MLB Daily Notes - August 22nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Andrew Heaney led the day in whiffs with 22.
5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 8 K, 1 BB, 51.1% Strike%, 35.6% Ball%
He has had a bit of a resurgent year with the Rangers:
25 GS, 129.1 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 23.5% K%, 6.5% BB%
The problem for [some] fantasy leagues is that he almost never gets through six innings. His innings breakdown:
>=7 IP: 2 times
6 IP: 5 times
<6+ IP: 19 times
So he’s given himself a chance for a quality start just 28% of the time.
Garrett Crochet:
57 pitches, 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, 19.3% SwStr%, 47.4% Strike%
His innings counts since July began:
4, 4, 3, 4, 2.1, 4, 4
It would appear that you’re not going to get any wins the rest of the way, and probably only 4-5 innings per week. In some leagues, it’s still fine. If you can benefit from four very good innings per week with no wins, then Crochet is a good option. But in most leagues, I feel like the opportunity cost it too great. You’re using an SP spot on him when you could be using guys who can potentially help a lot more.
Things have gone south for Logan Gilbert recently. He gave up six earned runs last night and that makes 17 in his last five starts.
First 21 starts: 6 W, 2.72 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 25% K%, 4.9% BB%, .97 HR/9
Last 5 starts: 1 W, 5.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 26.8% K%, 4.5% BB%, 1.01 HR/9
An improved K-BB%, but a way worse ERA. That’s suspect! His SIERA over the last 30 days is 3.05, while the ERA is at 4.86 - so a lot of really bad luck here. Keep starting Gilbert with confidence.
Max Fried bounced back with a nice outing:
7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 K, 1 BB, 7.7% SwStr%, 46.2% Strike%, 33% Ball%
The SwStr% was bad, but that’s not super uncommon for Fried. He’s never been a guy that gets it done by blowing people away. He limits walks, avoids homers, and keeps the ball on the ground. And that’s what he did last night - so it’s a good sign. The key number there is just that one walk. He had been walking guys like crazy since returning from the IL, but that stopped last night:
The Phillies took game two of that series 3-2. I’m really hoping we see that matchup in the playoffs again. What I want to see, as of right now, is this:
Padres vs. Dodgers
Phillies vs. Braves
Yankees vs. Orioles
And then I want the Dodgers to play the Yankees in the World Series. I can’t believe I’m saying that. I have completely abandoned my “root for the little guy” stand. The old JA would be hoping to see something weird like Diamondbacks vs. Royals. But screw that. I want to see Judge and Soto and Cole and Ohtani and Freeman and Betts and Yamamoto and Glasnow and all those guys. Rich get richer, I don’t care - it doesn’t bother me. Bring it on.
Johnny Cueto is somehow back in the Major Leagues.
6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 K, 2 BB, 3.6% SwStr%, 35.7% Strike%
Those are awful numbers overall, but a quality start!
He’s made a dozen starts in AAA this year:
4.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 17.2% K%, 5.0% BB%, 1.32 HR/9
It’s too obvious to even state, but yeah - he doesn’t have it anymore. It must be cool for some minor league dudes to get to say they faced Johnny Cueto (and probably gotten a hit or two off of him), but some part of me feels bad for guys like this.
The gut instinct is to be like: “Why wouldn’t you just retire and not end your career in embarrassing fashion?”.
But then you think about it for a few seconds, and you realize that all these guys have ever done is play baseball. That’s what they do, and that’s presumedly what they love. So I can’t blame them for continuing to do the thing they’ve always done for as long as someone will employ them to do it. It’s also not like these guys are actually old, either. Cueto is 38. He’s got probably 50 more years to live. Why start the next part of your life before you have to when you still have that much life ahead of you.
Gut instincts are often correct, and there’s something to be said for intuition - but in this case, my gut instinct was stupid.
To talk more controversially, every time I see one of these guys making a Major League start (Dallas Keuchel has made starts, Rich Hill just got signed…), I think about Trevor Bauer. He’s been doing everything he can to try to get back in the Majors, and no team will take him. And I doubt there’s a single team who doesn’t think he’d be an upgrade to their rotation.
Most of the world is pretty polarized on Bauer. Either they think he should never be allowed in the Majors again and should be thrown in prison and disgraced for the rest of his life. Or they think he did nothing wrong and is being unfairly blackballed, and it’s all one big injustice. Those are the two sides, generally.
