MLB Daily Notes - August 22nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Pitchers - Yesterday
Luis Castillo Dash Six Two Two Four Nine One went off last night against the White Sox. That was all-in-all pretty predictable, but he did not disappoint.
15.8% SwStr%, 58.6% Strike%, .500 OPS allowed, .228 xwOBA
For the season now
16.3% SwStr%, 50.2% Strike%, 33.3% Ball%, 27.6% K%, 5.8% BB%
Elite season for Castillo, and it has turned out that escaping Cincinnati has been a positive for his career.
He went really heavy four-seamer yesterday and racked up a 17.2% SwStr% on the pitch.
For the season he’s used the four-seamer just 43% of the time with the slider at 23%, the sinker at 18%, and the changeup at 16%.
It’s funny how he’s evolved as a pitcher. I remember early on with him it was all about the changeup. The changeup was one of the best pitches in the game, and it was only a matter of him setting that up somehow - and the fastballs were not good. Now look at him! 60%+ fastball usage (FF/SI) and throwing the changeup under 20%.
I refreshed and loaded up the Statcast History dashboard and it turns out the pitch usage isn’t all that much different:
He’s always led the arsenal with the four-seamer, but the changeup usage did peak up to 30% in 2021, and now it’s down to 16%. The big difference for him over the years has been the improvement on the four-seamer. He was down at 9-10% on the SwStr% in the early years but now he’s way up there to a huge 19%, the best mark in the league.
No reason to think he’ll be slowing down now, and good to see the Mariners in the playoff picture as well.
Watch out Bailey Falter came in after an opener and pooped all over the red birds.
Lots of strikes, but a low 11.1% SwStr%, but a great 54% GB%!
6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 2 BB
You don’t see a high strikeout number with an 11% SwStr% very often, but Falter is #Tall and #LeftHanded which can #help with #deception. #IThink.
I looked at the pitch clustering data on him but then realized that nobody really cares about Bailey Falter right now, so let’s move on (here’s that pitch clustering data though).
Jordan Montgomery had another big one:
8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 17.4% SwStr%
That came with a very low 42.4% Strike% though, so a little bit strange there. He must have gotten a lot of chases!
And he did! I wonder if chase rates are sticky… I’ve never even looked into that. I would suspect they aren’t super sticky, but it’s something worth checking. We did talk about chases a little bit last week and made that new data file, which I already forgot about it until right now, so here’s the updated leaders (10+ GS)
Kyle Hendricks 19.3%
Joe Musgrove 18.3%
Merrill Kelly 18.2%
Edward Cabrera 18.0%
Kevin Gausman 17.5%
Pablo Lopez 17.3%
Paul Blackburn 17.2%
Domingo German 17.2%
Bailey Ober 17.2%
Spencer Strider 17.1%
Not exactly a list of aces, but not many bad arms on the list either. It would make sense that certain pitch types would get chases more often than others, so we can hit the Python code to figure that one out:
Those first three pitches are all pretty similar, pitches that look like fastballs but then drop before reaching the strike zone. Makes a lot of sense that those would get the most chases, and they are well ahead.
When we look at this by Pitch Group, it really answers the question for us:
Offspeed = Changeups, Splitters, Forkballs
Breaking = Sliders, Sweepers, Curveballs
Fastballs = 4-Seamers, Sinkers, Cutters
I would say that a pitcher that throws fewer fastballs would get more chases. There are a lot of changeups in that top 10, so I think we’ve explained most of it at this point.
And I would say that Chase% isn’t a very good stat to go to to learn about a pitcher. It’s a decent like tertiary thing to know, but it’s not all that important and I really doubt it’s predictive of much at all - but it deserves more investigation.
James Paxton got hit around:
4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 4 K, 3 BB
His first 8 starts:
50 IP, 15.6% SwStr%, 50.4% Strike%, 34.8% Ball%, 24.5% K-BB%, .282 xwOBA
Last 8 starts:
40 IP, 13.0% SwStr%, 48.2% Strike%, 34.1% Ball%, 12.6% K-BB%, .294 xwOBA
So he’s doing worse. The K% is down to 19.7% over these last eight, which just isn’t going to work - but he does still have a solid enough 13% SwStr% even while he’s been bad.
It was too good to be true what he was doing at the beginning!
The DFS pitching slate was hilarious last night, so many people went after Drew Rom and Allan Winans and they both sucked massively, which helped guys like me who played Luis Castillo and Alec Marsh cash pretty easily. I turned my $10 to $25 in the $10 Hundo contest. It didn’t even fill, which happens somewhat often with these Hundo contests.
