MLB Daily Notes - August 13th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Pitchers - Yesterday
Gavin Williams went off for 19 whiffs and ten strikeouts in five innings (87 pitches). The 21.8% SwStr% was elite, and now he’s done that two times in a row.
That’s a 22:1 K:BB in the last two starts. But the problem with looking at two starts is that you’re only looking at two starts.
The one thing we can say is that his fastball is very good, and that’s a hugely important thing for a pitcher. We see over and over against these young pitchers with a great secondary pitch but an inability to success with their primary fastball. That’s not the case with Williams.
Only these SPs have a higher SwStr% on their four-seamer (500 minimum)
Luis Castillo 19.5%
George Kiby 18.0%
Lance Lynn 17.3%
Pablo Lopez 17.2%
Sandy Alcantara 16.5%
Spencer Strider 16.4%
Joe Ryan 16.4%
Kutter Crawford 16.2%
Bailey Ober 15.6%
Bryce Miller 15.5%
Zack Wheeler 15.2%
That’s a very good thing, and Williams is someone we should be pretty aggressive on next season.
Spencer Strider pitched last night and had a weirdly bad 6:4 K:BB. But everything else fell into place with seven shutout innings and he still posted a 17.1% SwStr%.
Two of his four highest Ball% have been in his last two starts, and since the all-star break he’s been a bit more down to earth with a 27.6% K-BB% and a 53%-33% Strike%-Ball%. Still elite stuff in that regard, but maybe - just maybe, these innings are taking a toll on his arm.
Sandy Alcantara led the day in fantasy point scoring getting through another complete game with 10 strikeouts. He now has a 4.15 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP on the year. But in his last eight starts it’s a 2.75 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and a 19.5% K-BB%. He’s been better as the year has gone on, maybe making some tweaks after the bad start to the year that have been beneficial.
Cole Ragans was a bit wild with four walks and a 38.7% Ball%, but still did show off the whiff stuff with a 16.1% SwStr% on 93 pitches. It wasn’t the worst start in the world but certainly wasn’t what we were hoping for in the second half of the two-start stream week.
I’m probably going to hold on to him after what we saw on Monday. His next two should be against the Cubs and Mariners - both middle-of-the-road matchups with I’m fine with.
George Kirby threw nine innings but it wasn’t a complete game because they decided to play 10 innings in that game. So he threw nine-tenths of the game for the Mariners. That’s still a lot. Three hits, seven strikeouts, no walks.
His K% for the year is now 23%. Since June it’s 25%. Since July it’s 27%! So that’s an UP TREND. The increased four-seam usage might have something to do with that, or maybe not - who knows!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sandy Alcantara (vs. NYY): 38.05 Points
2. Allan Winans (vs. NYM): 34.15 Points
3. George Kirby (vs. BAL): 32.45 Points
4. Zac Gallen (vs. SD): 30.5 Points
5. Pablo Lopez (vs. PHI): 28.5 Points
6. Spencer Strider (vs. NYM): 27.55 Points
7. Gavin Williams (vs. TB): 26.25 Points
8. Tony Gonsolin (vs. COL): 25.7 Points
9. J.P. France (vs. LAA): 22.75 Points
10. Cole Irvin (vs. SEA): 21.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 19 Whiffs (116 Pitches)
2. Gavin Williams (CLE): 19 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
3. Spencer Strider (ATL): 18 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
4. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 18 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
6. Cole Ragans (KC): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. George Kirby (SEA): 15 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
8. Allan Winans (ATL): 15 Whiffs (111 Pitches)
9. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 13 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
10. Peter Lambert (COL): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Irvin (BAL): 61.2 Strike%, 22.4 Ball%
2. Allan Winans (ATL): 57.7 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
3. Rich Hill (SD): 56.6 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
4. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 55.6 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
5. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 54.9 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
6. Zac Gallen (ARI): 53.1 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
7. Gavin Williams (CLE): 52.9 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
8. Jhony Brito (NYY): 52.2 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
9. Brayan Bello (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
10. Steven Matz (STL): 50.0 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
11. Alex Wood (SF): 50.0 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
12. George Kirby (SEA): 49.5 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
13. J.P. France (HOU): 49.0 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
14. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 48.9 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
15. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 48.3 Strike%, 33.6 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Cole Irvin's CH velo (22 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 86.1
Jake Irvin's CU velo (30 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 82.8
Justin Steele's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 85.0
Tyler Anderson's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.0
George Kirby's SI velo (18 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 97.3
Gavin Williams's FF velo (56 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.1
Erasmo Ramirez's SI velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.2
Taijuan Walker's FC velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.9
Denyi Reyes's FC velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.2