I’m sitting on the fence here. I think both sides are right. There’s clearly some league-wide agreement that nobody should sign him, and it’s probably fair to even use the term “blackballed”. But that’s not an immoral thing to do. This is a largely private industry, and there are more considerations than just what a guy can do on the field. Bauer clearly is a controversial name, and I understand a team not wanting to bring that kind of guy into their brand.
My bigger point is this: you’re taking a huge risk professionally and spiritually by participating in the hook-up culture. There are people out there who will exploit you and ruin your life for a payday, and you open yourself up to that when you start doing this sexual stuff with random people.
To go even deeper, and this goes fully into the spiritual side of things - I think it’s wrong to have sex with someone you’re not in a committed relationship with, regardless of consent. As a man, having sex with a girl in a hook-up situation is objectifying her even if she consents to it. You shouldn’t do that; men have more of a responsibility to women than that.
I have certainly lost a lot of you with that, this is not a popular opinion these days - but there is no doubt that the world would be a much better place if less of this stuff was happening.
So, I don’t care what happens with Bauer in terms of his employment.
Hitter Review
To get back to my newfound love of the Evil Empire, I am in full-on Aaron Judge defense mode (he homered twice last night, by the way). A lot of my love for Judge revolves around the fact that I have him on my home league team, but nonetheless - I would be defending him from these recent attacks.
The take from hater Red Sox and Orioles fans is that Judge only hits homers on pitches down the middle. Imagine that.
So first thing - let’s see if it’s true. Here are the pitch locations of all of his homers:
So that’s 16 of his 47 (34%) homers being straight down the pipe. A meatball, if you will.
League-wide for righties, that number is 23.8%.
It’s certainly interesting that Judge hasn’t homered at the top of the zone a single time this year. He’s finished an AB 45 times on a pitch in that top section of the strike zone, and that has turned into this:
.079 AVG, .132 SLG, 9.5% Brl%, .100 xAVG, .212 xwOBA
Comparing that to league averages:
.240 AVG, .420 SLG, 8.9% Brl%, .236 xAVG, .285 xwOBA
So he’s been legitimately bad at the top of the zone. We’re talking about 45 data points here, so this doesn’t mean much by itself. If we look at what Judge did against high strikes last year:
.333 AVG, .974 SLG, 8 HR, 41.7% Brl%, .542 xwOBA
He was elite against those pitches last year. That suggests this is just noise here in the 45 ABs this year.
The bigger point is this. Almost all homers are hit on pitches that weren’t located well. Last year, I had pitch-by-pitch Location+ data, thanks to Drew. I don’t have it this year, but we can use last year as our example.
Average Location+ Breakdown - 2023
All Pitches: 100
Out of Zone: 74
In Zone: 127
On Homers: 116
If the pitch is in the strike zone, it’s Location+ is above 100, so we can’t use 100 as the baseline. We compare the average strike to the average home run and see a huge gap there. Pitches hit out of the ballpark are ten points worse in Location+ than the average strike, a huge margin.
The response to “Most of Aaron Judge’s homers are on bad pitches!” is just “The same is true of every player to ever play baseball”.
What separates Judge is how elite he is at punishing mistakes.
SLG on Meatballs, 2023-2024
Judge 1.239
Raley 1.125
Ohtani 1.123
Ozuna 1.085
Buxton 1.065
S Murphy 1.468
Schwarber .1464
Casas 1.393
B Lowe .1425
K Carpenter .1410
Seager 1.388
Rooker 1.402
Harper 1.370
Gorman 1.345
Guerrero Jr. 1.363
League = .634
Judge is doubling up the league average. If we the meatballs out of the picture (so this is all pitches except the ones middle-middle), Judge is third-best in the league since last year with a .552 SLG.
Ohtani .568
Betts .562
Judge .552
Yordan .544
R Lewis .539
Acuna .521
K Marte .517
Ozuna .516
Freeman .514
Eguy Rosario .514
League = .380
So the anti-Judge bro’s do have a point - he has done a disproportionate amount of his damage on pitches down the middle this year - but their point is stupid. It’s not a feature of his career - it’s not going to continue to be the case in the future. It’s just a noisy data point this year.
And even if it was a real thing, like even if Judge couldn’t do anything with pitches at the top of the zone - so what? Then you would tell pitchers, “Hey, pitch him only at the top of the zone”. But guess what - easier said than done! No pitcher has ever tried to throw Judge a pitch right down the middle. It’s not something anyone is ever trying to do - but pitching is really freaking hard, and you make mistakes all the time.
