)
Steer (eyes emoji)
Franco (eyes emoji)
Grandal (eyes emoji)
Alright here goes our first full-length automated report of the year, what a great time to be alive! Man I love baseball.
Everything is above the paywall today just to let the leeches really get a feel for what they’ll be missing soon. Sorry for calling you a leech, I don’t even know you, man - but give me $7, c’mon.
1. Jhony Brito (NYY): 16 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
2. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 13 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
3. Luis Garcia (HOU): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Noah Syndergaard (LAD): 13 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
5. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
6. Mike Clevinger (CWS): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Brad Keller (KC): 12 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
9. Ross Stripling (SF): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Joey Wentz (DET): 11 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
1. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 16.0 SwStr%, 40.7 CSW%
2. Tanner Houck (BOS): 14.3 SwStr%, 40.0 CSW%
3. Martin Perez (TEX): 11.2 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
4. Kodai Senga (NYM): 11.4 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
5. Seth Lugo (SD): 9.7 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
6. Jhony Brito (NYY): 21.1 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
7. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 14.0 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
8. Noah Syndergaard (LAD): 16.7 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
9. Bailey Falter (PHI): 12.5 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
10. Brad Keller (KC): 13.6 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
1. Jeffrey Springs - 6.0 IP - 84.75 JA Points
2. Noah Syndergaard - 6.0 IP - 59.75 JA Points
3. Jhony Brito - 5.0 IP - 51.0 JA Points
4. Luis Garcia - 6.0 IP - 47.5 JA Points
5. Mike Clevinger - 5.0 IP - 44.25 JA Points
6. Seth Lugo - 7.0 IP - 44.0 JA Points
7. Martin Perez - 5.67 IP - 43.5 JA Points
8. Graham Ashcraft - 7.0 IP - 42.25 JA Points
9. Tanner Houck - 5.0 IP - 41.75 JA Points
10. Kodai Senga - 5.33 IP - 40.0 JA Points
1. Blake Snell (SD) - 1 GS - 84.81 JA Points
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 1 GS - 83.25 JA Points
3. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 1 GS - 68.65 JA Points
4. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 1 GS - 63.33 JA Points
5. Logan Webb (SF) - 1 GS - 62.29 JA Points
6. Pablo Lopez (MIN) - 1 GS - 60.7 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 1 GS - 60.0 JA Points
8. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 1 GS - 59.8 JA Points
9. Justin Steele (CHC) - 1 GS - 57.71 JA Points
10. Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 1 GS - 55.62 JA Points
Noah Syndergaard's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 5.0mph to 89.8
Zach Davies's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 4.2mph to 78.9
Marco Gonzales's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 79.1
Ross Stripling's CH velo (25 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 84.9
Jordan Montgomery's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 84.3
Graham Ashcraft's SL velo (39 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 87.7
Joey Wentz's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.8
MacKenzie Gore's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.5
Brad Keller's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.4
Tanner Houck's FF velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.7
Tanner Houck's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.9
Luis Garcia's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 75.6
Noah Syndergaard's CH velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.0
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.5
Martin Perez's SI velo (42 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.0
Chris Bassitt's SI velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.1
Tyler Anderson's FC velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.0
Tyler Anderson's CH velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 77.3
Ken Waldichuk's FF velo (61 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 92.2
Ken Waldichuk's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 73.2
Martin Perez's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 87.6
Tyler Anderson's FF velo (32 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 88.5
Eric Lauer's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 75.1
Eric Lauer's FF velo (44 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 90.1
Eric Lauer's FC velo (26 pitches) DOWN -4.4mph to 85.4
Seth Lugo's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -4.9mph to 84.0
Bailey Falter's FF usage (44.4%) up 11.9 points
Bailey Falter's CU usage (40.3%) up 22.7 points
Chris Bassitt's CH usage (18.5%) up 12.4 points
Graham Ashcraft's SL usage (41.1%) up 13.8 points
Jameson Taillon's FC usage (37.3%) up 26.3 points
Jeffrey Springs's FF usage (52.1%) up 11.7 points
