MLB Daily Notes - April 3rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I was struck by inspiration last night while putting my kids to bed. This is good news and bad news. The good news is that we have a new tracker and a new part of the daily notes focused on pitcher efficiency. The bad news is that I was thinking about baseball stuff while reading my kids a story. Not great. I will continue to work on the separation of baseball and important things in my own mind, but for now you all get more data.
In my mind, the best way to describe pitcher efficiency would be by looking at pitches per out recorded. Pitches/Out… P/OUT… POUT. So that’s what I’m calling it, POUT leaders. There’s a new tracker here, free for everybody at the current moment.
The sheet has three tabs
Season (full season leaders)
Yesterday (yesterday’s leaders)
By start (the data for every individual start made)
Here’s what the yesterday tab looks like:
I include Strike% and BABIP in there since those two things seem very related to efficiency. To get outs in a hurry, you want to not throw balls, and you want to get outs at a high rate when balls are put in play.
Alec Marsh
The POUT king yesterday was Alec Marsh, who I’ve talked about a few times prior to this, he’s a very interesting arm. Marsh cruised through seven innings last night on just 76 pitches. He gave up two hits and posted a 5:1 K:BB with a 13.2% SwStr% and a 28.9% Ball%. Fantastic start.
Look at the #depth. Five pitches above 13% usage. The change was a disaster, but he survived it, and the sweeper, four-seamer, and slider were all pretty good. I’m not sure he’s a priority add or anything like that, but he’s definitely an interesting guy to watch, and someone to add in deeper leagues.
Framber Valdez
Valdez bounced back from his six-walk debut. He got through 7.2 innings on 85 pitches and didn’t give up a run on six hits and a 5:0 K:BB.
The Blue Jays have been put to shame early on, although they did end up winning that game after a Josh Hader blown save. The Blue Jays are hitting .196 so far with a .618 OPS.
Andrew Heaney
The prop bets had a really nice day yesterday (tracker is here), headlined by Heaney’s over on the strikeouts. He threw 90 pitches and posted a great 7:0 K:BB on a 20% SwStr% and 18 whiffs. I figured that Heaney would throw more pitches per outing this year since the Rangers are strapped for starting pitching, and it seems like I was right about that.
That doesn’t mean Heaney is going to be great. He’s been so inconsistent and weird for so many years now that you can’t trust him for fantasy purposes, but it was a fantastic start to his season.
That’s a bunch of slow fastballs. 63% usage on a 91 mph fastball isn’t likely to work very well for long, so I think we’re in for another up-and-down season from the Heandog.
Garrett Crochet
Crochet might be the story of the young season. He did this against the Braves last night:
7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, 19.4% SwStr%, 50.5% Strike%, 32.3% Ball%
The FanGraphs Stuff+ on him is 120.6. According to FanGraphs, that’s
A look at Crochet’s career marks (since 2021, but he missed the 2022 season):
He’s gone from a bullpen role to a starter role and has gotten way better.
To me, this is a really good sell-high spot. The guy:
Didn’t pitch in 2022
Threw just 25 innings last year
Has never been a starter before
Is on the White Sox
It’s possible he’s just letting it all hang out right now early in the year to show what he’s got. He might have to reel in some of this velocity and nastiness. And even if he doesn’t, how many innings can we really expect from him? If there are any suckers in your league, I’d try to get something nice for Crochet. You can certainly use the fact that he dominated the Braves as a good selling point.
Yu Darvish
Look at Yu Darvish, bro.
3 GS, 15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 25% K%, 7.8% BB%
Pitching like his old self! And we have to check the “scroll down" pitch mix:
That screenie barely fits on the screenie! He even threw a pitch that the algo didn’t even know what to do with! It’s like I quit bro - NULL. Great to see Darvish pitching well. I think he can maintain a mid-20’s K% and keep the walks under 9%, he’s a guy you want to start in most matchups right now and you’re very happy you took the age-37 discount.
Shane Bieber
Is the Biebs back? 12 scoreless innings so far with a 20:1 K:BB.
The slider has been over-performing so far with a 39% SwStr% and 54% Strike%. Those numbers aren’t going to stick. The four-seamer has been located well with a 54% Strike% and a 33% Ball%, but the whiffs aren’t there on the pitch and it’s around 92mph (still up from 91 last year, but down from 93mph at its heights).
I don’t think Bieber is going to be an SP1 for fantasy, but the command the skills and the depth of the arsenal will keep him as a guy that has a lot more good starts than bad ones, really nice to see him healthy again. But he would be a guy I would consider trading away if you get some kind of SP2 or better offer for him.
Luis Castillo
He’s off to a slow start with 12 earnies already.
So you might be freaked out by that. He’s pretty much my only good, healthy SP right now in MLB DW league, so I’m pretty P-O’d about it.
I wouldn’t worry though. The SwStr% is low, but this is Luis Castillo we’re talking about, a known commodity. The one thing to note and monitor is the fastball velocity, which is down from 96 to 95.
We want to see that come up. A lot of his ace-ness last year came from getting a super high SwStr% on his four-seamer last year, and that hasn’t happened yet this year and it probably has some to do with the lack of velo.
I bet we see that velocity return and Castillo get back into ace shape soon, but yeah there are slight reasons to watch him more closely than you otherwise would.