Let’s dig more into that point. I think it’s fair to say that in non-three-ball counts, no pitcher is ever trying to hit the middle of the zone. And yet, they hit the middle of the zone 7.1% of the time. It’s the most common in-zone location to hit, even in counts where you don’t have to throw a strike.
So there is no world in which Judge doesn’t see several meatball pitches per week, and he’s probably a top-ten hitter in league history at hitting those pitches.
There you have it - my full defense of Aaron Judge.
Another big game for Elly De La Cruz with a homer and a steal. That brings his season to this:
541 PA, .262/.345/.493, 22 HR, 60 SB
Fantastic season, he is a clear-as-day first-rounder next season. It's probably even a top-five pick.
Most Games with a Homer and a Steal, 2024
Ohtani 8
Elly 6
Lindor 6
Luis Garcia 5
Henderson 5
Steer 4
Chisholm 4
Duran 4
Nolan Arenado hit a walk-off grand slam. I have hardly mentioned him all season in the notes; in fact, this could be the first time. But the walk-off granny deserves a shout. His season:
497 PA, .267/.322/.402, 14 HR, 2 SB, 53 R, 59 RBI
That’s pretty awful. The 100-RBI days are long gone for Arenado now.
The Arenado of the American League is Alex Bregman, and he also homered yesterday. Bregman has come to life in a big way of late.
Full Season: .261/.318/.450, 13% K%, 20 HR
Second Half: .279/.324/.577, 12% K%, 8 HR
August: .333/.367/.737, 12% K%, 6 HR
So that’s 30% of his homers in the last three weeks. He smells that free agency coming.
Other interesting names with dingers yesterday:
Jake McCarthy
Jake Burger
Jackson Chourio
These three have been absolute studs in the second half. Burger has 15 homers in the second half to lead the league. Chourio is hitting .348 with six homers and eight steals. McCarthy is hitting .356 with five homers and five steals.
A few more:
Kerry Carpenter
Edouard Julien (he’s back!)
Noelvi Marte
Riley Greene (he’s also back!)
Greene and Carpenter have both missed a lot of time to injury, but have been great while on the field:
Greene: 439 PA, .261/.353/.483, 26% K%, 12% BB%, 18 HR
Carpenter: 189 PA, .277/.328/.590, 26% K%, 6% BB%, 12 HR
Those two plus Skubal and guys like Jackson Jobe, Jace Jung, and Colt Keith give the Tigers a young core that is better than people think. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them making some noise in the next few years - especially since we have seen them be willing to spend some money in free agency.
Noelvi Marte’s season:
160 PA, .191/.225/.316, 4 HR, 5 SB, 31% K%, 2.5% BB%
Not great, Bob! He’ll be an interesting speculative option in drafts next year. The skills are there. His savant page is entirely blue except for bat speed and sprint speed. He is very fast and swings the bat very hard, so the tools are there, and I would still be investing in him in dynasty leagues.
Luis Robert has shown some life in the last few days. He hit two homers last Friday and had two hits and two steals yesterday. The strikeouts have been a big issue for him this year. He’s at a 36% K% for the year, and it’s 43% in the second half. I still don’t see how you can bench him, though. This could continue the rest of the way - maybe he’s hurt, or maybe he’s just mailed it in for the year after not getting traded. But the better bet is that he’ll be pretty good in terms of homers and steals for the last seven weeks or whatever we have left - at least good enough to beat out whoever you’d pick up when you drop him.
