MLB Daily Notes - August 1st
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Put together a Tableau Dashboard to show some of that tracking data for strikeouts and walks.
Right now we’re +13.1 units on 208 K prop bets and +14 units on 78 walk prop bets. You can see the profits by day in the dashboard, so give that a look if you want. The recommended bets are available to paid subs every day in the massive prop betting sheet I have running.
Despite the profit shown above, I still don’t really recommend anybody get too seriously into this. Even if we’re actually beating the sportsbooks models right now, that is only going to last so long. I would imagine they’ll squeeze the lines at some point or just improve their pricing algorithm - and then the edge will be gone. But we’ll continue to track it and post the recommended bets - because that’s fun for me. I don’t even often bet these myself, it’s just been fun for me to see if I could make an algorithm to beat the books.
Pitchers - Yesterday
If you read the DFS piece and then played Tyler Glasnow & Nick Pivetta in DFS, you probably did pretty well as long as you got some hitters together. They led the slate in scoring, albeit at high ownership.
I had them both in the $5 Hundo contest but ate the 2 points from Acuna at $6,600 and fell shy of the cash line.
Pivetta now has a 43% K% in his last 35 innings with a 16% SwStr% and 55% Strike%. That’s pretty insane. He has benefitted from a pretty soft schedule, but it’s hard to deny what he’s doing completely:
You can see there are 31 strikeouts in there against the Athletics and Mariners, pretty soft lineups. The difference maker has been the slider.
April - May: 19% slider usage, 15% SwStr%, 44% Strike%
June - July: 18% slider usage, 24% SwStr%, 49% Strike%
He’s always had a decent to good four-seamer, so the slider performing this well really has elevated him to a very tough guy to face. There’s still no reason to think this stuff will continue given his history, but he’s a pretty good SP add right now.
Charlie Morton is a guy we haven’t talked much about this year but he had a big 23 whiffs and a 24.5% SwStr% against the new-look Angels yesterday. That was six innings and eight strikeouts while allowing three earned runs, and he took the loss (but who cares about taking the loss lmao!).
We have said in the past that old Chuck is slowing down, and we’ve been wrong, but I think we’re right to say it now (famous last words!).
The K% is down, the BB% is up, the Strike% is way down. Just seems like he doesn’t have the same command as usual - but it is good to still see the 13.8% SwStr% and 47% GB%. He’s more of a “fine” fantasy starter right now rather than someone who can flirt with being an ace for stretches like we’ve seen in the past.
The curveball has pretty similar numbers to the last few years besides it going for a ball more often. Maybe hitters are just seeing it better or he’s missing his spots more with it, I don’t know - but it’s still not a bad pitch and he’s throwing it more than ever:
All of these screenshots are from the MLB Savant History dashboard which paid subs have access to.
Seth Lugo pitched really well in Coors last night with seven innings and nine strikeouts allowing just five hits and two runs. He has been very good since returning from the IL, but the key point here is to look at what the Rockies are rolling out there now. Here are the season stats on the lineup they rolled out last night:
Maybe Rodgers will prove to be a decent hitter (he made his 2023 debut last night), but there’s only one OPS above .750 here. At some point, a lineup gets bad enough to make Coors Field a neutral site for road pitchers. Like if me and eight of my buddies went out there to play for the Rockies, you would obviously start whatever pitcher we were up against. The ballpark can only do so much! So that will be interesting to see how road pitchers do in Coors moving forward - I don’t think we’re at the point where you just automatically bench pitchers in Denver.
J.P. France ripped off his 9th quality start in his last 10. But in the Majors he has just a 17% K% to go with the decent 7% BB%. The 9.9% SwStr% is quite bad and the GB% isn’t through the roof at just 45%. So I’m not sure how he’s managed this. The .320 xwOBA is good but not amazing, and the .276 BABIP isn’t far from expectations either.
He does have quite good Stuff+ marks, so maybe that means something - but it hasn’t manifested in him getting whiffs.
Just like a lot of other things that happen in France, J.P. is mysterious and should not be trusted!
Corbin Burnes had another bad SwStr% yesterday at 8.4%. Only eight whiffs and a 5:3 K:BB in six innings. His final line was fine, but it’s discouraging that he can’t consistently deliver whiffs like he had in the past.