Pitcher Reports
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane Bieber (vs. SEA): 31.9 Points
2. Garrett Crochet (vs. ATL): 31.35 Points
3. Spencer Turnbull (vs. CIN): 27.45 Points
4. Tyler Anderson (vs. MIA): 26.15 Points
5. Alec Marsh (vs. BAL): 25.95 Points
6. Zac Gallen (vs. NYY): 25.9 Points
7. Javier Assad (vs. COL): 24.5 Points
8. Framber Valdez (vs. TOR): 23.66 Points
9. Zach Eflin (vs. TEX): 22.64 Points
10. Andrew Heaney (vs. TB): 20.11 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 18 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 18 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Brayan Bello (BOS): 17 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. Yu Darvish (SD): 16 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
5. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
6. Alex Wood (OAK): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 11 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
8. Mason Miller (OAK): 11 Whiffs (29 Pitches)
9. Shane Bieber (CLE): 11 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
10. Louie Varland (MIN): 11 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo (SEA): 53.5 Strike%, 27.3 Ball%
2. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 53.3 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
3. Spencer Turnbull (PHI): 53.0 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
4. Alex Wood (OAK): 52.1 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
5. Javier Assad (CHC): 50.6 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
6. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 50.5 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
7. Shane Bieber (CLE): 49.4 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
8. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 48.4 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
9. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 48.2 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
10. Yu Darvish (SD): 47.6 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
11. Alec Marsh (KC): 47.4 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
12. Brayan Bello (BOS): 47.1 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
13. Framber Valdez (HOU): 47.1 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
14. Bryan Hoeing (MIA): 45.8 Strike%, 33.9 Ball%
15. Zac Gallen (AZ): 44.8 Strike%, 41.7 Ball%
Here’s the new section!
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Alec Marsh: 76 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.62 POUT
2. Framber Valdez: 85 Pitches, 22 Outs, 3.86 POUT
3. Yu Darvish: 82 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.9 POUT
4. Tyler Anderson: 83 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.95 POUT
5. Zach Eflin: 83 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.37 POUT
6. Garrett Crochet: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
7. Reynaldo Lopez: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
8. Shane Bieber: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
9. Graham Ashcraft: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
10. Miles Mikolas: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
Kyle Freeland really does have a lot more velocity this year, but it’s not like that matters. We still aren’t going near him in fantasy leagues.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kyle Freeland's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 86.4
Cole Irvin's FC velo (15 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 87.7
Brayan Bello's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 87.6
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 82.7
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (15 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 90.8
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.6
Cole Irvin's CU velo (28 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 78.7
Framber Valdez's CH velo (21 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 91.7
Spencer Turnbull's FF velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.2
Andrew Heaney's FF velo (57 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.6
Zac Gallen's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 84.3
Jesus Luzardo's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 86.3
Javier Assad's FC velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 87.1
Graham Ashcraft's SI velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 94.4
Alec Marsh's ST velo (18 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 83.6
Yu Darvish's FS velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 86.9
Zac Gallen's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 79.6
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (54 pitches) DOWN -3.3mph to 94.9
Reynaldo Lopez's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -4.7mph to 83.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alec Marsh's ST usage (23.7%) up 11.4 points
Cole Irvin's CU usage (34.6%) up 20.1 points
Framber Valdez's SL usage (10.6%) up 10.5 points
Garrett Crochet's FC usage (19.4%) up 17.3 points
Graham Ashcraft's SI usage (33.7%) up 24.1 points
Jose Berrios's SI usage (42.0%) up 10.4 points
Kyle Freeland's SL usage (36.8%) up 13.5 points
Logan Webb's SL usage (39.6%) up 18.3 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CU usage (40.0%) up 13.6 points
Spencer Turnbull's FF usage (51.7%) up 10.8 points
Yu Darvish's FS usage (25.6%) up 17.9 points
Zac Gallen's SL usage (14.6%) up 12.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 45 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 48 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 38 TBF, 30.9% CSW%
Michael King - 38 TBF, 30.7% CSW%
Alex Wood - 42 TBF, 29.9% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 43 TBF, 29.9% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 63 TBF, 29.9% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 50 TBF, 29.8% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 42 TBF, 29.8% CSW%
Nestor Cortes - 46 TBF, 29.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 45 TBF, 44.4% K%
Garrett Crochet - 48 TBF, 33.3% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 38 TBF, 31.6% K%
Michael King - 38 TBF, 28.9% K%
Yu Darvish - 63 TBF, 25.4% K%
Luis Castillo - 49 TBF, 24.5% K%
Alex Wood - 42 TBF, 23.8% K%
Logan Webb - 43 TBF, 23.3% K%
Zac Gallen - 43 TBF, 20.9% K%
Framber Valdez - 50 TBF, 20.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 45 TBF, 42.2% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 48 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 38 TBF, 21.1% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 49 TBF, 20.4% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 63 TBF, 19.0% K-BB%
Brayan Bello - 42 TBF, 16.7% K-BB%
Alex Wood - 42 TBF, 16.7% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 43 TBF, 16.3% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 50 TBF, 16.0% K-BB%
Miles Mikolas - 46 TBF, 13.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 50 TBF, 71.9% GB%
Zac Gallen - 43 TBF, 50.0% GB%
Jose Berrios - 47 TBF, 50.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 45 TBF, 50.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 49 TBF, 48.6% GB%
Brayan Bello - 42 TBF, 46.9% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 48 TBF, 45.2% GB%
Yu Darvish - 63 TBF, 44.2% GB%
Nestor Cortes - 46 TBF, 42.9% GB%
Kyle Freeland - 40 TBF, 41.9% GB%
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