MLB Daily Notes - August 11th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Prop bet trackers:
Shorter slate of games yesterday but still some things to talk about, let’s get into the notes.
Pitchers - Yesterday
Matthew Liberatore looked like a whole new man yesterday with 35 fantasy points and 15 whiffs. He went 8 shutout innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. A 14.9% SwStr%, a 51.5% Strike%.
The pitch mix wasn’t just different besides slightly lower FF usage in favor of the sinker.
Both fastballs were great, and the curveball was really great.
It’s hard to imagine that you can randomly pitch this much better, but it’s also hard to imagine that Liberatore is suddenly GOOD after what we saw from him in those first several outings.
But really good news for him, and he’s certainly someone to monitor the rest of the year so we can make the right call on him for 2024.
James Paxton was pretty good again with a 15.3% SwStr%, but he wasn’t very efficient and couldn’t get through the sixth. But hey 5.1 scoreless innings with a 6:0 K:BB is good to see - you’re starting Paxton from here on out:
14 GS, 14.6% SwStr%, 49.8% Strike%, 34.6% Ball%, 27.4% K%, 6.;7% BB%
Reese Olson had a great outing in his own right with this line:
6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 3 BB
The advanced stuff:
14.9% SwStr%, 50% Strike%, 37.2% Ball%
So he threw a few too many balls there, but was very, very hard to hit.
He threw the slider 30 times to match with the four-seamer, and that pitch is just nasty:
26.7% SwStr% on the pitch, and just a 7% BIP%.
For the year:
So he’s been pretty even slider+four-seamer all year. Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene have proven to us that this can work, but the problem with Olson is that his fastball hasn’t been good - as you can see there. The 48% Strike% is about average, and the .422 xwOBA is not a good sign. I would expect that to regress downward - but it is evidence that he doesn’t locate it super well and doesn’t have much movement with it.
It’s not a good thing when a hitter can guess when a fastball is coming, and only a small percentage of pitchers can get away with that at the Major League Level. I don’t think Olson is there yet, so he’ll need to improve that pitch - but the good news is that his slider is good enough to keep his head above water for now.
The only SPs with 300+ sliders thrown and a higher SwStr% than Olson:
Strider 30.1%
Grove 25.8%
Garrett 23.9%
Medina 23.8%
Perez 23.0%
Luzardo 22.8%
Blanco 22.7%
Kershaw 22.6%
Glasnow 22.%
Snell 21.2%
Cease 21.2%
Detmers 21.0%
Jon Gray 20.9%
Clayton Kershaw threw 67 pitches in his return but had just four whiffs (6% SwStr%), not a great sign - but obviously, we can forgive that given it was his first game action in weeks.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Matthew Liberatore (vs. TB): 34.8 Points
2. Reese Olson (vs. MIN): 30.5 Points
3. James Paxton (vs. KC): 24.39 Points
4. Dean Kremer (vs. HOU): 20.95 Points
5. Noah Syndergaard (vs. TOR): 19.96 Points
6. Ryan Yarbrough (vs. COL): 18.15 Points
7. Aaron Nola (vs. WSH): 17.65 Points
8. Kenta Maeda (vs. DET): 17.1 Points
9. Thomas Hatch (vs. ATL): 15.8 Points
10. Clayton Kershaw (vs. COL): 15.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Matthew Liberatore (STL): 15 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. James Paxton (BOS): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Reese Olson (DET): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 12 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
5. Hunter Brown (HOU): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
6. Noah Syndergaard (CLE): 12 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
7. Alec Marsh (KC): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Bryce Elder (ATL): 9 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
9. Bailey Falter (PIT): 8 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 8 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola (PHI): 54.3 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
2. Noah Syndergaard (CLE): 54.0 Strike%, 26.4 Ball%
3. Matthew Liberatore (STL): 51.5 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
4. Alek Manoah (TOR): 50.5 Strike%, 38.7 Ball%
5. James Paxton (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
6. Reese Olson (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
7. Hunter Brown (HOU): 48.5 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
8. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 47.2 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
9. Bailey Falter (PIT): 46.5 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
10. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 46.3 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%
11. Alec Marsh (KC): 42.9 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
12. Dean Kremer (BAL): 41.8 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
13. Bryce Elder (ATL): 41.4 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
14. Zack Littell (TB): 39.7 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
15. Ty Blach (COL): 36.1 Strike%, 43.4 Ball%
Pitcher / Pitch Trends
We see here that Paxton lost some velocity there. I used this opportunity to ask ChatGPT for some Python code to make a nice looking line plot, since mine are usually not very appealing to the eye.
