MLB Daily Notes - August 14th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
So the strikeout props have gone cold and are now -2.5 units for the year. So that’s just awful, I should probably go in there and change all the numbers to make it look better.
The walk props are still strong at +11 units on the year, but that’s been on the descend a bit as well, -5 units this month.
As for the newly minted H+R+RBI props, those have a really nice win rate (33-20), but the average odds taken is -120 so we’re giving up a lot of juice. But they’re +4.2 units on 53 bets.
The question is for sports bettors - is it worth it? At the very best we can make a very small ROI, and at worst we’re losing money - and nobody likes to lose money! But I guess most all forms of entertainment cost money, so this could be one of that you can do for free/slight profit, so I get it. Anyways, it’s been fun for me to develop and track, and we’ll continue with that.
I am drinking hot coffee today because I’m incapable of making good-tasting cold brew. I worked in downtown Pittsburgh until March 2020 (something happened that month but I’m forgetting what it was…), and I would always just get a coffee from down there or use the machines at work - but then I began WFH full time (and I’ve never gone back), so the first week of all of that I bought one of these things from Giant Eagle (shout out people who know what Giant Eagle is):
It was $5 and lasted 3-4 days, so it wasn’t crazy expensive (I mean still more than you should probably be paying for coffee, but it was delicious). I drank that stuff almost every day for 3+ years, and over those three years it went from $5 to $7. It is 40% more expensive now, just insane stuff. Let me know what President I’m supposed to blame for that.
So in like June, I had this revelation that I’m spending something like $15/week on freaking coffee and that’s a disaster. With any other option that can be like $3. So I bought a cold brew make thing and tried it out, but the stuff I was making just wasn’t good, and now I’m mad and not using it anymore. Maybe it was the grounds I was buying, admittedly I did start with a 3-pound thing of Costco coffee, so it’s not surprising that it didn’t make for the best cold brew. So if anybody makes their own cold brew at home and likes it - let me know what grounds you’re using and I’ll try that out before fully reverting back to just spending a stupid amount of money on coffee that I don’t need.
Alternatively I could just be a man and go back to hot black coffee this morning. I could make one of those 3-pound daddies last like a month or more I’m sure and that would result in like 50 cents per day or less, so that’s the obvious choice - but man I love the taste of that Starbucks stuff.
I haven’t gone on nearly as many rants about other stuff in these notes this year as compared to last year, but maybe for the last two months here I’ll waste more words. But we should stop for today.
Pitchers - Yesterday
The Rockies are a disaster and they allowed Julio Urias to have the second-best start of his season
He had 22 whiffs, which is a TON for him. His previous season high was 16, and he had gone above 15 just four times. He went for a 64.8% Strike% and a 12:0 K:BB. That’s the second-best Strike% of the season.
Strider 4/24 vs. MIA: 66.3%
Urias 8/13 vs. COL: 64.8%
Strider 4/12 vs. CIN: 64.3%
Springs 4/2 vs. DET: 64.2%
Bryce Miller 8/6 vs. LAA: 63.5%
Every single Strike% above 62% has resulted in at least 9 strikeouts, and it’s a collective 65:3 K:BB in those starts. Pitching is pretty simple, really, all you have to do is get a bunch of strikes. I don’t see why people have trouble with it!
The Rockies are hitting .193/.251/.321 this month with a 32% K% and a 6% BB%. Most of that has been on the road, and they’re home now for a week - so these numbers will improve, but there’s no getting around that this is a pathetic lineup. I would not hesitate to start good pitchers in Coors, because that lineup really is going to offset some of the advantage that the park brings. And on the road - forget about it, stream almost anybody against them.
Eury Perez had a big 23.2% SwStr% but that was the end of the good news. He had a super high 43% Ball% and went just four innings on 82 pitches with a 5:2 K:BB. There’s more to pitching than just having swing-and-miss stuff, and Perez still has some work to do. The future is insanely bright with him, but I don’t think you have to own and start him for the rest of this season. I don’t think you’ll really regret the drop at this point since he’s capped around 80 pitches. He can (and probably will) still have some very good starts even with 75 pitches, but it’s a lot tougher to have a very useful fantasy start if you can’t get through the 5th/6th inning.
