MLB Daily Notes - August 15th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Tyler Anderson is the weirdest pitcher in the league. He had another big whiff night with 19. Between those whiffs, however, he gave up seven earned runs.
5.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 8 K, 4 BB, 19.4% SwStr%, 53.1% Strike%
For the season now he has a 13.5% SwStr% and a 36% Ball, a pretty decent combination. His 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are pretty good to boot! The low strikeout rate (19.3%) is a problem, though, and that is reflected in the ERA indicators:
xFIP: 4.79
FIP: 4.51
SIERA: 4.76
Most of his whiffs come from the changeup, which is a very good pitch with the 20% SwStr% and 46% Strike%, but the fastball is an issue for him with just a 47% Strike% on that pitch, which is thrown at just 89.3 miles per hour. But I don’t know why I’m spending this much time on Tyler Anderson.
Cole Ragans was second on the day with 18 whiffs. It was a fantastic start for him against the Twins:
7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB, 17% SwStr%, 46.2% Strike%, 36.8% Ball%
The fastball velocity came up a bit!
He even unwinded one just below 99 miles per hour, and that was his highest max since his seventh start of the year.
This is all very good news for Ragans owners, of which I am one. I was pretty much shitting my pants after that June 29th start, where his fastball dropped almost two full miles per hour. But since then:
8 GS, 16.0% SwStr%, 26.9% K%, 7.0% BB%, 3.47 ERA, 1.13 ERA
He hasn’t been a top-ten arm in this time frame, but he’s been very good. Prior to the velo drop, he posted a 29.9% K% and an 8.0% BB%, so he has three points on the strikeout rate which is significant. But yesterday was a very good sign for the future. Maybe he still has the velocity in the tank, and he could very well let it out here as the Royals are right in the thick of the playoff race.
More whiffs for DJ Herz!
6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB, 16.5% SwStr%, 49.4% Strike%, 31.8% Ball%
He’s now at a 14.7% SwStr% on the season with a 28.3% K% and a 7.9% BB%. Those are very good marks. The 4.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, however, are not good. That’s a very high WHIP, given that the walk rate is fine at 8%. He has given up a .307 BABIP and a lot of home runs (1.64 HR/9). I don’t view Herz as someone to start in 10 or 12-team leagues, but he’s certainly a deep-league guy and a viable streamer in good matchups.
General rule is that you’d be looking for 15+ points from a guy to call it a good start, and Herz has done that plenty of times:
Next up on the SwStr% leaderboard was Grant Holmes, who did it again for the Braves!
7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 15.8% SwStr%, 48.4% Strike%
He threw 95 pitches this time, so he’s acting as a legitimate starter for the Braves now. His four starts:
He hasn’t faced a tough schedule, but he has gotten it done with a very impressive 23% K-BB% in this time. Prior to last night, he had graded with a 90 Stuff+, a 100 Location+, and a 99 Pitching+ in his three starts. Here’s the pitch mix he’s used in this starter role:
The fastball has been good enough, and the slider and curveball have been awesome.
I would say that given he handled 95 pitches last night and has this sick 16.5% SwStr% and 29% Ball%, he should be picked up. His next start will be against the Phillies, which isn’t a great matchup - but they haven’t been very good (.703 OPS) in the second half.
Robbie Ray had a short day.
0.2 IP, 1 H, 5 ER, 2 K, 3 BB
He did not have any kind of command and had to be removed after throwing 39 pitches in the first inning. The outing went like this:
Walked Jorge Soler (7 pitches)
Walked Austin Riley (4)
Struck out Marcell Ozuna (5)
Walked Matt Olson (6)
Walked Orlando Arcia (6)
Grand Slam by Michael Harris (2)
Struck out Ramon Laureano (3)
Walked Sean Murphy (6)
The pitch plot:
I don’t think I’d change anything on Ray. We know he has a history of walk issues, but this seems more like a one-off random night where it just didn’t go his way. He’s far from a proven stud or anything like that, but the upside is just too much to not start him in moderate to deep leagues.
A good start from Bryan Woo!
7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 0 BB, 49.4% Strike%, 28.2% Ball%
He has now given up just 17 earned runs in 74.1 innings. That’s a league-leading 2.06 ERA, although he would not officially qualify with just 14 starts.
The scary part of the profile is the 19.6% K%. That is offset quite a bit by the 2.5% BB%, so the K-BB% stays strong at 17%, but we really don’t want to trust guys with strikeout rates that are this low.
