MLB Daily Notes - August 15th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
The answer I got from the community yesterday was to buy whole coffee beans and grind them myself, and then make the cold brew with that. So I’m going to try that. I don’t have a coffee grinder, but I do have a mallet.
Speaking of things you drink - I had my third Pumking last night since buying a case on Friday #HowRich.
Stuff is just unbelievably good, unless it’s not - this is a pretty subjective thing. I highly recommend it while also not recommending it all because it’s super expensive, so if you don’t know about it - don’t buy it. If you buy it, the worst case scenario is that you hate it - and the best case scenario is that you love it and then start spending a bunch of money on it that you didn’t have to. But seriously buy it.
Pitchers - Yesterday
The projections nailed the top two arms yesterday with Scherzer and Kelly both having big games.
Scherzer was his old self again with a 62% Strike% and a 20% SwStr%, striking out 11 Angels in seven innings while giving up just one hit and one walk. That was his best outing of the year and only the second time he’s gone for double-digit strikeouts. Here’s his up-to-date stat line:
127.2 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 28.4% K%, 6.8% BB%, 21.6% K-BB%
Still a very good line. A reminder that the league ERA is 4.33 - so he’s beating that significantly. The 22% K-BB% is still great, and overall you’re probably happy with what you’re getting from him given that you drafted him in the 3rd or 4th round most likely. He’s #15 on the player rater, so I guess that’s a little bit behind where he got drafted - but you certainly could have made a much worse pick than Max this year.
As for Merrill Kelly, he went for his highest SwStr% of the season, and it was in Coors Field. The 11 strikeouts were a season-high and the third time he’s gone for double-digits. The Rockies ended up beating up the Arizona bullpen and scoring six runs, so their offense doesn’t look terrible yesterday - but they couldn’t do anything against Kelly outside of two homers by Montero and Tovar in the 5th and 6th innings.
Here is how he attacked Colorado yesterday, splitting the cutter and four-seam usage very nicely with 24 each. Both of them went or a 25% SwStr% - which is ridiculous.
You shouldn’t be able to throw 48 fastballs and get 12 whiffs if you’re Merrill Kelly and in Coors Field, but that’s what the Rockies can do for you.
It’s been a really solid season for Kelly who continues to impress and improve with age (he’s 34):
Grayson Rodriguez had a big start, beating the Padres convincingly.
95 PC, 15.8% SwStr%, 50.5% Strike%, 31.6% Ball%, 6:1 K:BB
The four-seamer got hit hard with that .439 xwOBA, but he’s was missing bats with it way up there at 18.4% on the SwStr%, so this was a really great start. He does have huge velocity, so it shouldn’t be surprising to see him put up some higher SwStr% numbers with the fastball. For the year his four-seam SwStr% is high at 13.1% (league average is 10.7%), but not near the elite guys - and maybe he can get to the elite guys if he can command it a little bit better in the future. I’ll be very interested in him next draft season - although I’m sure I won’t be alone.
Logan Gilbert continues to go up and down. And writing “up and down” makes me think of that ridiculous Wheels on the Bus song that my kids sing, so now that’ll be in my head all morning.
The dots on Gilbert’s plot go UP and DOWN, UP and DOWN, UP and DOWN. Teh dots on Gilbert’s plot go UP and DOWN - ALLLL THROUGH THE TOOOWWWN.
Yesterday we talked about Suwinski and Gorman being guys that you’d be happy with if you just started them every week and ignored the streaks. That’s true with Gilbert as well, because for the year he’s at:
142 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 25% K%, 4.6% BB%
These are great numbers, but it doesn’t feel like he’s pitched that well, does it? It’s harder to deal mentally with the “inconsistent but overall good” with a starting pitcher since each of their games sticks out more. I mean we spend like triple the time talking about pitchers here than hitters - because one game just means so much more for a pitcher than a hitter (you could say five times more!).
But Gilbert is overall, very good, and I think he’ll be a really strong SP2 or SP3 pick for next season.
I need to stop talking about next season - it’s only August 15th!
Brady Singer did it yet again!
7.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB
The SwStr% came down to 12.3% but the Strike was solid at 50.9%. So what’s that mean? Called strikes!