Taijuan Walker's FS velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.4
Taijuan Walker's FF velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.2
Taijuan Walker's SI velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 90.6
Denyi Reyes's FF velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 90.5
Denyi Reyes's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 83.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cole Irvin's CH usage (32.8%) up 11.6 points
Cole Ragans's SL usage (24.7%) up 23.0 points
Jose Quintana's FF usage (40.4%) up 16.5 points
Matt Manning's FF usage (56.7%) up 10.4 points
Pedro Avila's SI usage (20.4%) up 11.4 points
Peter Lambert's SL usage (31.8%) up 13.8 points
Reed Garrett's FF usage (54.5%) up 11.0 points
Reed Garrett's FS usage (38.6%) up 20.9 points
Rich Hill's FC usage (28.9%) up 13.2 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +24.8%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -24.2%
Ryan Walker Slider: +22.5%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -22.5%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +20.1%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +19.8%
Peter Lambert Slider: +18.2%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -16.9%
Mike Clevinger Changeup: +16.9%
Zack Greinke 4-Seam Fastball: +16.7%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -16.7%
Yonny Chirinos Slider: -16.6%
Bryce Elder Sinker: +15.7%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.7%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +15.0%
Eury Perez Slider: +14.9%
Johan Oviedo Slider: -14.9%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -14.8%
Peter Lambert 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +14.3%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -14.1%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
Bailey Falter Slider: +13.6%
Kenta Maeda 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +13.4%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.3%
Bailey Ober 4-Seam Fastball: +13.3%
Brennan Bernardino Sinker: +13.0%
Brennan Bernardino Curveball: -13.0%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.9%
Brandon Pfaadt Sweeper: +12.9%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -12.8%
Adrian Houser Slider: +12.8%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Bobby Miller Slider: -12.3%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Zach Eflin Sinker: -12.0%
Luke Weaver Changeup: -12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 76 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 96 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 83 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Reese Olson - 72 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 73 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Bryce Miller - 71 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 71 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 99 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 40.2% K%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Sonny Gray - 73 TBF, 31.5% K%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 30.9% K%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 30.6% K%
Blake Snell - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%
Nick Pivetta - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 29.8% K%
Zac Gallen - 101 TBF, 29.7% K%
Bryce Miller - 71 TBF, 29.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 31.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 73 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Bryce Miller - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 101 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 75 TBF, 67.8% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 71 TBF, 65.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 91 TBF, 64.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 77 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Brayan Bello - 99 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 72 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 71 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 74 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 76 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 29.8 K%, 3.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 30.0 K%, 7.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Nick Martinez - 53 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.7 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.1 BB%, 52.2% GB%
Zac Gallen - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Ross Stripling - +4.7% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Cole Ragans - +7.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +4.0% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +7.5% CSW%, -6.0 BB%
Adrian Houser - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Drew Smyly - +4.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Michael Grove - +6.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Hitters
Yes, a bunch of Braves hit homers yesterday. They scored 27 runs between two games. If your draft strategy was just to draft Braves hitters, you did pretty well - although I don’t think it would’ve been possible in most leagues to get Acuna+Riley+Olson+Albies to start. What a juggernaut.
Spencer Torkelson also made good on some of that bad luck lately, racking up four hits with two barrels and a dinger.
Shohei Ohtani has now gone eight games without a homer, but he did hit a 118 mph double last night. That’s his longest game streak of the year without a homer, and it’s cost him in the league HR lead (to Olson), what a shame.
Hitters
Maybe it’s time we say something bad about Fernando Tatis Jr.? He’s hitting just .260/.312/.469 this year. That’s a .782 OPS. As we have discussed, the .369 xwOBA shows that he’s been better than this - but this is 442 PAs with a sub-.800 OPS and it’s after a drug suspension, multiple injuries, and surgery.
