MLB Daily Notes - August 12th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Pitchers - Yesterday
So many interesting SP performances yesterday, I’m going to try to touch on as many of them as I can find time for.
Jon Gray bounced back in a big way with seven brilliant innings allowing just two hits and no walks. A 16.1% SwStr% led to seven strikeouts, it was great to see. The guy does have an elite slider, and he threw it 42% of the time yesterday for a 29.7% SwStr%. The key for him is just to locate the fastball so it doesn’t get annihilated - I think he’s going to have some very good starts down the stretch - but probably some more bad ones. For the year he’s at a bad 12.8% K-BB% but a solid enough 3.51 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. So he’s fine.
Lance Lynn kept up the success with the Dodgers. As mentioned in the DFS preview yesterday, it was just a dream spot for him at home against the Rockies, and things went as expected. 18 whiffs, a 19.1% SwStr%, and a 55.3% Strike%. Nine strikeouts, one walk. Good stuff. But we’ve seen short-term runs of success from him this year and it’s turned bad every time, but I’m still going to just start a dude with a 19.3% K-BB% on the year and an elite offense behind him.
Chris Sale threw 58 pitches but it was a positive result with a 20% SwStr% and a 7:0 K:BB. You should be feeling good about using him for the rest of the year.
Blake Snell did the Blake Snell thing once again, he is nothing if not predictable! 7:4 K:BB on a 16.3% SwStr%, and he got through six innings since he only gave up two hits.
He’s a pretty unique case, but he clusters together with Edward Cabrera and Michael Kopech on the Ball vs. Strike stuff:
You don’t love to see that, but the thing that separates Snell is how tough his pitches are to square up even when he throws them in the zone.
Charlie Morton walked seven! A 50.5% Ball%! Half of his pitches went for balls - that’s something we almost never see. In fact, we’ve seen it just 11 times this year out of 3,192 qualified starts:
That’s pretty out of character for Morton, so it was probably just a one-off for him, but man you hate to see that. This is not a successful list of pitchers. For the year now he’s at a 39% Ball, just a couple of points above the league average. Nothing to worry about in this specific case, but I don’t think Morton is a must-start pitcher anymore.
If they ever give you a walk prop line on Michael Kopech, you should probably just take it. He has a 14.5% BB% on the year and the White Sox don’t even care, they just need dudes to cover innings for the next two months so they’re going to let him go out and let it rip.
He has 39 walks in 38.1 innings since June 16th.
That’s more walks than strikeouts, he’s the only qualified pitcher in the league to have a negative K-BB% since June 13th. Ridiculous stuff.
Andrew Abbott went for a 9:0 K:BB but the whiffs weren’t really there at a 10.2% SwStr%. But whatever, he threw for a 54.1% Strike% and the Pirates couldn’t do anything about it. He’s just a guy you start. His FB% has come down from the 45% - as expected, but he still leads the league in FB%
Abbott 39%
Javier 38%
Sears 38%
Cortes 36%
Ober 36%
Pivetta 36%
Wells 36%
H Greene 36%
Kopech 36%
C Anderson 35%
Reid Detmers is struggling again. He went for just an 8.3% SwStr% and a gross 33.3% Strike%. The ball was at just 39.6%, so that means the BIP% was through the roof. He gave up seven hits and seven runs in just 2.1 innings. That’s two straight starts giving up seven earned runs and he’s gone for just a 4:5 K:BB since then. He decided to fall apart right as the Angels were deciding to buy at the deadline and go for the playoffs, so that wasn’t very nice of him!
I think you just hold on for now, but another bad start ort two and you should probably bail - he’s yet to prove himself to be a reliably good pitcher.
Much like Detmers, Jesus Luzardo is left-handed and was pitching like an ace until the last couple of weeks. He got shelled for nine hits and seven earned runs in 3.1 innings. The 8.2% SwStr% was way down and the Ball% was up at 41%. That’s three pretty bad starts for him now, giving up 15 runs in his last 13.1 innings with a 13:6 K:BB and five homers allowed. I feel a little better about him than Detmers since he’s still getting whiffs at a decent rate (14.8% since July 1st), and his problems have been more about giving up the long ball than just not having any command - but Luzardo is not the fantasy ace we thought he might have been becoming three weeks ago.
I guess we just can’t trust young left-handed pitchers. Just don’t do it, being left-handed is weird.
