MLB Daily Notes - August 23rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Lots and lots of stuff going on today so these notes will be more brief.
Pitchers - Yesterday
Zac Gallen was terrific against the Rangers, who have now lost six games in a row! This was after that very bad start from Gallen when he pitched bad but had the luckiest start of the last three years and put up a pretty good box score result. Last night:
6 IP, 7 R, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB
The 17.8% SwStr% was great, and he earned a strike 53.5% of the time. Good stuff from Gallen, who continues to bounce around between being “good” and “great”.
The Rangers are the 3rd-toughest matchup in the league by points scored per inning against them, but in August they’re down to 13th. They’re hitting .255/.332/.449 since the all-star break for a .782 OPS. For the year their team OPS is .796 - so it’s been a bit of a down-tick, but I still wouldn’t want to start mediocre pitchers against them, obviously.
Jesus Luzardo had a bounce-back start after a run of horribleness. He faced off against the guy he was cloned from and went
6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB
He still had a pretty high Ball% at 39% but he threw strikes when he needed.
The other volatile lefty on that mound last night, Blake Snell, had another elite SwStr% at 22.9%, but yet another 40% Ball% - but just two walks. Similar starts for both of those two - lots of whiffs, lots of balls, but not a lot of walks.
The projections were right on the money with the Lucas Giolito love, although he did benefit from four unearned runs. But he struck out nine on a 22% SwStr%. The Reds are an offense to attack on the road, and they haven’t been all that great at home either. In the second half, since all of these rookies landed and got in the lineup - the Reds:
.228/.395/.406, .701 OPS, 27.6% K%, 7.1% BB%
That’s not a very good lineup, and only six teams have a lower OPS (MIL, MIA, CLE, NYY, CWS, SF).
On the other side of Giolito was Graham Ashcraft who stole the show with some of his best work of the season. He struck out 10 in seven innings with a 13.8% SwStr%. That’s not an elite SwStr%, but it was much-improved for him.
It wasn’t a different pitch mix, just more effective - and benefited from some called strikes. I think Ashcraft is fine in deeper leagues, but he’s not really going to suddenly be a high strikeout pitcher - the slider just isn’t good enough.
Adam Wainwright is giving us consistency, we have to give him credit for that. Two whiffs on 69 pitches and he gave up six earned runs to the Pirates. I wonder if they’ll let him finish the year. What a strange situation to be in. A franchise icon in your last year, but clearly the worst pitcher in the league. What do you do? You don’t want to quit early, the team isn’t going to cut you or something, but they don’t really want to waste a roster spot either by sending him to the bullpen or something - and that would be pretty insulting as well.
The good news is that the Cardinals aren’t in contention, so it’s probably the right thing to just let him stay in the rotation if that’s what he wants. The guy has done a lot for you, throw him the bone here - he’s earned it.
But if this was a playoff team, man I don’t know what they’d do. Mutual agreement for him to just retire early and then immediately come back as a pitching coach/advisor or something?
