MLB Daily Notes - August 10th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Pitchers - Yesterday
We got our first look at 2020 first-rounder Emerson Hancock. My dad worked and recently retired from a company called Emerson, so I kind of like this guy.
He had a pretty solid debut with five innings and just one run, but the 3:3 K:BB wasn’t impressive, and the 12.6% SwStr% is just okay. He did earn a lot of strikes and keep the ball on the ground - so pretty interesting stuff there. The sinker with a 15.7% SwStr% is wild - that’s incredibly high for a sinker. So either this is not a standard sinker, or it was a very lucky night for him. I didn’t watch any of the game - so I can’t speak to what the pitch looks like. But we’ll see what he does from here forward - there’s definitely a rotation spot for Seattle with Woo on the IL, and Hancock probably has 30 good innings left in him given that’s only at 103 this year and threw 98 last year:
Lorenzen, of course, threw a no-hitter. He walked four, which makes it significantly less exciting in my book, but hey he thanked God after the game and has a wife and baby so that’s #MyKindaGuy. Good for Lorenzen, he’s certainly having a career year.
But I can’t be all nice here. He had just a 10.5% SwStr%. Every no hitter is going to involve a lot of good luck, so it’s no surprise to see that Lorenzen was the luckiest pitcher of the day by wOBA vs. xwOBA:
But should I be criticizing the guy for being lucky in throwing a no-hitter? No! So I don’t know, just try to read this in a tone that doesn’t make it sound like I’m criticizing him.
There have been four no-hitters this year, here are those instances (showing the offenses) and their xBA:
So Domingo German’s was actually the “best” by xBA. Lorenzen’s was the worst, but it wasn’t much different than the Framber no-no or the Manning+Foley+Lange combo job the Tigers had.
The lowest xBA day of the year was actually that crazy Pivetta 13 strikeout game as a bulk guy a few weeks ago:
The Athletics went for just a .058 xBA in that game and had the one lone hit.
Kevin Gausman had a big game of his own. The Guardians indeed limited the strikeout once again, giving Gausman just six punchouts in seven innings - but he didn’t let them do anything with just four hits and no runs.
Graham Ashcraft did it yet again. He had seven strikeouts and 18 whiffs this time. Seven strikeouts is his second-most of the season (he’s done that three times now). Here’s what the pitch mix has looked like since the all-star break
The .292 xwOBA is quite good, and he’s kept the ball on the ground pretty well at 50% GB%. The rest of the numbers are really not exciting though. He has an average Strike%, and the Ball% is good but not fantastic.
He is one of these “stuff” guys that just has a lot of velocity and movement, so maybe he can actually do this kind of stuff more often than not (meaning getting good results/weak contact without the strikeouts). It’s been a good run since July, no doubt about it:
Nick Pivetta threw 90 pitches and ruined our betting day. We thought he’d only throw 60-70 pitches but nope! 90 pitches, eight strikeouts, 16 whiffs, a 17.8% SwStr%. He’s been amazing since getting back in the rotation.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Michael Lorenzen (vs. WSH): 31.85 Points
2. Kevin Gausman (vs. CLE): 29.35 Points
3. Graham Ashcraft (vs. MIA): 25.35 Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (vs. SF): 23.9 Points
5. Mike Clevinger (vs. NYY): 23.9 Points
6. Nick Pivetta (vs. KC): 23.65 Points
7. Freddy Tarnok (vs. TEX): 18.6 Points
8. Sean Manaea (vs. LAA): 17.8 Points
9. Jordan Lyles (vs. BOS): 17.2 Points
10. Bobby Miller (vs. ARI): 16.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober (MIN): 22 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 19 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
3. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 18 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
4. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 16 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
5. Jack Flaherty (BAL): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
6. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 14 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
7. Jordan Montgomery (TEX): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Michael Lorenzen (PHI): 13 Whiffs (124 Pitches)
9. Quinn Priester (PIT): 13 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. Johnny Cueto (MIA): 12 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sean Manaea (SF): 60.7 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
2. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 53.4 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
3. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 53.3 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
4. Johnny Cueto (MIA): 53.2 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
5. Mike Clevinger (CWS): 51.2 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
6. Bailey Ober (MIN): 50.5 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
7. Jack Flaherty (BAL): 50.0 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
8. Emerson Hancock (SEA): 49.4 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
9. Adrian Houser (MIL): 49.3 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
10. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 48.9 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
11. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 48.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
12. Quinn Priester (PIT): 47.7 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
13. Jordan Lyles (KC): 47.1 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
14. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 46.8 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
15. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 46.4 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Max Fried's SI velo (11 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 94.7
Quinn Priester's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 90.3
Max Fried's FF velo (30 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 95.4
Freddy Tarnok's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.6
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (23 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 77.2
Johnny Cueto's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.0
Nick Pivetta's CU velo (27 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 80.5
MacKenzie Gore's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.7
Adrian Houser's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 81.0
Michael Lorenzen's CH velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.0
Max Fried's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 83.1
Shohei Ohtani's FC velo (13 pitches) DOWN -5.0mph to 83.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Houser's SL usage (28.4%) up 12.1 points
Alex Faedo's SL usage (45.9%) up 11.2 points
Bailey Ober's FF usage (60.2%) up 15.0 points
Bobby Miller's FF usage (42.9%) up 21.6 points
David Peterson's CU usage (22.6%) up 14.9 points
Graham Ashcraft's SI usage (21.4%) up 12.0 points
Jordan Lyles's FC usage (16.7%) up 10.4 points
MacKenzie Gore's CH usage (12.5%) up 10.8 points
Quinn Priester's SL usage (30.2%) up 13.2 points
Sean Manaea's ST usage (27.9%) up 26.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +28.8%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -22.5%
Ryan Walker Slider: +22.5%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +20.1%
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +19.6%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -16.9%
Mike Clevinger Changeup: +16.9%
Zack Greinke 4-Seam Fastball: +16.7%
Yonny Chirinos Slider: -16.6%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.7%
Eury Perez Slider: +14.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +14.3%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -14.1%
Michael Grove 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -13.3%
