Boring day yesterday, but a loaded slate today with non-stop baseball from lunchtime through bedtime.
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The man of the day was Josiah Gray who earned 19 whiffs in Coors Field. Since 2021, only eight pitchers have racked up at least 19 whiffs.
Jacob deGrom 4/17/21 - 27 whiffs
Kevin Gausman 9/26/21 - 25 whiffs
German Marquez 4/23/21 - 24 whiffs
Kevin Gausman 9/6/21 - 21 whiffs
German Marquez 7/4/21 - 20 whiffs
Josiah Gray 4/6/23 - 19 whiffs
Tony Gonsolin 9/20/20 - 19 whiffs
Zac Gallen 9/11/2022 - 19 whiffs
So that’s something!
Gray’s pitch usage this year:
Slider 34%
Curveball 26%
Four-Seam 21%
Cutter 12%
Sinker 6%
Last year:
Four-Seam 39%
Slider 30%
Curveball 25%
Sinker 4%
Changeup 3%
So he is another guy (like we noticed with Roansy Contreras the other day) that has come into 2023 just throwing their best pitch a lot. Before last season, it was pretty rare to see a pitcher leading their pitch mix with a breaking ball, but it seems to be becoming much more common.
He got knocked around in his first start against the Braves, but that is pretty much to be expected against that ridiculous lineup. One start doesn’t mean much, and two starts doesn’t mean much more - but Gray is a guy who has good stuff and we shouldn’t just write him off for the future. He has been crushed by the long ball in the past, and that’s been his main problem, and one way to allow fewer homers is to throw fewer fastballs, so I’m at least a little bit intrigued by him right now.
Forgot to hit you with the league stats update yesterday, so here it is:
Still seeing a higher home run rate, and a much higher steal attempt and success rates.
The league is hitting .298 on non-homer batted balls this year, last year that was .293, and last April that was .286.
Righties are hitting .303 on non-homer batted balls and lefties are at .291.
The league HR/Brl is at 49%, last April it was at 41% and for the whole season last year it was 47%. I am starting to believe that the baseball is once again traveling further, however, this could also be explained by other things like pitchers being bothered by the pitch clock, or more games being played in homer-friendly stadiums, etc. We’ll keep a close eye on it.
Lance Lynn got bombed yesterday for eight earned runs. His SwStr% was down at 9.1% as well so it wasn’t just bad luck with the homer. Lynn is my most-owned pitcher this year, so I’m having trouble seeing it clearly - but I’m not going to consider benching him at this point. I think he just hasn’t found the feel yet. Clearly, he hasn’t had the same command with a 15% BB% so far - that’s ten points above what he did last year. If the walk rate stays above like 8% come May, then we’ll have something to worry about - but for now, I’m starting him / looking to buy low.
Blake Snell was also miserable and that start sent him out of the JA top 10 (he was #1), crowning Nick Lodolo as the new top JA model pitcher.
These kinds of starts are just what you get with Snell. If I’m forgiving Lynn, then I’m certainly forgiving Snell as well. Although I wouldn’t have drafted Snell because he’s so frustrating and inconsistent, and you’ll see below that he lost some velocity yesterday to boot. He’ll have some gems as well, this is just the guy you should have known you were getting when you drafted him - so don’t go benching him yet.
And now on to your regularly scheduled programming.