Alrighty, there are your daily notes for the day! I got a lot out there. Have a blessed Thursday.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Andrew Heaney
2. Ryan Pepiot
3. Sean Manaea
4. Nestor Cortes
5. Garrett Crochet
6. Logan Webb
7. Mitchell Parker
8. Justin Verlander
9. Simeon Woods Richardson
10. Mitch Spence
11. Domingo German
12. Logan Gilbert
13. Jordan Montgomery
14. Jameson Taillon
15. Tobias Myers
16. Jack Flaherty
17. Joey Cantillo
18. Yariel Rodriguez
19. Max Fried
20. Tanner Gordon
21. Michael Lorenzen
22. Nick Martinez
23. Aaron Nola
24. Kyle Gibson
25. Matt Waldron
26. Roddery Munoz
27. Cooper Criswell
28. Cole Irvin
29. Johnny Cueto
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Michael Lorenzen (vs. LAA): 26.15 Points
2. Mitchell Parker (vs. COL): 26.15 Points
3. Nestor Cortes (vs. CLE): 25.95 Points
4. Sean Manaea (vs. BAL): 25.95 Points
5. Simeon Woods Richardson (vs. SD): 24.25 Points
6. Andrew Heaney (vs. PIT): 23.65 Points
7. Logan Webb (vs. CWS): 23.0 Points
8. Mitch Spence (vs. TB): 22.95 Points
9. Jack Flaherty (vs. SEA): 21.16 Points
10. Ryan Pepiot (vs. OAK): 21.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 22 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
2. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 18 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Mitch Spence (OAK): 16 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
4. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 15 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
5. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Logan Webb (SF): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Sean Manaea (NYM): 13 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 13 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
9. Jordan Montgomery (ARI): 12 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
10. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 11 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 56.4 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
2. Sean Manaea (NYM): 55.6 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
3. Tobias Myers (MIL): 51.7 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
4. Justin Verlander (HOU): 51.3 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
5. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 51.1 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
6. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 50.6 Strike%, 26.5 Ball%
7. Mitch Spence (OAK): 49.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 49.0 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
9. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 47.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
10. Logan Webb (SF): 47.3 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
11. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 47.1 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
12. Max Fried (ATL): 46.2 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
13. Yariel Rodriguez (TOR): 46.0 Strike%, 41.4 Ball%
14. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 46.0 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
15. Matt Waldron (SD): 45.7 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Mitchell Parker: 83 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.95 POUT
2. Logan Webb: 93 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.04 POUT
3. Domingo German: 75 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.17 POUT
4. Sean Manaea: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
5. Max Fried: 91 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.33 POUT
6. Johnny Cueto: 84 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.42 POUT
7. Michael Lorenzen: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
8. Garrett Crochet: 57 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.75 POUT
9. Nestor Cortes: 104 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.95 POUT
10. Mitch Spence: 105 Pitches, 21 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.6
Logan Gilbert's FF velo (24 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 97.8
Mitch Spence's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.6
Justin Verlander's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.3
Sean Manaea's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.7
Yariel Rodriguez's FF velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.4
Tanner Gordon's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.6
Cole Irvin's SI velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.1
Domingo German's CU velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 81.0
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.0
Jameson Taillon's SI velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 91.6
Sean Manaea's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.3
Mitchell Parker's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 78.4
Domingo German's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 83.4
Jameson Taillon's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 78.0
Domingo German's FF velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 89.4
Johnny Cueto's CH velo (21 pitches) DOWN -3.3mph to 80.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cole Irvin's CU usage (34.9%) up 14.7 points
Cooper Criswell's SI usage (50.0%) up 19.9 points
Cooper Criswell's SL usage (13.8%) up 13.2 points
Johnny Cueto's SI usage (42.9%) up 19.7 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (25.0%) up 12.2 points