Luis Garcia's FC usage (41.4%) up 20.4 points
Mike Clevinger's FF usage (59.2%) up 22.5 points
Mike Clevinger's SL usage (33.7%) up 13.1 points
Trevor Rogers's SI usage (22.6%) up 22.4 points
Vince Velasquez's CU usage (29.1%) up 12.3 points
Zach Davies's FC usage (19.5%) up 13.6 points
Clayton Kershaw - 21 TBF, 44.7% CSW%
Logan Webb - 24 TBF, 41.3% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 24 TBF, 39.4% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 22 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Cristian Javier - 23 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 23 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 22 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Justin Steele - 21 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Marcus Stroman - 23 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Martin Perez - 26 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 22 TBF, 50.0% K%
Logan Webb - 24 TBF, 50.0% K%
Dylan Cease - 22 TBF, 45.5% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 23 TBF, 43.5% K%
Blake Snell - 21 TBF, 42.9% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 21 TBF, 42.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 23 TBF, 39.1% K%
Pablo Lopez - 21 TBF, 38.1% K%
Justin Steele - 21 TBF, 38.1% K%
Kodai Senga - 21 TBF, 38.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 22 TBF, 45.5% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 21 TBF, 42.9% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 24 TBF, 41.7% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 22 TBF, 40.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 21 TBF, 38.1% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 21 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Brandon Woodruff - 22 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 23 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 24 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Miles Mikolas - 21 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Marcus Stroman - 23 TBF, 75.0% GB%
Justin Steele - 21 TBF, 75.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 22 TBF, 70.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 23 TBF, 68.8% GB%
David Peterson - 22 TBF, 68.8% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 23 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 23 TBF, 64.7% GB%
Tylor Megill - 23 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Aaron Civale - 23 TBF, 63.2% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 24 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Aaron Civale - 83 TBF, 27.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 53.4% GB%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 32.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 91 TBF, 33.0 K%, 4.4 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 84 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Emmanuel Clase - 43 TBF, 30.2 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 90 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.2 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 31.3 K%, 1.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 63.9% GB%
Brendan Donovan (STL) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Corey Seager (TEX) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Joey Gallo (MIN) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Luis Robert (CWS) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Matt Chapman (TOR) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Michael A. Taylor (MIN) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nolan Gorman (STL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ryan McMahon (COL) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Willson Contreras (STL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Austin Meadows, Yesterday: 108.8 Previous High: 108.2
Blake Sabol, Yesterday: 105.1 Previous High: 98.9
Brice Turang, Yesterday: 98.7 Previous High: 95.1
Corey Seager, Yesterday: 112.3 Previous High: 112.2
David Hensley, Yesterday: 107.0 Previous High: 104.9
J.P. Crawford, Yesterday: 109.4 Previous High: 109.3
Jake Rogers, Yesterday: 98.5 Previous High: 0.0
Michael Conforto, Yesterday: 108.1 Previous High: 88.6
Robbie Grossman, Yesterday: 109.0 Previous High: 108.3
1. Mike Trout - 5.0 PA - 84.0 JA Points
2. Joey Gallo - 5.0 PA - 84.0 JA Points
3. Tommy Pham - 5.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
4. Adam Frazier - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
5. Justin Turner - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
6. Nolan Gorman - 4.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
8. Kyle Tucker - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
9. Brice Turang - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
10. Luis Robert - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
1. Mike Trout (LAA) - 14.0 PA - 431.43 JA Points
2. C.J. Cron (COL) - 17.0 PA - 374.12 JA Points
3. Miguel Vargas (LAD) - 13.0 PA - 347.69 JA Points
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 15.0 PA - 336.0 JA Points
5. Adam Duvall (BOS) - 15.0 PA - 288.0 JA Points
6. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 18.0 PA - 286.67 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 14.0 PA - 271.43 JA Points