And then Dane Dunning popped off again for 23 whiffs. That was a season-high for him, and so was the pitch count (106). The 21.7% SwStr% was the firs time he had gone above 16%. It was a huge game for him, a 12:0 K:BB.
I don't understand how this guy can do this. Three times now since June 28th he’s had 10+ strikeouts, but for the year his SwStr% is just 9.8% and the K% is down at 19%. He’s quite good at taking advantage of bad matchups. These three 10+ K games are against DET (6/28), CWS (8/2) and SF (yesterday).
The Giants are a sputtering offense as well, and definitely one to target moving forward. They are other with the Rockeis this month hitting .212/.283/.327 (.610 OPS).
Season: .238/.314/.390 (.704 OPS)
Since June: .229/.309/.363 (.672 OPS)
Since July: .210/.387/.338 (.625 OPS)
Hilariously, they are a playoff team if the season ended today.
They know how to pitch (3.91 team ERA, 9th best) and win at home (34-26).
I think Jose Urquidy deserves some adds. Pitching has been rough this year, and now with a lot of these rookies fading - it’s very tough to find reliable arms on waivers - and I think Urquidy offers us something there. He was really bad in his first start returning from the IL, but bounced back yesterday tiha a solid line
5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 0 BB
He has made just 8 starts this year due to injury, but he has a career-best 14.6% SwStr%. It hasn’t generated strikeouts with just a 20% K%, but that separation can’t maintain.
A reminder about SwStr% and K% relations:
You see Urquidy there on the left and about half way up. There’s a distinct relationship here, and the formula ends being this (if you hover over that trend line in the plot):
Who needs those pesky sig digs (shout out to math). I did a little old-school ALGEBRA, so I hope this takes you all back to 10th grade:
Extrapolating from statistical models without sufficient data samples has never ended up poorly ever, so we can reliably say that one or both of these things is going to happen with Urquidy
His K% is going to shoot up
His SwStr% is going to shoot down
I would bet that both happen and he quickly comes down to like a 13% SwStr% and up to a 23% K%.
To do less math and more baseball:
The 13.5% SwStr% on his four-seamer is pretty hard to believe. Last season:
Big difference there down at 10.4%. But please notice that the usage is way down, meaning that even if the four-seamer SwStr% does come down to 11% - it won’t hurt him as much as you might think because he’s only throwing the pitch every third pitch.
The changeup was good last year, and it’s been great this year.
You see that the thing they called a slider last year is called a sweeper this year. The powers that be didn’t call anything a sweeper before this year, which leaves us in a pickle. We’re in the pickle because there are two options for why it’s a sweeper this year.
It’s always been a sweeper and is now being classified as such
He changed the movement on the pitch this year
If it’s the first point, then that’s bad news for Urquidy’s future because we would then have to say that he’s getting way more whiffs despite the pitching not changing - which would set him up for probable regression. If he really changed it - then that’s good because maybe it’s just better now.
We can answer this question, I guess, by going to the pitch movement tab in the 2022-2023 dashboard.
So the velo and spin are just about the same, the horizontal movement isn’t much different - but the vertical movement is much higher on the pitch he’s throwing this year. That’s weird because a sweeper is classified by its horizontal movement, at least that’s what I thought. Here are the league average movements (2023) on these pitch types:
So yeah the vertical isn’t much different but the horizontal is much greater on sweepers, but that’s not the case for Urquidy.
All of this is to say that I have no idea what is going on with Urquidy, but he should be picked up if you need a reliable arm down the stretch. He is getting way more whiffs this year, and maybe that’s not for real - but it might be, it might be.
Kyle Bradish for the year:
11.3% SwStr%, 46.3% Strike%, 36.0% Ball%, 23% K%, 7% BB%, .649 OPS
Since June:
11.4% SwStr%, 46.9% Strike%, 36% Ball%, 25% K%, 6.5% BB%, .613 OPS
Since July:
11.0% SwStr%, 45.7% Strike%, 36% Ball%, 24% K%, 7% BB%, .602 OPS
Don’t you love that when I break a dude down by time series but nothing really changes in the intervals?
