MLB Daily Notes - August 16th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Some stories came out in the last few days about MLB considering a six-inning minimum for starting pitchers, and that’s quite an interesting topic. The rule would be that your starting pitcher would have to complete at least six innings unless he
Throws 100 pitches first
Gives up four earned runs first
Gets injured
And any injury removal would require an IL stint to disincentivize faking it. As with any rule change idea, the feedback has been mostly negative on it. This is a big change, and it involved teams having way less freedom in managing their games, so I get why it would be unpopular. I think I’m pretty much in favor of it.
The thing we all should want to avoid is teams basically going with “bullpen games” every time. If you think about it, that approach could very well be optimal. You could have 14 relievers on your team and use 3-5 of them every game. They would never face the same hitter three times (which is a big advantage to the hitter as we know), they would get the platoon advantage at a higher rate, and the stuff would just be better since the guys could go full-out if they’re only in there for 20-40 pitches most of the time. It would also be a much easier pitching staff to assemble (it is much easier to find an effective reliever as compared to an effective starter), and it would be cheaper as well (relievers don’t make as much money as starters).
I am a bit surprised that someone hasn’t tried this yet, especially one of the more desperate franchises like the Rockies or Athletics. Seriously, why are the Rockies using traditional starters? That doesn’t make any sense.
Maybe I’m missing some things and this wouldn’t actually work, but it seems like it would work - and if it would work, then eventually we would end up there. And that would be a bad situation for the fans (and a disaster for fantasy baseball). We like starting pitchers. Those matchups (especially in the playoffs) where you have two stud SPs going against each other are some of the most enticing games in the sport, and we don’t want to lose those.
So I think it’s a good core idea. Maybe the solution they’re proposing in this example isn’t the best. Maybe it would be better to incentivize six innings rather than force it, but I do think the MLB is thinking in the right direction here.
A common problem I see is that people are overly utopic when they’re talking about sports and rules and politics and stuff. As the great Thomas Sowell said:
“There are no solutions, only trade-offs”
Every action has a reaction. Every policy, rule, or change has side effects. Too often the people in charge of things don’t consider those trade-offs. We saw that over and over again during the COVID stuff. They were only looking at the one issue in front of them and then hastily putting some “solution” into place for it without considering anything at all about the trade-off they were making. And almost every time in 2020-2021, it was a horrible trade-off to make.
But I think the trade-off here is worth it; I want to see starters getting deeper into games. That’s good for the game.
Pitcher Review
There’s not a ton here to talk about. But we can take a fresh look at our boy Bryce Miller. He was one of my most-hyped SPs to draft coming into this year. He has not had the breakout smash season I thought he would, but he’s been good:
24 GS, 139.2 IP, 9 W, 3.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 23.4% K%, 5.7% BB%
I liked him because of the fastball foundation, and that foundation has been… foundational!
Bryce Miller FF: 15.8% SwStr%, 55% Strike%, 30% Ball%
He is one of the best four-seamers in the league from a starting pitcher, without question.
I thought developing with his other pitches would take him to the next level. That’s the part that hasn’t happened in full force.
The sinker is pretty bad with that 45% Strike%, but the 62% GB% works. The splitter is the pitch we thought might put him over the top. It’s been an average splitter with a 16.3% SwStr% and a 43% Strike%, which are right there with the league averages on that pitch type. Hitters have just a .243 SLG against it, which is very good. The pitch has improved his repertoire, but throwing it only 17% of the time limits its impact. It will be interesting to see where Miller goes from here; he definitely has a few different paths to choose from. I’d suggest that maybe more four-seamers and splitters and fewer sinkers could work. I’m confident that would at least raise his strikeout rate, but life isn’t all about strikeouts. Maybe that’s not the best trade-off to make!
Zack Wheeler is putting together another Cy Young-caliber season:
24 GS, 148.2 IP, 12 W, 2.72 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 27.5% K%, 7.3% BB%
The strikeout rate has come down a bit from his previous highs, but a 2.72 ERA over that many innings is incredible. His 162 strikeouts are the seventh-most in the league:
Cease 181
Skubal 180
Sale 177
Ragans 174
Glasnow 168
Crochet 163
Wheeler 162
S Gray 162
H Greene 162
Peralta 159
The NL Cy Young race would appear to be down to Chris Sale vs. Zack Wheeler.