Bailey Ober 4-Seam Fastball: +13.3%
Brennan Bernardino Sinker: +13.0%
Brennan Bernardino Curveball: -13.0%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.9%
Brandon Pfaadt Sweeper: +12.9%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Ross Stripling Changeup: +12.8%
Adrian Houser Slider: +12.8%
Bryce Elder Sinker: +12.7%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Bobby Miller Slider: -12.3%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%
Luis Medina Sinker: +12.2%
Zach Eflin Sinker: -12.0%
Ross Stripling 4-Seam Fastball: -12.0%
Luke Weaver Changeup: -12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 76 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 98 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 41.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
George Kirby - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Kenta Maeda - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 31.7% K%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 30.6% K%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
George Kirby - 90 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Kenta Maeda - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 66.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 66 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 85 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 98 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 78 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 91 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 103 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 97 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 56.1% GB%
Chase Silseth - 44 TBF, 36.4 K%, 2.3 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Cole Ragans - 50 TBF, 38.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Domingo German - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Jesse Scholtens - 59 TBF, 28.8 K%, 3.4 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 5.1 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.1 BB%, 53.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 58 TBF, 32.8 K%, 1.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 32.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 66.0% GB%
Zach Eflin - 89 TBF, 27.0 K%, 1.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jack Flaherty - +2.0% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +3.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Adrian Houser - +4.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Matt Manning - +2.9% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Drew Smyly - +3.7% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +2.7% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +3.2% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Sean Manaea - +2.9% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Ross Stripling - +5.8% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Nick Martinez - +2.4% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Michael Grove - +6.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Cole Ragans - +9.5% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Josh Bell (MIA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
MJ Melendez (KC) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 114.9mph - nan
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.8mph - single
Luis Robert (CWS) - 114.7mph - nan
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.6mph - single
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) - 113.0mph - double
Christopher Morel (CHC) - 112.2mph - home_run
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 112.2mph - double
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 112.2mph - home_run
Austin Riley (ATL) - 111.8mph - single
Jordan Diaz (OAK) - 111.6mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 83 PA, 0.185 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, 0.187 Diff
Will Brennan - 58 PA, 0.267 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 0.288 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 68 PA, 0.214 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Joc Pederson - 56 PA, 0.331 wOBA, 0.396 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Salvador Perez - 74 PA, 0.263 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Yoan Moncada - 56 PA, 0.238 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Paul DeJong - 67 PA, 0.163 wOBA, 0.227 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Brett Baty - 55 PA, 0.166 wOBA, 0.227 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Michael Conforto - 57 PA, 0.23 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Bottom 10
Whit Merrifield - 82 PA, 0.374 wOBA, 0.247 xwOBA, -0.127 Diff
Freddie Freeman - 81 PA, 0.56 wOBA, 0.439 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Mike Moustakas - 74 PA, 0.386 wOBA, 0.266 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Hunter Renfroe - 77 PA, 0.352 wOBA, 0.233 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Jose Siri - 56 PA, 0.297 wOBA, 0.181 xwOBA, -0.116 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 69 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 64 PA, 0.46 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
Sal Frelick - 68 PA, 0.415 wOBA, 0.315 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Yan Gomes - 68 PA, 0.37 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 80 PA, 0.487 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Nolan Gorman - 57 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 50 PA, 26 BIP, 7 Brls, 26.9 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 52 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 77 PA, 57 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Austin Riley - 80 PA, 57 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 75 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Triston Casas - 58 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 71 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
MJ Melendez - 73 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 50 PA, 0.538 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 58 PA, 0.478 xwOBA
Gary Sanchez - 52 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 57 PA, 0.442 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 81 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 81 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 77 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 79 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 65 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 51 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Myles Straw - 46 PA, 101 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 57 PA, 87 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 67 PA, 124 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 50 PA, 91 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 135 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 76 PA, 173 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 76 PA, 142 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 57 PA, 89 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Will Brennan - 58 PA, 92 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Cody Bellinger - 85 PA, 173 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ha-Seong Kim - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Jose Altuve - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
TJ Friedl - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Luis Robert - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Chris Taylor - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 13 Attempts (13 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Luis Robert - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
TJ Friedl - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Lane Thomas - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Jarren Duran - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Zack Gelof - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.