There’s nothing to do with him in fantasy for the rest of this year other than start him, but who knows - maybe he’s a sell in dynasty leagues?
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Glasnow (vs. NYY): 30.75 Points
2. Nick Pivetta (vs. SEA): 27.49 Points
3. Seth Lugo (vs. COL): 24.95 Points
4. J.P. France (vs. CLE): 22.35 Points
5. Kyle Gibson (vs. TOR): 21.9 Points
6. George Kirby (vs. BOS): 19.65 Points
7. Chase Silseth (vs. ATL): 19.45 Points
8. Taijuan Walker (vs. MIA): 18.21 Points
9. Charlie Morton (vs. LAA): 18.1 Points
10. Domingo German (vs. TB): 16.85 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 23 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
2. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 17 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
3. Seth Lugo (SD): 16 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
4. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 13 Whiffs (113 Pitches)
5. George Kirby (SEA): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
6. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 12 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
7. Kyle Gibson (BAL): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Domingo German (NYY): 10 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
9. Reynaldo Lopez (LAA): 10 Whiffs (37 Pitches)
10. Chase Silseth (LAA): 10 Whiffs (63 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby (SEA): 52.6 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
2. Jhony Brito (NYY): 49.3 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
3. Seth Lugo (SD): 49.0 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
4. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 49.0 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
5. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 48.9 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
6. Domingo German (NYY): 48.6 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
7. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 47.8 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
8. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 46.3 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
9. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 46.1 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%
10. Charlie Morton (ATL): 45.7 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
11. Kyle Gibson (BAL): 45.4 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
12. Austin Gomber (COL): 44.6 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
13. Chase Silseth (LAA): 44.4 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
14. J.P. France (HOU): 43.3 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
15. Jake Irvin (WSH): 42.4 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Taijuan Walker’s velo has been all over the map this year. Here’s a little Python code to plot pitch velo for you:
Gross date labeling there but forgive me!
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jhony Brito's CH velo (23 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 90.5
J.P. France's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.4
Edward Cabrera's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.8
Noah Syndergaard's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 79.3
Noah Syndergaard's SI velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.9
Chase Silseth's SI velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 95.6
Chase Silseth's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 81.2
Austin Gomber's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.5
Taijuan Walker's FC velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.3
Austin Gomber's FF velo (43 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 89.1
Taijuan Walker's FF velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.5
Taijuan Walker's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 90.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Javier Assad's SI usage (43.5%) up 15.5 points
Noah Syndergaard's FF usage (23.5%) up 10.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +20.9%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -20.5%
Ryan Walker Slider: +20.5%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -18.9%
Luis Medina Sinker: +18.6%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +16.8%
Martin Perez Sinker: +16.2%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
Jake Irvin Sinker: -15.2%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -14.7%
Martin Perez Changeup: -14.6%
Michael Grove Cutter: +14.5%
Brandon Bielak 4-Seam Fastball: +13.0%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.6%
Adrian Houser Slider: +12.6%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +12.5%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Bryce Miller Slider: +12.2%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Woah baby George Kirby on the top K%! Game logs since June began:
He was bolstered by facing Minnesota twice in a row, but he went and struck out seven Red Sox last night to keep the K% pretty high. The 12.4% SwStr% is more telling there though, I don’t think he’s anywhere near a 30% K% guy - but it’s been a good run! But two walks last night what the hell?