1. Josiah Gray (WSH): 19 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 18 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
3. Chris Sale (BOS): 10 Whiffs (74 Pitches)
4. Jordan Lyles (KC): 10 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
5. Merrill Kelly (AZ): 10 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
6. Blake Snell (SD): 10 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 10 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
8. Lance Lynn (CWS): 9 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
9. Jakob Junis (SF): 9 Whiffs (69 Pitches)
10. Dustin May (LAD): 9 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 17.8 SwStr%, 38.6 CSW%
2. Jakob Junis (SF): 13.0 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
3. Josiah Gray (WSH): 18.6 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
4. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 11.6 SwStr%, 29.1 CSW%
5. Chris Sale (BOS): 13.5 SwStr%, 28.4 CSW%
6. Jordan Lyles (KC): 9.4 SwStr%, 28.3 CSW%
7. Merrill Kelly (AZ): 10.1 SwStr%, 28.3 CSW%
8. Lance Lynn (CWS): 9.1 SwStr%, 27.3 CSW%
9. Dustin May (LAD): 10.8 SwStr%, 26.5 CSW%
10. Alex Wood (SF): 9.9 SwStr%, 23.9 CSW%
1. Josiah Gray - 6.0 IP - 74.75 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider - 5.0 IP - 62.5 JA Points
3. Jordan Lyles - 5.67 IP - 51.25 JA Points
4. Mason Thompson - 2.0 IP - 35.75 JA Points
5. Jakob Junis - 4.0 IP - 35.0 JA Points
6. Kevin Gausman - 6.0 IP - 34.25 JA Points
7. Chris Sale - 5.0 IP - 33.0 JA Points
8. Dustin May - 6.0 IP - 32.25 JA Points
9. Kyle Freeland - 6.33 IP - 22.0 JA Points
10. Anthony Bass - 1.0 IP - 17.5 JA Points
1. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 1.0 GS - 83.25 JA Points
2. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 2.0 GS - 69.44 JA Points
3. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 68.65 JA Points
4. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 1.0 GS - 63.33 JA Points
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 2.0 GS - 54.96 JA Points
6. Logan Webb (SF) - 2.0 GS - 53.2 JA Points
7. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 2.0 GS - 53.04 JA Points
8. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 2.0 GS - 52.92 JA Points
9. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 2.0 GS - 52.61 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 2.0 GS - 50.36 JA Points
Blake Snell's FF velo (38 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.2
Spencer Strider's SL velo (35 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.6
Lance Lynn's FF velo (49 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.3
Lance Lynn's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.1
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 79.1
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 87.6
Chris Sale's SI velo (27 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 91.5
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 83.4
Alex Wood's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 82.2
Kevin Gausman's FS velo (40 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 82.8
Chris Sale's FF velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 92.1
Chris Sale's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 76.7
Lance Lynn's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 79.2
Chris Sale's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 84.0
Kevin Gausman's FF velo (39 pitches) DOWN -3.6mph to 91.3
My data has no sweepers prior to 2023, which throws this off wildly. In a few weeks we’ll just be comparing 2023 with 2023 and then these results will be better
Chris Sale's SI usage (36.5%) up 22.9 points
Dustin May's FF usage (44.6%) up 18.6 points
Jakob Junis's SL usage (62.3%) up 10.6 points
Jordan Lyles's ST usage (18.9%) up 18.2 points
Josiah Gray's SL usage (42.2%) up 12.1 points
Kevin Gausman's FS usage (46.5%) up 11.2 points
Kyle Freeland's SI usage (32.6%) up 10.1 points
Merrill Kelly's CH usage (33.3%) up 11.4 points
Spencer Turnbull's SI usage (29.2%) up 14.9 points
Jesus Luzardo - 48 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Logan Webb - 46 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 39 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 45 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 48 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 44 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 40 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Cristian Javier - 46 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 44 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 49 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 39 TBF, 46.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 44 TBF, 43.2% K%
Dylan Cease - 44 TBF, 40.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 45 TBF, 40.0% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 48 TBF, 37.5% K%
Pablo Lopez - 44 TBF, 36.4% K%
