MLB Daily Notes - August 25th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Pitchers - Yesterday
Merrill Kelly continued his great season, and the Reds offense continued to be exploited.
7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 12 K, 0 BB, 20.9% SwStr%, 62.8% Strike%
SIXTY-THREE PERCENT STRIKE RATE! That was the seventh-highest of the season:
Again, Strike% is the % of your pitches that go for a
Called Strike
Swinging Strike
Foul Ball
I would say the goal of every single pitch is to earn a strike, and Kelly did that just insanely well last night.
Kelly has really taken himself to a new level this year with a 27% K% and a 13.5% SwStr%, both of those marks just crush what he had done in the past.
Kelly now has a 3.10 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and he’s the #20 SP on the player rater. He would be several slots higher if he hadn’t missed a few starts to injury. The league leader right now has 27 starts, and Kelly is at just 23. He’s been phenomenal and probably one of the most valuable fantasy assets in the game this year given his ADP.
The Reds offense, meanwhile:
Season: .249/.326/.413, .740 OPS, 24.4% K%
Since June: .242/.321/.428, .749 OPS, 24.7% K%
Since July: .235/.311/.414, .725 OPS, 26.4% K%
In August: .230/.303/.409, .712 OPS, 28.4% K%
Here are their main hitter stats since in the second half:
Lots of struggles for the young guys. Elly, McLain, CES, and Benson all have very (if not egregiously) high strikeout rates, although McLain and Benson have been able to put up solid OPS marks despite that. I have both of those guys on my home league fantasy team… which makes me nervous heading toward the playoff. It’s probably time to bail on Benson.
As a fantasy baseball “analyst”, the goal is to predict the future better than other people do. That gives us the incentive to pick out these breakout players before everyone else does. It’s usually guesswork, and it always deal with small sample sizes which should never be trusted. That’s just the nature of it, if you’re going to be FIRST you have to deal with a short-sample because otherwise everybody else will just see the big sample and know the guy is breaking out!
My latest pontification has been Brandon Williamson. I picked him out two days ago, recommended a stream yesterday, and then he delivered six scoreless innings with six strikeouts, so I am feeling GOOD about it. So let us REVIEW.
A couple of weeks ago the notes told us that Williamson ditched his slider. We can see that in the P Usage tab of the dashboard:
Any time a guy just outright stops throwing a pitch he was previously throwing ~20% of the time, that deserves a look - because it basically makes the guy a whole new pitcher. So then, we can look at his stats just since this change. July 17th was the last time he threw it, so here’s what it looks like since July 18th (from the MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard):
That 18.6 K-BB% is up a ton from the 8.5% mark he had prior.
More stats from the main dashboard - pitchers tab:
The SwStr% is still low, which is a dagger. I really, really don’t like pitchers with SwStr% under 11%. And it’s not like it’s up a bunch from previously either (10.3% before July 18th). But he’s earned significantly more strikes (45.2% Strike% → 47.9%), so it’s been a good change in that regard - and more strikeouts have followed thus far.
Here is the pitch mix stuff since he ditched the slider:
72% fastball usage, but it’s split pretty evenly between a four-seamer and a cutter. The four-seamer has been quite bad, but the cutter has been very good (62% Strike% is elite). And the changeup is very good - and has been all year.
So the change was to mix up these fastball variations to keep hitters off balance and then do damage with the changeup. It’s worked great so far, but I’m skeptical of the hot run because of that low SwStr%, and that’s not even to mention the 39% GB% - which is not what you want to see for a guy in Cincinnati. But I’ll hold him for another start or two, or at the very least I’ll be watching. He’s a good add in deep leagues where you’re hurting for pitching - I’m sure a lot of you are in that position right now and Williamson is widely available.
Brayan Bello continues to flummox us. He gave up nine hits and three walks yesterday but somehow got through seven innings on one run with that. The SwStr% was awful at 6.8% and he went for a 4:3 K:BB.
I queried every start this year where a pitcher gave up 11, 12, or 13 H+BB and found 325 results. The average earned runs allowed in that sample is 5.2.
Only 10 of the 325 (3% for those of you keeping track at home) gave up fewer than two earned runs.
THAT SAID, Bello wasn’t as lucky as you might think by the way we like to look at it. He gave up a .350 actual wOBA but just a .363 expected. Neither of those is good, but he did avoid the hard-hit ball at least - so there was some good BABIP luck on the Diamondbacks’ side here as well, but also some good fortune with scattering the hits and stranding runners.