Kyle Gibson has a 63% GB% over the last three weeks. In his first 11 starts, he had a 46% GB%, and over the last 11, he’s at 53%. The pitch mix hasn’t changed, so I don’t think we can really read into this - but it’s something! If you really find a pitcher with a 60%+ GB%, that’s automatically someone to at least consider adding in fantasy. I just don’t think Gibson is really more than a 50% GB% guy moving forward.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 71 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 37.2% CSW%
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 74 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 64 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 100 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Julio Urias - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 44.0% K%
Nick Pivetta - 67 TBF, 43.3% K%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 37.1% K%
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 35.8% K%
Kenta Maeda - 85 TBF, 35.3% K%
Luis Castillo - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 34.3% K%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 34.2% K%
George Kirby - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 41.3% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 67 TBF, 38.8% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 91 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
George Kirby - 89 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Kenta Maeda - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Gibson - 100 TBF, 63.5% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Justin Steele - 80 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Brayan Bello - 68 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 85 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 71 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Johan Oviedo - 66 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 75 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 29.9 K%, 3.9 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 34.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 58.2% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 35.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 37.1 K%, 2.9 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Luis Medina - 64 TBF, 28.1 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Seth Lugo - 100 TBF, 29.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 44.6% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 63 TBF, 27.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 56 TBF, 28.6 K%, 1.8 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 31.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Justin Steele - +2.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Brady Singer - +4.9% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.7% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +5.0% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Logan Allen - +3.8% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Michael Grove - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +2.7% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Luis Medina - +2.4% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Drew Smyly - +3.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Matt Manning - +4.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Nick Martinez - +3.3% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Griffin Canning - +7.6% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Jose Quintana - +3.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Joey Wiemer (MIL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Wilmer Flores (SF) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Alex Call, Yesterday: 110.3 Previous High: 109.3
Isan Diaz, Yesterday: 112.0 Previous High: 109.0
Keibert Ruiz, Yesterday: 110.1 Previous High: 109.4
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 113.3mph - single
Isan Diaz (SF) - 112.0mph - foul
Luke Raley (TB) - 111.8mph - double
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 111.0mph - single
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 110.7mph - foul
Mike Moustakas (LAA) - 110.7mph - field_out
Elehuris Montero (COL) - 110.4mph - single
Alex Call (WSH) - 110.3mph - foul
Keibert Ruiz (WSH) - 110.1mph - field_out
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 109.8mph - field_out
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been quite unlucky lately, and went 0/5 in Coors last night - that hurts! Big drop in the wOBA lately without a drop in the xwOBA:
Matt McLain has been going the opposite way, keeping the wOBA up without a good xwOBA. He might be a decent sell for the rest of the season, but it’s probably too late for that since we’re into August. I really like the underlying numbers on him, and he’ll play a bunch of games in hot weather in Cincinnati, so I still think he’s a must-start guy and you should probably just ride it out and hope for the best.
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Corey Julks - 58 PA, 0.127 wOBA, 0.272 xwOBA, 0.145 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 86 PA, 0.255 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.101 Diff
Matt Thaiss - 59 PA, 0.248 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, 0.096 Diff
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 72 PA, 0.227 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Mike Yastrzemski - 56 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff
Patrick Bailey - 67 PA, 0.189 wOBA, 0.252 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Brandon Nimmo - 74 PA, 0.254 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 60 PA, 0.254 wOBA, 0.310 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Miguel Rojas - 62 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 66 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Bottom 10
Whit Merrifield - 79 PA, 0.431 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, -0.148 Diff
Alek Thomas - 56 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.213 xwOBA, -0.133 Diff
Will Benson - 59 PA, 0.438 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.127 Diff
Rafael Devers - 61 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.300 xwOBA, -0.118 Diff
Matt McLain - 79 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.290 xwOBA, -0.116 Diff
Nathaniel Lowe - 78 PA, 0.471 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 82 PA, 0.468 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Taylor Ward - 67 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Jarren Duran - 62 PA, 0.405 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Jeimer Candelario - 65 PA, 0.382 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Austin Riley - 64 PA, 45 BIP, 13 Brls, 28.9 Brl%
Triston Casas - 50 PA, 31 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.8 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 64 PA, 31 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.8 Brl%
Edouard Julien - 58 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 59 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Jake Burger - 60 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Max Muncy - 68 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Mike Ford - 48 PA, 20 BIP, 4 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 54 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 49 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Triston Casas - 50 PA, 0.519 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 64 PA, 0.488 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 64 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 54 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 69 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 70 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 72 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Edouard Julien - 58 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 62 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Chas McCormick - 65 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 68 PA, 134 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 58 PA, 104 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 80 PA, 112 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 57 PA, 89 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 58 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 41 PA, 67 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 53 PA, 86 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 74 PA, 102 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 71 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 57 PA, 99 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jarren Duran - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Willi Castro - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Zack Gelof - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Lane Thomas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Seiya Suzuki - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jake Fraley - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Oscar Colas - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Bryson Stott - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Forrest Wall - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 16 Attempts (16 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
Willi Castro - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Jarren Duran - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Alex Call - 7 Attempts (3 steals)
Jake Fraley - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Jose Caballero - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Tony Kemp - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
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