It’s a bit surprising to see Cease that far down, but ERA matters here and he’s quite a bit behind there at 3.41. That’s an unlucky ERA (3.15 SIERA), but the Cy Young Award is about results rather than what should have happened.
That’s something us analytics bro miss. We are always focused on the future, so we rightfully dismiss ERA in favor of more predictive numbers. But awards are about what happened in the past. And ERA tells you more about what happened in the past than SIERA does. Your team doesn’t get any extra benefit from your 4.00 ERA just because it was a 3.25 SIERA. Only results matter. We want to do our best to strip out variance and randomness when looking to the future, but we cannot do that when looking to the past.
I’d still lay a few bucks on Cease +3000 there.
Excellent start for Zach Eflin:
6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB
The pitch mix:
He’s thrown the cutter at a slightly higher rate with the Orioles (31.5%, up from 26%). It would make sense that more cutters would mean more strikeouts. His SwStr% as an Oriole is better but still middling at 12.4%, and the Ball% has still been great at 32%.
Encouraging stuff from him, he’s certainly a useable streamer option in fantasy leagues, at the very least.
Max Fried’s return from the IL so far:
That’s a bad 7.91 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. That’s mainly because he hasn’t had the command. His ball rates are 44%, 39%, and 35% - nothing at all like the Fried we know. My guess is that he’ll get right very soon in that regard, but it’s been a very up-and-down season for Fried, so I can’t say we can totally trust him as a top fantasy SP.
Logan Webb got deep into the game once again with 7.2 shutout innings against the Braves. He has gone 9, 5.2, 7, and 7.2 innings in his last four starts. He is on his way to lead the league in innings pitched again.
Webb 164.2
Lugo 159.2
Gilbert 154.2
Berrios 149.2
Burnes 149.2
I don’t think any pitcher would like a six-inning minimum more than Webb. It would change nothing at all for him; he’s failed to complete six innings just six times this year (so 77% of the time, he’s gone 6+).
6+ IP Rates:
Hitter Review
Seventeen homers were hit yesterday:
Mark Vientos 2
Keibert Ruiz 2
Wilyer Abreu
William Contreras
Willi Castro
Weston Wilson
Nick Castellanos
JJ Bleday
Javier Baez
Jackson Chourio
Gunnar Henderson
Grant McCray
Cedric Mullins
Casey Schmitt
Alec Bohm
Javier Baez is up to a whopping .529 OPS. That is one of the worst contracts given his league history.
Mark Vientos is up to 19 homers now in just 288 PAs. That’s a 15.1 PA/HR, one of the best rates in the league. His K% is very nice (given that raw power) at 25%, and he has a very impressive .279/.337/.561 slash line now. He could be one of the premier power bats in the league for the next several years, given that he’s just 24 years old and performing so impressively this year.
Weston Wilson capitalized on his opportunity there with a big game for the Phillies. He is one of these guys who has murdered AAA pitching but hasn’t found a constant job in the Majors. Since last season:
In AAA: 857 PA, .252/.355/.505, .860 OPS, 25.9% K%, 13.7% BB%, 49 HR
In MLB: 62 PA, .333/.403/.630, 1.033 OPS, 22.6% K%, 11.3% BB%, 4 HR
I would say the man is deserving of some more playing time! It’s too bad he’s in the loaded Phillies system right now. Or maybe it’s not! Maybe he’ll get himself a World Series ring since he’s officially in the Major League box score this year again.