I did that because I thought he was pitching better lately than his season, but that’s not the case - he’s been pretty much the same all year. But he had a good start yesterday:
6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB
Sweet slider, meh fastball. But the Strike% on his fastball duo is around league average, which will work if the slider continues to be great. You can be average with your right hand if you’re great with your left.
If my first son turns out to be an elite athlete and my second son turns out to be average (he currently has red hair, so…), that aggregates to making me a pretty great dad (all dads are judged by their sons’ athletic abilities - obviously). This is probably my best work of the season.
Chase Silseth more than survived against the Astros:
5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 K, 2 BB
But the other numbers were not encouraging:
84 pitches, 6 whiffs (7.1% SwStr%), 47.6% Strike%
The Strike% is average, but the whiffs were really low. That’s forgivable against the Astros, and he didn’t get hit hard (0 HR, .303 xwOBA, 21% FB%).
The guy’s freaking name is Chase, so the natural question is - does he have a good chase rate?
I don’t believe I even have Chase% stuff on the dashboard at all, which is tragic, but I whipped up a new Google Sheet that will be updated daily:
The leaders are mostly relievers:
And that’s kind of dumb so I’m altering it to put in a “GS” column as well so we can filter out these loser RPs.
URQUIDY!
Anyways, we’re here to talk about Silseth. The average Chase% for a starter this year is 14%. Silseth is at … drumroll please… 14%.
He’s average, which would be fine if his name wasn’t Chase! It’s like if Kutter Crawford didn’t have a cutter, it would just be an insult.
Anyways, here’s chase data on everybody named Chase:
My cousin Chase Anderson gets it for crying out loud! That guy sucks at everything else but he’ll be DAMNED if he’s not going to honor his name!
Alright things are getting a little bit out of hand here and it’s approaching 9:30, let’s move on.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Julio Urias (vs. COL): 35.35 Points
2. Dane Dunning (vs. SF): 33.55 Points
3. Sonny Gray (vs. PHI): 28.5 Points
4. Logan Webb (vs. TEX): 25.31 Points
5. Freddy Peralta (vs. CWS): 25.3 Points
6. Kodai Senga (vs. ATL): 21.9 Points
7. Chase Silseth (vs. HOU): 21.65 Points
8. Tanner Bibee (vs. TB): 21.55 Points
9. Dylan Cease (vs. MIL): 21.55 Points
10. Jose Urquidy (vs. LAA): 21.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dane Dunning (TEX): 23 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
2. Julio Urias (LAD): 22 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
3. Eury Perez (MIA): 19 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
4. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 18 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
5. Kodai Senga (NYM): 16 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
6. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 15 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
7. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 15 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 14 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
9. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 14 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
10. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Julio Urias (LAD): 64.8 Strike%, 21.6 Ball%
2. Dane Dunning (TEX): 56.6 Strike%, 28.3 Ball%
3. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 53.8 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
4. Andre Jackson (PIT): 51.3 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
5. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 51.1 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
6. Seth Lugo (SD): 50.6 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
7. Dylan Cease (CWS): 50.5 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
8. Mitch Keller (PIT): 50.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
9. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 50.0 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
10. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 49.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
11. Sonny Gray (MIN): 48.8 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%
12. Kodai Senga (NYM): 48.6 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
13. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 47.8 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
14. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 47.7 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
15. Chase Silseth (LAA): 47.6 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
The Pirates Andre Jackson threw 78 pitches yesterday after being in the bullpen for the full season. That was pretty surprising, and probably led to a very stupid projection in my model - I believe I had him for 40 pitches. But don’t worry, he wasn’t very good (11.5% SwStr%, 51% Strike%, .410 xwOBA).