So I was wrong about Bello earlier, he’s definitely not anywhere near a fantasy ace, and the SwStr% and K% have been bad all year - it doesn’t look like he’s really ready for the fantasy spotlight. Sorry!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Merrill Kelly (vs. CIN): 39.15 Points
2. Kyle Gibson (vs. TOR): 27.8 Points
3. Brandon Williamson (vs. ARI): 21.3 Points
4. Ryan Pepiot (vs. CLE): 21.2 Points
5. Patrick Corbin (vs. NYY): 19.5 Points
6. Brayan Bello (vs. HOU): 18.55 Points
7. Jason Adam (vs. COL): 18.5 Points
8. Justin Steele (vs. PIT): 16.7 Points
9. Peter Lambert (vs. TB): 16.25 Points
10. Josh Winder (vs. TEX): 15.55 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 18 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
2. Peter Lambert (COL): 14 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
3. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
5. Gavin Williams (CLE): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 12 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
7. Justin Steele (CHC): 12 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
8. Jesse Scholtens (CWS): 10 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
9. Kyle Gibson (BAL): 10 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 10 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 62.8 Strike%, 25.6 Ball%
2. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 59.2 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
3. Peter Lambert (COL): 53.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
4. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 50.0 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
5. Jose Berrios (TOR): 49.4 Strike%, 22.8 Ball%
6. Justin Steele (CHC): 48.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
7. Michael King (NYY): 48.0 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%
8. Gavin Williams (CLE): 47.9 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
9. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 46.9 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
10. Brandon Bielak (HOU): 43.8 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
11. Jesse Scholtens (CWS): 42.9 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
12. Kyle Gibson (BAL): 42.1 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
13. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 41.8 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
14. Andre Jackson (PIT): 41.8 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
15. Ryan Yarbrough (LAD): 41.8 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Not really much to talk about in this section.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (35 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.2
Jose Berrios's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.8
Jose Berrios's FF velo (18 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 95.9
Kyle Gibson's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 87.1
Merrill Kelly's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andrew Heaney's SL usage (38.2%) up 14.0 points
Brandon Bielak's FF usage (48.2%) up 19.3 points
Brandon Williamson's FC usage (43.9%) up 12.2 points
Gavin Williams's SL usage (32.3%) up 11.7 points
J.P. France's CU usage (23.5%) up 10.4 points
Jose Berrios's SI usage (40.5%) up 11.5 points
Michael King's SI usage (52.0%) up 21.8 points
Peter Lambert's SL usage (31.3%) up 11.4 points
Ryan Pepiot's FF usage (61.8%) up 11.1 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CU usage (38.2%) up 12.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bryce Miller Sinker: +20.8%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.6%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -20.5%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -19.0%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -18.4%
Jon Gray Slider: +18.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -18.0%
JP Sears Slider: +17.9%
Johan Oviedo 4-Seam Fastball: +17.6%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +17.0%
Noah Syndergaard 4-Seam Fastball: +16.3%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +16.3%
Jose Urquidy 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.8%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -15.6%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -15.6%
Logan Webb Changeup: +14.8%
Luis Severino Cutter: +14.6%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +14.1%
Cole Ragans Slider: +13.5%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -13.3%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -13.3%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.1%
Patrick Sandoval Sinker: +12.9%
Logan Webb Sinker: -12.9%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -12.7%
Austin Gomber Slider: +12.4%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Cole Ragans and Gavin Williams on top of the K% leaders - who saw that coming!?
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Julio Urias - 73 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Gavin Williams - 90 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 74 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 79 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Reese Olson - 84 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 76 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Merrill Kelly - 118 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 83 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Chris Bassitt - 74 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 37.5% K%
Gavin Williams - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Nick Pivetta - 83 TBF, 32.5% K%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Merrill Kelly - 118 TBF, 31.4% K%
Zac Gallen - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Mitch Keller - 74 TBF, 31.1% K%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 30.9% K%
Zack Thompson - 75 TBF, 30.7% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Gavin Williams - 90 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Zack Thompson - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 96 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 74 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Merrill Kelly - 118 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
Dane Dunning - 76 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
Brandon Williamson - 97 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 72 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 83 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Max Fried - 91 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 72 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Dane Dunning - 76 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 77 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 113 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 113 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 100 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Williamson - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 4.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Clarke Schmidt - 63 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 37.5 K%, 7.3 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Dane Dunning - 76 TBF, 28.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Gavin Williams - 90 TBF, 34.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Julio Urias - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 1.4 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Justin Steele - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 118 TBF, 31.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 49.3% GB%
Michael King - 54 TBF, 33.3 K%, 7.4 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zac Gallen - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Zack Thompson - 75 TBF, 30.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Gibson - +3.5% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Dane Dunning - +4.2% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Mitch Keller - +4.8% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Julio Urias - +5.6% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Jake Irvin - +3.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +5.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.5% CSW%, -6.4 BB%
Jhony Brito - +4.6% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.4% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Jakob Junis - +5.0% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Hitters
Rooker is benefitting from positive variance right now.