8. Matt Olson (ATL) - 13.0 PA - 264.62 JA Points
9. Nolan Gorman (STL) - 12.0 PA - 260.0 JA Points
10. Jake Fraley (CIN) - 11.0 PA - 250.91 JA Points
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 117.8mph - home_run
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 115.9mph - foul
Luis Robert (CWS) - 113.4mph - double
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) - 112.6mph - double
Corey Seager (TEX) - 112.3mph - single
Mike Trout (LAA) - 111.9mph - double
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 111.8mph - field_out
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 111.4mph - home_run
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 111.4mph - double
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 110.8mph - home_run
Matt Olson - 13 PA, 6 BIP, 4 Brls, 66.7 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 11 PA, 6 BIP, 3 Brls, 50.0 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 15 PA, 11 BIP, 5 Brls, 45.5 Brl%
C.J. Cron - 17 PA, 13 BIP, 5 Brls, 38.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 13 PA, 6 BIP, 2 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 12 PA, 6 BIP, 2 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Michael A. Taylor - 11 PA, 6 BIP, 2 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Max Muncy - 14 PA, 6 BIP, 2 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Brendan Donovan - 15 PA, 13 BIP, 4 Brls, 30.8 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 15 PA, 10 BIP, 3 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 14 PA, 0.704 xwOBA
C.J. Cron - 17 PA, 0.697 xwOBA
Tommy Pham - 10 PA, 0.667 xwOBA
Miguel Vargas - 13 PA, 0.658 xwOBA
Adam Duvall - 15 PA, 0.648 xwOBA
Joey Gallo - 11 PA, 0.606 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 13 PA, 0.595 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 15 PA, 0.595 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 18 PA, 0.593 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 12 PA, 0.592 xwOBA
Alex Verdugo - 15 PA, 18 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 17 PA, 23 Swings, 95.7 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 13 PA, 23 Swings, 95.7 Cont%
Wander Franco - 13 PA, 19 Swings, 94.7 Cont%
Tyler Stephenson - 11 PA, 17 Swings, 94.1 Cont%
Spencer Steer - 12 PA, 17 Swings, 94.1 Cont%
Yasmani Grandal - 14 PA, 16 Swings, 93.8 Cont%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 15 PA, 31 Swings, 93.5 Cont%
Myles Straw - 16 PA, 26 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Seth Brown - 12 PA, 26 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Kevin Smith (OAK): 4/6, 3R, 3HR, 7RBI, 0SB, 53FPts
Brian O'Keefe (SEA): 4/4, 3R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 46FPts
Vaughn Grissom (ATL): 3/5, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 40FPts
Jose Caballero (SEA): 3/3, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2SB, 36FPts
Eli White (ATL): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 34FPts
Charles Leblanc (MIA): 3/5, 2R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 33FPts
Tyler Freeman (CLE): 2/4, 3R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 32FPts
Peyton Burdick (MIA): 2/6, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Richie Palacios (CLE): 2/5, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 30FPts
JJ Bleday (OAK): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Kenny Rosenberg (LAA): 5IP, 4H, 0ER, 6K, 1BB, 24FPts
Bowden Francis (TOR): 4IP, 4H, 0ER, 7K, 0BB, 20FPts
Jeff Criswell (COL): 3IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB, 18FPts
Bryan Garcia (HOU): 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 4K, 3BB, 17FPts
Janson Junk (MIL): 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 5K, 2BB, 16FPts
Jackson Kowar (KC): 3IP, 4H, 0ER, 4K, 2BB, 15FPts
Spenser Watkins (BAL): 5IP, 5H, 3ER, 5K, 3BB, 14FPts
Randy Dobnak (MIN): 4IP, 3H, 1ER, 5K, 5BB, 12FPts
Ashton Goudeau (DET): 4IP, 4H, 1ER, 4K, 0BB, 12FPts
Kyle Leahy (STL): 3IP, 1H, 1ER, 4K, 0BB, 12FPts
Michael Kopech (30.0) Owned: Projected 5.98IP 1.95ER 6.38SO 2.68BB 18.99FPts
Kutter Crawford (0.5) Owned: Projected 6.54IP 2.39ER 6.18SO 2.72BB 18.26FPts
Tyler Mahle (49.5) Owned: Projected 6.0IP 1.99ER 5.66SO 1.81BB 17.43FPts
Kyle Lewis OF (1.5) Owned: Projected 0.81R 0.19HR 0.53RBI 1.19SO 0.57BB 0.0SB 8.67FPts
Spencer Steer 3B (5.5) Owned: Projected 0.68R 0.22HR 0.55RBI 0.93SO 0.42BB 0.03SB 8.55FPts
Evan Longoria 3B (1.0) Owned: Projected 0.64R 0.21HR 0.68RBI 0.97SO 0.35BB 0.0SB 8.32FPts
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF (30.5) Owned: Projected 0.63R 0.12HR 0.64RBI 0.7SO 0.27BB 0.0SB 8.09FPts
Jesse Winker LF (32.0) Owned: Projected 0.68R 0.16HR 0.55RBI 0.79SO 0.57BB 0.0SB 8.05FPts
Carlos Santana 1B (11.5) Owned: Projected 0.6R 0.13HR 0.67RBI 0.8SO 0.63BB 0.0SB 7.98FPts
Seth Brown 1B (33.5) Owned: Projected 0.54R 0.22HR 0.6RBI 1.0SO 0.33BB 0.07SB 7.93FPts
Ryan McMahon 3B (47.0) Owned: Projected 0.59R 0.17HR 0.62RBI 1.03SO 0.42BB 0.05SB 7.93FPts
Andrew McCutchen LF (18.5) Owned: Projected 0.58R 0.13HR 0.59RBI 1.1SO 0.46BB 0.05SB 7.72FPts
Jurickson Profar LF (21.0) Owned: Projected 0.66R 0.09HR 0.43RBI 0.67SO 0.51BB 0.06SB 7.63FPts