For the year:
10.2% SwStr%
18.8% Called Strike%
Since July 1st:
11.9% SwStr%
18.1% Called Strike%
So he’s actually just getting more whiffs recently to fuel his success. In his last eight starts:
53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 21.7% K%, 4.7% BB%, 17% K-BB%
So that’s a pretty good line. The K% is still low, but so is the BB%. So I think he’s over-performing a little bit right now, but he was probably under-performing before then. I wouldn’t start trusting him right now for the rest of the year, but I suppose it’s pretty easy to say that you can pick him up and start him with some confidence if you’re in a bind.
Max Fried sucked against the Yankees with just a 4.8% SwStr% on 83 pitches. The Strike% was awful at 36.1%. He threw more balls than strikes and gave up eight hits. Clearly no command - I would probably drop him and quit fantasy baseball entirely - especially if your name is Paul.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (vs. LAA): 40.55 Points
2. Merrill Kelly (vs. COL): 27.9 Points
3. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. SD): 27.35 Points
4. Brady Singer (vs. SEA): 26.69 Points
5. Tyler Glasnow (vs. SF): 25.9 Points
6. Framber Valdez (vs. MIA): 15.06 Points
7. Yu Darvish (vs. BAL): 14.35 Points
8. Chris Flexen (vs. ARI): 13.9 Points
9. Braxton Garrett (vs. HOU): 13.65 Points
10. Max Fried (vs. NYY): 12.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 21 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
2. Max Scherzer (TEX): 20 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
3. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
4. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
5. Brady Singer (KC): 13 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
6. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. JP Sears (OAK): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 12 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
9. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 12 Whiffs (68 Pitches)
10. Griffin Canning (LAA): 11 Whiffs (70 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (TEX): 62.0 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
2. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 57.6 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
3. Yu Darvish (SD): 55.6 Strike%, 18.5 Ball%
4. Osvaldo Bido (PIT): 53.7 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
5. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 52.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
6. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 51.7 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
7. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 51.1 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%
8. Brady Singer (KC): 50.9 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
9. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 50.5 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
10. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 48.5 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
11. Miles Mikolas (STL): 47.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
12. JP Sears (OAK): 47.4 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
13. Chris Flexen (COL): 45.8 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
14. Griffin Canning (LAA): 45.7 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
15. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 43.4 Strike%, 48.2 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Grayson Rodriguez velo was actually elevated yesterday, which I didn’t notice until now. Here’s one of those line plots made with code from ChatGPT, and this time I even made the color orange because he plays on the Orioles.
Something was goofy with Max Fried yesterday, it would seem:
We already talked about how he clearly didn’t have the command, but he also didn’t have the velocity on the slider, and his four-seamer was down a bit as well:
So yeah, pretty worrisome stuff from a guy that has been hurt multiple times this year.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tristan Beck's ST velo (15 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 84.0
Grayson Rodriguez's FF velo (38 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 98.9
Logan Gilbert's FS velo (10 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.0
Max Fried's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 82.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Grayson Rodriguez's SL usage (33.7%) up 16.6 points
JP Sears's SL usage (39.2%) up 27.9 points
Merrill Kelly's FC usage (26.1%) up 10.5 points
Patrick Sandoval's SI usage (33.7%) up 25.3 points
Quinn Priester's SL usage (35.3%) up 15.6 points
Quinn Priester's FF usage (27.5%) up 10.6 points
Yu Darvish's SI usage (30.9%) up 12.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +24.8%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -24.2%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -22.0%
Ryan Walker Slider: +22.0%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +19.8%
Logan Webb Sinker: -18.5%
Peter Lambert Slider: +18.2%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +18.2%
JP Sears Slider: +17.4%
Mike Clevinger Changeup: +16.9%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -16.7%
Logan Webb Changeup: +16.3%
Bryce Elder Sinker: +15.7%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +15.0%
Johan Oviedo Slider: -14.9%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -14.8%
Peter Lambert 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +14.3%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -14.1%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.1%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Grayson Rodriguez Slider: +13.7%
Bailey Falter Slider: +13.6%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +13.6%
Kenta Maeda 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +13.4%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.3%
Bailey Ober 4-Seam Fastball: +13.3%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.9%
Adrian Houser Slider: +12.8%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -12.8%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +12.7%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Quinn Priester Slider: +12.4%
Bobby Miller Slider: -12.3%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Here are your pitchers since the all-star break with strikeout rates about 30%
Peralta 36.2%
Silseth 35.2%
Strider 25.3%
Castillo 32.4%
Maeda 32.3%
Gausman 32.3%
Gavin Williams 32.3%
Glasnow 31.2%
Joe Ryan 30.1%
I don’t know why I showed you that!