Jon Gray blew chunks again with a 9.6% SwStr% and he gave up four earned runs on seven hits in four innings. I should give up on him, but I’m not going to!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zac Gallen (vs. TEX): 32.7 Points
2. Justin Verlander (vs. BOS): 31.9 Points
3. Jesus Luzardo (vs. SD): 29.7 Points
4. Graham Ashcraft (vs. LAA): 29.55 Points
5. Lucas Giolito (vs. CIN): 25.3 Points
6. Johan Oviedo (vs. STL): 20.25 Points
7. Blake Snell (vs. MIA): 18.7 Points
8. Zack Greinke (vs. OAK): 17.8 Points
9. Bryce Elder (vs. NYM): 16.99 Points
10. Taijuan Walker (vs. SF): 16.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell (SD): 22 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
2. Lucas Giolito (LAA): 22 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
3. Bobby Miller (LAD): 20 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
4. Justin Verlander (HOU): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
5. Zac Gallen (ARI): 16 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 14 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
7. Reese Olson (DET): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Kyle Harrison (SF): 14 Whiffs (65 Pitches)
9. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
10. Bailey Ober (MIN): 13 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bobby Miller (LAD): 56.7 Strike%, 22.7 Ball%
2. Zack Greinke (KC): 54.7 Strike%, 28.3 Ball%
3. Justin Verlander (HOU): 54.2 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
4. Zac Gallen (ARI): 53.3 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
5. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 53.2 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
6. Kyle Harrison (SF): 52.3 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
7. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 51.2 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
8. Ty Blach (COL): 50.6 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
9. Reese Olson (DET): 50.5 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
10. Mike Clevinger (CWS): 50.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
11. Lucas Giolito (LAA): 50.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
12. Zack Littell (TB): 50.0 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
13. Noah Syndergaard (CLE): 49.5 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
14. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 48.9 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
15. Jon Gray (TEX): 48.2 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Grayson Rodriguez didn’t keep the velocity up from last time:
But still, 97.5 on the fastball is no issue. He had a bad 11.7% SwStr%, but once again got through a quality start - although it was a pretty weak one:
6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 2 BB
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tylor Megill's SL velo (31 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 86.4
Hogan Harris's CH velo (22 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 82.2
Bailey Ober's CH velo (21 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.2
Lucas Giolito's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.6
Adam Wainwright's FF velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.5
Adam Wainwright's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 70.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Angel Zerpa's FF usage (45.2%) up 13.0 points
Angel Zerpa's CH usage (35.5%) up 19.4 points
Bobby Miller's FF usage (43.3%) up 19.4 points
Bryan Woo's FC usage (23.1%) up 14.2 points
Bryce Elder's FF usage (26.7%) up 14.7 points
Johan Oviedo's FF usage (52.6%) up 15.8 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (55.4%) up 21.2 points
Josiah Gray's SI usage (46.5%) up 29.1 points
Justin Verlander's FF usage (62.5%) up 12.2 points
Lucas Giolito's CH usage (42.0%) up 18.3 points
Mike Clevinger's SL usage (40.2%) up 11.9 points
Noah Syndergaard's FF usage (27.4%) up 10.4 points
Reese Olson's FF usage (40.2%) up 11.1 points
Tanner Houck's SI usage (43.5%) up 17.5 points
Tylor Megill's SL usage (32.6%) up 11.9 points
Wade Miley's FF usage (33.7%) up 11.3 points
Zack Greinke's FC usage (18.9%) up 11.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bryce Miller Sinker: +20.8%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.6%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -20.5%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -19.0%
Jon Gray Slider: +18.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -18.0%
JP Sears Slider: +17.9%
Johan Oviedo 4-Seam Fastball: +17.6%
Ryan Walker Slider: +17.4%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -17.4%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +17.0%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +16.3%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +16.3%
Kenta Maeda 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.8%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -15.6%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -15.6%
Logan Webb Changeup: +14.8%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +14.1%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -14.1%
Austin Gomber Slider: +13.9%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -13.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -13.3%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.1%
Patrick Sandoval Sinker: +12.9%
Logan Webb Sinker: -12.9%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Reese Olson - 84 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 101 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Julio Urias - 91 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 68 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 69 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 78 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Adrian Houser - 89 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 42.9% K%
Cole Ragans - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0% K%
Sonny Gray - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Max Scherzer - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%
Zac Gallen - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Nick Pivetta - 80 TBF, 31.2% K%
Chase Silseth - 68 TBF, 30.9% K%
Brandon Williamson - 91 TBF, 30.8% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 35.7% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 96 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Brandon Williamson - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 101 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 72 TBF, 23.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 107 TBF, 63.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 72 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Max Fried - 91 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 97 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Brayan Bello - 71 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 58.6% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 98 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 89 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Watch out for Brandon Williamson here. He’s recently gained velocity and now he’s on the MFQ?
First 13 starts:
10.2% SwStr%, 45.1% Strike%, 17.8% K%, 10% BB%, .361 xwOBA
Last 4 starts:
11.5% SwStr%, 49.6% Strike%, 30.8% K%, 5.5% BB%, .275 xwOBA
What a change. Looks like he might be benefiting from scrapping the slider in favor of changeups:
His changeup for the year has a 20.9% SwStr%, but he doesn’t command it super well with a 37% Strike%, but clearly hitters are fooled by it - so that’s a very good change for Williamson and it has worked out magnificently for him lately. That’s a sneaky guy to pickup in deeper leagues for the stretch run - he just might have figured something out here.