The numbers are still good across the board, but he’s quite a ways down from the lofty heights of 2019-2021.
Brl%, EV, and xwOBA are way down. They still aren’t bad marks, but they’re down. He really separated himself with how insanely, consistently hard he hits the ball back then - and he’s not doing that now.
Maybe he’s still getting fully healthy and he’ll return to that - but I don’t know, he doesn’t seem like an obvious top-five pick if we were drafting today.
Seiya Suzuki is also trying to hit his way back into the lineup. In a very short 21 PA sample in August he’s got a .450 xwOBA and a 1.181 OPS. Keep an eye on the playing time there, if he’s back as an every day player I’d be interested in again in deeper leagues.
Basically, my home league outfield has just been depleted and I’m desperately hoping I can find someone for the playoffs. I’m currently starting Bader, Happ, Benson, and Moniak. Trout and Starling Marte are on my IL, so there’s some hope there - but it’s a bad situation as I barrel toward yet another playoff berth. Much more to come on that, as I will once again be covering the playoffs in depth right here. Stupid Ass Clint is in last place - karma for knocking me out last year, no doubt. Shout out to Stupid Ass Clint and the readers from last year who remember Stupid Ass Clint.
Multiple Barrels
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 10 PA, 25 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) 11 PA, 25 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ozzie Albies (ATL) 11 PA, 18 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Tommy Edman (STL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Yandy Diaz (TB) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Ozzie Albies, Yesterday: 112.4 Previous High: 111.4
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 118.3mph - double
Ozzie Albies (ATL) - 112.4mph - foul
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.1mph - foul
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.6mph - single
Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 111.5mph - single
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 110.9mph - double
Heliot Ramos (SF) - 110.1mph - home_run
Michael Conforto (SF) - 109.6mph - single
Cedric Mullins II (BAL) - 109.5mph - foul
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 109.5mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 78 PA, 0.188 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.18 Diff
Aaron Judge - 59 PA, 0.42 wOBA, 0.536 xwOBA, 0.116 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 57 PA, 0.301 wOBA, 0.389 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Paul DeJong - 59 PA, 0.135 wOBA, 0.219 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 69 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Willy Adames - 74 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Mark Vientos - 61 PA, 0.231 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Will Brennan - 61 PA, 0.239 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 82 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 75 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Bottom 10
Jose Altuve - 70 PA, 0.511 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, -0.141 Diff
Johan Rojas - 55 PA, 0.351 wOBA, 0.212 xwOBA, -0.139 Diff
Kyle Isbel - 58 PA, 0.367 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Mike Moustakas - 73 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.238 xwOBA, -0.117 Diff
Hunter Renfroe - 75 PA, 0.352 wOBA, 0.238 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 88 PA, 0.376 wOBA, 0.262 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Marcus Semien - 81 PA, 0.414 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 67 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Christian Walker - 72 PA, 0.397 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Jeimer Candelario - 78 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Gary Sanchez - 52 PA, 33 BIP, 10 Brls, 30.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 59 PA, 30 BIP, 8 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 61 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 67 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 78 PA, 57 BIP, 13 Brls, 22.8 Brl%
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Max Kepler - 70 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 80 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Jake Bauers - 65 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 59 PA, 0.536 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 90 PA, 0.464 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 68 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 82 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Wander Franco - 76 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Gary Sanchez - 52 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 70 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
James Outman - 68 PA, 0.418 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 80 PA, 0.415 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 65 PA, 0.415 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Myles Straw - 51 PA, 105 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 73 PA, 129 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 81 PA, 151 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 78 PA, 120 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 85 PA, 137 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 133 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 56 PA, 87 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 74 PA, 118 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 72 PA, 164 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Alec Burleson - 46 PA, 101 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Dairon Blanco - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
TJ Friedl - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Altuve - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Chris Taylor - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ozzie Albies - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Lane Thomas - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Tommy Pham - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Luis Robert - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 16 Attempts (15 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (13 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Lane Thomas - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Luis Robert - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
TJ Friedl - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
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