I’ve looked into it before, and we can say that a 17% K-BB% is better if it looks like this:
30% K%, 13% BB%, 17% K-BB%
As compared to this:
20% K%, 3% BB, 17% K-BB%
The main reason for this is the number of balls in play. The first one results in a ball in play 57% of the time (100-30-13=57), while the second one results in a ball in play 77% of the time (100-20-3=77). So, for every 100 PAs, that’s 20 more chances to put a ball in play, and that hurts your ERA because one or two of those are likely to be a home run.
Back to Woo, here’s the pitch mix now:
As I have written before, I think one way for him to get a few more strikeouts is to just not throw the ball in the strike zone quite as often. He has a 60.8% Zone% this year, which leads the league by far.
SP Zone% Leaders
Woo 60.8%
Steele 57.4%
Estes 57.4%
C Irvin 56.9%
Skubal 56.2%
Three points is a huge margin, and I do think it’s to the point where it’s too much. Here are his zone rates by count compared to the league average:
Why are you throwing a pitch in the strike zone 47% of the time in an 0-2 count? Why 53% in 1-2? Those are the counts you go for a strikeout. Only Tarik Skubal (48.1%) and Joey Estes (47.3%) throw a pitch in the strike zone in an 0-2 count more frequently than Woo. Skubal has the nastiness factor where it doesn’t matter as much - they’re probably not going to be able to do much with how nasty he is, and Estes is the opposite. Woo is somewhere in the middle there. His stuff isn’t the best (104 Stuff+), but it’s not horrible by any means.
So my opinion is that Woo should throw more pitches outside of the zone, especially in two-strike counts. He has benefited from a .241 BABIP so far, and it’s at .222 in two-strike counts. That’s not going to last forever.
Martin Perez as a Padre:
3 GS, 18.1 IP, 15.2% SwStr%, 29.6% K%, 4.2% BB%, 1.96 ERA, 0.76 WHIP
What’s going on there!? Almost surely it’s just the matchups. He’s faced the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates. That’s about as good of a schedule as you can find.
Let’s just check the pitch mix to see if he’s made a change (no matter what we find here, I’m not buying in Martin Perez):
Pitch → % with PIT → % with SD
Sinker: 37.5% → 23.2%
Cutter: 25.0% → 20.2%
Change: 21.3% → 25.5%
Curve: 10.4% → 27.0%
4Seam: 5.8% → 4.2%
So he’s traded a bunch of sinkers for curveballs, and that’s worked very well so far. The curveball has a 44% Strike% and a 15.5% SwStr% on 71 offerings with San Diego. So he’s been great, but certainly this won’t keep up. It’s not as though the Padres have finally found the secret sauce with a 33-year-old guy with a career 16% K%.
Remember when Tanner Houck was getting strikeouts?
April-June: 17 GS, 23.9% K%, 11.3% SwStr%
July-Aug: 7 GS, 12.7% K%, 8.6% SwStr%
He’s still hanging around with a 3.92 ERA since July began, but the WHIP is a disaster at 1.49. The worst news is that his 0.6% K-BB% over these last seven starts is the second-worst in the league. I would not feel good starting Houck anymore.
Edward CaBBrera put up an impressively high 46.3% Ball% yesterday, walking four and giving up six runs on six hits in four innings against the Phillies.
Only 10 SPs have thrown 1,000+ pitches this year with a Ball% above 39%.
At least Cabrera has good stuff (26.8% K%, 104 Stuff+), and that will turn into a good start every once in a while, as we’ve seen, but overall, he’s not a fantasy pitcher at all.
Mitch Keller has been ringed up for 15 earned runs in his last starts (LAD & SD), so that has ballooned his ERA up to 3.95 (it was 3.20 before these two). He’s always a bit of an elevated risk for bad stretches because of his low strikeout rate (21%). If he doesn’t have the pinpoint command in a given outing, hitters can really pile up the hits off of him because he’s pretty easy to hit when the pitches aren’t located properly.