I can’t say enough about these Hundos, man. Here’s how they work
100 entrants
10% Rake
Guaranteed to run
Most contests you see 15-17% rake, so you’re getting a huge edge on the rake right off the bat. And then last night, it only pulled in 91 entrants, but the overall prize pool doesn’t change - DraftKings just pays it.
So in this $10 one we had
$1000 guaranteed in payouts ($10 * 100)
$910 paid by players ($10 * 91)
That makes for -9% rake. DraftKings was just chucking in $90 for us to divvy up, it was glorious. I shouldn’t even be saying this because now you guys will fill up these spots!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. CWS): 32.75 Points
2. Bailey Falter (vs. STL): 28.5 Points
3. Jordan Montgomery (vs. ARI): 27.0 Points
4. Michael Wacha (vs. MIA): 23.79 Points
5. Alec Marsh (vs. OAK): 21.16 Points
6. Aaron Nola (vs. SF): 20.95 Points
7. Paul Blackburn (vs. KC): 18.5 Points
8. Collin McHugh (vs. NYM): 15.69 Points
9. Alex Faedo (vs. CHC): 14.5 Points
10. Phil Bickford (vs. ATL): 12.39 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jordan Montgomery (TEX): 16 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
2. Alec Marsh (KC): 15 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Luis Castillo (SEA): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
4. James Paxton (BOS): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
5. Michael Wacha (SD): 12 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
6. David Peterson (NYM): 11 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Casey Lawrence (STL): 11 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
8. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 11 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
9. Collin McHugh (ATL): 10 Whiffs (48 Pitches)
10. Aaron Nola (PHI): 10 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sean Manaea (SF): 58.3 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
2. Luis Castillo (SEA): 56.8 Strike%, 25.3 Ball%
3. Allan Winans (ATL): 53.2 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
4. Bailey Falter (PIT): 53.1 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
5. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 51.2 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
6. Michael Wacha (SD): 51.1 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
7. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 49.3 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
8. Aaron Nola (PHI): 48.0 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
9. Casey Lawrence (STL): 46.7 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
10. Sean Hjelle (SF): 46.7 Strike%, 21.7 Ball%
11. James Paxton (BOS): 46.5 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
12. Alec Marsh (KC): 45.6 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
13. Chris Murphy (BOS): 45.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
14. Ryan Weathers (MIA): 43.4 Strike%, 45.8 Ball%
15. Javier Assad (CHC): 42.9 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Falter's FF velo (34 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 92.2
Sean Manaea's ST velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 78.9
Alec Marsh's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 84.5
Alex Faedo's SL velo (35 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 80.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
James Paxton's CU usage (29.7%) up 11.6 points
Jordan Montgomery's CH usage (38.0%) up 14.3 points
Luis Castillo's FF usage (61.1%) up 18.5 points
Sean Manaea's ST usage (23.3%) up 18.4 points
Slade Cecconi's FF usage (66.7%) up 12.5 points
Can’t believe I haven’t noticed this Bryce Miller change. Remember he was throwing the four-seamer like 70% of the time early on? He’s changed that!
He has a sinker now:
In these last three starts, he’s used it 22% of the time, bringing that four-seam usage down to 45%:
And that has worked nicely. It has brought the GB% up to 40% (previously 33%), and that has helped the xwOBA and Brl% stuff. That’s very, very interesting - and a great sign for us drafting him next season.
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bryce Miller Sinker: +20.8%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -20.5%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -19.3%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -19.0%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +18.1%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -18.0%
JP Sears Slider: +17.9%
Jon Gray Slider: +17.5%
Ryan Walker Slider: +17.4%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -17.4%
Luis Severino Cutter: +16.2%
Kenta Maeda 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.8%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +15.8%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +15.1%
Logan Webb Changeup: +14.8%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -14.1%
Austin Gomber Slider: +13.9%
Bailey Falter Slider: +13.6%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -13.5%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -13.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -13.1%
Patrick Sandoval Sinker: +12.9%
Logan Webb Sinker: -12.9%
Johan Oviedo Slider: -12.3%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 94 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 101 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Julio Urias - 91 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 68 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 69 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Adrian Houser - 89 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 78 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 94 TBF, 39.4% K%
Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 36.4% K%
Cole Ragans - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0% K%
Sonny Gray - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Max Scherzer - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%
Nick Pivetta - 80 TBF, 31.2% K%
Chase Silseth - 68 TBF, 30.9% K%
Brandon Williamson - 91 TBF, 30.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 94 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Gavin Williams - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Brandon Williamson - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 96 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 101 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 99 TBF, 23.2% K-BB%
Jordan Montgomery - 100 TBF, 23.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 107 TBF, 63.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 72 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Max Fried - 91 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 111 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 97 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 72 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Brayan Bello - 98 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 92 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 89 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Andrew Heaney - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Brandon Williamson - 91 TBF, 30.8 K%, 5.5 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Cole Ragans - 101 TBF, 32.7 K%, 7.9 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0 K%, 4.9 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Julio Urias - 91 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.2 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Michael King - 48 TBF, 35.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 96 TBF, 28.1 K%, 3.1 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Pedro Avila - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.6 BB%, 53.1% GB%
Sonny Gray - 101 TBF, 31.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zack Thompson - 57 TBF, 31.6 K%, 3.5 BB%, 54.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Dane Dunning - +5.1% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Mitch Keller - +4.5% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Julio Urias - +2.9% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Adrian Houser - +7.6% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Sandy Alcantara - +3.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +4.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Pablo Lopez - +2.1% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Ken Waldichuk - +4.2% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Jake Irvin - +3.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +5.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Kenta Maeda - +2.1% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Drew Smyly - +4.4% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Cole Irvin - +3.3% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Michael King - +6.9% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Hitters
Bobby Witt Jr. now has a .281 batting average with 25 homers and 37 steals, he’s the #7 hitter on the player rater for the season - and he’s #1 over the last 30 days (9 HR, 10 SB, .391 AVG). He’s a clear top 3 pick next season IMO, and he could benefit a bunch by the return of Vinnie Pasquantino and maybe some other additions the Royals might make this offseason - it would seem to be a reasonable time for them to try something there with a lot of these young hitters coming into their primes.