Logan Gilbert's SL usage (44.0%) up 13.1 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (29.0%) up 17.9 points
Nick Martinez's FF usage (33.7%) up 15.6 points
Roddery Munoz's FF usage (37.0%) up 10.1 points
Roddery Munoz's SL usage (35.6%) up 15.7 points
Sean Manaea's SI usage (43.3%) up 16.0 points
Sean Manaea's ST usage (26.7%) up 11.6 points
Tanner Gordon's FF usage (54.2%) up 10.4 points
Yariel Rodriguez's SL usage (40.2%) up 12.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bowden Francis Curveball: -21.6%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -19.0%
JP Sears Sweeper: -17.5%
Bailey Falter Slider: +16.7%
Martin Perez Curveball: +16.7%
Tanner Gordon Sinker: -16.4%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +16.3%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +16.0%
Tanner Gordon 4-Seam Fastball: +15.1%
Ronel Blanco Curveball: +14.6%
David Festa Slider: -14.3%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -14.3%
David Festa Changeup: +14.0%
Ronel Blanco Slider: -13.6%
Frankie Montas Split-Finger: -13.4%
Luis Gil Slider: +13.4%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +13.1%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.9%
Roddery Munoz Cutter: -12.8%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Taijuan Walker Split-Finger: +12.6%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: -12.4%
Luis Gil Changeup: -12.3%
Osvaldo Bido 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Taijuan Walker Sweeper: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 39.6% CSW%
Blake Snell - 103 TBF, 37.2% CSW%
Spencer Arrighetti - 72 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Michael King - 71 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 100 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 74 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Logan Webb - 105 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Brant Hurter - 69 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 106 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 42.7% K%
Spencer Arrighetti - 72 TBF, 41.7% K%
Blake Snell - 103 TBF, 38.8% K%
Robbie Ray - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 91 TBF, 34.1% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Hunter Greene - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Bowden Francis - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Michael King - 71 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 37.3% K-BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - 72 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Bowden Francis - 68 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 103 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 74 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Ryne Nelson - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 76 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jose Soriano - 64 TBF, 65.8% GB%
Brant Hurter - 69 TBF, 64.7% GB%
Andre Pallante - 71 TBF, 63.5% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 74 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 81 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Tanner Houck - 104 TBF, 57.3% GB%
Grant Holmes - 80 TBF, 55.4% GB%
David Peterson - 99 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Max Fried - 92 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chad Kuhl - 46 TBF, 30.4 K%, 2.2 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Charlie Morton - 87 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
David Robertson - 43 TBF, 27.9 K%, 7.0 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 31.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 57.8% GB%
Gavin Stone - 84 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 44.6% GB%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 32.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Matthew Liberatore - 47 TBF, 38.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Michael King - 71 TBF, 32.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 74 TBF, 33.8 K%, 5.4 BB%, 59.1% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 91 TBF, 34.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 43.4% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Matt Waldron: 9.3 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
Patrick Corbin: 8.51 ERA, 4.57 SIERA
Nick Pivetta: 7.5 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
Nick Lodolo: 7.96 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
Garrett Crochet: 6.75 ERA, 3.24 SIERA
Max Meyer: 8.1 ERA, 4.68 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 7.2 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
Roddery Munoz: 7.82 ERA, 4.59 SIERA
Kyle Freeland: 6.66 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
Charlie Morton: 6.35 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
Luckiest
Javier Assad: 2.96 ERA, 5.45 SIERA
Logan Webb: 1.7 ERA, 3.8 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.45 ERA, 3.5 SIERA
Kevin Gausman: 3.21 ERA, 5.23 SIERA
Michael Wacha: 2.64 ERA, 4.65 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 2.05 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
Martin Perez: 2.17 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
Tobias Myers: 2.08 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