Let’s look at some CLOSERS. That’s right, closers! We almost never talk about them here, but we’re doing so today. The early days and weeks of August are a great time to add some saves to your team as bullpens get shuffled around at the trade deadline. And we have seen plenty of guys enter into closer roles lately. Saves this month:
5: Josh Hader, Chad Green (TOR)
4: Victor Vodnik (COL), Ryan Helsley, Emmanuel Clase
3: Robert Suarez, Raisel Iglesias, Pete Fairbanks, Justin Martinez (ARI), Hector Neris (CHC), Clay Holmes, Alexis Diaz
2: Seranthony Dominguez (BAL), Mason Miller, Lucas Erceg (KCR), Kyle Finnegan, Kirby Yates (TEX), Devin Williams, Daniel Hudson (LAD), Camilo Doval, Calvin Faucher (2)
There are a ton of guys with one, so I won’t list them. One of those names is Ryan Walker, who was named the closer after the Doval demotion.
So, the guys you’d be looking to add, in this order (my opinion):
Ryan Walker SF
Seranthony Dominguez BAL
Lucas Erceg KC
Justin Martinez ARI
Daniel Hudson LAD
Victor Vodnik COL
Kirby Yates TEX
Hitter Review
The Reds hit five homers yesterday. TJ Friedl and Jonathan India had two each and then Tyler Stephenson added one.
It’s been a wild ride for India:
For the season he has a .249/.352/.395 line with 11 homers, an 8.3% Brl%, a 21% K%, a 12.4% BB%, and a .352 xwOBA. More bad than good there, but we’ve seen him really crush some fantasy teams for stretches this season.
As for TJ Friedl, he’s missed a bunch of time this year but for the year has done this:
.233/.326/.421, .747 OPS, 9 HR, 3.1% Brl%, 16.3% K%, 8.2% BB%
He does not strike out much, but he also doesn’t impact the ball well (85mph average EV and you see that extremely low barrel rate). The way he gets to his dingers is the pull rate, which is around 50% right now.
Here are his 27 homers since last season, drawn on Great American Ballpark:
He has 41 career expected homers in Cincy. If he played every game in San Francisco, he’d have just 16. Taking the extreme parks on any player will always result in a big gap, but you can see how reliant he is on those short porches in Cincy.
Some Reds splits. OPS by Home/Road:
Steer………..: .747 home, .758 road
Elly………….: .829 home, .842 road
Candelario: .789 home, .625 road
India………..: .854 home, .651 road
Stephenson: .794 home, .743 roadTeam at home: .229/.304/.414, 85 HR
Team on road: .233/.299/.390, 61 HR
It makes sense that Elly would be resilient here, he hits the ball so hard that the park often doesn’t matter. India and Candelario do not hit the ball nearly as hard, so a lot of those fly balls they hit will be homers at home but easy fly outs on the road.
Adolis Garcia hit his 20th homer yesterday. This has been a down year for him.
2021: .243/.286/.454, .741 OPS, 31.2% K%, 31 HR
2022: .250/.300/.456, .756 OPS, 27.9% K%, 27 HR
2023: .245/.328/.508, .836 OPS, 27.7% K%, 39 HR
2024: .224/.288/.406, .694 OPS, 25.9% K%, 20 HR
The barrel rate is at just 11.5%, which is way down from 16.1% last year.
Shohei Ohtani clinched a 35-35 season. That is just the 9th 35-35 season since 2000:
And hey, he’s got 41 games to add on to it. This will very likely be the third 40-40 season since 2000 (Acuna last year, Soriano in 2006), and the sixth all-time. From WIKIPEDIA here:
Tyler Fitzgerald continues his assault. He is third in fantasy points scored in August with five homers and five steals on a .321 batting average and a 1.027 OPS.
I don’t know to say other than the guy pisses me off. He shouldn’t be this good and he’s certain to disappoint many a fantasy manager next year after they draft him in the 6th round or something like that.