Logan Webb - 46 TBF, 34.8% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 48 TBF, 31.2% K%
Chris Sale - 42 TBF, 31.0% K%
Mitch Keller - 49 TBF, 30.6% K%
Jacob deGrom - 39 TBF, 41.0% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 44 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 46 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 44 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 44 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 45 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 42 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 40 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 50 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 48 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 50 TBF, 62.9% GB%
Kyle Muller - 44 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 46 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Mitch Keller - 49 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Spencer Turnbull - 40 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 47 TBF, 53.3% GB%
David Peterson - 43 TBF, 51.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 53 TBF, 51.2% GB%
Julio Urias - 42 TBF, 50.0% GB%
Josiah Gray - 49 TBF, 50.0% GB%
Brandon Woodruff - 22 TBF, 36.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 23 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 46 TBF, 34.8 K%, 4.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 40 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Mason Thompson - 24 TBF, 29.2 K%, 0.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Seth Lugo - 25 TBF, 28.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Steven Matz - 25 TBF, 28.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 22 TBF, 31.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Matt Chapman (TOR) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Rafael Devers (BOS) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jake Burger, Yesterday: 116.5 Previous High: 114.4
Jake McCarthy, Yesterday: 108.5 Previous High: 108.3
1. Jake Cronenworth - 4.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
2. Michael Conforto - 6.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
3. Sean Murphy - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Orlando Arcia - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
5. Jake Burger - 2.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
6. Wilmer Flores - 6.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
7. Adam Duvall - 4.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
8. Matt Olson - 5.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
9. Rafael Devers - 4.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
10. Gavin Sheets - 3.0 PA - 31.0 JA Points
1. Mike Trout (LAA) - 28.0 PA - 292.86 JA Points
2. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 27.0 PA - 285.93 JA Points
3. Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 25.0 PA - 268.8 JA Points
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 34.0 PA - 256.47 JA Points
5. Miguel Vargas (LAD) - 18.0 PA - 255.56 JA Points
6. Brian Anderson (MIL) - 23.0 PA - 253.91 JA Points
7. Will Smith (LAD) - 28.0 PA - 252.86 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 22.0 PA - 241.82 JA Points
9. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 27.0 PA - 240.0 JA Points
10. Adam Duvall (BOS) - 28.0 PA - 231.43 JA Points
Jake Burger (CWS) - 116.5mph - double
Matt Olson (ATL) - 111.9mph - double
Juan Soto (SD) - 111.8mph - field_out
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.4mph - single
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) - 109.7mph - home_run
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 109.5mph - double
Sean Murphy (ATL) - 109.4mph - double
Alek Thomas (AZ) - 108.9mph - field_out
J.D. Davis (SF) - 108.6mph - force_out
Blake Sabol (SF) - 108.5mph - home_run
Joey Gallo - 18 PA, 10 BIP, 5 Brls, 50.0 Brl%
Brian Anderson - 23 PA, 14 BIP, 6 Brls, 42.9 Brl%
Matt Olson - 33 PA, 18 BIP, 6 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Bryan Reynolds - 27 PA, 21 BIP, 7 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 29 PA, 22 BIP, 7 Brls, 31.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 26 PA, 13 BIP, 4 Brls, 30.8 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 28 PA, 20 BIP, 6 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
James Outman - 23 PA, 10 BIP, 3 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
C.J. Cron - 29 PA, 21 BIP, 6 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Gunnar Henderson - 22 PA, 7 BIP, 2 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Brian Anderson - 23 PA, 0.591 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 27 PA, 0.573 xwOBA
Miguel Vargas - 18 PA, 0.56 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 34 PA, 0.556 xwOBA
Mike Trout - 28 PA, 0.552 xwOBA
Bryan Reynolds - 27 PA, 0.539 xwOBA
Adam Duvall - 28 PA, 0.537 xwOBA