Cal Raleigh also has been going nuclear of late, hitting 13 homers in his 129 PAs since the break. That puts him behind only Matt Olson and tied with Riley and Alonso. He’s still striking out a bunch (35%), but the 21% Brl% has made it work.
We see Oscar Colas with two barrels. He’s had a disappointing year given some of the hype we had on him in the spring.
204 PA, .217/.255/.302, 3 HR, 7.3% Brl%, 27.5% K%, 4.9% BB%
Multiple Barrels
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Chas McCormick (HOU) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Joc Pederson (SF) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Oscar Colas (CWS) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Joc Pederson (SF) - 113.0mph - foul
Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 111.9mph - home_run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.8mph - home_run
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF) - 111.8mph - foul
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 111.7mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.7mph - field_out
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 111.6mph - foul
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.4mph - home_run
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) - 111.4mph - foul
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 110.9mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jose Ramirez - 60 PA, 0.228 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, 0.12 Diff
Joc Pederson - 59 PA, 0.282 wOBA, 0.39 xwOBA, 0.108 Diff
Juan Soto - 82 PA, 0.301 wOBA, 0.409 xwOBA, 0.108 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 83 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.396 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.356 wOBA, 0.457 xwOBA, 0.101 Diff
Francisco Alvarez - 61 PA, 0.247 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 0.327 wOBA, 0.393 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Salvador Perez - 74 PA, 0.322 wOBA, 0.388 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Mickey Moniak - 58 PA, 0.156 wOBA, 0.216 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Max Kepler - 62 PA, 0.399 wOBA, 0.457 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Bottom 10
Johan Rojas - 61 PA, 0.337 wOBA, 0.205 xwOBA, -0.132 Diff
Cody Bellinger - 74 PA, 0.447 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, -0.128 Diff
Elvis Andrus - 65 PA, 0.402 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, -0.125 Diff
Jose Altuve - 84 PA, 0.45 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Kerry Carpenter - 76 PA, 0.503 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 92 PA, 0.371 wOBA, 0.269 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 64 PA, 0.325 wOBA, 0.228 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Keibert Ruiz - 70 PA, 0.44 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Jake Burger - 75 PA, 0.432 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
George Springer - 70 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Brl Leaders since 7/1
Torkelson 24
Betts 24
Ohtani 23
Riley 23
Tatis Jr. 22
Machado 21
Seager 21
Hernandez 20
Alonso 20
Olson 20
Witt Jr. 20
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 50 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.0 Brl%
Max Kepler - 62 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Ryan Jeffers - 49 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 78 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 79 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Nolan Jones - 74 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 89 PA, 55 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.8 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 78 PA, 58 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Mookie Betts - 78 PA, 0.473 xwOBA
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 62 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 71 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 73 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 78 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Stone Garrett - 53 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 96 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Zack Gelof - 77 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Keibert Ruiz - 70 PA, 120 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 49 PA, 82 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 60 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Brice Turang - 62 PA, 111 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 65 PA, 109 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 70 PA, 129 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
TJ Friedl - 62 PA, 112 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 92 PA, 180 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 77 PA, 159 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 82 PA, 149 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Caballero - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Cade Marlowe - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Sal Frelick - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Marcus Semien - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Gleyber Torres - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Akil Baddoo - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Matt McLain - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Julio Rodriguez - 15 Attempts (11 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Jose Altuve - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Lane Thomas - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
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