I’m going to call it quits there!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Tyler Anderson
2. Jordan Montgomery
3. DJ Herz
4. Grant Holmes
5. Bryan Woo
6. Cole Ragans
7. Jose Berrios
8. Ronel Blanco
9. Jameson Taillon
10. Will Warren
11. Martin Perez
12. Dane Dunning
13. Zack Littell
14. Davis Martin
15. David Peterson
16. Louie Varland
17. Tanner Houck
18. Joey Estes
19. Tyler Phillips
20. Mitch Keller
21. Frankie Montas
22. Dean Kremer
23. Kyle Gibson
24. Alex Cobb
25. Edward Cabrera
26. Walker Buehler
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans (vs. MIN): 30.75 Points
2. Martin Perez (vs. PIT): 26.39 Points
3. Jose Berrios (vs. LAA): 25.95 Points
4. Bryan Woo (vs. DET): 25.35 Points
5. Jordan Montgomery (vs. COL): 22.7 Points
6. Grant Holmes (vs. SF): 22.35 Points
7. David Peterson (vs. OAK): 22.04 Points
8. Ronel Blanco (vs. TB): 20.3 Points
9. Frankie Montas (vs. LAD): 18.45 Points
10. Alex Cobb (vs. CHC): 17.76 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jordan Montgomery (AZ): 22 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
2. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 19 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Cole Ragans (KC): 18 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
4. Grant Holmes (ATL): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. DJ Herz (WSH): 14 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
6. Tanner Houck (BOS): 13 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
7. Martin Perez (SD): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
9. Bryan Woo (SEA): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
10. Louie Varland (MIN): 11 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 53.1 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
2. Jose Berrios (TOR): 52.4 Strike%, 27.4 Ball%
3. Carson Spiers (CIN): 51.7 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
4. Jordan Montgomery (AZ): 50.0 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
5. Martin Perez (SD): 49.5 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
6. Bryan Woo (SEA): 49.4 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
7. DJ Herz (WSH): 49.4 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
8. Frankie Montas (MIL): 49.0 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
9. Grant Holmes (ATL): 48.4 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
10. Will Warren (NYY): 47.9 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%
11. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 47.8 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
12. Joey Estes (OAK): 47.7 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
13. Dean Kremer (BAL): 46.7 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
14. Cole Ragans (KC): 46.2 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
15. Bryan Sammons (DET): 45.9 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jose Berrios: 84 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.0 POUT
2. Bryan Woo: 85 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.05 POUT
3. Ronel Blanco: 73 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.06 POUT
4. Bryan Sammons: 74 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.35 POUT
5. Grant Holmes: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
6. Zack Littell: 68 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.53 POUT
7. David Peterson: 88 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.63 POUT
8. Alex Cobb: 80 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.71 POUT
9. DJ Herz: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
10. Davis Martin: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Louie Varland's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 89.6
DJ Herz's CH velo (20 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.4
Ronel Blanco's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.3
Tyler Phillips's ST velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 84.0
Zack Littell's FS velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.0
Martin Perez's SI velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 89.8
Cole Ragans's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.1
Walker Buehler's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 77.1
Dean Kremer's FC velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 86.3
Martin Perez's FC velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 87.0
Dane Dunning's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 79.8
Mitch Keller's FF velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 92.9
Zack Littell's FF velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 91.2
Zack Littell's SI velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 89.9
Mitch Keller's SI velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 91.4
Zack Littell's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 84.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bryan Woo's ST usage (18.8%) up 15.2 points
Carson Spiers's ST usage (26.7%) up 10.1 points
Cole Ragans's FF usage (50.9%) up 10.3 points
DJ Herz's SL usage (35.3%) up 17.2 points
David Peterson's SI usage (43.2%) up 16.5 points
Davis Martin's CH usage (30.6%) up 16.0 points
Dean Kremer's FS usage (33.7%) up 26.9 points
Edward Cabrera's CH usage (47.6%) up 10.9 points
Frankie Montas's FF usage (48.0%) up 12.6 points
Martin Perez's CU usage (32.3%) up 25.1 points
Ronel Blanco's CU usage (16.4%) up 11.0 points
Zack Littell's SI usage (23.5%) up 10.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -24.6%
Luis Gil Slider: +22.1%
JP Sears Sweeper: -20.0%
James Paxton Sinker: +19.1%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -18.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -18.0%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -17.0%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +16.9%
Bowden Francis Curveball: -16.7%
Martin Perez Curveball: +16.6%
Luis Gil Changeup: -15.9%
Walker Buehler 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +15.7%
Walker Buehler Cutter: +14.4%
Martin Perez Sinker: -14.3%
Tanner Gordon Sinker: +14.2%
Logan Webb Changeup: +14.0%
Hayden Birdsong Curveball: +13.9%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +13.7%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.2%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -13.0%
Taijuan Walker Sinker: +13.0%
James Paxton Curveball: +12.9%
Ben Lively Sinker: -12.9%
Edward Cabrera Changeup: +12.5%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Paul Blackburn Cutter: +12.4%
Josh Winckowski Sinker: +12.3%
Tyler Glasnow Slider: +12.2%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
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