Zack Thompson also has an 18:2 K:BB in his last three starts and the pitch count came up to 82 last time out. He’s a bit of a DFS darling to use right now as he’s been priced under $6,000 and has a non-pitiful 11.6% SwStr% on the year. He’s been earning more strikes lately. He’s not a guy to add in fantasy - but again, someone to consider on DFS slates.
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Williamson - 91 TBF, 30.8 K%, 5.5 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Cole Ragans - 101 TBF, 32.7 K%, 7.9 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.0 K%, 4.9 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Gavin Williams - 66 TBF, 39.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Julio Urias - 91 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.2 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Michael King - 48 TBF, 35.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 75 TBF, 29.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 27.4 K%, 3.6 BB%, 58.6% GB%
Sonny Gray - 101 TBF, 31.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zac Gallen - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Zack Thompson - 57 TBF, 31.6 K%, 3.5 BB%, 54.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Mitch Keller - +4.5% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Julio Urias - +2.9% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Adrian Houser - +7.6% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Sandy Alcantara - +3.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +4.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Dane Dunning - +4.2% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Pablo Lopez - +2.1% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Jake Irvin - +3.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Ken Waldichuk - +4.2% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +5.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Kenta Maeda - +2.1% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Michael King - +6.9% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Andy Ibanez (DET) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Harrison Bader (NYY) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Marcus Semien (TEX) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Max Muncy (LAD) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Ildemaro Vargas, Yesterday: 111.0 Previous High: 109.4
Hardest Hit Balls
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 114.1mph - foul
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 114.1mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.9mph - double
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 113.4mph - home_run
Jordan Walker (STL) - 113.0mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 112.7mph - nan
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 111.7mph - home_run
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 111.6mph - nan
Ildemaro Vargas (WSH) - 111.0mph - single
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 110.5mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Juan Soto - 81 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.383 xwOBA, 0.13 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 62 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, 0.124 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 82 PA, 0.298 wOBA, 0.401 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff
Francisco Alvarez - 60 PA, 0.202 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.344 wOBA, 0.433 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Bryan De La Cruz - 69 PA, 0.265 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Ketel Marte - 74 PA, 0.217 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 0.327 wOBA, 0.393 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Salvador Perez - 72 PA, 0.344 wOBA, 0.408 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 70 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.352 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Bottom 10
Johan Rojas - 60 PA, 0.343 wOBA, 0.206 xwOBA, -0.137 Diff
Cody Bellinger - 72 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, -0.133 Diff
Kerry Carpenter - 76 PA, 0.533 wOBA, 0.405 xwOBA, -0.128 Diff
Elvis Andrus - 66 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, -0.117 Diff
Jose Altuve - 84 PA, 0.44 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, -0.117 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 65 PA, 0.359 wOBA, 0.244 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Mike Moustakas - 63 PA, 0.362 wOBA, 0.257 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Jake Burger - 79 PA, 0.422 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 91 PA, 0.385 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Keibert Ruiz - 70 PA, 0.44 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 71 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Spencer Torkelson - 80 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Max Kepler - 59 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 79 PA, 48 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 79 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 77 PA, 56 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 52 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 72 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 88 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Nolan Jones - 73 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Mookie Betts - 77 PA, 0.482 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 74 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Ty France - 84 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 76 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 97 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 73 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Spencer Torkelson - 80 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 83 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 59 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Keibert Ruiz - 70 PA, 118 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 49 PA, 82 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 69 PA, 118 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 82 PA, 152 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 91 PA, 168 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 72 PA, 138 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Tommy Edman - 79 PA, 122 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 58 PA, 91 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 62 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Michael Massey - 83 PA, 165 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Jose Caballero - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Chas McCormick - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Drew Waters - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Gleyber Torres - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Brice Turang - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Daulton Varsho - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Sal Frelick - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Akil Baddoo - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Matt McLain - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Marcus Semien - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 14 Attempts (10 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 14 Attempts (10 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Altuve - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Caballero - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
TJ Friedl - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
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