Joey Gallo - 18 PA, 0.53 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 30 PA, 0.5 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 30 PA, 0.499 xwOBA
Alex Verdugo - 32 PA, 45 Swings, 95.6 Cont%
Luis Garcia - 21 PA, 40 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 26 PA, 38 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 24 PA, 48 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 30 PA, 47 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 19 PA, 35 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 27 PA, 44 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Wander Franco - 27 PA, 43 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Kolten Wong - 20 PA, 43 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 28 PA, 47 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Adam Duvall - 28 PA, 14.3 K%, 30.0 Brl%
Alejandro Kirk - 18 PA, 16.7 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 22 PA, 13.6 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Bo Bichette - 35 PA, 17.1 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Brendan Donovan - 25 PA, 20.0 K%, 22.2 Brl%
Bryan Reynolds - 27 PA, 14.8 K%, 33.3 Brl%
Corey Seager - 27 PA, 18.5 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 22 PA, 13.6 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 25 PA, 8.0 K%, 23.5 Brl%
Jorge Mateo - 20 PA, 15.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Josh Naylor - 22 PA, 18.2 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 30 PA, 16.7 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Matt Carpenter - 21 PA, 14.3 K%, 23.1 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 29 PA, 17.2 K%, 31.8 Brl%
Miguel Vargas - 18 PA, 16.7 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 30 PA, 13.3 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Randy Arozarena - 26 PA, 15.4 K%, 22.2 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 35 PA, 14.3 K%, 23.1 Brl%
Seth Brown - 24 PA, 16.7 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 34 PA, 2.9 K%, 18.5 Brl%
Wander Franco - 27 PA, 7.4 K%, 18.2 Brl%
J.J. Matijevic (HOU): 4/5, 3R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 40FPts
Heston Kjerstad (BAL): 2/4, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 30FPts
Andy Ibanez (DET): 2/4, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
J.P. Martinez (TEX): 2/3, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 26FPts
Jose Rodriguez (CWS): 3/5, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0SB, 26FPts
Edouard Julien (MIN): 2/5, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 25FPts
Tristan Gray (TB): 2/5, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 25FPts
Christopher Morel (CHC): 3/5, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 24FPts
Mark Vientos (NYM): 3/3, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 24FPts
Nolan Jones (COL): 2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 23FPts
Andrew Abbott (CIN): 4IP, 0H, 0ER, 11K, 1BB, 31FPts
Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 5IP, 0H, 0ER, 8K, 0BB, 31FPts
Garrett Whitlock (BOS): 6IP, 1H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB, 30FPts
Matthew Liberatore (STL): 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 7K, 2BB, 26FPts
Gavin Williams (CLE): 4IP, 2H, 0ER, 9K, 1BB, 25FPts
Mason Erla (LAA): 4IP, 3H, 0ER, 9K, 2BB, 24FPts
Anthony Veneziano (KC): 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 7K, 1BB, 23FPts
Sem Robberse (TOR): 4IP, 4H, 1ER, 8K, 2BB, 20FPts
Luis Ortiz (PIT): 4IP, 3H, 1ER, 7K, 1BB, 20FPts
Taj Bradley (TB): 5IP, 2H, 1ER, 4K, 0BB, 20FPts
Tylor Megill (13.5) Owned: Projected 6.44IP 2.28ER 6.29SO 1.64BB 18.99FPts
Sonny Gray (47.0) Owned: Projected 6.24IP 2.13ER 5.6SO 1.84BB 17.3FPts
Zach Eflin (33.5) Owned: Projected 5.97IP 1.98ER 5.14SO 1.1BB 17.22FPts
Jeimer Candelario 3B (3.5% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.15HR 0.71RBI 0.84SO 0.45BB 0.0SB 8.78FPts
Luis Garcia SS (1.5% Owned): Projected 0.74R 0.15HR 0.48RBI 0.79SO 0.18BB 0.06SB 8.63FPts
Jurickson Profar LF (18.5% Owned): Projected 0.76R 0.09HR 0.5RBI 0.69SO 0.7BB 0.09SB 8.49FPts
Jesse Winker LF (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.72R 0.15HR 0.59RBI 0.79SO 0.7BB 0.0SB 8.4FPts
Trayce Thompson RF (23.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.2HR 0.64RBI 1.23SO 0.48BB 0.04SB 8.25FPts
Michael Conforto RF (30.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.12HR 0.57RBI 0.91SO 0.66BB 0.01SB 8.2FPts
Ryan McMahon 3B (46.0% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.15HR 0.62RBI 1.02SO 0.55BB 0.07SB 8.17FPts
Dominic Smith 1B (1.5% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.12HR 0.69RBI 0.84SO 0.35BB 0.03SB 8.07FPts
LaMonte Wade Jr. RF (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.71R 0.16HR 0.47RBI 0.83SO 0.52BB 0.06SB 8.04FPts
Lane Thomas LF (6.5% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.12HR 0.6RBI 0.85SO 0.42BB 0.09SB 8.03FPts