Bailey Ober: 1.91 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Aaron Nola: 3.12 ERA, 4.88 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Blake Snell - +6.0% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Zack Wheeler - +2.0% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Sean Manaea - +2.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Andrew Abbott - +2.8% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Martin Perez - +4.6% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
JP Sears - +3.1% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - +5.9% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Ryne Nelson - +3.4% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Bowden Francis - +3.5% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Albert Suarez - +2.8% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Joe Boyle - +2.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +8.4% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Chad Kuhl - +6.0% CSW%, -8.0 BB%
Justin Martinez - +2.4% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Ryan Pepiot - +3.8% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Brendan Donovan (STL) 3 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Heliot Ramos (SF) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Trey Sweeney (DET) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 113.9mph - nan
Trey Cabbage (HOU) - 113.3mph - nan
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.2mph - single
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 113.0mph - double
Tommy Pham (STL) - 112.9mph - single
Juan Soto (NYY) - 112.4mph - home_run
Riley Greene (DET) - 112.0mph - home_run
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 111.5mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 110.9mph - field_out
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 110.4mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Patrick Bailey - 56 PA, 0.08 wOBA, 0.244 xwOBA, 0.164 Diff
Lenyn Sosa - 56 PA, 0.145 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, 0.157 Diff
Logan O'Hoppe - 71 PA, 0.207 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, 0.112 Diff
Brandon Lowe - 75 PA, 0.286 wOBA, 0.387 xwOBA, 0.101 Diff
Miguel Vargas - 56 PA, 0.223 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, 0.096 Diff
Max Schuemann - 53 PA, 0.223 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Jonny DeLuca - 60 PA, 0.19 wOBA, 0.268 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff
Maikel Garcia - 66 PA, 0.257 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 60 PA, 0.297 wOBA, 0.363 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Luis Arraez - 71 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Bottom 10
Keibert Ruiz - 61 PA, 0.372 wOBA, 0.262 xwOBA, -0.11 Diff
Brendan Rodgers - 72 PA, 0.437 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Jake McCarthy - 77 PA, 0.431 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Gavin Sheets - 55 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Leo Jimenez - 53 PA, 0.394 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Tyler Fitzgerald - 86 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 81 PA, 0.448 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.083 Diff
TJ Friedl - 74 PA, 0.353 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Daulton Varsho - 74 PA, 0.362 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 71 PA, 0.274 wOBA, 0.197 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 70 PA, 44 BIP, 13 Brls, 29.5 Brl%
Juan Soto - 79 PA, 52 BIP, 13 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 60 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 60 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Jake Burger - 85 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 53 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 47 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 69 PA, 57 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.3 Brl%
Luke Raley - 48 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Leo Jimenez - 53 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 70 PA, 0.54 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 60 PA, 0.524 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 79 PA, 0.508 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 80 PA, 0.486 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 71 PA, 0.464 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 60 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 81 PA, 0.458 xwOBA
William Contreras - 76 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 85 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 79 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 71 PA, 134 Swings, 96.3 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 118 Swings, 94.1 Cont%
Ryan O'Hearn - 46 PA, 91 Swings, 93.4 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 63 PA, 108 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 57 PA, 92 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 61 PA, 126 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Anthony Rendon - 44 PA, 76 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 70 PA, 136 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 60 PA, 100 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 77 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Luis Robert - 6 Attempts (3 steals)