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 102 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 96 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Julio Urias - 93 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Brandon Williamson - 88 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 31.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 42.4% K%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 40.2% K%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0% K%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Blake Snell - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 29.8% K%
Nick Pivetta - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
Zac Gallen - 101 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 37.0% K-BB%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 31.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 93 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 108 TBF, 65.5% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Brayan Bello - 99 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 98 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Yonny Chirinos - 86 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 107 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 95 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Zach Eflin - 83 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 76 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 118 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chase Silseth - 65 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.6 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.8 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 42.4 K%, 5.4 BB%, 43.8% GB%
George Kirby - 94 TBF, 29.8 K%, 3.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 30.0 K%, 7.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 96 TBF, 28.1 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.3% GB%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 31.7 K%, 6.9 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 122 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.7 BB%, 43.2% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.1 BB%, 52.2% GB%
Pedro Avila - 57 TBF, 28.1 K%, 7.0 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Zac Gallen - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Merrill Kelly - +2.4% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +4.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Cole Ragans - +7.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +4.0% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Jose Berrios - +2.7% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +2.8% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Ken Waldichuk - +2.7% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Julio Urias - +4.3% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Max Fried - +2.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Adrian Houser - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Ross Stripling - +4.3% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Jon Gray - +3.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Hitters
Corey Seager has been the gold standard for Contact% + Brl% this year.
He and Yordan Alvarez are the only two above a 75% Contact% and 18% Brl% at the same time. Neither of them even crack the top 40 on the player rater though because of missed playing time and a lack of steals (Alvarez doesn’t qualify). Seager only has 20 homers despite the super high barrel rate, but that’s hasn’t been a problem while he’s been in the lineup with a really, really good 15 PA/HR - a 40+ homer pace.
I would probably call those two the best pure hitters in the league just in terms of consistently, swing decisions, limiting the whiff, and still hitting for huge power. But real life and fantasy are different, and there’s a real good chance that Seager will be overdrafted next year.
I don’t think it can be overstated how much a guy not stealing bases hurts you in that category in this new league context where people are racking up steals like crazy. By my count, 29 different players already have 20+ steals, and we’ve got five guys over 30. If I look at the Seager owner in my league, he’s 7th (out of 10) in steals. That proves it outright - you cannot win steals with Seager on your team. Any evidence to the contrary will be ignored.
Multiple Barrels
Corey Seager (TEX) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Jake Burger (MIA) - 116.6mph - foul
Seth Brown (OAK) - 113.3mph - single
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.9mph - single
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 111.5mph - field_out
Josh Bell (MIA) - 111.4mph - home_run
Randal Grichuk (LAA) - 111.2mph - field_out
Nolan Jones (COL) - 110.8mph - single
Garrett Cooper (SD) - 110.8mph - home_run
Drew Waters (KC) - 110.6mph - nan
Corey Seager (TEX) - 110.5mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 79 PA, 0.225 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, 0.157 Diff
Aaron Judge - 68 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.513 xwOBA, 0.102 Diff
Andrew McCutchen - 61 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 69 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 77 PA, 0.298 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Spencer Torkelson - 75 PA, 0.314 wOBA, 0.388 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 73 PA, 0.368 wOBA, 0.44 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Willy Adames - 70 PA, 0.251 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Mark Vientos - 66 PA, 0.243 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Jack Suwinski - 62 PA, 0.202 wOBA, 0.252 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Bottom 10
Jose Altuve - 80 PA, 0.503 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, -0.142 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 85 PA, 0.375 wOBA, 0.255 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Christian Walker - 70 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 0.508 wOBA, 0.398 xwOBA, -0.11 Diff
Marcus Semien - 82 PA, 0.451 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Hunter Renfroe - 79 PA, 0.343 wOBA, 0.236 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Mike Moustakas - 76 PA, 0.345 wOBA, 0.242 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Jeimer Candelario - 70 PA, 0.449 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Matt Olson - 87 PA, 0.568 wOBA, 0.482 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Austin Riley - 94 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
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