MLB Daily Notes - August 18th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Pitchers - Yesterday
Short slate of games yesterday but a couple of weird things happened.
Adam Wainwright threw a quality start but also became just the third pitcher all year to throw 70+ pitches and not get a single whiff. He did that on 93 pitches. That’s the second most pitches all year without a whiff:
Martin Perez 7/29: 98 pitches
Adam Wainwright 8/17: 93 pitches
Janson Junk 4/12: 79 pitches
He had another just awful 37% Strike% and 42% Ball% on a 2:3 K:BB so there was nothing good about it - but leave it to the Mets to only score three runs against that pitching!
The other weird start was Zac Gallen
6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 K, 1 BB
Good result, but a bad line:
3% SwStr%, 20% CSW%, 40% Strike%, 41% Ball%, 3:1 K:BB
He also gave up a .510 xwOBA, so he was very, very lucky:
That was the luckiest start of the whole year by xwOBA - wOBA:
He has maintained a K-BB% above 20% all year, so there’s no real reason to worry about him - but he’s just not going to be that guy that shuts down an offense with a dozen strikeouts very often. His Strike% is pretty average for the year at 47.1% and the SwStr% is the same at 12.9%.
You could say the same, to some extent, about Lance Lynn - who put up a good box score result with 7 scoreless innings on four hits and one walk, but he only struck out three Brewers and had a low 8% SwStr%.
The soft contact was real though with a .273 xwOBA allowed - so you can’t really call it a lucky start.
Lance Lynn, the Dodger:
The K-BB% hasn’t been MUCH better in LA (18.5% → 21.1%), and the SwStr% has actually been much worse (15.5% → 12.7%). But the results have clearly been much better, even though there aren’t massive differences in the xwOBA allowed either (.331 → .308).
It would seem that the Dodgers told him to change the pitch mix, using more four-seamers in place of cutters.
He’s been a lot better against lefties with the Dodgers
with CWS: 1.039 OPS against
with LAD: .396 OPS against
1.039 was unsustainably high, and .396 is unsustainably low. He really just relies on the four-seamer against lefties now (60%), and maybe that was the right call. I don’t know - this is all very strange!
It’s all worked so far, but the lower SwStr% isn’t something you love to see, so I don’t know - I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lynn struggle a bit more down the stretch, but hopefully, you got your hands on him right after the trade (like I did, shout out to me for being stubborn).
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (vs. LAD): 31.35 Points
2. Patrick Corbin (vs. BOS): 25.1 Points
3. Zac Gallen (vs. SD): 19.84 Points
4. Jose Quintana (vs. STL): 19.3 Points
5. Lance Lynn (vs. MIL): 18.75 Points
6. Pedro Avila (vs. ARI): 15.8 Points
7. Angel Zerpa (vs. SEA): 14.8 Points
8. Rich Hill (vs. ARI): 9.45 Points
9. Kyle Nelson (vs. SD): 8.99 Points
10. Chris Sale (vs. WSH): 8.74 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 15 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
3. Angel Zerpa (KC): 11 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
4. Jose Quintana (NYM): 11 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Chris Sale (BOS): 9 Whiffs (65 Pitches)
6. Pedro Avila (SD): 7 Whiffs (52 Pitches)
7. Lance Lynn (LAD): 7 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
8. Rich Hill (SD): 6 Whiffs (56 Pitches)
9. Kyle Nelson (ARI): 5 Whiffs (16 Pitches)
10. George Kirby (SEA): 5 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Angel Zerpa (KC): 50.0 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
2. Pedro Avila (SD): 50.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
3. George Kirby (SEA): 49.3 Strike%, 20.5 Ball%
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 46.9 Strike%, 38.8 Ball%
5. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 45.8 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
6. Rich Hill (SD): 42.9 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
7. Jose Quintana (NYM): 42.3 Strike%, 41.2 Ball%
8. Chris Sale (BOS): 40.0 Strike%, 41.5 Ball%
9. Zac Gallen (ARI): 40.0 Strike%, 41.0 Ball%
10. Lance Lynn (LAD): 39.1 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
11. Adam Wainwright (STL): 36.6 Strike%, 41.9 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Chris Sale’s velocity was down, according to THIS, but let’s get that plot going:
So yeah that was the lowest mark of the season, and the slider was in the pits as well:
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (43 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.0
Zac Gallen's CU velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 81.1
Chris Sale's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 77.0
Chris Sale's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 91.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adam Wainwright's FF usage (23.7%) up 16.1 points
Angel Zerpa's SL usage (41.7%) up 15.7 points
Angel Zerpa's FF usage (40.5%) up 13.1 points
George Kirby's SI usage (32.9%) up 10.3 points
Patrick Corbin's FF usage (34.4%) up 16.5 points
Pedro Avila's SI usage (32.7%) up 21.8 points
Rich Hill's FF usage (64.3%) up 28.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -24.2%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +19.8%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -19.3%
Logan Webb Sinker: -18.5%
Peter Lambert Slider: +18.2%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +18.2%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +18.1%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -18.0%
Jon Gray Slider: +17.5%
JP Sears Slider: +17.4%
Ryan Walker Slider: +17.4%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -17.4%
Logan Webb Changeup: +16.3%
Luis Severino Cutter: +16.2%
Kenta Maeda 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +15.8%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +15.1%
Peter Lambert 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -14.1%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Austin Gomber Slider: +13.9%
Grayson Rodriguez Slider: +13.7%
Bailey Falter Slider: +13.6%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +13.6%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -13.5%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -13.1%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +12.7%
Quinn Priester Slider: +12.4%
James Paxton Cutter: -12.3%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Johan Oviedo Slider: -12.3%
Jordan Lyles 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
It’s Cole Ragans day at 2:20! Although seeing all of these other “industry” dudes really hyping him up recently has made me not want to talk about him… this is how my brain works.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 70 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 65 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Touki Toussaint - 89 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Gavin Williams - 65 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Drew Smyly - 70 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gavin Williams - 65 TBF, 43.1% K%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 33.8% K%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Chase Silseth - 65 TBF, 32.3% K%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0% K%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Nick Pivetta - 87 TBF, 31.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gavin Williams - 65 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 71 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Chase Silseth - 65 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Kenta Maeda - 83 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 65 TBF, 68.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 108 TBF, 65.5% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 86 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 75 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 77 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 86 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Yonny Chirinos - 86 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Pedro Avila - 72 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chase Silseth - 65 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.6 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.8 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Gavin Williams - 65 TBF, 43.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Jakob Junis - 46 TBF, 32.6 K%, 2.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Julio Urias - 65 TBF, 33.8 K%, 3.1 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 96 TBF, 28.1 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.3% GB%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 31.7 K%, 6.9 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Michael King - 44 TBF, 38.6 K%, 4.5 BB%, 48.0% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 1.4 BB%, 55.1% GB%