He threw the curveball less, which wasn’t surprising since he knew he was going to be asked to throw 60+ pitches, so he had to throw more fastballs. He’s not worth talking about here other than to laugh at the fact that a bullpen guy the Dodgers DFA’d is now in the Pirates rotation… a sad state of affairs.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luke Weaver's FC velo (20 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 90.4
Huascar Brazoban's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 90.0
Yonny Chirinos's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 91.0
Freddy Peralta's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 78.7
Kodai Senga's FC velo (29 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 92.4
Andre Jackson's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 81.4
Jose Urquidy's ST velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 79.2
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 87.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andre Jackson's CU usage (12.8%) up 12.0 points
Bryce Miller's SI usage (21.2%) up 19.0 points
Bryce Miller's ST usage (18.8%) up 13.0 points
Chase Silseth's SI usage (25.0%) up 11.3 points
Dylan Cease's SL usage (53.6%) up 14.0 points
Eury Perez's SL usage (41.5%) up 10.2 points
Gerrit Cole's FC usage (22.2%) up 16.9 points
Kyle Freeland's SL usage (40.4%) up 17.5 points
Logan Webb's CH usage (62.6%) up 24.1 points
Sonny Gray's FF usage (45.0%) up 20.0 points
Trevor Williams's CH usage (27.2%) up 11.6 points
Yonny Chirinos's FS usage (34.7%) up 11.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +24.8%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -24.2%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -22.5%
Ryan Walker Slider: +22.5%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +19.8%
Logan Webb Sinker: -18.5%
Peter Lambert Slider: +18.2%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +18.2%
Mike Clevinger Changeup: +16.9%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -16.7%
Logan Webb Changeup: +16.3%
Bryce Elder Sinker: +15.7%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +15.0%
Johan Oviedo Slider: -14.9%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -14.8%
Peter Lambert 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +14.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -14.1%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Bailey Falter Slider: +13.6%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +13.6%
Kenta Maeda 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +13.4%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.3%
Bailey Ober 4-Seam Fastball: +13.3%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.9%
Adrian Houser Slider: +12.8%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -12.8%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +12.7%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Bobby Miller Slider: -12.3%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Dane Dunning is here with a 25% K-BB% over the last three weeks. So I don’t know what to say about the guy, I’m still not picking him up - but it’s not a crazy thing to do especially if he has some soft matchups ahead.
Our guy Silseth is on the MFQ list, so maybe he should change his name to MFQ Silseth.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 102 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 96 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Julio Urias - 93 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 83 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Reese Olson - 72 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 72 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 42.4% K%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 40.2% K%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0% K%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 30.9% K%
Touki Toussaint - 72 TBF, 30.6% K%
Blake Snell - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%
Nick Pivetta - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 29.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 37.0% K-BB%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 31.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 93 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 108 TBF, 65.5% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 71 TBF, 65.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 91 TBF, 64.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 77 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Brayan Bello - 99 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 72 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 98 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Yonny Chirinos - 86 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 71 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chase Silseth - 65 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.6 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.8 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 42.4 K%, 5.4 BB%, 43.8% GB%
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 29.8 K%, 3.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 30.0 K%, 7.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Nick Martinez - 60 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.1 BB%, 52.2% GB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Zac Gallen - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Freddy Peralta - +4.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Ken Waldichuk - +2.2% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Cole Ragans - +7.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +4.0% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Jose Berrios - +2.7% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Adrian Houser - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Ross Stripling - +4.3% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Jon Gray - +3.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Hitters
Bryan Reynolds swung the bat 22 times in two games yesterday, which is a lot - he must be tired. Those bats are heavy. Two barrels and two dingers from him yesterday. Here is how the Reynold season has probably gone for his owners:
The proper philosophical way to view it:
Sticking to the Pirates stuff, Jack Suwinski is on the cold list. Sometimes he goes, and sometimes he doesn’t.
He’s a little bit Gormanesque, with some really amazing streak and some absolutely dreadful ones, but overall it’s been a more than useful fantasy season, especially for where the guy got drafted. If you drafted him and just started him all year, you’re well ahead.
He’s #63 on the player rater right now, earning $11.54 with his 21 homers and eight steals. That’s more than these names:
Teoscar Hernandez, Jonathan India, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Steven Kwan, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Yes, that’s correct - first/second round pick Vlad Jr. has earned just $11.13 (the leader is Acuna Jr. at $30. Vlad’s line:
55 R, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 4 SB, .266 AVG
That’s just not a great roto fantasy player, it’s time to say it! Although, in fairness, his xBA is .303 - so there’s been some bad luck there. But even if you raise that up 20 points, 18 HRs + 4 SB isn’t doing it in this environment. Things are different in OBP/points leagues, but in a standard roto league you’re getting crushed by using one of your first two picks on him. It will be interesting to see how far he falls next year.
Okay seriously that’s enough of this, I’m done!