Brice Turang - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Josh Lowe - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Spencer Steer - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Caballero - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Altuve - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jonny Deluca - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Parker Meadows - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Taylor Walls - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Xavier Edwards - 17 Attempts (17 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 15 Attempts (15 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
Jose Caballero - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Luis Robert - 12 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Jarren Duran - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
James Wood - 9 Attempts (4 steals)
Taylor Walls - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
David Hamilton - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Brice Turang - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Josh Lowe - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Tyler Fitzgerald - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Bregman - 60 PA, 11.7 K%, 18.0 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 81 PA, 13.6 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Corey Seager - 79 PA, 19.0 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 69 PA, 11.6 K%, 19.3 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 60 PA, 16.7 K%, 22.9 Brl%
Juan Soto - 79 PA, 13.9 K%, 25.0 Brl%
Manny Machado - 73 PA, 13.7 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 80 PA, 7.5 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 121 PA, +0.141 xwOBA
Matt Wallner - 81 PA, +0.121 xwOBA
Jorge Soler - 94 PA, +0.11 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 122 PA, +0.105 xwOBA
Joey Bart - 96 PA, +0.104 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 124 PA, +0.097 xwOBA
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 84 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Jackson Chourio - 112 PA, +0.089 xwOBA
Michael Toglia - 108 PA, +0.088 xwOBA
Yainer Diaz - 116 PA, +0.088 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Matt Wallner - 81 PA, +12.4 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 103 PA, +11.1 Brl%
Juan Soto - 124 PA, +8.4 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 121 PA, +8.3 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 99 PA, +7.6 Brl%
Logan O'Hoppe - 100 PA, +7.2 Brl%
Geraldo Perdomo - 108 PA, +7.1 Brl%
Michael Toglia - 108 PA, +6.8 Brl%
Manny Machado - 109 PA, +6.6 Brl%
Elly De La Cruz - 114 PA, +6.4 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Ryan O'Hearn - 88 PA, +12.5 Cont%
Joey Bart - 96 PA, +11.6 Cont%
Michael Massey - 80 PA, +10.0 Cont%
Eugenio Suarez - 119 PA, +9.8 Cont%
Nick Castellanos - 105 PA, +8.9 Cont%
Jake McCarthy - 107 PA, +8.5 Cont%
Freddy Fermin - 87 PA, +8.5 Cont%
Gleyber Torres - 112 PA, +8.5 Cont%
Matt Wallner - 81 PA, +8.2 Cont%
Aaron Judge - 114 PA, +7.8 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 84 PA, -13.9 K%
Nick Castellanos - 105 PA, -11.6 K%
Shea Langeliers - 87 PA, -10.5 K%
Brent Rooker - 100 PA, -10.4 K%
Ceddanne Rafaela - 114 PA, -10.0 K%
Masyn Winn - 118 PA, -9.7 K%
Joey Bart - 96 PA, -9.5 K%
Eugenio Suarez - 119 PA, -8.9 K%
Jo Adell - 99 PA, -8.5 K%
Cal Raleigh - 105 PA, -8.5 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
George Springer - +3.9% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -10.0 Chase%
J.D. Martinez - +8.9% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -10.8 Chase%
Trea Turner - +5.6% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -6.1 Chase%
Bryce Harper - +3.9% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -4.8 Chase%
Korey Lee - +5.4% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -8.8 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Aaron Judge - 0.522 xwOBA, 28.2% Brl%, 83.1% Contact%, 23.3% Chase%, 20.3% K%
Carlos Santana - 0.403 xwOBA, 11.9% Brl%, 81.4% Contact%, 21.1% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Corbin Carroll - 0.419 xwOBA, 16.3% Brl%, 77.6% Contact%, 22.6% Chase%, 19.7% K%
Joc Pederson - 0.478 xwOBA, 17.9% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 24.8% Chase%, 15.2% K%
Juan Soto - 0.502 xwOBA, 22.7% Brl%, 76.3% Contact%, 15.5% Chase%, 10.9% K%
Masataka Yoshida - 0.409 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 87.2% Contact%, 23.8% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Michael A. Taylor - 38.2% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.966 Cold Rating
Christopher Morel - 41.3% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.952 Cold Rating
Victor Robles - 34.0% Whiff%, 77.4% Weak%, 0.922 Cold Rating
Anthony Volpe - 31.9% Whiff%, 86.2% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating
C.J. Abrams - 31.5% Whiff%, 81.8% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
Kyle Stowers - 36.0% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Luke Raley - 37.7% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Zack Gelof - 39.0% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 28.4% Whiff%, 77.1% Weak%, 0.822 Cold Rating
Logan O'Hoppe - 37.1% Whiff%, 65.2% Weak%, 0.801 Cold Rating
Minor League Reports
Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday
Jake Rucker (MIN): 3/6, 2R, 2HR, 6RBI, 0SB, 41FPts
Heriberto Hernandez (TB): 3/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Trevor Hauver (TEX): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Carson McCusker (MIN): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Diego Castillo - 660636 (MIN): 2/4, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 30FPts