Pedro Avila - 72 TBF, 27.8 K%, 6.9 BB%, 56.5% GB%
Sean Manaea - 52 TBF, 36.5 K%, 7.7 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Merrill Kelly - +2.4% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +2.8% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Dane Dunning - +6.8% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Cole Ragans - +7.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Sonny Gray - +2.6% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Jose Berrios - +2.7% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +2.9% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.4% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Ken Waldichuk - +2.7% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Julio Urias - +4.3% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Brandon Williamson - +4.6% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Max Fried - +2.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +2.1% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Xzavion Curry - +3.7% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Jakob Junis - +7.5% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Hitters
Julio Rodriguez is now the #10 hitter on the player rater
72 R, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 30 SB, .269 AVG
Over the last 30 days, he’s #3 (Tucker, Olson), and over the last 60 he’s #8. So the early season scare wasn’t really justified - he’s been great once again.
Multiple Barrels
Daniel Vogelbach (NYM) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.1mph - home_run
Riley Adams (WSH) - 110.8mph - force_out
Corbin Carroll (ARI) - 110.6mph - field_out
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 110.5mph - home_run
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 110.5mph - double
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 110.1mph - home_run
Trent Grisham (SD) - 110.1mph - single
Tyler O'Neill (STL) - 109.8mph - home_run
Garrett Cooper (SD) - 108.9mph - double
Triston Casas (BOS) - 108.8mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 85 PA, 0.282 wOBA, 0.395 xwOBA, 0.113 Diff
Joc Pederson - 60 PA, 0.239 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, 0.105 Diff
Mark Vientos - 62 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, 0.096 Diff
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.397 wOBA, 0.492 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 75 PA, 0.291 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Mickey Moniak - 70 PA, 0.152 wOBA, 0.221 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Andrew McCutchen - 66 PA, 0.28 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Carlos Santana - 72 PA, 0.221 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 64 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Max Kepler - 63 PA, 0.422 wOBA, 0.478 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Bottom 10
Jose Altuve - 83 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.363 xwOBA, -0.141 Diff
Johan Rojas - 58 PA, 0.339 wOBA, 0.202 xwOBA, -0.137 Diff
Bobby Witt Jr. - 83 PA, 0.533 wOBA, 0.41 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff
Kerry Carpenter - 67 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Kyle Isbel - 58 PA, 0.32 wOBA, 0.213 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Austin Riley - 93 PA, 0.448 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
Joey Votto - 64 PA, 0.385 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 83 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.259 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Jeimer Candelario - 65 PA, 0.46 wOBA, 0.364 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Matt Olson - 86 PA, 0.565 wOBA, 0.471 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Gary Sanchez - 53 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%
Max Kepler - 63 PA, 43 BIP, 12 Brls, 27.9 Brl%
Spencer Torkelson - 72 PA, 45 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 48 PA, 23 BIP, 6 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Ryan Jeffers - 51 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 79 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Nolan Jones - 70 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 83 PA, 53 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Jake Bauers - 65 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Matt Olson - 86 PA, 57 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Wander Franco - 63 PA, 0.498 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.492 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 63 PA, 0.478 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 86 PA, 0.471 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 96 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 53 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Riley Greene - 72 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Ty France - 78 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 83 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 73 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Keibert Ruiz - 74 PA, 130 Swings, 93.1 Cont%
Brandon Nimmo - 67 PA, 119 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Michael Massey - 76 PA, 150 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 74 PA, 139 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 137 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 83 PA, 132 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
TJ Friedl - 69 PA, 120 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 53 PA, 85 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 66 PA, 109 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 86 PA, 166 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 6 Attempts (3 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Trevor Story - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ezequiel Tovar - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Sal Frelick - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ozzie Albies - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Bryson Stott - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Gleyber Torres - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
TJ Friedl - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Matt McLain - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Harrison Bader - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Nick Allen - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Michael Harris II - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Jose Caballero - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Rafael Ortega - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Chris Taylor - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jose Altuve - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 17 Attempts (16 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 12 Attempts (8 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Bryson Stott - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Lane Thomas - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jose Altuve - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Willi Castro - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 83 PA, 12.0 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Corey Seager - 53 PA, 15.1 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Ian Happ - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Luis Robert - 50 PA, 20.0 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Matt Olson - 86 PA, 17.4 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 73 PA, 16.4 K%, 17.3 Brl%
Wander Franco - 63 PA, 11.1 K%, 18.4 Brl%
Yainer Diaz - 50 PA, 18.0 K%, 17.9 Brl%
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