And then 2023 Adam Wainwright is one of the worst pitchers we've seen in recent memory. He threw 39 pitches without getting a whiff and gave up nine hits and eight runs while lasting just one inning. For the year:
14 GS, 6.0% SwStr%
11.8% K%
7.6% BB%
11.7% Brl%
.408 xwOBA
.394 BABIP
40% GB%
38% FB%
65 Stuff+
This is a DFS stacking dream. A guy that has horrible stuff but throws a bunch of pitches in the strike zone. Maybe he won’t even make it to his next turn in the rotation, but if he does - go after him. The problem there is that the field knows - the Royals were extremely high owned last night even in KC.
Okay now to the reports:
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jon Gray (vs. SF): 32.55 Points
2. Lance Lynn (vs. COL): 30.25 Points
3. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. BAL): 29.1 Points
4. Andrew Abbott (vs. PIT): 28.36 Points
5. Blake Snell (vs. ARI): 23.9 Points
6. Justin Verlander (vs. LAA): 21.9 Points
7. Chris Sale (vs. DET): 19.91 Points
8. Javier Assad (vs. TOR): 18.75 Points
9. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. MIN): 18.1 Points
10. George Soriano (vs. NYY): 17.26 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Lance Lynn (LAD): 18 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
2. Luis Castillo (SEA): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
3. Blake Snell (SD): 16 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 14 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
5. Jon Gray (TEX): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
6. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Justin Verlander (HOU): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 12 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
9. Chris Sale (BOS): 12 Whiffs (58 Pitches)
10. Jose Berrios (TOR): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale (BOS): 58.6 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
2. Lance Lynn (LAD): 55.3 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
3. Brent Headrick (MIN): 55.2 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
4. Justin Verlander (HOU): 54.7 Strike%, 27.4 Ball%
5. Chris Murphy (BOS): 54.4 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
6. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 54.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
7. Jon Gray (TEX): 51.7 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
8. Luis Castillo (SEA): 48.5 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
9. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 48.4 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
10. Jimmy Yacabonis (NYM): 48.1 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
11. Blake Snell (SD): 48.0 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%
12. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 47.9 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
13. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 46.7 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
14. Austin Gomber (COL): 46.2 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
15. Jose Berrios (TOR): 46.2 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Chris Murphy's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 90.1
Tylor Megill's CU velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 78.7
Chris Murphy's FF velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 95.6
Blake Snell's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 79.5
Tylor Megill's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 86.7
Michael Kopech's FF velo (60 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 93.5
Randy Vasquez's FC velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 86.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Angel Zerpa's FF usage (39.7%) up 23.0 points
Austin Gomber's SL usage (33.3%) up 14.9 points
Jake Bird's FC usage (27.5%) up 12.1 points
Jake Bird's SL usage (13.7%) up 10.6 points
Jesus Luzardo's CH usage (31.5%) up 10.5 points
Jimmy Yacabonis's ST usage (35.2%) up 11.5 points
Jimmy Yacabonis's CH usage (18.5%) up 13.4 points
Johan Oviedo's FF usage (55.9%) up 20.5 points
Lance Lynn's FF usage (52.1%) up 10.2 points
Lance Lynn's SL usage (19.1%) up 14.1 points
Randy Vasquez's CH usage (25.9%) up 14.9 points
Ryne Nelson's CU usage (16.4%) up 11.0 points
Tylor Megill's CU usage (19.0%) up 10.9 points
Zack Thompson's FC usage (37.0%) up 32.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +24.8%
Ryan Walker Slider: +22.5%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -22.5%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +20.1%
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +19.6%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -16.9%
Mike Clevinger Changeup: +16.9%
Zack Greinke 4-Seam Fastball: +16.7%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -16.7%
Yonny Chirinos Slider: -16.6%
Bryce Elder Sinker: +15.7%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.7%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +15.0%
Eury Perez Slider: +14.9%
Johan Oviedo Slider: -14.9%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -14.8%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +14.3%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -14.1%
Michael Grove 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
Bailey Falter Slider: +13.6%
Kenta Maeda 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +13.4%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.3%
Bailey Ober 4-Seam Fastball: +13.3%
Brennan Bernardino Curveball: -13.0%
Brennan Bernardino Sinker: +13.0%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.9%
Brandon Pfaadt Sweeper: +12.9%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Ross Stripling Changeup: +12.8%
Adrian Houser Slider: +12.8%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -12.8%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Bobby Miller Slider: -12.3%
Luis Medina Sinker: +12.2%
Zach Eflin Sinker: -12.0%
Ross Stripling 4-Seam Fastball: -12.0%
Luke Weaver Changeup: -12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 39.0% CSW%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 76 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 83 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Reese Olson - 72 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Bryce Miller - 71 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 73 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 71 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 49.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
George Kirby - 65 TBF, 32.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 30.9% K%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 30.6% K%
Blake Snell - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%
Nick Pivetta - 87 TBF, 29.9% K%
Bryce Miller - 71 TBF, 29.6% K%
Kenta Maeda - 89 TBF, 29.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 46.3% K-BB%