And then I fit that into my Paxton FF Velo data frame and we get this:
Ohhh and then I can also show the changeup at the same time:
Lots of possibilities here asking ChatGPT to give me better data visualizations…
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (31 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 82.1
Matthew Liberatore's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 87.6
Noah Syndergaard's FF velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.2
James Paxton's FF velo (58 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 93.9
James Paxton's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 82.7
Alec Marsh's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 84.9
Noah Syndergaard's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 83.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alec Marsh's CU usage (29.7%) up 13.9 points
Bailey Falter's SI usage (15.1%) up 12.2 points
Bryce Elder's SI usage (52.9%) up 14.2 points
Hunter Brown's SL usage (37.1%) up 11.6 points
Kenta Maeda's FF usage (39.3%) up 15.5 points
Noah Syndergaard's FF usage (36.8%) up 22.5 points
Noah Syndergaard's SL usage (19.5%) up 17.1 points
Patrick Corbin's FF usage (26.4%) up 10.1 points
Zack Littell's FF usage (50.7%) up 11.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +28.8%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -22.5%
Ryan Walker Slider: +22.5%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +20.1%
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +19.6%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -16.9%
Mike Clevinger Changeup: +16.9%
Zack Greinke 4-Seam Fastball: +16.7%
Yonny Chirinos Slider: -16.6%
Bryce Elder Sinker: +15.7%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.7%
Eury Perez Slider: +14.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -14.8%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +14.3%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -14.1%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.1%
Michael Grove 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
Bailey Falter Slider: +13.6%
Kenta Maeda 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +13.4%
Bailey Ober 4-Seam Fastball: +13.3%
Brennan Bernardino Curveball: -13.0%
Brennan Bernardino Sinker: +13.0%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.9%
Brandon Pfaadt Sweeper: +12.9%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Ross Stripling Changeup: +12.8%
Adrian Houser Slider: +12.8%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -12.8%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Bobby Miller Slider: -12.3%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%
Luis Medina Sinker: +12.2%
Zach Eflin Sinker: -12.0%
Ross Stripling 4-Seam Fastball: -12.0%
Luke Weaver Changeup: -12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 76 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 102 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Cristopher Sanchez - 66 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 41.3% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
George Kirby - 65 TBF, 32.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 31.7% K%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 30.6% K%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
Nick Pivetta - 87 TBF, 29.9% K%
Blake Snell - 71 TBF, 29.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
George Kirby - 65 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Bryce Miller - 92 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 66 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 66 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 85 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Brayan Bello - 78 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 71 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 72 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 91 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 103 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 97 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 56.1% GB%
Chase Silseth - 44 TBF, 36.4 K%, 2.3 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Cole Ragans - 50 TBF, 38.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Domingo German - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
George Kirby - 65 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.6 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Jesse Scholtens - 59 TBF, 28.8 K%, 3.4 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 1.4 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 58 TBF, 32.8 K%, 1.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zac Gallen - 78 TBF, 28.2 K%, 6.4 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Zach Eflin - 89 TBF, 27.0 K%, 1.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Adrian Houser - +4.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Matt Manning - +2.9% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Drew Smyly - +3.7% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +4.0% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +2.7% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +7.5% CSW%, -6.0 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +3.2% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Sean Manaea - +2.9% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Ross Stripling - +5.8% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Michael Grove - +6.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Cole Ragans - +9.5% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Hitters
Yainer Diaz again! He is up to this line:
.275/.294/.521, 15 HR, 17 PA/HR, 13.4% Brl%, 17.6% K%, 2.4% BB%, .367 xwOBA
Over the last 60 days, only Realmuto has been a better 5x5 roto catcher, and actually they’re essentially tied at the top both earning $9.95 in this sample.
He leads the position in homers (last 60) and has added a nice 30 RBI and a .276 batting average. It will be very interesting to see how the Astros set him up for next season. The bat seems like one that needs to be in the lineup - but maybe they don’t trust him with full-time catching yet.
The reason to doubt him is the lack of discipline he has. The guy just swings at everything.
People will decry his chase rate, but he only chases so much just because he swings so much. Only 7 hitters are swinging more at pitches in the zone:
Z-Swing%
Seager 82.8%
Tatis Jr. 81.8%
Tovar 79.8%
Arroyo 79.4%
Harper 78.9%
Perez 78.6%
Moniak 78.4%
Y Diaz 78.2%
JD Davis 78.2%
Albies 77.6%
Corey Seager is absolutely incredible. He leads the league in zone swing rate, while maintaining a better-than-average chase rate. That dude is special.
In terms of the “Swing Decision” metric I’ve been using (this is the % of your total swings that are at pitches in the strike zone), Yainer is in the bottom 10 there as well.