Ivan Melendez (ARI): 4/5, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 29FPts
Maximo Acosta (TEX): 3/4, 2R, 0HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 29FPts
Deyvison De Los Santos (MIA): 3/4, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
J.J. D'Orazio (ARI): 2/5, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
Jax Biggers (TEX): 3/5, 3R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Bailey Dees (NYY): 90 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 10K, 5BB, 32FPts
Trenton Denholm (CLE): 87 Pitches, 8IP, 1H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 32FPts
Jack Leiter (TEX): 75 Pitches, 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 9K, 1BB, 29FPts
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL): 87 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 0ER, 7K, 1BB, 29FPts
Tyler Stuart (WSH): 95 Pitches, 6IP, 1H, 1ER, 6K, 0BB, 28FPts
Spencer Giesting (ARI): 95 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 8K, 3BB, 27FPts
Tyler Schweitzer (CWS): 86 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 0ER, 6K, 1BB, 27FPts
Daniel Lynch (KC): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 2ER, 8K, 2BB, 26FPts
Adam Mazur (MIA): 74 Pitches, 6IP, 1H, 0ER, 4K, 0BB, 24FPts
Kumar Rocker (TEX): 70 Pitches, 4IP, 3H, 0ER, 8K, 1BB, 24FPts
AA-AAA OPS Leaders
Deyvison De Los Santos (AAA - MIA) 463 PA 1.001 OPS
Coby Mayo (AAA - BAL) 350 PA 0.967 OPS
Kyle Manzardo (AAA - CLE) 330 PA 0.95 OPS
Keston Hiura (AAA - LAA) 364 PA 0.943 OPS
Nick Allen (AAA - OAK) 361 PA 0.926 OPS
Jimmy Crooks III (AA - STL) 345 PA 0.921 OPS
Jason Vosler (AAA - SEA) 433 PA 0.92 OPS
Jordan Diaz (AAA - OAK) 383 PA 0.913 OPS
CJ Alexander (AAA - KC) 345 PA 0.913 OPS
Pedro Leon (AAA - HOU) 432 PA 0.904 OPS
Ryan Ward (AAA - LAD) 413 PA 0.904 OPS
Tirso Ornelas (AAA - SD) 433 PA 0.903 OPS
Dalton Rushing (AAA - LAD) 394 PA 0.902 OPS
Colby Thomas (AAA - OAK) 470 PA 0.899 OPS
Ryan Noda (AAA - OAK) 381 PA 0.895 OPS
Jose Rojas (AAA - PIT) 321 PA 0.893 OPS
Ruben Cardenas (AAA - PHI) 322 PA 0.889 OPS
Carson Taylor (AA - PHI) 377 PA 0.885 OPS
Andrew Navigato (AAA - DET) 409 PA 0.884 OPS
Tyler Locklear (AAA - SEA) 413 PA 0.884 OPS
AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders
Shane Smith (AA - MIL) 82 IP 22.7% K-BB
Bubba Chandler (AAA - PIT) 93 IP 22.3% K-BB
Brandon Young (AAA - BAL) 85 IP 21.8% K-BB
Ian Seymour (AAA - TB) 117 IP 21.6% K-BB
Tyler Stuart (AAA - WSH) 112 IP 21.6% K-BB
Brady Basso (AAA - OAK) 82 IP 21.5% K-BB
Thomas Harrington (AAA - PIT) 85 IP 21.5% K-BB
Robinson Pina (AAA - PHI) 105 IP 21.3% K-BB
Carson Palmquist (AA - COL) 97 IP 21.2% K-BB
Noah Cameron (AAA - KC) 99 IP 21.1% K-BB
Troy Melton (AA - DET) 92 IP 20.8% K-BB
Yilber Diaz (AAA - ARI) 91 IP 20.7% K-BB
Aaron Brown - 676345 (AA - HOU) 87 IP 20.2% K-BB
Caden Dana (AA - LAA) 129 IP 19.6% K-BB
Chayce McDermott (AAA - BAL) 97 IP 19.3% K-BB
Mason Barnett (AA - OAK) 113 IP 18.9% K-BB
Lael Lockhart (AAA - DET) 95 IP 18.9% K-BB
Alex Pham (AA - BAL) 101 IP 18.5% K-BB
Carson Ragsdale (AAA - SF) 104 IP 18.5% K-BB
Ty Madden (AAA - DET) 96 IP 18.5% K-BB
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
LAA - 117.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
CHC - 111.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
STL - 105.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
LAD - 104.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
WSH - 103.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
CLE - 87.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIA - 87.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
PIT - 88.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
NYY - 88.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
SD - 89.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
Jeffrey Springs (47.0% Owned): Projected 5.65IP 2.28ER 6.81SO 1.71BB 19.15FPts
Spencer Arrighetti (43.0% Owned): Projected 5.39IP 2.57ER 6.2SO 2.29BB 16.04FPts
Osvaldo Bido (21.0% Owned): Projected 5.22IP 2.23ER 5.52SO 2.18BB 15.32FPts
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Jhonkensy Noel - 29 PA, 1.254 OPS
Gavin Sheets - 28 PA, 1.131 OPS
Ramon Laureano - 35 PA, 1.045 OPS
Ramon Urias - 29 PA, 1.039 OPS
Trevor Larnach - 26 PA, 0.968 OPS
Ernie Clement - 35 PA, 0.951 OPS
Austin Martin - 28 PA, 0.929 OPS
Keibert Ruiz - 27 PA, 0.926 OPS
JJ Bleday - 35 PA, 0.923 OPS
Spencer Horwitz - 37 PA, 0.887 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Spencer Horwitz 1B (10.0% Owned): Projected 0.57R 0.14HR 0.58RBI 0.64SO 0.43BB 0.04SB 7.8FPts
Alex Call CF (17.0% Owned): Projected 0.64R 0.09HR 0.5RBI 0.62SO 0.52BB 0.13SB 7.79FPts
Daulton Varsho C (43.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.15HR 0.51RBI 0.9SO 0.42BB 0.13SB 7.73FPts
Brendan Rodgers 2B (22.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.13HR 0.47RBI 0.6SO 0.27BB 0.03SB 7.61FPts
Will Wagner 2B (5.0% Owned): Projected 0.55R 0.11HR 0.57RBI 0.64SO 0.53BB 0.05SB 7.52FPts
Travis d'Arnaud C (13.0% Owned): Projected 0.5R 0.18HR 0.6RBI 0.88SO 0.18BB 0.02SB 7.5FPts
Austin Wells C (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.52R 0.14HR 0.65RBI 0.84SO 0.51BB 0.04SB 7.41FPts
Lars Nootbaar RF (21.0% Owned): Projected 0.5R 0.14HR 0.51RBI 0.87SO 0.56BB 0.08SB 7.41FPts
Ramon Laureano RF (4.0% Owned): Projected 0.58R 0.15HR 0.49RBI 1.14SO 0.2BB 0.08SB 7.38FPts
Michael Toglia RF (31.0% Owned): Projected 0.51R 0.2HR 0.56RBI 0.99SO 0.28BB 0.05SB 7.36FPts
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get everything I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.