I guess that begs the question: Would you rather be a nobody on a championship team or a star on a bad team? I think that question would split the population
On to the automated reports!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Bryce Miller
2. Zack Wheeler
3. Jack Flaherty
4. Zach Eflin
5. Logan Webb
6. Bailey Ober
7. Mitchell Parker
8. Mitch Spence
9. Cody Bradford
10. Max Fried
11. Nick Pivetta
12. Tobias Myers
13. Jose Quintana
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryce Miller (vs. DET): 32.55 Points
2. Logan Webb (vs. ATL): 32.26 Points
3. Zach Eflin (vs. BOS): 28.5 Points
4. Zack Wheeler (vs. WSH): 25.7 Points
5. Kenta Maeda (vs. SEA): 21.56 Points
6. Jack Flaherty (vs. MIL): 15.65 Points
7. Nick Pivetta (vs. BAL): 14.85 Points
8. Bryan Hudson (vs. LAD): 12.5 Points
9. Tyler Ferguson (vs. NYM): 11.3 Points
10. Max Fried (vs. SF): 11.19 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jack Flaherty (LAD): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. Bryce Miller (SEA): 14 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
4. Kenta Maeda (DET): 12 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
5. Zach Eflin (BAL): 12 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
6. Logan Webb (SF): 12 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
7. Bailey Ober (MIN): 11 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Cody Bradford (TEX): 11 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
9. Mitch Spence (OAK): 10 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
10. Mason Miller (OAK): 9 Whiffs (39 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 53.3 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
2. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 53.1 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
3. Jack Flaherty (LAD): 52.7 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
4. Bryce Miller (SEA): 52.2 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
5. Zach Eflin (BAL): 50.6 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
6. Logan Webb (SF): 50.0 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
7. Max Fried (ATL): 49.5 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
8. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 48.6 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
9. Mitch Spence (OAK): 48.3 Strike%, 39.3 Ball%
10. Kenta Maeda (DET): 46.4 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
11. Cody Bradford (TEX): 45.2 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
12. Bailey Ober (MIN): 44.1 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
13. Tobias Myers (MIL): 44.1 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
14. Jose Quintana (NYM): 33.7 Strike%, 47.8 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryce Miller: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
2. Logan Webb: 104 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.52 POUT
3. Zach Eflin: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
4. Kenta Maeda: 84 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.94 POUT
5. Bailey Ober: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
6. Zack Wheeler: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT
7. Tobias Myers: 93 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.47 POUT
8. Cody Bradford: 104 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.78 POUT
9. Nick Pivetta: 90 Pitches, 15 Outs, 6.0 POUT
10. Jack Flaherty: 93 Pitches, 15 Outs, 6.2 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Cody Bradford's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 74.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Ober's FC usage (24.7%) up 14.2 points
Bryce Miller's FS usage (25.6%) up 15.8 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (24.0%) up 13.2 points
Zach Eflin's FF usage (31.0%) up 23.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -24.6%
Luis Gil Slider: +22.1%
JP Sears Sweeper: -20.0%
James Paxton Sinker: +19.1%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -18.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -18.0%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -17.0%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +16.9%
Bowden Francis Curveball: -16.7%
Martin Perez Curveball: +16.6%
Luis Gil Changeup: -15.9%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +15.7%
Walker Buehler 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%
Martin Perez Sinker: -14.3%
Tanner Gordon Sinker: +14.2%
Hayden Birdsong Curveball: +13.9%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +13.7%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.2%
Walker Buehler Cutter: +13.2%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -13.0%
Taijuan Walker Sinker: +13.0%
James Paxton Curveball: +12.9%
Ben Lively Sinker: -12.9%
Edward Cabrera Changeup: +12.5%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Paul Blackburn Cutter: +12.4%
Josh Winckowski Sinker: +12.3%
Tyler Glasnow Slider: +12.2%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 39.4% CSW%
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 38.7% CSW%
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Michael King - 69 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 99 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Sean Manaea - 70 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Martin Perez - 71 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 105 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Grant Holmes - 92 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 46.5% K%
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 46.4% K%
Michael King - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 37.3% K%
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 37.3% K%
Ryne Nelson - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Sean Manaea - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Jack Flaherty - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Framber Valdez - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Tarik Skubal - 105 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 39.4% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 37.1% K-BB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Michael King - 69 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
Ryne Nelson - 72 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 72 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 105 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 69 TBF, 68.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 106 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Michael King - 69 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Tanner Houck - 104 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 85 TBF, 52.8% GB%
Charlie Morton - 84 TBF, 52.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 112 TBF, 51.9% GB%
Grant Holmes - 92 TBF, 51.6% GB%
Mitch Spence - 87 TBF, 51.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Elder - 46 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 99 TBF, 33.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Gavin Williams - 64 TBF, 29.7 K%, 4.7 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Grant Holmes - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Joe Ryan - 54 TBF, 31.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 61 TBF, 27.9 K%, 1.6 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Luis Castillo - 77 TBF, 28.6 K%, 3.9 BB%, 44.0% GB%
Michael King - 69 TBF, 37.7 K%, 5.8 BB%, 56.4% GB%
Ryne Nelson - 72 TBF, 34.7 K%, 6.9 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Sonny Gray - 98 TBF, 30.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 44.3% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 37.3 K%, 2.7 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 2.6 BB%, 50.9% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 44.3% GB%
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