Javier Baez 55.2%
Perez 56.3%
Bethancourt 56.4%
Elly De La Cruz 57.1%
H Castro 58.6%
Jimenez 58.7%
E Rosario 59.8%
Y Diaz 59.9%
Altuve 60.3%
There aren’t many good batting averages on this list. If you’re swinging this much, you are bound to put a lot of balls in play on bad pitches - which will result in weak contact. It also keeps your OBP way down because you’re just not going to draw any walks swinging that much.
But Diaz clearly swings the bat very hard and keeps the GB% down (43%).
So he’s quite useful as a catcher in fantasy, but I would think there could be some rough patches ahead for him.
Some positive signs lately for Brennan, Torkelson, and Seiya Suzuki - all running pretty cold in terms of xwOBA vs. wOBA.
It seems like Suzuki basically lost his starting job, but if he gets into the lineup every day I still have hopes that he can be a useful hitter. If nothing else, I think he’ll be a good speculative pick for next year - since he should be basically free.
Torkelson is also on the Brl% leaders here. Since the break:
108 PA, .208/.387/.406, 5 HR, 17.1% Brl%, 25% K%, 10% BB%,
.306 wOBA vs. .360 xwOBA
.208 AVG vs. .247 xBA
He’s a buy right now. It might be past your trade deadline, but Torkelson could also be available on waivers. Detroit is still not a great place to hit (45% Brl/HR is four points below the league average), but it’s not a total killer like it was in years past. I think he’ll be a fantastic pick for 2024 as well, we’ve seen some really strong growth from him this season.
One more guy to note, our old friends Mike Moustakas. Since joining the Angels:
.285/.314/.500, 7 HR, 19.6 PA/HR, 8.3% Brl%, 25.5% K%
The bad news is a low .274 xwOBA - so it seems like he’s been pretty lucky. Nobody is adding Moose in fantasy, but I don’t know - I think he deserved a shout-out. He and I are close personal friends and he reads the notes every day.
Multiple Barrels
Max Kepler (MIN) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Yainer Diaz (HOU) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 115.2mph - field_out
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.5mph - double
Amed Rosario (LAD) - 110.5mph - single
Riley Greene (DET) - 110.3mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 110.2mph - double
Lars Nootbaar (STL) - 110.1mph - double
Adam Duvall (BOS) - 109.9mph - single
Harold Ramirez (TB) - 109.9mph - field_out
George Springer (TOR) - 109.3mph - single
Josh Palacios (PIT) - 109.1mph - field_out
I was joking about Moustakas and me being boys
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 79 PA, 0.183 wOBA, 0.375 xwOBA, 0.192 Diff
Paul DeJong - 64 PA, 0.138 wOBA, 0.225 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Will Brennan - 62 PA, 0.25 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Salvador Perez - 74 PA, 0.263 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Yoan Moncada - 56 PA, 0.238 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Michael Conforto - 57 PA, 0.23 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 67 PA, 0.241 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Paul Goldschmidt - 80 PA, 0.275 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, 0.054 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 58 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, 0.054 Diff
Bottom 10
Whit Merrifield - 83 PA, 0.374 wOBA, 0.248 xwOBA, -0.126 Diff
Freddie Freeman - 85 PA, 0.565 wOBA, 0.441 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Jose Siri - 55 PA, 0.286 wOBA, 0.163 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff
Mike Moustakas - 74 PA, 0.386 wOBA, 0.266 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Hunter Renfroe - 77 PA, 0.352 wOBA, 0.233 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Jose Altuve - 59 PA, 0.478 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Kyle Isbel - 57 PA, 0.335 wOBA, 0.225 xwOBA, -0.11 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 65 PA, 0.438 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
TJ Friedl - 71 PA, 0.35 wOBA, 0.249 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 60 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Nolan Gorman - 56 PA, 33 BIP, 9 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 48 PA, 33 BIP, 9 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 50 PA, 26 BIP, 7 Brls, 26.9 Brl%
Ryan Jeffers - 48 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 73 PA, 53 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 73 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 69 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 65 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 50 PA, 0.538 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 62 PA, 0.459 xwOBA
Gary Sanchez - 48 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 67 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 73 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 85 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 85 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 75 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 82 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Brandon Marsh - 45 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Myles Straw - 49 PA, 106 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 71 PA, 133 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Lars Nootbaar - 75 PA, 93 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 72 PA, 164 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 50 PA, 91 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 54 PA, 90 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 135 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 72 PA, 136 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 53 PA, 85 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 84 PA, 131 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Bobby Witt Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
TJ Friedl - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Luis Robert - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Altuve - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Chris Taylor - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 14 Attempts (14 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
TJ Friedl - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Luis Robert - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
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