And shit, ESPN called it! I made fun of them for saying Stanton was “due”, but it turns out - he was!
Patrick Corbin will help you get out of a slump, but credit where credit is due - I made fun of someone for saying something dumb but the dumb thing they said was right - which makes it not dumb after all! I’m a firm believer in post-hoc judgment. I’m not one of these “your process was wrong” bros, if you make a prediction and it’s right - you were right. You were right, ESPN.
Multiple Barrels
Brent Rooker (OAK) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nolan Jones (COL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Royce Lewis (MIN) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shea Langeliers (OAK) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Josh Palacios, Yesterday: 109.6 Previous High: 109.4
Noelvi Marte rocked a ball at 111.7mph. He has just 16 MLB PAs now, so we can’t really say anything about him, but we can say that not everybody in the league is capable of hitting a ball above 111 miles per hour.
In fact, only 220 hitters have gone above 111 this year, while 621 hitters have put a ball in play. PYTHON CODE:
That’s about a third, although it’s not very fair because I’m sure there are some guys in that 621 that could go above 111 but just haven’t put enough balls in play to do it. But whatever, Noelvi Marte can hit the ball hard - there ya go #analysis.
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 118.6mph - single
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 114.1mph - grounded_into_double_play
Royce Lewis (MIN) - 114.0mph - home_run
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 113.3mph - single
Everson Pereira (NYY) - 111.8mph - double
Noelvi Marte (CIN) - 111.7mph - double
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 111.6mph - nan
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 111.3mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 111.3mph - single
Josh Lowe (TB) - 111.2mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jose Ramirez - 63 PA, 0.231 wOBA, 0.364 xwOBA, 0.133 Diff
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 0.231 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, 0.116 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 81 PA, 0.278 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, 0.104 Diff
Francisco Alvarez - 59 PA, 0.179 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Bryan De La Cruz - 69 PA, 0.226 wOBA, 0.316 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 71 PA, 0.251 wOBA, 0.341 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Alec Bohm - 77 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 74 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.398 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Randal Grichuk - 68 PA, 0.184 wOBA, 0.263 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Salvador Perez - 67 PA, 0.331 wOBA, 0.394 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Bottom 10
Kerry Carpenter - 77 PA, 0.544 wOBA, 0.385 xwOBA, -0.159 Diff
Connor Joe - 58 PA, 0.456 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, -0.128 Diff
Elvis Andrus - 72 PA, 0.404 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, -0.125 Diff
Cody Bellinger - 71 PA, 0.419 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Jose Altuve - 86 PA, 0.45 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 66 PA, 0.365 wOBA, 0.249 xwOBA, -0.116 Diff
Adam Duvall - 67 PA, 0.42 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
TJ Friedl - 70 PA, 0.363 wOBA, 0.263 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Elehuris Montero - 60 PA, 0.312 wOBA, 0.217 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Nolan Jones - 78 PA, 0.421 wOBA, 0.327 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Times are good for Bryce Harper right now
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Bryce Harper - 74 PA, 47 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.7 Brl%
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 64 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Nolan Jones - 78 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 84 PA, 48 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 70 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 73 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Josh Palacios - 53 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 54 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Mookie Betts - 73 PA, 0.473 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 0.471 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 82 PA, 0.467 xwOBA
Bryce Harper - 74 PA, 0.465 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 73 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Ty France - 81 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Julio Rodriguez - 80 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Stone Garrett - 57 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 82 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Keibert Ruiz - 72 PA, 122 Swings, 91.8 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 72 PA, 137 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 76 PA, 124 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 82 PA, 160 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Pablo Reyes - 69 PA, 102 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Lars Nootbaar - 49 PA, 62 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 75 PA, 158 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Tommy Edman - 77 PA, 120 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 52 PA, 85 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 86 PA, 159 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Jose Caballero - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Matt McLain - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Daulton Varsho - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Will Brennan - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Drew Waters - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Rojas - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Elvis Andrus - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Sal Frelick - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Pablo Reyes - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Brice Turang - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Zach McKinstry - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Akil Baddoo - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Noelvi Marte - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Julio Rodriguez - 15 Attempts (11 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 14 Attempts (13 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Jose Caballero - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Jose Altuve - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
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