George Kirby - 65 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Bryce Miller - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 65 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 66 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 71 TBF, 65.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 91 TBF, 64.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 85 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Brayan Bello - 78 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 77 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 91 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 81 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 74 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Andrew Heaney - 63 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 56.1% GB%
Chase Silseth - 44 TBF, 36.4 K%, 2.3 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Cole Ragans - 50 TBF, 38.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Domingo German - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
George Kirby - 65 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.6 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Jesse Scholtens - 59 TBF, 28.8 K%, 3.4 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 32.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Nick Martinez - 53 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.7 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 1.4 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Zac Gallen - 78 TBF, 28.2 K%, 6.4 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Zack Thompson - 47 TBF, 34.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Ross Stripling - +4.7% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Matt Manning - +3.0% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +4.0% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +7.5% CSW%, -6.0 BB%
Adrian Houser - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Drew Smyly - +4.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Michael Grove - +6.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Cole Ragans - +9.5% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Jordan Weems - +2.9% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Jake Burger (MIA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR
Jon Singleton (HOU) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Michael Harris II (ATL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Wander Franco (TB) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Will Benson, Yesterday: 108.1 Previous High: 107.7
Yainer Diaz, Yesterday: 110.9 Previous High: 110.8
Hardest Hit Balls
Gary Sanchez (SD) - 115.0mph - field_out
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 114.6mph - field_out
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 113.8mph - home_run
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 113.7mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 113.5mph - single
Nolan Jones (COL) - 113.3mph - double
Joc Pederson (SF) - 113.3mph - field_out
William Contreras (MIL) - 113.1mph - single
Jake Burger (MIA) - 112.8mph - double
Heliot Ramos (SF) - 112.7mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 79 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.168 Diff
Aaron Judge - 55 PA, 0.434 wOBA, 0.551 xwOBA, 0.117 Diff
Paul DeJong - 63 PA, 0.127 wOBA, 0.222 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff
Will Brennan - 64 PA, 0.242 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Michael Conforto - 55 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 58 PA, 0.327 wOBA, 0.39 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 70 PA, 0.217 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Willy Adames - 74 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 78 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Bottom 10
Johan Rojas - 55 PA, 0.351 wOBA, 0.212 xwOBA, -0.139 Diff
Lars Nootbaar - 78 PA, 0.539 wOBA, 0.422 xwOBA, -0.117 Diff
Hunter Renfroe - 76 PA, 0.356 wOBA, 0.239 xwOBA, -0.117 Diff
Jose Altuve - 65 PA, 0.493 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 83 PA, 0.374 wOBA, 0.263 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Mike Moustakas - 74 PA, 0.358 wOBA, 0.251 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Kyle Isbel - 57 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.235 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 69 PA, 0.443 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 79 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
TJ Friedl - 74 PA, 0.367 wOBA, 0.268 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Gary Sanchez - 52 PA, 33 BIP, 10 Brls, 30.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 55 PA, 27 BIP, 8 Brls, 29.6 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 61 PA, 33 BIP, 9 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 69 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 66 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 73 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 79 PA, 58 BIP, 13 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 77 PA, 54 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Jake Bauers - 61 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 55 PA, 0.551 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 65 PA, 0.465 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 68 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 85 PA, 0.455 xwOBA
Wander Franco - 75 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 77 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Gary Sanchez - 52 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 85 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 75 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Michael Harris II - 68 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Keibert Ruiz - 72 PA, 132 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Lars Nootbaar - 78 PA, 95 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 57 PA, 91 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Myles Straw - 50 PA, 111 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 48 PA, 78 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 77 PA, 145 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 84 PA, 135 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 134 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 79 PA, 116 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 73 PA, 171 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Dairon Blanco - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
TJ Friedl - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Altuve - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Lane Thomas - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Chris Taylor - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Luis Robert - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Lane Thomas - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Luis Robert - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
TJ Friedl - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
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